NBA ~ 2009/2010 Regular Season Thread

[shoebox]

nice avatar dexter crush it!!

[Dexter]

yes they are sniper - just check post 1 on page 1. here are the updated records.


(A1) fade any team playing their 4th game in 5 nights - 18-12

(A2) fade any team that beats the world champs (lakers) in their next game - 3-6

(A3) fade any team coming off an overtime game when they travel into denver or utah the next night (back to back) for a min of 5x. the jazz and nuggets must be playing on at least 1 days - no plays yet

[Dexter]

nice avatar dexter crush it!!

do you know who that is? ring the cow bells baby

[Dexter]

i created a post your pic thread but it got moved to the pzone.....hopefully mods will allow us to post here....lets put a face behind the avatars:




middle with blue shirt

[Dexter]

NBA Record YTD: 120-116.................dont wanna calculate my units yet. its bad and around 25 down. if i look it may piss me off and cause me to chase

[SpreadSniper]

get in here and post your picks! jk

a2 not the greatest success so far... firm believer in the a1 bets

[Dexter]

get in here and post your picks! jk

a2 not the greatest success so far... firm believer in the a1 bets

a2 was a cash cow last year - thats the autobet to likely start heating up. it just makes sense.

[mihaita666]

i like your idea, posting pictures behind avatars.....and if you dont mind, ill post a pic of me here :P

[Dexter]

great guys...make me be the only one to post pics

[mihaita666]

i asked you this because i've never talked to you on SBR...

in hard rock cafe (bucharest)


smoking a cigar at the graduation party last spring

halloween party :P

[Dexter]

damn - hating my warrior bet at +10 with ellis out....wish i got down at +12

[mihaita666]

elis out....is the over in big danger ?

[TGoat]

Family Potos

Here are some photos of my family. The first one is my lovely wife. Doesn't she have a nice smile?

[Dexter]

haha.....

i cant believe you guys are leaving me out to hang....

[TGoat]

Here is a photo of Granddaddy Goat. He is very regal. He has 18 wives.

[TGoat]

This is a photo of some of my children. From left to right:

LB, Busta, Mex, Snipey, DoubleC, MK and Rochester. And finally, last but not least...

[TGoat]

This is Brakon goat. He is the Black Sheep Goat of the family. We would rather not talk about him.

[SpreadSniper]

- having a tough time with a couple games atm.... this just made everything better... thanks bro

[Dexter]

1/24:

(3x) knicks +4

[kobefanatic]

sir dexter can the NYK win straight up against DAL?

[AzNDooM]

Interesting bet on the Knicks, I am on Dallas unfortunately. Playing the numbers game this time but appreciate your picks nonetheless.
Like the A1s, they been coming in very well. Good trend and catch you got there.

[Dexter]

sir dexter can the NYK win straight up against DAL?

i didnt really like any games today so im strictly following movements etc today (the gambler in me has to have plays for championship sunday). some serious RLM going on in the knick game with 80% of the public on dallas yet the line has dropped from 4 down to 3 now in some spots. i made a decent sized play on the game since one of my locals still had a very soft line of 4. i had to jump on that.

[Dexter]

(2x) wizards -2.5 - have to fade the clippers playing on the east coast with their body clocks thinking its 10am.

[Dexter]

the public are all over the road teams today.....

[Dexter]

(2x) over mavs 199

[Dexter]

(2x) raptors +4.5

[Dexter]

Mon 1/25:

(5x) celtics
(2x) magic +1
(3x) spurs
(2x) rockets -1
(2x) hornets

[TGoat]

i didnt really like any games today so im strictly following movements... some serious RLM going on in the knick game with 80% of the public on dallas yet the line has dropped from 4 down to 3 now in some spots.

Have you done any long-term research that shows the effectiveness of RLM in the NBA?

What work I did on that subject, small sample size to be sure, provided nothing conclusive one way or the other. In fact, it lost more than it won.

[Dexter]

Have you done any long-term research that shows the effectiveness of RLM in the NBA?

What work I did on that subject, small sample size to be sure, provided nothing conclusive one way or the other. In fact, it lost more than it won.

no i havent.....its tricky. if i had to make a solid concrete rule to get the best plays possible, it would be to play a team getting just 40% or < of the action and where the line has moved against them by at least 1 point from the opener.

im a firm believer that sharp money comes in at the open. obviously you need to give the public joes some time to make their bets, so a midday move is prob the best.

also, i tend to cross out games involving questionable or OUT players due to injury. many times there the line is not moving cause of sharp money - but from adjustments

[MrSink]

i like memphis today
i will put some units here
gl all

[SpreadSniper]

[quote=Dexter;3024920]Mon 1/25:

(5x) celtics

ML play Dex?

[TGoat]

im a firm believer that sharp money comes in at the open.

That is interesting. I'm guessing only, but I would speculate that LB thinks just the opposite.

My opinion is mixed. I think the truly smart money is looking for a certain number and pounces when they get it--that could be at the open or at the close. If they don't get the number they're looking for, they pass.

If you believe that smart money waits until the last minute so they don't tip their hand, then the flaw in that reasoning is that they won't always get the best number.

If you believe that smart money likes to bet early, then the flaw in that reasoning is that if they wait they might get an even better number.

I also think that the public likes to pounce early--at least online.

Tricky subject. No concrete answers that I'm aware of.

[Dexter]

[quote=SpreadSniper;3030658]

Mon 1/25:

(5x) celtics

ML play Dex?

no.....lines werent out when i posted my plays for some.

celts -11
spurs -7
hornets +3

[Dexter]

That is interesting. I'm guessing only, but I would speculate that LB thinks just the opposite.

My opinion is mixed. I think the truly smart money is looking for a certain number and pounces when they get it--that could be at the open or at the close. If they don't get the number they're looking for, they pass.

If you believe that smart money waits until the last minute so they don't tip their hand, then the flaw in that reasoning is that they won't always get the best number.

If you believe that smart money likes to bet early, then the flaw in that reasoning is that if they wait they might get an even better number.

I also think that the public likes to pounce early--at least online.

Tricky subject. No concrete answers that I'm aware of.

he does agree that sharps get down early and adjust "off" lines....but hes also a huge believer in beating the closing line. i would also agree that the movement seen right at tipoff is extremely sharp. i remember years ago, me and my buddy used to sit there and put plays in as the games were literally tipping up to wait for the last possible line movement to display. too much craziness for a non pro. check this article out....

http://www.thespread.com/nfl-footbal...edictions.html

"While studying the line movement for this matchup, it’s interesting to note that this game opened at Saints –4.5 and then immediately dropped down to 4. At some sports books, the line has even dropped down to 3.5 and 3. The public doesn’t usually bet the early action, which likely means that the line movement was because of sharp bettors. And since the public has taken a liking to the Saints and their high-powered offense, we feel confident that sharp money moved the line and not public money."

so its def known in the industry that initial movement is usually that of real players, and not so much the common public. kinda makes sense to me.

[havana]

Mon 1/25:

(5x) celtics
(2x) magic +1
(3x) spurs
(2x) rockets -1
(2x) hornets