I just discovered a reliable system for betting NBA games

[Jerm3462]

Today's picks:

dal -4.5 (WIN)
la +6 (2 units) (WIN)
hou +9.5 (WIN)
(adding) tor +8 (WIN)

Totals:

dal u 183.5 (LOSS)
la u 183 (LOSS)
hou u 200.5 (WIN)
(adding) tor o 231.5 (LOSS)

Dude you are $ on picking sides. Is it a system?
Might be safe to say the totals isnt working out.
Good job though...wish I had used your picks.

[SportsTerminator]

[TGoat]

Dude you are $ on picking sides. Is it a system?
Might be safe to say the totals isnt working out.
Good job though...wish I had used your picks.

Yes, it is a system. And, I recently discovered a subset of that system that doesn't come up very often, but when it does it has a high win percentage (+9-2, so far), often times with the dog winning outright. As in the case of the Clippers +6 tonight, hence the "2 units."

And I agree. I will probably abandon the totals.

But I'm a realist, and I know that these things can turn on a dime, so I'll keep tracking it.

[TGoat]

Originally Posted by TGoat
Today's picks:

dal -4.5 (WIN)
la +6 (2 units) (WIN)
hou +9.5 (WIN)
(adding) tor +8 (WIN)

Totals:

dal u 183.5 (LOSS)
la u 183 (LOSS)
hou u 200.5 (WIN)
(adding) tor o 231.5 (LOSS)

sides: +4 -0 totals: +1 -3

2 unit plays: +1 -0

day total: +6 -3

to date:

sides: +14 - 7 1P

2 unit plays +1 -0 [total sides: +6.64 units]

totals: +8 -14 ([-6.73 units]Last day of tracking totals)

overall: +23 -21 1P

[TGoat]

.

[n1co35]

nice system u got goin TGoat been watchin it past few days too bad i missed it sunday the sides swept it!
keep it up TGoat atleast the sides are money.

[Jerm3462]

I might take my picks (hitting 50%) and only play the ones that agree with your system lol

[dchecks]

Tgoat has taken over the thread.... Jerm not a bad idea Tgoat is killin the sides!

[TGoat]

Nov 16, 09

Port +3.5
Orl -12.5
Dal +1.5

Here is an example of why systems are so nebulous. The Dallas game opened at Mil +1.5. Had that been the case Mil would have been the play and a 2 unit play at that. But with the line change Dallas is now the play.

Personally, I like the Milwaukee play, but I'm going with the system 100%. My judgment is probably very flawed, but it just goes to show you that systems are funny that way.

If Mil is a great play at +1.5, how can they now be a bad play at -1.5? That's my thinking about the situation.

Anyway, Dallas +1.5 is the play.

I was going to start betting today, but I just have to watch it some more before I jump in. (If it continues to work, I've got all season, so what's the hurry.)

Tread lightly. You never know. Today could be that +0 -3 day. It's going to happen eventually.

[Jerm3462]

My system selected:

Atlanta -3.5
Orlando -12.5
Dallas +1.5

I ran into the same problem as you with the Dallas game. So I just use the opening line as a guide.
We only disagree on the atl/port game. I might just bet orlando and dallas.
Thanks

[BadBeatBodog]

If Mil is a great play at +1.5, how can they now be a bad play at -1.5?

If your system says each team has a 50% chance of winning this makes perfect sense. Then again, that makes no sense because for anyone whose system says 1.5 points off the predicted spread is a big play would have a ridiculously accurate system and would probably be making one or two plays at most a day. In other words, you would rarely be finding an edge on games.

[TGoat]

Nov 16, 09

Port +3.5 (LOSS)
Orl -12.5 (LOSS)
Dal +1.5 (WIN)

+1 -2 [-1.1 Units]

Total:

+16 -9 1P [Including 2 unit bets, 64%, +5.4 Units]

[TGoat]

Nov 17, 09

gs +14.5 (2 units)
okl +6.5 (2 Units)
clips +2 (2 units)
pho +3.5 (2 units)
tor +9 (2 units)
sac +2.5 (2 units)
det +10.5

ind vs nj--no play

[Jerm3462]

good luck tonight Tgoat

[Jerm3462]

Nov 17, 09

gs +14.5 (2 units)
okl +6.5 (2 Units)
clips +2 (2 units)
pho +3.5 (2 units)
tor +9 (2 units)
sac +2.5 (2 units)
det +10.5

ind vs nj--no play

Wow, going with all dogs? yikes

[stefano4]

clips -2 tonight no ?

[TGoat]

clips -2 tonight no ?

Clippers opened at +3. When I made my selections they were +2. Now they're -2.

Which brings up a good point. Clippers -2 is a one unit play on NO. Line moves change things, so I can only go by my final selections, which, if I were betting would coincide with the lines that I bet.

In this case my system picked the dog, which was the Clippers, but is now NO.

Sac is another example. Sac opened at -1 and now they're +2.5. At -1 they would still be the play, but only 1 unit.

It all depends on when you make your bets.

Confusing I know. For now, it can't be helped.

[TGoat]

Wow, going with all dogs? yikes

Tonight will be a real test.

[Jerm3462]

Nov 17, 09

gs +14.5 (2 units) (WIN)
okl +6.5 (2 Units) (WIN)
clips +2 (2 units) (LOSS)
pho +3.5 (2 units) (WIN)
tor +9 (2 units) (LOSS)
sac +2.5 (2 units) (LOSS)
det +10.5 (LOSS)

Could have been worse...get em tomorrow.

[TGoat]

Nov 17, 09

gs +14.5 (2 units) (WIN)
okl +6.5 (2 Units) (WIN)
clips +2 (2 units) (LOSS)
pho +3.5 (2 units) (WIN)
tor +9 (2 units) (LOSS)
sac +2.5 (2 units) (LOSS)
det +10.5 (LOSS)

ind vs nj--no play

+3 -4

2 unit plays +3 -3

Total: -1.6 units

[Corrected from yesterday 1 unit plays +15 -9 1P 63%, 2 unit plays +1 -0, 100% +5.4 units, ]

To date:

1 unit plays +15 -10 [60%]

2 unit plays +4 -3 [57%]

Total Plays:

+19 -13 1P [58% +4.7 units]

[TGoat]

Nov,18

wash +4.5
mia +7.5
char +3
ind -6.5
orl -12
gs +16.5 (2 units)
la +5 (2 units)
hou -5.5
nj +10
utah -8.5
san +1.5
det +10.5

[TGoat]

Nov,18

wash +4.5 (WIN)
mia +7.5 (LOSS)
char +3 (WIN)
ind -6.5 (LOSS)
orl -12 (WIN)
gs +16.5 (2 units) (WIN)
la +5 (2 units) (LOSS)
hou -5.5 (WIN)
nj +10 (LOSS)
utah -8.5 (WIN)
san +1.5 (LOSS)
det +10.5 (WIN)

+7 -5

2 unit plays +1 -1

Total: +1.36 units


To Date:

1 unit plays +21 -14 1P [60%]

2 unit plays +5 -4 [56%]

Total Plays:

+26 -18 1P [59% +6.18 units]

[iceminers26]

GL Tgoat

[TGoat]

Nov, 19

pho -8
utah +5
chi +9.5

[Jerm3462]

Good luck tonight TGoat.

[mihaita666]

lakers wins by more than 10 points, agree with the suns pick

[TGoat]

Nov, 19

pho -8 (LOSS)
utah +5 (WIN)
chi +9.5(LOSS)

+1 -2

Total: -1.09 units


To Date:

1 unit plays +22 -16 1P [58%]

2 unit plays +5 -4 [56%]

Total Plays:

+27 -20 1P [57% +5.09 units]

[TGoat]

Nov, 20

hou +7
bos -7
okl -2.5
sac +11.5
char +5.5
den -8.5
port -8.5

Added Games:

mia +3
phil -6
ind +5.5 (2 units)

[TGoat]

Nov, 20

hou +7 (WIN)
bos -7 (LOSS)
okl -2.5 (WIN)
sac +11.5 (WIN)
char +5.5 (LOSS)
den -8.5 (LOSS)
port -8.5 (LOSS)

Added Games:

mia +3 (LOSS)
phil -6 (LOSS)
ind +5.5 (2 units) (LOSS)

And we slowly, but surely, regress toward the mean.

+3 -7

2 unit plays +0 -1

Total: -4.27 units


To Date:

1 unit plays +25-22 1P [53%]

2 unit plays +5 -5 [50%]

Total Plays:

+30 -27 1P [53% -.18 units]

[Jerm3462]

I got waxed last night too

[TGoat]

I think I'll retire this current system now. Overall it went 38-28 for 58%, but broke about even when I started documenting it. The 2 unit plays went 10-5 overall and 5-5 posted. (I'm still going to keep track of it, of course, but not publicly.)

One of the main problems with this system is that it picked (practically) every game. I think you need to be more selective.

I'm working on a few more systems that show promise, one in particular. It is my current system coupled with another system. When they agree that's the play. It's more selective and maybe more logical, I don't know. It shows promise over a short back-test. (It went 3-0 yesterday.)

Here is one thing I like about it. Take last night for example. From a handicapping perspective I thought that laying the points with Denver and Portland was absurd, but the system picked both of those favorites. Both dogs won outright. With the new system, both of those games would have been a pass, which is more to my liking.

I'll track it here for a few days and see what happens. Today's plays would be:

phil +10.5
atl -5.5
sac +11
det +9
chi +8

[For the record NJ -2.5 would have also been a play, but that game had already started.]

[Jerm3462]

Today's plays would be:

phil +10.5 (WIN)
atl -5.5 (LOSS)
sac +11 (WIN)
det +9 (WIN)
chi +8 (LOSS)
NJ -2.5 (LOSS)would have also been a play, but that game had already started.

50% buddy. If just one more game had gone your way, you'd be money man.

[TGoat]

phil +10.5
atl -5.5
sac +11
det +9
chi +8

[For the record NJ -2.5 would have also been a play

Yesterday, +3 -3

Today's Plays:

Boston -9
Oklahoma +10

Added Game:

New Orleans +10

[TGoat]

Today's Plays:

Boston -9
Oklahoma +10

Added Game:

New Orleans +10

Yesterday, +1 -2

Total:

+4 -5

[TGoat]

Today's Plays:

mem -5.5
chi +7.5
clippers -5.5

[From a handicapping perspective (not system plays) my selections would be:

mil +9
la -5.5]