**The Knuckleballers 2009-2010 NBA Season Computer Based System Tracking Thread**

[koby25]

Good luck

[ouman101]

Hey, just wanted to say I'm enjoying your picks! Keep them coming?

So what constitutes a 4 unit or 5 unit pick? Also, I think you mentioned that you use your program to make the picks, but sometimes in your description it sounds like you use some of your personal opinion as well. Are the picks completely decided by your program, or is there some human element to it as well?

[TheKnuckleballer]

I will update my record later this evening. Unfortunately, none of tonights games fit the model. Stay tuned for tomorrow's picks and GL to those that take a shot at tonight's card. In my opinion, there is no value on the card tonight. GL!!!!

ouman- In order for it to be a 1, 2, or 3 Unit Pick there is little to any human element involved. In order for it be elevated to a 4 or 5 Unit Pick there is a slight human element involved in the technical and fundamental analysis of trends and strengths v. weaknesses. Thus, you see very few games elevated to 4 and 5 Unit Picks. The 1,2, and 3 Unit Picks are determined by a statistical model that utilizes regression to the mean and the odd lot theory. Hope this helps you a little bit. GL tonight!!

koby- Thanks for the kind words. GL to you as well!!!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (27-29) +5.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (7-3)*** +11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks (15-11)** +5.8 Units
*1 Unit Picks (5-15)* -11.5 Units

Total Unit Record (56-46)
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.90%)

Sorry I was unable to post yesterday, but the Holiday's are a busy time of the year with work, parties, etc... I love the Pacers tonight at +7.5 and the Under 205.5. I have this game capped at Pacers -1.5 with a total of 198. The Wizards are 0-6 ATS with 1 day of rest, which bodes well for the Pacers in this matchup. As for the Under 205.5, neither team is extremely efficient according to my rankings. I have the Pacers ranked #24 in efficiency and the Wizards ranked #18 in efficiency. Also, neither team averages over 98 points per game on offense. Below are my picks. GL and enjoy the hoops!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Pacers +7.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Pacers/Wizards Under 205.5
Blazers +4
Suns/Nuggets Under 226

*1 Unit Picks*
Suns +8.5

[incomeraise]

thanks and best of luck tonight

[BeatTheJerk]

This system isn't anything special thus far ....................

[incomeraise]

This system isn't anything special thus far ....................

wow, just give it time, i am liking it ,it seems like we are heading the right way.and as he said, the system gets stronger as the season goes.So lets see

[BeatTheJerk]

wow, just give it time, i am liking it ,it seems like we are heading the right way.and as he said, the system gets stronger as the season goes.So lets see

yeah no problem I'll follow it.

[incomeraise]

ended on the plus side... would have been better, i think u were on the right side with Portland.
It happens

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (30-31) +7 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (8-3)*** +14.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks (16-13)** +3.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks (6-15)* -10.5 Units

Total Unit Record (62-50)
Risk Adj. Winning % (55.36%)

I have two picks for today. I don't have time for write ups, but enjoy the picks and the NBA hoops today. GL !!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Grizzlies/Heat Over 195.5

*1 Unit Pick*
Spurs/Clippers Over 188

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (32-31) +10 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (8-3)*** +14.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks (17-13)** +5.4 Units
*1 Unit Picks (7-15)* -9.5 Units

Total Unit Record (65-50)
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.52%)

Below are the early picks. GL, and I will be back shortly w/ the late picks!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Pacers +12

**2 Unit Picks**
Pacers/Magic Under 207.5
Warriors +4

[og4667]

i am on pacers also, keep up the good work and lets cash!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are the late night plays:

**2 Unit Picks**
Thunder +10
Thunder/Nuggets Under 209
TWolves +13

[ouman101]

Great night! Loving the picks!

[incomeraise]

good job, ur system is picking up
also can u check ur pm

[og4667]

how bout them pacers. nice hit!!!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (37-32) +18.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (9-3)*** +17.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks (21-14)** +11.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks (7-15)* -9.5 Units

Total Unit Record (76-52)
Risk Adj. Winning % (59.38%)

We had a great night last night. Below are tonights picks. GL and enjoy the hoops action!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Spurs +2

*1 Unit Picks*
Raptors +7

[ouman101]

Any chance you can post your picks earlier in the day? No complaints if you can't...I know beggers can't be choosers. I'm just trying to tail some of your picks and I like to see your calculations. Thanks for all your picks thus far!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (37-34) +14.4 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (9-4)*** +13.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks (21-14)** +11.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks (7-16)* -10.6 Units

Total Unit Record (76-56)
Risk Adj. Winning % (57.58%)

Tonight, I have one 2 Unit Pick. I love the Knicks at +3. I have the Knicks winning this game by six points tonight. Here is some food for thought. The Bulls are 1-7-2 ATS with one day of rest and 3-6-2 ATS at home this season. Should be a good night to watch some hoops. GL!!!

OUMan- I will try my hardest to post earlier, but I make no guarantees right now. Too much to do, too little time. GL tonight!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Knicks +3

[ouman101]

No problem. As I said before, thanks for posting the picks! I'm enjoying seeing how the system is coming along.

[BeatTheJerk]

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (37-35) +12.2 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (9-4)*** +13.8 Units
**2 Unit Picks (21-15)** +9 Units
*1 Unit Picks (7-16)* -10.6 Units

Total Unit Record (76-58)
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.72%)

Below are tonight early picks. No time for write ups now, but I will be back shortly with the remainder of the picks. GL and enjoy the hoops!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Blazers +8.5
Clippers +3

*1 Unit Picks*
Jazz +2.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are the remainder of tonight's picks. We have a full card tonight that is full of winners. I love the Wizards tonight, despite the fact that this is their 4th straight road game and they are playing back to back games. I have this game capped at Suns -5. In their last 9 meetings, the road team is 8-1 ATS. Look for this trend to continue tonight as the game goes under the posted total of 218 and stays within the number. GL!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Wizards +10.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Kings/Bucks Under 209.5
Pacers +12
Wizards/Suns Under 218

*1 Unit Picks*
Hawks -4.5

[ouman101]

Knuckler- Got any picks tonight?

[TheKnuckleballer]

I will update my record tomorrow, but below I have tonight's two early picks. I will be back with my late night winners shortly. GL and Merry Christmas!!! I encourage everyone to enjoy this time of year with their family and friends. GL!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Warriors +10

*1 Unit Picks*
Rockets +8.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are the late night picks:

***3 Unit Picks***
Hawks +3.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Thunder +8.5
Thunder/Suns Under 212

*1 Unit Picks*
Blazers +11.5
Blazers/Spurs Over 187

[ouman101]

Merry Christmas to you too!

[maderpaker]

[Slanina]

Maybe do away with 1 unit plays, since your system says they aren't strong plays to begin with. And just go up to 4 units. With the 2 unit plays replacing the 1 unit plays. The overall record would be drastically better. But more importantly, the profit would be better. I'm sure it'll level off, but I don't see much profit being obtained with the current 1 unit plays.

[rfr3sh]

or reverse your 1 unit plays and youd be 16-7 ?

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (46-41) +14 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (9-6)*** +7.2 Units
**2 Unit Picks (27-17)** +16.6 Units
*1 Unit Picks (10-18)* -9.8 Units

Total Unit Record (91-70) +14 Units
Risk Adj. Winning % (56.52%)

Sorry I have been so inconsistent in posting my NBA picks early in the season. Now that college football is winding down, I should have more time to post day in and day out. Below are tonight's picks. Please be sure to check out my college football thread as well. I am 5-1 this bowl season with a 3 Unit Pick for tonight. GL and enjoy the hoops action!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Spurs/Knicks Over 198

**2 Unit Picks**
Rockets +8.5
Rockets/Cavs Over 192
Pacers +8

[TheKnuckleballer]

No time to update the record right now, but below are tonight's picks. I understand that the last few posts have been brutal, but there are ups and downs throughout the season. Remember this is a marathon not a sprint. GL and enjoy the games!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Knicks +4.5
Hornets/Rockets Over 193.5
Warriors/Lakers Under 217.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Thunder/Wizards Under 204
Pacers +6.5
Warriors +11.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Cavs/Hawks Over 193.5

[ouman101]

Knuckler you still making picks?

[SKiLLsSoLoN]

Nice system :P

[ouman101]

Hmm....I take it he gave up