I just discovered a reliable system for betting NBA games

**TGoat** · 11-12-09, 11:42 AM

Originally posted by Jerm3462

Hmm, yea that's what I did. But I'm not sure how it doesn't better the accuracy of future games. Are you saying what teams did the past 3 nights mean zero?

That's not a back test. That's a back fit.

You can back fit just about anything. Horse players love to back fit. Back fits don't work going forward.

There are too many intangibles for a straight up "math type" system to work in sports betting. Your system can't account for losing a key player. A key player sitting out to let a second tier player get some time. Three road games in a row, etc.

Systems also don't take into account emotions. Psychology is a big part of sports. There is no way to enter psychology into the spread sheet.

That being said, I love to tinker with systems. I'm a sucker for them. I don't believe in them, yet I'm working on a couple of my own right now, lol.

Yes, I'm contradicting myself, but it's fun. Some day I might discover the Holy Grail, but I know I'm only dreaming.

Beating sports is hard work. ::::sigh::::

**Jerm3462** · 11-12-09, 03:10 PM

Here are Thursday Nights system picks (POSTED 3pm EST-Bodog).

Miami +1
LA Lakers -7.5

1 dog, 1 favorite
Both picks against consensus

Jerm3462 system or public? Should be fun!

**Waiting4Godot** · 11-12-09, 03:33 PM

Are you still tweaking this after each day of games? If so.. are you going back to the previous days games to see if the new tweaks still give the same result? If not, you are just wasting time and not really learning anything.

You need to settle one ONE formula and run that for a meaningful amount of games (backtesting would best/fastest). You can't tweak it night after night and just assume the current version results would match the results from 4 days (possibly 4 versions/tweaks) ago.

**netinfo** · 11-12-09, 04:06 PM

Folks, let the guy run his system/plays however he sees fit. Stop asking him to backtest, cause he already said he doesn't have the time to go through previous years.

Jerm3462, continue to post your plays in here, and we'll see how they perform for this year.

netinfo

**TGoat** · 11-12-09, 04:06 PM

Originally posted by Jerm3462

Here are Thursday Nights system picks (POSTED 3pm EST-Bodog).

Miami +1
LA Lakers -7.5

1 dog, 1 favorite
Both picks against consensus

Jerm3462 system or public? Should be fun!

Coincidence? This matches my system picks, (a new one I just came up with last night)...lol.

(I also have mia u 180 and Lakers u 220)

**Lee Jones** · 11-12-09, 04:55 PM

I have a secret system also, mine is a lot easier to execute though, with minimal mathematics. What i do is say for the Lakers game tonight i say Lakers are heads and Suns are tails, flip the coin and pick which ever teams spread the coin lands on, not only is it easy, but when i lose i can just blame the coin.

**natelli1** · 11-12-09, 05:31 PM

good luck tonight gentlemen

Picks
Miami PK -105
Mia/Cle U180.5 -110
Lakers -7.5 -110

**Jerm3462** · 11-12-09, 07:30 PM

Originally posted by Waiting4Godot

Are you still tweaking this after each day of games? .

NO, same system as last night.

**mintybetmachine** · 11-12-09, 07:53 PM

Hi.

Everyone here is telling Jerm to backtest, so maybe someone can point me over to an archive of games hopefully with lines as well? i have some stuff i wish to test. It would be amazing if the archive could also be easily transferred into excel.

Thanks.

**Jerm3462** · 11-13-09, 01:25 AM

Miami +1 (LOSS)
LA Lakers -7.5 (WIN)

Split the night. That's ok. My final system is now 10-4
71%

9 games on tap for Friday. Should really be telling. I'll post em in the afternoon.

**Jak** · 11-13-09, 03:05 AM

Looking forward to your picks

**TGoat** · 11-13-09, 05:00 AM

Not trying to horn in on your thread. I'll just put up my system picks up for tomorrow and see how they do. (Maybe I'll get put out of my misery right away.

)

nj +16
ny -1.5
no +1.5
dal -11
atl +9
sac +4
tor -2.5

phi and den no play.

**n1co35** · 11-13-09, 05:15 AM

o hope this system makes us money in a long run

keep it up jerm

and GL with ur system play Tgoat.

if there's games that agree with jerms plays i might put a small play on it

**Jerm3462** · 11-13-09, 02:06 PM

Here they are. FRIDAY NOVEMBER 13, 2009

Orlando -15.5
New York -2
Portland -2
Dallas -10.5
Boston -8.5
Houston -4
Denver -4
LA Clippers +3.5
Philadelphia +1.5 (Spread is -2 everywhere, but Bodog has at +1.5. I'd jump on that if I had a Bodog acct)

Good luck tonight everyone. I straight bet these all

**jgiun1** · 11-13-09, 02:24 PM

damn, it picked DENVER........GL on all except that

**TGoat** · 11-13-09, 02:42 PM

As long as I have my neck on the chopping block I'll put up my total plays as well.

Orl o 190
ny o 225
no o 190
min o 196
bos u 193
sac o 210
la u 209

**Jerm3462** · 11-13-09, 02:49 PM

Originally posted by TGoat

Not trying to horn in on your thread. I'll just put up my system picks up for tomorrow and see how they do. (Maybe I'll get put out of my misery right away.

).

One of us is being put out of our misery, because out of your 7 plays, our system picked 5 of the games differently.

**superduperjacob** · 11-13-09, 04:09 PM

Good luck tonight, Jerm!

**n1co35** · 11-13-09, 04:49 PM

hmm looks like ny and dal agrees with both system.
i think ill play a small parlay with those teams.

**BigTrev** · 11-13-09, 07:40 PM

Originally posted by Lee Jones

I have a secret system also, mine is a lot easier to execute though, with minimal mathematics. What i do is say for the Lakers game tonight i say Lakers are heads and Suns are tails, flip the coin and pick which ever teams spread the coin lands on, not only is it easy, but when i lose i can just blame the coin.

HAHA I do the exact same thing but with the total score of NHL matches, works over 50% too

**Pick'nParlays** · 11-13-09, 09:15 PM

newbs

**Jerm3462** · 11-13-09, 09:26 PM

Orlando -15.5 (WIN)
Portland -2 (WIN)
Dallas -10.5 (WIN)
Denver -4 (WIN)
LA Clippers +3.5 (LOSS)
Houston -4 (LOSS)
Boston -8.5 (LOSS)
New York -2 (LOSS)
Philadelphia +1.5 (LOSS)

Well guys. It doesn't work. I'm retiring this system at 14 wins 9 losses. 60%. Thanks for your support.
Teams like Boston really piss me off.

**TGoat** · 11-14-09, 01:03 AM

Originally posted by TGoat

Not trying to horn in on your thread. I'll just put up my system picks up for tomorrow and see how they do. (Maybe I'll get put out of my misery right away.

)

nj +16 P
ny -1.5 LOSS
no +1.5 LOSS
dal -11 WIN
atl +9 WIN
sac +4 WIN
tor -2.5 WIN

+4 -2 1P

phi and den no play.

As long as I have my neck on the chopping block I'll put up my total plays as well.

Orl o 190 LOSS
ny o 225 WIN
no o 190 LOSS
min o 196 LOSS
bos u 193 WIN
sac o 210 LOSS
la u 209 WIN

+3 -4

Total:

+7 -6 1P

**TGoat** · 11-14-09, 03:00 AM

.

**Jak** · 11-14-09, 05:25 AM

Looks like both your system have accuracy of 50%...

**BigTrev** · 11-14-09, 05:59 AM

today was a bad round though, quite a few shocks

**williams22** · 11-14-09, 10:11 AM

Originally posted by Jerm3462

Orlando -15.5 (WIN)
Portland -2 (WIN)
Dallas -10.5 (WIN)
Denver -4 (WIN)
LA Clippers +3.5 (LOSS)
Houston -4 (LOSS)
Boston -8.5 (LOSS)
New York -2 (LOSS)
Philadelphia +1.5 (LOSS)

Well guys. It doesn't work. I'm retiring this system at 14 wins 9 losses. 60%. Thanks for your support.
Teams like Boston really piss me off.

You don't get it do you? No system can be made or broken in 23 plays. You need far more to know if it works, without tweaking it.Any system tha can produce of 55% consistently is worthwhile, but you don't seem to have the patience for this.

**TGoat** · 11-14-09, 11:28 AM

I'll try a few more days and see what happens.

ind+7
det +3.5
char +2.5
no +12
utah +13
mia -13
phil +7
mem -8.5
mil -7.5

Totals: (I don't believe the totals method is as reliable, but I'm tracking it for a while anyway.)

ind o 191
det u 186
char u 170.5
no u 200.5
utah o 191
mia u 180
phil o 189.5
mem o 202
mil u 209.5

**n1co35** · 11-14-09, 04:13 PM

GL Tgoat if ppl just played ur sides. they would've profited

**scratbandit** · 11-14-09, 05:14 PM

Picks for tonight.. 11/14
Try these for over/unders!

boston vs pacers
under 191

detroit vs wash
under 186

atlanta vs new orleans
under 205

philadelphia vs chicago
under 190

minnesota vs memphis
under 205 buy 3 points 208

golden state vs milwaukee
over 208 buy 3 205

okc vs spurs
over 184

**TGoat** · 11-15-09, 03:22 AM

Originally posted by tgoat

i'll try a few more days and see what happens.

ind+7 (win)
det +3.5 (win)
char +2.5 (loss)
no +12 (loss)
utah +13 (win)
mia -13 (loss)
phil +7 (win)
mem -8.5 (win)
mil -7.5 (loss)

totals: (i don't believe the totals method is as reliable, but i'm tracking it for a while anyway.)

ind o 191 (win)
det u 186 (loss)
char u 170.5 (win)
no u 200.5 (loss)
utah o 191 (win)
mia u 180 (win)
phil o 189.5 (loss)
mem o 202 (loss)
mil u 209.5 (loss)

sides: +5 -4 totals: +4 -5

day total: +9 -9

to date:

sides: +10 - 7 1P

totals: +7 -11

overall: +17 -18 1P

**KiDBaZkiT** · 11-15-09, 04:18 AM

This is just pathetic.

**TGoat** · 11-15-09, 06:21 AM

Originally posted by KiDBaZkiT

This is just pathetic.

At least someone is enjoying themselves.

**n1co35** · 11-15-09, 06:24 AM

Tgoat it's cool. past 2 days the sides made profiting record. maybe fading the totals will work?

**TGoat** · 11-15-09, 01:50 PM

Originally posted by n1co35

Tgoat it's cool. past 2 days the sides made profiting record. maybe fading the totals will work?

I don't recommend anyone actually bet money on these selections. I'm certainly not. At least not yet anyway.

Today's picks:

dal -4.5
la +6 (2 units)
hou +9.5
(adding) tor +8

Totals:

dal u 183.5
la u 183
hou u 200.5
(adding) tor o 231.5