SuicideKings NBA Dec 2009

[suicidekings]

My first thread is getting a bit cumbersome, so I've started a new one for December. Original thread can be viewed here.

So far this season, my progress has been mixed. Twice I've built my BR up by almost 20 units, only to then lose most of it back to the books. Part of this is because I've been experimenting with different methods, and part of it's because I've been sloppy at times. Hopefully I can smooth things out in December and maintain my progress. I keep detailed records of my wagers and have the results broken down into ~20 different sub-groupings, so I know where I've had the most success and where I need improvement. The most notable ones are listed below.

NBA 2009: 117-119-3 (49.58%) (+4.93u)
1Q/1H Spreads: 55-36-1 (59.8%) (+21.33u)
Overs / Unders: 20-16-1 (54.1%) (+4.93u)
Parlays: 3-7-0 (30.0%) (+4.53u)
Full Game Spreads: 24-30-0 (44.4%) (-8.74u)
Full Game Moneylines: 12-20-0 (37.5%) (-1.56u)
Second Half Wagers: 10-16-1 (37.0%) (-11.83u)
Records current through December 2, 2009

This is my first season betting more than just casually in the NBA (I've been betting hockey and baseball for a couple of years), and I'm definitely still learning. My objective for the first two months of the season is to develop and define the strategies that work best for me while working with a smaller betting unit, and then increase my unit size for January. When posting plays, I'll do my best to justify them with analysis/stats (time permitting) and welcome any commentary/criticism on them.

Good luck to everyone in December. With just 3 weeks until Christmas, let's get to work on our sportsbooks paying for our Christmas presents...

[suicidekings]

1Q / 1H / 2H / GM Projected Stats

A big part of my game is betting 1Q/1H spreads. There are a lot of mixed opinions on them, but I feel like they are generally more predictable than full games, as so many teams are better in one part of the game, and weaker in another. Most teams have particular tendencies in different parts of the game, and vary when they're at home or on the road.

Throughout the thread, I'll be referring to 1Q/1H/2H/GM ATS stats that are projected from current season data. They may not exactly correspond with actual quarter/half ATS performance this season, but I believe them to be a reasonably accurate substitute.

To make these projected stats, I've built myself a model that incorporates a database of scoring for all games this season, broken down by quarter. For a particular matchup at a given spread, I project what each team's ATS performance would have been in all of their games this season at that spread (separately for road/home). I then use these projected ATS stats and each team's average scoring for and against to pick my plays for 1Q/1H.

For example, on 12/2, PHX at CLE was a very lopsided 1Q matchup. At the available CLE 1Q -2 line, each team's ATS performance for this season going into this game was:

PHX (on the road): 4-8 (-3.9 pt differential in 1Qs)
CLE (at home): 6-2 (+6.3 pt differential in 1Qs)

A fair line for the 1Q would have actually been CLE 1Q -4.5

I'll typically be posting these stats with my 1Q/1H plays, and just thought I'd give a quick explanation as to where they come from. I've found them very useful so far this season.

[suicidekings]

12/3 Booked Plays

BOS +2 (-117)
BOS/SAN OVER 186.5 (-105) x2
BOS/SAN 1H OVER 95 (-105)

I make a fair line for this game to be SAN -0.5. The teams are actually quite even, stats-wise. However, Boston excels as a team overall because they step up their game for the tough opponents. There's really not much more to say about the game. I'm taking the points and the better team.

As for the total, I make a fair total out to be 194.5. This matchup features two extremely capable, defensive teams with explosive offensive weapons. Whenever teams like this face off, I feel like the total for the game is often placed lower than it should be. In this case, BOS & SAN's average closing O/U and final game scores are:

BOS (road): 186.5 & 189
SAN (home): 196.5 & 202.5

Both teams average a higher final total score than the opening O/U line. Both teams will be aggressive to start the game, and I expect a higher scoring 1H than 2H, pushing the total over.

[Razz_Donkey]

New thread for December? Really like Boston too, probably going to be on it.

[suicidekings]

New thread for December? Really like Boston too, probably going to be on it.

Yeah, I thought I'd decorate the place up with some red and green (hopefully a lot more green).

I actually LOVE the BOS/SAN and MIA/DEN matchups today. I think they're both going to be amazing games. The HOU/GSW doesn't do anything for me though.. at all.

GL tonight.

[suicidekings]

12/3 1Q / 1H Plays

MIA 1Q +2.5 (-105) (x2)
MIA 1Q ML (+162)
MIA 1H +5 (-107)
_____________________________________

1Q Breakdown
MIA is a great 1Q road team, and Denver is weak in the 1Q at home.

MIA (+2.5): 5-1 ATS, (+5.2pts in 1Qs on the road, scoring 27.3pts, allowing 23.2pts)
DEN (-2.5): 2-7 ATS, (-1.6pts in 1Qs at home, scoring 26.9pts, allowing 28.4pts)

A fair line would be MIA -2.5 for the first quarter.

1H Breakdown
My lean on the 1H isn't nearly as strong, however I expect this game to be close at the half. The line available at Pinnacle was actually MIA +4.5 (+103) so I bought it up to +5 (-107).

MIA (+5): 4-2 ATS, (-2.8pts, scoring 49pts, allowing 51.8pts)
DEN (-5): 3-6 ATS, (+4.4pts, scoring 60.1pts, allowing 55.7pts)

A fair line would be DEN 1H -2.5 for the first half.

2H Breakdown
The stats swing heavily into Denver's favour for the 2H. Straight up in second halves:

MIA (pk): 3-3 SU, (+1.7pts, 49.0pts scored, 47.3pts allowed)
DEN (pk): 8-1 SU, (+9.0pts, 57.4pts scored, 48.4pts allowed)

Disregarding game momentum, a fair 2H line would be no less than DEN -3.5.

GM Breakdown

MIA (+8.5): 5-1 ATS (-1.2pts, 98 pts for, 99.2 pts allowed)
DEN (-8.5): 7-2 ATS (+13.4pts, 117.6pts for, 104.1 pts allowed)

Fair line: DEN -7.5

I'll be looking for a line on live betting that's more favourable than the DEN -8.5 currently available, assuming Miami gets the fast start I'm predicting. Conversely, if you like Miami, by buying 2 points up to MIA +10.5, you're reducing Denver's ATS edge down to 5-4.

[suicidekings]

12/3 Play for Fun

4 TM Teaser (4.5/6.5pt) (+300) x0.25
- BOS +6
- BOS/SAN OVER 181.5
- DEN -4
- MIA/DEN UNDER 216.5

4 TM Parlay (+1305) x0.25
- BOS ML
- BOS/SAN OVER 188
- DEN -8.5
- MIA/DEN UNDER 210

If both hit, I'm up 4.01u.
If the teaser covers, but the parlay loses, I'm up 0.5u
If both lose, I'm only down 0.5u

[suicidekings]

Celtics 2H ML (+141) x0.5

[suicidekings]

MIA 2H ML (+112)
UNDER 104 (-110)

Despite the difference in the score, Miami is only being outshot only by a small margin in FG%. It's been the fouls that have cost them, with Denver going 20/26 on FTs in the 1H.

[suicidekings]

12/3: 1-8 (-8.32u) ...Sigh...
ytd: 118-127-3 (-3.25u)

On to tomorrow.

[suicidekings]

There's a lot of promising games tonight, and I won't likely get to watch any of them, as I won't be at home, and being in Canada, Basketball is rarely televised...

CLE GM -12 (-102) x1
OKC GM +4 (-107) x1
LAL GM -11.5 (-103) x1
ATL GM -9.5 (-120) x1
UTA GM -7.5 (-112) x1
UTA 1Q -2 (-118) x1

BOS 1Q -1 (-115) x0.5
CLE 1Q -4 (-124) x0.5
CLE 1H -7 (-105) x0.5
ATL 1Q -3 (-115) x0.5
LAL 1Q -3.5 (-118) x0.5

MIL GM +4 (-105) x0.25
WAS GM -2.5 (-119) x0.25
DAL GM -5 (-113) x0.25
NYK/ATL UNDER 217 (-108) x0.25

TEASER (5 TEAM, 5 POINT) (+400) x0.5
- ATL -5.5
- OKC +9
- CLE -7.5
- UTA -3
- LAL -6.5

PARLAY (5 TEAM) (+2465) x0.25
- ATL -10.5
- OKC +4
- CLE -12
- UTA -8
- LAL -12

[suicidekings]

The line movement today is messed up... with 6 of 10 games showing at least 1 point of movement and heavy RLM on the Jazz, Hawks, and Bobcats. My projections for game spreads and totals lined up better today with the available lines than any other day so far this season (only the DET/MIL line off). Also, all of the full game spreads except for the MIN/NOH game are showing increased limits on max wager size at Pinnacle, which tells me:

a) The books have a lot of strong opinions and are expecting to have a HUGE day.
b) There's a good chance that not all line movements are what they appear to be.With a lot of very competitive matchups, the books are calling for the blitz today...

That being said, I really like a few games today, but rather than increase bet size on those games, I elected to reduce the size on the plays I'm less confident in.

Full Plays

Cavs
- I don't think I'm alone in thinking that the Bulls are going to have a hard time tonight. The Cavs have rounded into form and will be aggressive from start to finish. Chicago is still not playing with confidence on the road, and got away with one in Cleveland earlier in the year. I like the Cavs to start strong and build a big lead by halftime.

Hawks
- At +12.5, taking the Knicks might have had value, but the Hawks are going to win this game solidly. I played ATL -9.5, which I feel is a much more reasonable line for the game. The Hawks went through a little slump recently, but showed that they were back in form on Wednesday.

Jazz
- I love this matchup. The Jazz have been playing great recently, with Boozer on an absolute tear right now, shooting 72.8% from the field in his last 4 games (55.7% on the season) and leading the way for Utah. Okur and Kirilenko are having minor health issues right now, but the bench has been solid in stepping up. On the other side, don't confuse a JM win for Indiana in their last game with improvement. Their offense is inconsistent, but their defense is still allowing 108ppg on the road. For the 1Q, Utah is still undefeated in 1Qs at home (10-0) and outscore opponents by an average of 8.0 pts in the 1Q

Lakers
- Miami got beaten down badly last night, unable to penetrate Denver's small defense and unable to stop Denver's assault, despite the Nuggets being on a B2B from a blowout game. With Miami returning to sea level, also on a B2B, I don't see them faring any better against the Lakers.

Thunder
- Boston coming off a huge win last night, on the first half of a road B2B. The Thunder are well rested and will be pumped up for this game. Boston, despite winning last night were not dominant, and the Thunder will provide a much higher intensity matchup than the Spurs did. KD is establishing himself as an elite player in the NBA, scoring 25+ points in 15 of 18 games this year. I can see an outright win from the Thunder tonight.

Added to that, there's an 82-18 slant on the bets for Boston according to Sports Insights, but virtually no line movement...

[suicidekings]

Teaser / Parlay Combo

If both hit: +8.16u
If the teaser hits, but the parlay doesn't: +1.75u
If both miss: -0.75u

This is only the second of the parlay/teaser combos I've tried, and I'm going to make it a daily thing with my favourite plays of the day for a while to see how it performs.

[suicidekings]

I've been tracking certain ATS trends this season, and just for tracking purposes this is what they predict for tonight. None of my plays are based on these, but if they turn out to be useful at all I'll post the detais.

WAS -3.5
ATL -10.5
BOS -4
CLE -12.5
DAL / MEM - NO PLAY
DET -2.5
MIN +9
CHR -3.5
UTA -8.5
LAL -12.5

[suicidekings]

12/4: 4-12-0 (-3.22u) ...blerg...
YTD: 123-139-3 (46.95%) (-7.21u)

[suicidekings]

I've been tracking certain ATS trends this season, and just for tracking purposes this is what they predict for tonight. None of my plays are based on these, but if they turn out to be useful at all I'll post the detais.

WAS -3.5
ATL -10.5
BOS -4
CLE -12.5
DAL / MEM - NO PLAY
DET -2.5
MIN +9
CHR -3.5
UTA -8.5
LAL -12.5

4-4-1

[suicidekings]

Three plays I really like tonight, and a lot of potential for 2H plays.

UTA 1H -3.5 (-110) (bought 0.5pt)
PHX 1H -6.5 (-107)
HOU/POR Over 191 (-114)

[suicidekings]

ATS Trend Tracking (4-4-1)

12/5
PHI +5.5
TOR +6
MIN +7.5
DEN +4
PHX -11.5
LAC -2.5
ORL -9

[suicidekings]

Parlay (+273)
- atl/dal 1h under 101.5
- sac/phx 1h over 114

[suicidekings]

Tor 2h +8 (-112)

[suicidekings]

Parlay (+273) WIN
- atl/dal 1h under 101.5
- sac/phx 1h over 114

Wow... Buzzer beater to hit 115... That was tight...

[suicidekings]

TEASER (-110)
- ORL -4
- Under 229

[suicidekings]

12/5: 2-4 (-0.68u)
YTD: 125-143-3 (46.64%) (-7.89u)

I can live with this outcome today, with the Utah and Suns 1H plays missing by just 0.5 & 1.5pts, and the ORL under getting derailed by a 75pt 1Q. On to tomorrow.

[suicidekings]

ats trend tracking (4-4-1)

12/5
phi +5.5
tor +6
min +7.5
den +4
phx -11.5
lac -2.5
orl -9

12/5: 6-1
ytd: 10-5-1

[suicidekings]

The ATS trend tracking system mentioned above likes NJN, MIL, DET, SAC, & PHX for sunday. The system is just for fun at this point and picks do not constitute plays for me, but in this case, it agrees with all my leans for these games. So far, I've only booked:

NJN +5.5 (-112) x1.5
NJN ML (+177)

MIL +7.5 (-111) x1.5
MIL ML (+250)

[suicidekings]

CLE @ MIL

CLE (-7): 5-4 ATS (+3.1pts, 98.8pts for, 95.7pts allowed)
MIL (+7): 9-0 ATS (+6.3pts, 103.3pts for, 97.0 pts allowed)

[suicidekings]

12/6 Early Plays

NJN +5.5 (-112) x1.5
NJN ML (+177)
NJN 1Q +1 (+113) x0.5

MIL +7.5 (-111) x1.5
MIL ML (+250)

[darkenergy]

Wow, you actually like Mil will win outright? Some steel balls you got there bro.
GL

[suicidekings]

Wow, you actually like Mil will win outright? Some steel balls you got there bro.
GL

The Cavs on the road actually matchup very evenly with the Bucks at home. Cleveland playing their first game in a road trip on a sunday afternoon, following a couple of big wins against one of the best teams in the league and a local rival that just doesn't quit.

[suicidekings]

njn 2h +4.5 (-113)

[suicidekings]

CLE 1Q -2 (-116) x0.5
CLE/MIL 1H OVER 98 (+104) x0.5

[suicidekings]

It's UGLY in Miilwaukee right now...

[suicidekings]

LIVE: MIL +19 (during 2Q w/ 2min left) (+104)

MIA @ SAC
MIA 1Q pk (-105)
SAC 1H +0.5 (-112)
SAC GM +2 (-117)

[suicidekings]

Added Live:

DET -3 (-108) @ ~5:30 in the 1Q

[suicidekings]

det 2h -0.5 (-109)