**The Knuckleballers 2009-2010 NBA Season Computer Based System Tracking Thread**

[TheKnuckleballer]

Over the last four years, I have developed a computer based, statistical system designed to extrapolate value in Vegas’ lines. The system enables me to eliminate the lines that have little to any value and exploit the lines with a high probability of winning. Also, the system allows me to have an objective opinion and it mitigates the human element of handicapping. It is important for you to understand that this is a marathon not a sprint. My system gets stronger and stronger as the season wears on, because there is more and more relevant data to utilize. Also, money management is a key to long term success. My system does not produce “1000**** Triple Platinum Picks of the Century,” but it does produce consistent winners that help you add to your bankroll. Personally, I recommend a percentage based money management system where each unit equals .75% of your bankroll. Using this strategy it is important to recalculate your bankroll on a weekly basis. This means that your wagers increase or decrease relative to your bankroll, which allows you to capitalize on hot streaks and protect against cold spells. For tracking purposes, I will rate my picks on a 1 to 5 Unit basis with an assumed 10% vig added to all losses. Good luck to all and get used to winning on a consistent basis!

Stay “Sharp”
-The Knuckleballer

[whatsgood5]

Have this thread bookmarked now, GL

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (0-0)
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (0-0)
**2 Unit Plays** (0-0)
*1 Unit Plays* (0-0)

The time has come to begin posting my NBA System Picks on the forum. We now have stats from 10+ games in the computer and are ready to exploit these lines. The NBA provides a great opportunity due to the number of games played. One bad day won't break you and one good day won't make you. Remember this is a marathon not a sprint. Below are today's games. My only 3 Unit pick today is the Under in the Bulls/Nuggets game. Per my ratings, the Nuggets have the most efficient offense, while the Bulls have the most effective defense. The Bulls average only 90.6 points per game. I have the Bulls putting up 96 tonight with the total for the game being 197. GL and enjoy tonight's picks!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Bulls/Nuggets Under 208.5

*2 Unit Picks**
Kings +11
Pistons +8.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Bucks +3.5

[JP10]

Love yr system!! It's real nice

Thanks

[pockets89]

Great start knuckleballer you swept the board with your 4 picks!!! How has this system done in the past if you dont mind me asking?

[iceminers26]

Knuckleballer

Sweep

Good luck today bud

[bolekblues]

Wow! Incredible start!! I've been following your NFL plays, unfortunately they did not do too well last week... Hopefully, as you say, the further in the season the more accurate the lines will be

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (4-0) +8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-0) +3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (2-0) +4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (1-0) +1 Units

Yesterday was a great start to the season for me. Today's card is a little more complex, but we should be able to pick up some units. I love the Thunder tonight against the Lakers. The Thunder are 5-2 ATS after 1 day of rest. This is also a revenge spot for the Thunder after a 101-98 OT loss to the Lakers at home on 11/3/2009. Bynum is questionable for the Lakers. He accounts for almost 20% of the Lakers offense averaging 19.4 PPG and about 25% of their rebounding. This could spell trouble for the Lakers inside. Who fills the void? I predict a 98-97 game with either team winning. In reality, this game should be a pickem according to my system. GL and enjoy the picks!!

Bolekblues- Yea, sorry about last week in the NFL. That was brutal. Fortunately, NFL and College football combined I am up about 25 Units. I feel confident that the NFL system will pick as we get closer to the playoffs. GL and enjoy!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Thunder +10

**2 Unit Picks**
Pistons +10

*1 Unit Picks*
Pacers +1
Pistons/Suns Under 207.5
Thunder/Lakers Under 200

[venge]

*Ctrl-D*

good luck with your system. Hope you get it dialed in!

cheers

[EliteCapper]

GL

[djiddish98]

Just checked this thread after I posted up at mine. My system produced Thunder, Pistons and both unders as well. Also threw New Orleans in there at +10. What did your system think of that game?

Good luck!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Yesterday (1-4) -6.7 Units
Overall (5-4) +1.3 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-1) -.3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (2-1) +1.8 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (2-2) -.2 Units

Yesterday was ugly, but it's a long season. Hang in there and keep following. I don't have time for a writeup tonight, but here are my two NBA picks for this evening. GL and enjoy the basketball!

djddish- We got killed yesterday, but yes my system liked the Hornets as well. GL tonight and please stay in touch. I'm always interested in other people's systems.

**2 Unit Picks**
Kings +5.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Bucks +8.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are my early picks for tonight. I will be back in a moment to update my record and post my remaining picks. GL!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Pacers +5.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Pacers/Raptors Under 215

[TheKnuckleballer]

Yesterday (0-2) -3.3 Units
Overall (5-6) -2.0 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (1-1) -.3 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (2-2) -.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (2-3) -1.3 Units

Thus far, we have had an up and down start to the NBA season. Tonight could be a big night with a card full of live dogs. Some of these totals are way too high tonight as well. I love the Under in the Nets/Nuggets game tonight. The total is 203, but I have the total capped at 195. The Nets slow pace and inefficient should help keep the scoring down. Also, Lopez is questionable for the Nets tonight. Below are the remaining picks for tonight's games. GL and cheer on the dogs tonight!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Nets/Nuggets Under 203
Thunder +8

**2 Unit Picks**
Warriors/Mavs Under 217.5
Knicks +14
Knicks/Lakers Under 204.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Warriors +13

[djiddish98]

Great night - the one day I take off to tweak my model, everything hits!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Yesterday (6-2) +9.7 Units
Overall (11-8) +7.7 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-1) +5.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (5-3) +3.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-4) -1.4 Units

Last night was a great night with a lot of winners. Tonight, I will have no plays due to Thanksgiving. I am taking the night off to spend time with my family and prepare for company. GL, and I will be back later this week with more winners!!

Happy Thanksgiving!!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (11-8) +7.7 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (3-1) +5.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (5-3) +3.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-4) -1.4 Units

Tonight is a small card with a lot of plays. This is a card full of potential upsets. I have the Bobcats winning this game against the Wizards tonight by the narrowest of margins. I have the game capped as 94-92 win for the Bobcats. Per my ratings, the Bobcats have the most effective defense in the NBA, while both offenses are below average. This is my only 3 Unit Pick tonight. GL and enjoy the games!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Bobcats +3.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Blazers +5.5
Warriors +9
Lakers/Warriors Under 222

*1 Unit Picks*
Mavs +6.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (12-12) +3 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-1) +8.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (5-6) -3.2 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-5) -2.5 Units

Tonight, I have four picks. A small card tonight, but it provides us with a great opportunity to pad the bankroll for the remainder of the week. I like the Bucks tonight, but they are just a 1 Unit Pick due to some sketchy line movement. I have this game capped at Bucks -7. This is a revenge spot for the Buck after a close 83-81 loss to the Bulls on 11/3/2009. Also, Hinrich is out indefinitely with a sprained thumb. Will they miss his points? No, probably not, but they will miss his passing ability and the depth that he adds at the guard position. The Bucks should have little trouble with the Bulls at home tonight. GL and enjoy the picks!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Sixers '+11.5
Pacers '+2.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Bucks -3
Pacers/Warriors Under 228.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (1-3) -2.4 Units
Overall (13-15) +.6 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-1) +8.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (6-7) -3.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-7) -4.7 Units

Last night was a night of near misses. The Pacers looked to have the Warriors right where they wanted them, but the Warriors had a late second half surge that clinched the game and the cover. As for the Bucks, no comments necessary. Tonight, I love the Hornets against the Lakers. Per my Power Rankings, I have the Lakers at #13 and the Hornets at #20. That #13 ranking may seem low to some, but in my opinion the Lakers are relatively unproven this season. My system has this game capped at Lakers -6.5. This number seems much more accurate than Lakers -15. GL and enjoy the picks!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Suns/Knicks Under 227
Warriors +15
Hornets +15

*1 Unit Picks*
Warriors/Nuggets Under 234

[lakerboy]

Last Night (1-3) -2.4 Units
Overall (13-15) +.6 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-1) +8.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (6-7) -3.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-7) -4.7 Units

Last night was a night of near misses. The Pacers looked to have the Warriors right where they wanted them, but the Warriors had a late second half surge that clinched the game and the cover. As for the Bucks, no comments necessary. Tonight, I love the Hornets against the Lakers. Per my Power Rankings, I have the Lakers at #13 and the Hornets at #20. That #13 ranking may seem low to some, but in my opinion the Lakers are relatively unproven this season. My system has this game capped at Lakers -6.5. This number seems much more accurate than Lakers -15. GL and enjoy the picks!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Suns/Knicks Under 227
Warriors +15
Hornets +15

*1 Unit Picks*
Warriors/Nuggets Under 234

[mundane]

yeah i dont think lakers -6.5 is appropriate in any model this year against hornets. maybe u mean ~ against 2 years back hornets squad.

remember, there is no cp3 and peja for the hornets tonight!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Yes, the Lakers are unproven in my opinion. They have played 12 of their 16 games at home this season. That alone leads to an inflated 13-3 overall record. Against tough opponents they are average. Let me list their losses: Dallas, Houston, and Denver. That being said they have also beat Atlanta, Pheonix, Houston, and Oklahoma City (twice). In my opinion, this is a top 5 team, but they have not proven it yet. Should they win every night? NO!! Have they beat the teams they are expected to beat? YES!! Going forward, will they beat the top teams in the league on a consistent basis? I think so, but they have not proven it to me yet. All I am saying is that the jury is still out on the Lakers this season. We can revisit this topic in a month. GL tonight!!

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (2-2) +.7 Units
Overall (15-17) +1.3 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (4-1) +8.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (8-8) -1.6 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-8) -5.8 Units

Below are my early picks for tonight. I will be back momentarily with the rest of my picks. GL and enjoy the games!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Suns/Cavs Under 213
Bucks +3

*1 Unit Picks*
Suns +7.5
Knicks +12.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are the remainder of my picks for tonight. I love the Under at 215.5 in the Pacers/Kings game. I have the total capped closer to 205.5. That 10 point cushion should be enough to help us add 3 Units to the bankroll. Both defenses are in the bottom third of all NBA teams according to my ratings. This is a concern, but fortunately neither offense is too explosive. This is a matchup between two relatively even teams, and it should be a dogfight till the end. The spread is correct on this particular game, but looking at the big picture the Kings are the superior team. According to my Power Rankings the Kings are #16, while the Pacers are #25. The Kings could be scary when they get Kevin Martin back from his wrist injury, and I would not be suprised to see them move steadily upward in my Power Rankings. The Kings are definitely a team to watch as the season progresses. They have already covered 11 of their 16 games, which puts them on my radar going forward. GL and enjoy the hoops action!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Pacers/Kings Under 215.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Pistons +7.5
Pistons/Bulls Over 182
Rockets/Clippers Over 193

[TheKnuckleballer]

Last Night (3-5) +1.5 Units
Overall (18-22) +2.8 Units
*****5 Unit Plays***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Plays**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Plays*** (5-1) +11.7 Units
**2 Unit Plays** (10-8) +2.4 Units
*1 Unit Plays* (3-13) -11.3 Units

The 1 Unit Picks are killing us in the NBA. Going forward, I will make a concerted effort to better weed out the weakest 1 Unit Picks each evening. Tonight, I have 3 totals and 1 side. My strongest pick is the Celtics/Spurs Over 188. I have this total capped at 194.5. Per my ratings, both offenses are relatively effective with the Celtics having a #6 offensive ranking and the Spurs having a #11 ranking. Both teams enter this game averaging 100+ points per game. GL and enjoy the picks!! Please check back later, as I have a very important post regarding how I will be computing my winning % and why I will be computing it in that manner. Once again, GL to all!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Celtics/Spurs Over 188

**2 Unit Picks**
Heat/Nuggets Under 210.5
Rockets/Warriors Under 221

*1 Unit Picks*
Heat +9

[al_g]

thanks baller. good stuff i like this system. people like u are very helpful

[TheKnuckleballer]

I hope everyone is having a great day. I mentioned several days ago that I would be posting how I track my success and why I do it in that manner. I use the same method used by Dr. Bob, because I respect his long term track record of success and to be quite honest it is the only way that makes sense. In my opinion, a "Total Unit Based Record" must be used to compute your overall winning %. This means that higher unit picks are weighted more heavily than lower unit picks. For example, a 1 Unit win obviously counts as 1 win, while a 3 Unit win counts as 3 wins. Likewise, a 1 Unit loss counts as 1 loss, while a 3 Unit loss counts as 3 losses. This is the only way to truly track a handicappers success. Below is my updated record, which includes my "Total Unit Based Record" and winning %. GL and I will be back shortly with my NBA picks for today!!


Overall (20-24) +2.4 Units
5 Unit Picks (0-0)
4 Unit Picks (0-0)
3 Unit Picks (5-2) +8.4 Units
2 Unit Picks (12-8) +6.4 Units
1 Unit Picks (3-14) -12.4 Units

Total Unit Record (42-36)
Winning % (53.85%)

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (20-24) +2.4 Units
5 Unit Picks (0-0)
4 Unit Picks (0-0)
3 Unit Picks (5-2) +8.4 Units
2 Unit Picks (12-8) +6.4 Units
1 Unit Picks (3-14) -12.4 Units

Total Unit Record (42-36)
Winning % (53.85%)

I have three picks for tonight. My favorite pick is the under in the Suns/Lakers game. This is somewhat of a contrarian play, but my system has this total capped at 208.5. Also, 8 of the Suns 13 road games this season have gone under the posted total. Along with the total, I also like the Suns to cover tonight. I have this game capped at Lakers -1, and I have the final score as Laker 105- Suns 104. GL and enjoy the picks!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Suns/Lakers Under 220

**2 Unit Picks**
Kings +1.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Suns +9.5

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (21-26) +2.1 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (6-2)*** +11.4 Units
**2 Unit Picks (12-9)** +4.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks (3-15)* -11.5 Units

Total Unit Record (45-39)
Risk Adj. Winning % (53.57%)

Tonight, I have three picks. I love the Spurs at '+1.5 tonight against the Jazz. I have this game capped at Spurs -2. Kirilenko is questionable for the Jazz tonight. This could prove to be a critical injury if he fails to play. Both teams are a solid ATS after one day of rest. The Spurs are 6-2 ATS w/ one day of rest, while the Jazz are 6-4 ATS w/ one of rest. Going forward, the Jazz will likely be the better team this season, but I love the Spurs in this situation. GL and enjoy tonight's picks!!!

***3 Unit Picks***
Warriors/Thunder Under 221.5
Spurs +1.5

**2 Unit Picks**
Spurs/Jazz Over 194

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (23-27) +3.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (7-3)*** +11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks (13-9)** +6.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks (3-15)* -13.5 Units

Total Unit Record (50-42)
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.35%)

Above is my updated record. Sorry I was unable to post any picks today, but I have been extremely busy lately. I should have picks for the remainder of the week. GL and please let me know if you ever have questions about a particular game!!!

[bustabook]

nice work with the system... if you eliminated your 1 unit plays, you would have a very good year going. keep up the nice work.

[incomeraise]

hey, i think i am going to start tailing u hehe, but would like to know (if possible of course)how many units u made the previous seasons...since u said it has been bout 4 years..thanks for sharing again

[TheKnuckleballer]

Overall (23-27) +3.8 Units
*****5 Unit Picks***** (0-0)
****4 Unit Picks**** (0-0)
***3 Unit Picks (7-3)*** +11.1 Units
**2 Unit Picks (13-9)** +6.2 Units
*1 Unit Picks (3-15)* -13.5 Units

Total Unit Record (50-42)
Risk Adj. Winning % (54.35%)

Below are the two picks I have for the early games tonight. I will be back shortly with some additional picks for the late games. I love the Pistons against the Sixers tonight. I have this game capped as the Piston -1.5. The Sixers are 1-8 ATS at home this season. The Pistons are 4-1-1 ATS with 2 days of rest. GL and enjoy the picks!!

**2 Unit Picks**
Pistons +4.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Warriors/Nets Under 219

[bustabook]

good luck tonight knuckle... my systems likes both of those plays as well.

[TheKnuckleballer]

Below are the remainder of my picks for tonight. I like the Jazz to cover the 10.5 points tonight. Williams is probable, which raises some concern, but assuming he plays the Jazz should be able to keep this game close. The Jazz are7-4 ATS with 1 day of rest this season. I also like the Under 206.5 in this game. The Jazz are the slowest paced team in the NBA, per my ratings. Their slow pace should help keep this game under the total. I have this game capped at Lakers -4 with a total of 201. GL tonight and enjoy the picks!!

BustaBook- GL tonight!! Hopefully we can pick up some more units.

**2 Unit Picks**
Hornets/TWolves Over 194
Jazz +10.5
Jazz/Lakers Under 206.5

*1 Unit Picks*
Kings +12.5