Who wants my NBA plays?

**TakeIt** · 06-17-10, 10:58 AM

Originally posted by Foals

My local is giving me Lakers -4.5 (-110) should I jump on it?

of course. then bet boston +7 and hope for the 2 and a half point middle.

**TakeIt** · 06-17-10, 10:58 AM

...

**DEGENR8** · 06-17-10, 11:38 AM

May wait till 2h for a giant play, this one is so hard to read. I think the refs are just going to let this one play itself out.

**JR007** · 06-17-10, 11:42 AM

Hey Goatie; Alls quiet in your thread lately.....guess your "lemmings" finally jumped ship after being "waxed" by the "experts"..picks.....post up so I can fade........last game

**JR007** · 06-17-10, 11:57 AM

SHARPS FOCUSED ON KENDRICK PERKINS AS THEY TAKE THEIR POSITIONS
Sharps (professional wagerers) are very good when it comes to making decisions on the fly. They were confronted with that after Tuesday Night's sixth game of the NBA Finals when they had to decide what to do about Game Seven.
Normally, sharps would look at Game Six loser to bounce back strong, particularly if a good team was basically taking a night off (and, 67 points can be called a night off!). With the Lakers closing at either 6 or 6.5 in Game Six, that would have suggested a drop down to 5 or 5.5 in Game Seven.
But, with Kendrick Perkins out, sharps knew they wanted to take an early position on the Lakers.

Injured players, even if they're not stars, are worth SOMETHING, and advantage players always bet injury news as soon as they can before taking stock a bit later when the rest of the market acts.
Squares (the public) love betting the Lakers, and would be even more likely to do that with Perkins out. I've mentioned often that Vegas and Reno are virtual suburbs of LA in terms of betting interest. If the squares were going to hit LA, sharps wanted to be there early to set up a middle. If sharps change their mind later and decide they want Boston even without Perkins (or, on the off-chance he can come back), sharps can shoot their middle. They have the Lakers minus a low number, Boston plus a higher number, and they cash both tickets if the game lands in between. As I've discussed with you during football season, a lot of early betting action is "position taking" to set up these kinds of possibilities rather than endorsements of a favorite.

Sharps can always come back over the top on the underdog Celtics for a bigger bet if they think the line has moved too far toward the Lakers. They have one unit on the Lakers at the opener, they can put two units on the Celtics against the late line.
Oddsmakers tried to play mind games as best they could when it was time to put lines on the board. Many places opened the game at Lakers -7 (about 1½ points from where it would normally be if Perkins was certain to play). Some early action drove the line to -7½. Boston money started coming in at that time to bring the number back down to seven.
What's going to happen on Game Day? Depends on the public. I expect a possible tug-of-war with the squares betting the Lakers, and the sharps taking Boston at anything over +7. Some squares did take the Lakers to win the series up front, and there's no reason for them to lay seven points when they have the game with a moneyline at pick-em already! Lakers fans who didn't bet up front will likely be coming in all day to bet on Kobe. We'll just have to let it play out.
My read on the sharps is this:

Those who like the Lakers either had them at a series price, or bet the Game Seven opener to take a position. They're DONE betting barring some big development (like a key Celtic catching the flu or something).
Those who like Boston got some money down at +7½ when they saw it, and are waiting to see if they can get more than seven points again on game day. I have to admit though that much of the potential Boston money may stay on the sidelines with the Perkins injury. I heard a lot of sharps mumbling "Boston is in big trouble if Perkins is out" the other night. Should the public come in heavily on the Lakers, some of that money may come off the sidelines at higher numbers.
On the total, the late steam has taken a bad hit the last two games because some sharps got it in their heads that the Lakers were going to run the ball. That led to a 10½-point loss against the closer in Game Five, and a 34-point loss against the closer in Game Six. Historically, sharps play the Under in seventh games. We're not seeing that yet with a total of 187 as this article goes to press. Sharps generally aren't very happy with their totals results in this series, and may not bet serious action here. Those who have been riding Unders the whole way will probably do that again.

**dume walker** · 06-17-10, 01:08 PM

Just heard on the local news here in LA courtside seats are going for $80,000. Contact StubHub if you want to get in your bid.

**JC 420** · 06-17-10, 01:10 PM

what do u like jr007 in the game side & total?

**JC 420** · 06-17-10, 01:11 PM

did lakerboy post a play 4 2nites game?...i didnt catch it

**spider1usa** · 06-17-10, 01:12 PM

good luck tonight im pumped for the last day of the nba season

**JR007** · 06-17-10, 02:16 PM

Originally posted by JC 420

what do u like jr007 in the game side & total?

Do not know yet JC...just posting stuff I find on-line....that i think has value....from what these articles tell me...games 5,6,7 defense..under...7 a "key" number.........3 possession game.....I signed on to learn from you guys...and to have some fun......there is some good one-liners in here...

**suicidekings** · 06-17-10, 02:54 PM

Originally posted by Foals

My local is giving me Lakers -4.5 (-110) should I jump on it?

Ask him if he's taking heavy action on Boston first. Is he a sharp guy?

**Davex1990** · 06-17-10, 02:56 PM

Getting closer to game time

**Lanncer** · 06-17-10, 04:03 PM

Leaning more and more toward the Lakers

**DEGENR8** · 06-17-10, 04:14 PM

Alright guys, let talk turkey. Can LA cover, what will be o/u, and tt's?

**Raadmand** · 06-17-10, 04:26 PM

what is your leans LB ? or have there been posted any bet yet ?

**jaymac82980** · 06-17-10, 04:31 PM

Make some money and take the Celtics tonight. The Celtics moneyline is looking pretty good too. No sense wasting your cash on the lakers, they made people money last game, tonight the celts win it all.

**Goat Milk** · 06-17-10, 04:33 PM

Originally posted by jaymac82980

Make some money and take the Celtics tonight. The Celtics moneyline is looking pretty good too. No sense wasting your cash on the lakers, they made people money last game, tonight the celts win it all.

**JR007** · 06-17-10, 04:47 PM

Any Lean so far SK ?????????

**vitalogist** · 06-17-10, 05:36 PM

Paco, you making a small play on boston +7, or just riding out your 25x lakers series -110 like me???

**JC 420** · 06-17-10, 05:37 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Do not know yet JC...just posting stuff I find on-line....that i think has value....from what these articles tell me...games 5,6,7 defense..under...7 a "key" number.........3 possession game.....I signed on to learn from you guys...and to have some fun......there is some good one-liners in here...

thanks 4 the articles there r really helpful i alread got lakers for the series im also gonna make a parlay lakers -7 & under.....good luck

**JC 420** · 06-17-10, 05:38 PM

Originally posted by vitalogist

Paco, you making a small play on boston +7, or just riding out your 25x lakers series -110 like me???

i think hes just riding it out for lakers to win the series 4 him

**I am Happy** · 06-17-10, 05:40 PM

Interesting night fellas...its been a nice season on this thread & the other... good luck to all and win or lose go out with a bang...

I am Happy

**vitalogist** · 06-17-10, 05:41 PM

Under looks good. Elimination games trend that way, and the last four games have been low scoring. I'm playing the under, and looking at the HT line....

**anjaru** · 06-17-10, 05:53 PM

Game definitely looks to be under. Only thing I'm afraid of is frustration fouls with 5 mins left when the Celtics realize they are down by 18.

**Goat Milk** · 06-17-10, 05:58 PM

good luck all with your plays tonight i won't be here for the game.

No Coincidence- no negativity, its a 48 minute game.

**No coincidences** · 06-17-10, 06:01 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

good luck all with your plays tonight i won't be here for the game.

No Coincidence- no negativity, its a 48 minute game.

Did you play my MLB games last night?

**suicidekings** · 06-17-10, 06:05 PM

Originally posted by JR007

Any Lean so far SK ?????????

Just a few Boston futures that I'm considering partially hedging out of, but not at -320... I'm hoping patience pays off this time.

**Goat Milk** · 06-17-10, 06:07 PM

Originally posted by No coincidences

Did you play my MLB games last night?

na I didn't even check Paco's thread until later on at night I completely forgot I asked you guys for plays. I saw you went 5-1 though, very nice.

SK, Lakers ML -285 (5 dimes reduced juice).

**shoebox** · 06-17-10, 06:07 PM

to all!

Gl!

**DEGENR8** · 06-17-10, 06:14 PM

Originally posted by shoebox

to all!

Gl!

Boston to all or good luck to all?

**suicidekings** · 06-17-10, 06:23 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

na I didn't even check Paco's thread until later on at night I completely forgot I asked you guys for plays. I saw you went 5-1 though, very nice.

SK, Lakers ML -285 (5 dimes reduced juice).

Huge improvement, but i just get the impression that this game will be closer than game 6, and I'll likely have a better opportunity at some point in the first half. 90 minutes to go. GL tonight Goat.

**D3 Mighty Ducks** · 06-17-10, 06:27 PM

Where LB today?

**refrain87** · 06-17-10, 06:35 PM

LB isnt playing anything today.

**sweetjones55** · 06-17-10, 06:37 PM

Good luck on your plays tonight.

**WIZARDOFBEANTOWN** · 06-17-10, 06:41 PM

He played la in the series