Baba's picks: aI will update every day, with complete picks made (even prlays/teasers

**bigboydan** · 03-05-07, 02:55 PM

Looking forward to reading your thread on a daily basis baba.

BOL to you tonight sir

**nevadaside** · 03-05-07, 02:57 PM

Best of luck to you baba on your dailys!

PS: your Horns have been hooking me up lately....like seeing that avatar.

**babaoriley** · 03-06-07, 02:04 PM

OK, so I don't like much tonight, especially following a nice day.

On one hand, I see everyone likes the Spurs. I normally do not play the Spurs on the 2nd end of a back-to-back. I did pick them against Houston, because it's a 45 minute flight from S.A. and there is still some home element to it. Now, the Spurs are playing their 4th game in 5 days, and on the 2nd half of another back-to-back. Playing at Portland seems like an easy enough win, right? Well, with Parker out again, I actually like their chances to cover 6 more than usual, as Jaque Vaughn (whom I normally detest) has been playing well and is at least trying to prove he belongs in this league as a role player. He will bring a little intensity. Right now, I'm leaning the Over of 180 and Spurs ML, parlay. And I'm leaning Butler over Wright St. I'll post later, but wanted to possibly start a dialogue on the Spurs.

**Razz** · 03-06-07, 02:21 PM

That nice of The Answer to do that for you.

Good luck baba, glad to have people like you posting your thoughts.

**babaoriley** · 03-06-07, 03:28 PM

Yeah Razz, I have no idea how to edit that damn thread title. But, when you're thinking about placing wagers, doesn't it make you feel warm and fuzzy knowing that AI will be on the same tip?

Seriously though, I'm just trying my hand at the whole keeping my thread updated with my picks, even though I'm probably in the middle in terms of capping ability on here. Maybe not even the middle... However, this time of year is my absolute favorite (NCAA conf. tourneys) and I've been hot (for the most part) as of late, so I figured I'd at least keep my thoughts contained to one thread (for the most part) so people can easily filter if they don't really give a shit.

**babaoriley** · 03-07-07, 02:03 AM

Well, tonight was one of those nights. My newborn baby developed a case of "the high-pitched screams" while I was studying for International Business and Nonlinear Business Systems (aka Chaos Theory) midterms... We didn't have any food in the house and my wife is sick, so we got to throw together crappy frozen Lasagna dinners that tasted like plastic... I had a pessimistic view going into the night and sure enough, it sucked. Where to start... How about Princeton/Penn combining for 45 points in the first half, then scoring 67 in the second half to kill my Under 110.5 bet. Fair enough. Then Butler and Wright can't score for a solid stretch of several minutes in the 2nd half, and the Over 119 misses by 4. Then, it wasn't a surprise at all when Mark Blount hit 3 straight 3's to rally Minnesota and force OT to kill my LA ML/-197 parlay. Ok, THAT was a surprise. Mark Blount??? Hitting 3's? What the ****? So, with my only other bet being SA ML/+180.5 and the Spurs down by 9 going into the 4th, I just turned off my computer, closed my books, poured about 4 ounces of scotch, and thought to myself "Well, at least it wasn't THAT heavy of a day." before completely breaking into "Mark F'ing Blount hit THREE straight 3's in the final 2:20 to send the game into OT" mode. My baby even quieted down. My guess is that she could sense my anger, though I kept everything in perspective. A couple bad beats on games that I played a little heavier than I usually would, due in large part to there being only 3-4 plays that I actually liked on the card, but I've been hot so I thought I'd go a little heavy. Bad day to do so. Until my Spurs somehow hit 5 straight 3's to close out Portland, restoring some order (though THAT was a bad beat for any Portland ML backers). I guess the only reason I'm typing this is because, during the commotion that was my mid-afternoon study/baby/wife cluster****, I somehow knew that tonight would be a bad night, but that everything would be alright in the end. The dent in my bankroll is only significant from a nominal aspect, not a percentage aspect, and my favorite time of the season is around the corner. Plus, after tomorrow, midterms are done and I have a full week off to devote to family (and of course, to studying every bit of NCAA conf. tourney data in the hopes of finding a couple nice lines). But Mark Blount???

**babaoriley** · 03-07-07, 02:43 PM

Today's pick is a simple ML parlay:

3 units Pays (+113) WINNER
Ohio (-330)
Marquette (-300)
SLU (-450)

Plays today: +3.39 units
Plays to-date: +10.02 units (Juice included)

Note that I am including only bets I list here as official plays/ Since I didn't list anything on Tuesday (a bad day for me, monetarily) my totals from Sunday aren't counted. Then again, I used St. Joe's as a cog in 2 parlays that hit tonight, which would have been an additional +5.2 units (actually +2.6 because I played each parlay at half a unit. you get my drift. Only keeping tabs of games that i list before-hand, not after the fact. Tomorrow shall be fun.

**bigboydan** · 03-07-07, 02:45 PM

Not exactly the way I'd play that Ohio game personally, but I do wish you luck with your parlay.

**Peyton2MarvinN06** · 03-07-07, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Today's pick is a simple ML parlay:

3 units Pays (+113)
Ohio (-330)
Marquette (-300)
SLU (-450)

Good luck today Baba! I'm on Ohio -7 for the game! I really think they will put it to a lackluster BG team that they have creamed twice already this year!

Let's win some money today!

**tevari** · 03-07-07, 03:36 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Today's pick is a simple ML parlay:

3 units Pays (+113)
Ohio (-330)
Marquette (-300)
SLU (-450)

nice play

**babaoriley** · 03-07-07, 05:49 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

Not exactly the way I'd play that Ohio game personally, but I do wish you luck with your parlay.

Dan, I'd probably have put money on Ohio to cover the 7.5 also, probably teased with Marquette, but after taking a couple bad beats yesterday, I was just looking for a nice simple play. I'm a tad worried about SLU coming out lackluster, Duquesne getting hot from behind the arc, etc. but not really worried about Marquette. I'm basically trying to recoup my losses from yesterday with this one play. Yeah, I'm eating into a lot of potential profit, as it's entirely possible (probable even) that all three teams cover outright, but I'm going with the safer play today. As I stated late last night (see a few posts above this), I had a bad feeling yesterday, then endured a 67 point half by Princeton and Penn to blow my Under by 1.5 points, followed promptly by Mark Blount hitting 3 straight treys in the last 2:20 to send that game into OT and kill my Lakers parlay.. I have a great feeling about cashing this ML play. Tomorrow's slate is where I become REALLY, REALLY interested. Then Friday is like Christmas and New Year's wrapped into one. Can't wait to see the TX-Mizzou line. I actually think TX will be overvalued, unless questions surrounding Durant's ankle arise (my ideal situation, by the way). P.S. congrats to all you Ohio backers on a nice cover.

**nevadaside** · 03-07-07, 06:01 PM

Hey baba-
Good goin for you man. You weren't alone yesterday with a bad feeling.....I was the same way & should've just waited until today.....never fails.....bad feelings = bad losses. Freakin lost SA-6 by 1 & got snuffed out on my NY-2 as well....just bad bad bad. And then that DAMN WRIGHT Over that should've covered no problem....saw you were on that as well.

Well....best of luck to you today & for "your" Christmas/New Years. Always look forward to your writeups....glad you started your own thread.

**babaoriley** · 03-07-07, 11:48 PM

As I suspected, SLU almost threw me off on this one. Happy with the way I played it, though a simple parlay or tease with Marquette/Ohio would have been a better play.

**babaoriley** · 03-08-07, 05:40 AM

3* GA -2.5 -105 WINNER
2* (4.5 pt tease) Gtown -.5 and over 117.5. -120 WINNER
2* Tennessee -2.5 LOSS-What a choke-job... Turnovers, not rebounding mssed FT's, ill'advised shots (and that was all in OT) horrible game by Tennessee and I hope they played themselves out of the tournament (they didn't but still)
.5* Arkansas -6/Georgia -2.5 parlay (+260) WINNER

Will add more, but don't want to miss games I'll sleep through... Best of luck.

**bigboydan** · 03-08-07, 12:03 PM

I like that Tennessee play Baba.

**babaoriley** · 03-08-07, 12:44 PM

ADDING:
2* USC -2.5 -105 WIN
1* UMASS -6.5 LOSS

And for shits and giggles (a couple teasers):
0.3*(+160) Bama +10.5, South Car +10.5, Iowa St. +11.5 LOSS
0.3*(+250) Tex Tech -7, Utah st. +6.5, Umass -2, MSU -7 LOSS

**Razz** · 03-08-07, 01:06 PM

Against you on Georgia, Baba, but I hope you win everything else.

**nevadaside** · 03-08-07, 01:10 PM

I really like MSU & UTAH ST in teasers today. GL with your roster today!

I was looking at running this-
4.5 pt'er:
SYR+6
SO.MISS+7.5
SDST Pk
MSU-7
WYOMING+10

Any thougths on this one?

**babaoriley** · 03-08-07, 01:40 PM

I like it, but why are you only getting +10 on Wyoming? You should be able to get them at +11 or 11.5 on a 4.5 pointer.
I do like the bet, though. I'm a tad worried about Cuse coming out flat (actually more concerned about Notre Dame shooting lights out), but I like the bet.

Adding: LOSS
1* ML Parlay (pays +200)
UMASS -290 (
Duke -550 (a tad worried) -For good reason
Ga Tech (-650)
Illini (-800)
SDST (-220)

**babaoriley** · 03-08-07, 02:16 PM

WOW, that Nova 3 at time expired just won me 2 units!!! Needed over of 117.5, that 3 hit me at 119.
NOTE: AND THAT IS WHY I TEASED THAT!!!

**nevadaside** · 03-08-07, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

I like it, but why are you only getting +10 on Wyoming? You should be able to get them at +11 or 11.5 on a 4.5 pointer.
I do like the bet, though. I'm a tad worried about Cuse coming out flat (actually more concerned about Notre Dame shooting lights out), but I like the bet.

Adding:
1* ML Parlay (pays +200)
UMASS -290
Duke -550 (a tad worried)
Ga Tech (-650)
Illini (-800)
SDST (-220)

That WYOMING was as of the line I had last seen, actually got them +11.5, MSU-6.5, & SDST+.5 on that TEAS.

**babaoriley** · 03-08-07, 04:21 PM

ADDING:
1*Louisville -105 -3.5 WINNER
.5* Louisville -3.5 Under 132.5 LOSS

**babaoriley** · 03-08-07, 11:22 PM

Adding
.5 units UCSB -3, Wazzou ML (-165), SDST ML (-250) parlay (LOSS)

Pays (+330)

Plays today +3.11 Units Including juice
Plays to date: +13.13 Units

Again, these are stated plays only... There have been numerous bets that I've placed without posting here (won some, lost some), but I'm only posting stated plays for obvious reasons.

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 12:57 PM

OK guys, I'm rolling with a large wager today (this is my first 10 unit play since changing my typical unit *which I do, come late-Feb, early March, annually*)

10* TX -4.5 (Pays -120) (LOSS)
TX A&M -3.5

I'm also playing
(all 1 unit plays at -105)
K.St -2 WINNER
Kansas -11.5 WINNER
T A&M -8 LOSS
Texas -9 LOSS
Arkansas -2 LOSS
Akron -4 WINNER
UVA -4.5 LOSS

EDIT: Sorry for posting this, but I just noticed that by the time I posted this, Kansas game was underway KU 11-8

**bigboydan** · 03-09-07, 01:01 PM

Now thats confidence putting 10 units on Texas today baba.

Good luck with your slate of games today

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 01:18 PM

Now for some dogs:
Wake +8.5 LOSS
Illini +2 WINNER
Rhode Island +11.5 WINNER
USC +1.5 WINNER

And a 4.5 point teaser (-120) LOSS
Louisville +7.5
MSU +8

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by bigboydan

Now thats confidence putting 10 units on Texas today baba.

Good luck with your slate of games today

Well, putting 10 units on that teaser... I don't have enough confidence to play the side for 10 (though I'll admit that I thought about making it a 3-4 unit play). Durant's ankle concerns bother me, as I feel UT will rest him and his ceiling is probably 28-30 minutes (depending on how close the game actually is). To be honest, I just look for a statement game for A&M to ponder. Maybe a couple different defensive adjustments. This game is crucial to UT seeding, and winning the tourney isn't out of the question.. BB

BBD, I assume by the tone of your post that you don;t like my pick. Dammit, as one of my favorite, most respected posters around here, would you care to elaborate., because that worries me a tad. Is it simply too big of a wager given the uncertainty surrounding Durant? Regardless, I'm on a minor roll with stated plays and this one has had me up all night. Best team in the country (A&M, playing an OSU team that was finally able to put a game together last night.) I just like getting less than 5 in the UT game, and less than 4 in the A&M.

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 01:37 PM

ADDING: 1* parlay Kansas -6.5/Over 67 2nd half (typical +260 0dds LOSS
)

**bigboydan** · 03-09-07, 01:40 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

BBD, I assume by the tone of your post that you don;t like my pick.

Not for 10 units I don't bud.

You could very well be right about Texas, but I personally can't lay that type of wood in a tourney game is all.

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 01:56 PM

Well, I'm going to need your cheering (this isn't dipping into the college funds--this is dipping into profits I made by owning a % of a local oil drilling company (horizontal drilling).

Cheer me on tonight BBD, and I'll do the saem for you:

1*Adding ML parlay (pays +310 LOSS
BC
VA
A&M
UT
Florida UNLV

Adding .1 units on the following ML parlay: (Pays +2320) LOSS
BC
Wisoncsin
UVA
A&M
Texas
Houston
Florida
G-town
Nevada
BYU
UNLV

**bigboydan** · 03-09-07, 01:58 PM

Since I passed on that game myself, I'll be cheering for you baba

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 02:40 PM

Appreciate it dan. Anything your're on that I can tail?

**babaoriley** · 03-09-07, 09:17 PM

Just added (I'm on tilt):

22* on Texas ML (+550) WINNER (THANK GOD)

By the way, if Texas loses tonight, I'm in trouble.

Plays today: -8.40 Units
Plays to-date: +4.73 Units Juice included

**rjt721** · 03-09-07, 11:49 PM

Originally posted by babaoriley

Just added (I'm on tilt):

22* on Texas ML (+550)

By the way, if Texas loses tonight, I'm in trouble.

Great comeback by UT. Congrats Baba. That must of been stressful as hell to watch.