SuicideKings NBA Dec 2009

egr99 · 12-26-09, 10:49 AM

suicide, just stumbled on your thread. I am also working on 1Q/1H side/total... Any suggestions... Still in the very early stages... just looking for "value" from my line against books lines at the moment. You got any suggestions/tips on what to look at?

egr99

suicidekings · 12-26-09, 03:04 PM

Originally posted by egr99

suicide, just stumbled on your thread. I am also working on 1Q/1H side/total... Any suggestions... Still in the very early stages... just looking for "value" from my line against books lines at the moment. You got any suggestions/tips on what to look at?

egr99

The main things I look for are identifying when teams that are prone to fast / slow starts meet, and games where the spread for the full game is creating a weak spot in the 1Q/1H line. For example, a team might be a +7 dog for the game, but be a much better 1Q team that's getting 1Q +2 due to the influence of the full game line. The books have to set 1Q/1H lines in proportion to the full game lines, and that's where the opportunities arise.

To do all this, you need stats broken down like the ones I posted above. I generate them from collecting game data and post the summaries periodically. Having your own data is way better, as you can do a lot more with it. Hope that helps.

egr99 · 12-26-09, 03:40 PM

Sounds good, thats one thing I had in mind. Same philosophy as you, the 1Q especially seem to be more vulnerable. Right now I am just creating a line for the side & total and if the "real" line is much different I make it a play. Still got alot of work to do & will start keeping some more detailed stats from here on forward. Interesting thing is right now my totals are falling almost identical to the books lines in 80-85% of the games.

egr99

Jiggy Fly · 12-26-09, 04:10 PM

Great Thread SK. Just poppin in here for the first time. Do you know where I can find ATS results for Q's and H's?

suicidekings · 12-26-09, 08:21 PM

Originally posted by Jiggy Fly

Great Thread SK. Just poppin in here for the first time. Do you know where I can find ATS results for Q's and H's?

You can't. You have to generate them yourself.

suicidekings · 12-27-09, 02:47 PM

I don't have any of my stats/sims with me today. I feel like there's a couple of plays that look great though...

Leaning towards:

Cavs -8
Pacers +8

SaffaCappa · 12-27-09, 02:55 PM

Like the Pacers +8, could be a close low scoring game

suicidekings · 12-27-09, 03:09 PM

Booked:

Pacers +8 (-103) x2.5
Clippers +8.5 (-107) x2.5
Knicks ML (+137) x1

LaiLai · 12-27-09, 03:16 PM

which of the 3 are u most confident??" i'm quite into clippers +8.5

suicidekings · 12-28-09, 06:42 PM

12/28 Booked Plays

CHR -4 (-105) x2.5
WAS ML (+189) x1.25
LAL ML (-114) x2.5
SAC ML (+100) x2.5
POR -6 (-104) x2.5

I also really think OKC covers the spread tonight, but with the huge public swing on them and others strongly behind NJ, I'm passing.

darkenergy · 12-28-09, 07:32 PM

SK,
What's the stats on Celts 3rd quarter????
Thinking about taking Boston 3rd q -1.5 BIG tonight.....can you help?
Thanks

darkenergy · 12-28-09, 07:41 PM

I found that Celts doing terrible after a SU loss....and these are against sh*tty teams like NYK, T'woes, NJN.
The play has no value man.

suicidekings · 12-28-09, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by darkenergy

SK,
What's the stats on Celts 3rd quarter????
Thinking about taking Boston 3rd q -1.5 BIG tonight.....can you help?
Thanks

They're nothing special in the 3Q (+2.2pts). I'd say the biggest value in Q/H plays in that game are BOS 1H -3 and 1H over 106.

darkenergy · 12-28-09, 08:12 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

They're nothing special in the 3Q (+2.2pts). I'd say the biggest value in Q/H plays in that game are BOS 1H -3 and 1H over 106.

Thanks SK. I've decided to go with GSW 3q +1.5 for 3x (this is a purely gamble play, as I don't know how Celts will handling the 1H). If BOS fell short big in 1H (7-9 or more), I probably hedge back my play.

suicidekings · 12-29-09, 02:02 PM

12/29 Booked Plays

Cavs ML (+123) x2.5
OKC ML (-106) x2.5
NOH +5.5 (-102) x2.5

williams22 · 12-29-09, 02:03 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

12/29 Booked Plays

Cavs ML (+123) x2.5
OKC ML (-106) x2.5
NOH +5.5 (-102) x2.5

Nice to see someone else on the Cavs tonight. GL to you sir

suicidekings · 12-29-09, 02:30 PM

Originally posted by williams22

Nice to see someone else on the Cavs tonight. GL to you sir

Thanks! And to you as well.

williams22 · 12-29-09, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Thanks! And to you as well.

suicidekings · 12-30-09, 04:58 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

12/29 Booked Plays

Cavs ML (+123) x2.5
OKC ML (-106) x2.5
NOH +5.5 (-102) x2.5

The Hornets should have covered last night... It would have given me a sweep, but i'll take the 2-1 night. I played the NOH 2H pk for 1.25u which fortunately cut my losses (forgot to post).

lakerboy · 12-30-09, 05:03 PM

Hornets was pure bullshit. I still havent gotten over that one. I had that game capped out as a New Orleans win. It was one of my surest plays in ages.

Fukkin Rockets hit all their 3's in first half or they would have lsot. Anyways whats your fav play tonight suicide. Im likin g Bucks a little bit.

suicidekings · 12-30-09, 05:18 PM

12/30 Booked Plays

TOR -5.5 (-107) x2.5
NJN ML (+121) x2.5
PHI ML (+117) x2.5

I really like all three of these plays. The books are baiting huge public action with the soft NYK & SAC lines. Toronto has been playing MUCH better defensively recently and I think they should handle the Bobcats easily tonight.

Leans: Hornets, CHR/TOR Under, Hawks ML (gametime decision)

suicidekings · 12-30-09, 05:29 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

Hornets was pure bullshit. I still havent gotten over that one. I had that game capped out as a New Orleans win. It was one of my surest plays in ages.

Fukkin Rockets hit all their 3's in first half or they would have lsot. Anyways whats your fav play tonight suicide. Im likin g Bucks a little bit.

Couldn't agree more. That 4th quarter was painful to watch...

The Magic offense is messed up right now. Carter is shooting too much and Howard isn't being aggressive. However defensively, I think Howard can handle Bogut, and Bogut is critical to the Bucks success so I don't really have a strong lean on that game.

suicidekings · 12-31-09, 01:05 AM

Originally posted by suicidekings

12/30 Booked Plays

TOR -5.5 (-107) x2.5
NJN ML (+121) x2.5
PHI ML (+117) x2.5

2-1 (+3.3u)

suicidekings · 12-31-09, 12:58 PM

There's nothing enticing about tonight's card at all.

I'm leaning towards Houston, Detroit, OKC, Philly & Miami, but have no legitimate angles on any game large enough to pull the trigger. I think I;m just going to take the day off and enjoy the night.

GL to everyone and be careful with this card. Happy New Years!!

freddues · 12-31-09, 02:13 PM

I guess you missed the Jazz/OKC OVER. Got it at 197 last night. Big value here!

suicidekings · 12-31-09, 04:35 PM

Originally posted by freddues

I guess you missed the Jazz/OKC OVER. Got it at 197 last night. Big value here!

IMO, you're on the wrong side of that...

suicidekings · 12-31-09, 04:36 PM

Watching the lines has convinced me on the Rockets.

HOU ML (+104) x3

TGoat · 12-31-09, 08:58 PM

Originally posted by suicidekings

Watching the lines has convinced me on the Rockets.

HOU ML (+104) x3

What was it about the line move that sold you on Houston?

suicidekings · 12-31-09, 09:48 PM

Houston is the definition of a live dog. I capped this game out as a pk, so the combination of the 77% of bettors on Dallas and the tight line screamed SU win for the Rockets to me.