NBA Trends

[kingdom]

I have been searching nba trends looking for common trends that aren't always team specific. If it is a strong trend for a specific team i will play that depending on frequency. i am looking for consistency and typically a minimal frequency in most instances. i look for high percentage plays for progressive betting and trends that may have a bit of reason behind them situationally. I will post some of the high pct plays here. I know trends can be on either side, but i use my sense of reasoning to find ones that fit best by situation.

i like more recent trends that fit either a team's personnel or style as well as current rule changes which may have an effect in scoring and totals that may not have applied five years ago.

[kingdom]

Rockets are at the wizards tonight. the strongest trends heavily favor the rockets in this matchup. over the past 3 seasons teams that give up 110 or more ppg in last 2 outings are 32-8-1 as a road fav of 8 or more. not only do these teams cover, but dominate outscoring opponents by an average of 120-104 and holding them under 44% shooting and an avg of almost 6 blocks compared to opponents 4 suggesting a much stronger defensive effort. even the defensive averse rockets are 3-0 in these situations outscoring opponents 119-97 and allowing less than 40% fg pct.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=A+and+line%3C%3D-8+and+110%3C%3Dppo%3Apoints+and+110%3C%3Dpo%3Apoints+and+date%3E%3D20161210&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=team%3D+Rockets+and+A+and+line%3C%3D-8+and+110%3C%3Dppo%3Apoints+and+110%3C%3Dpo%3Apoints+and+date%3E%3D20161210&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

The wizards on the other had an uncommonly good offensive night against the spurs last time out. But these teams lose the glass slipper pretty quick when they return home as a dog of 8 or more. teams that had double the assist to t/o's are 4-45 su and 9-38-2 ats over last 3 seasons for a cover rate of 19%. wiz also had 6 players in double figures. big home dogs after such a game are 2-18 ats last 20 matchups.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=8%3C%3Dline+and+p%3AL+and+p%3AD+and+p%3ADDS%3E%3D6+and+date%3E%3D20181118&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28H%20and%208%3C%3Dline%20and%200%3Crest%20and%20p%3AD%20and%202%3C%3Dp%3AATR%20and%20date%3E%3D20160327%29%20as%20%22Teams%20are%209-38-2%20ATS%20%28-5.35%20ppg%29%20as%20a%20home%208%2B%20dog%20with%20rest%20off%20a%20game%20as%20a%20dog%20in%20which%20they%20has%20at%20least%20twice%20as%20many%20assists%20as%20turnovers.%20%2820191030%2C%20%27Wizards%27%29%22&plot_PL=1

[kingdom]

As most big home dogs aren't very good teams on either side of the ball, there are tons of statistical info that points this out. For example, teams that are 8+ home dogs don't defend the 3 well and are 13-42 ats against teams that avg less than 58 ppg from 2 pt range since last season.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%288%3C%3Dline%20and%20p%3AL%20and%20p%3AD%20and%20oA%28points-3%2ATPM-FTM%29%3C58%20and%20date%3E%3D20181124%29%20as%20%22Teams%20are%2013-42-1%20ATS%20%28-4.22%20ppg%29%20as%20a%208%2B%20dog%20off%20a%20loss%20as%20a%20dog%20facing%20an%20opponent%20averaging%20less%20than%2058%20ppg%20from%202-point%20range.%20%2820191030%2C%20%27Wizards%27%29%22&plot_PL=1

An important thing to note about high percentage trends is if you lose one, its best to play continuously as it will be more often in your favor than not.

[kingdom]

The Kings play surprisingly well against high volume 3 pt shooting teams. they are 45-17 ats last 5+ seasons against teams shooting 33% of their fga from 3. they were 17-4 ats last season including closing out 12-0 ats. it's early in the season and charlotte is shooting 38 3pt shots per game.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DKings+and+0%3Crest+and+p%3AL+and+p%3AD+and+oS%28TPA%29+%2F+oS%28FGA%29%3E%3D0.33+and+date%3E%3D20131215&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

the trends in the rockets game also favors the under as the road favs dominate the home dogs holding them under 100 ppg and 42 pct shooting. that line has moved from 230 all the way to 234.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=A+and+line%3C%3D-8+and+rest%3C2+and+p%3AW+and+p%3AH+and+date%3E%3D20171201&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

the rockets had 3 games last season that fit and held opponents to an avg of 96ppg. only concern is personnel changes and westbrook pushing the pace. but i will still bet them to fall under this number.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=team%3DRockets+and+A+and+line%3C%3D-8+and+rest%3C2+and+p%3AW+and+p%3AH+and+date%3E%3D20171201&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

Hornets are also 4-22 o/u after a road dog loss and game is a road dog again with less than 2 days rest including 2-13 last 15.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DHornets%20and%20A%20and%20D%20and%20rest%3C2%20and%20p%3AA%20and%20p%3AD%20and%20date%3E%3D20160127%29%20as%20%22The%20Hornets%20are%204-22-1%20OU%20%28-11.39%20ppg%29%20as%20a%20road%20dog%20with%20less%20than%20two%20days%20rest%20after%20playing%20as%20a%20road%20dog.%22&plot_PL=1

again the kings defend well against high volume 3pt shooting teams and the o/u was 1-10 last season for kings off a loss facing high volume 3 pt shooting team as a fav. they were also 11-0 su and 10-1 ats in these games.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DKings+and+F+and+p%3AL+and+oA%28points-3*TPM-FTM%29%3C58+and+date%3E%3D20180805&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[MikeyD323]

If this is true....great work man. I want to take them tonight and test it out.

[kingdom]

Bucks are also a team that does well against high volume 3 pts shooting teams. The celtics at home do not. as a home dog off a win the past 5 seasons they are 9-22 ats. the bucks on the other hand are 25-2 su and 23-4 ats against high volume 3 pt shooting teams since last season.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=H+and+D+and+1%3Crest+and+p%3AW+and+p%3AF+and+oA%28points-3*TPM-FTM%29%3C58+and+date%3E%3D20150128&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DBucks%20and%20F%20and%200%3Crest%20and%20oA%28points-3%2ATPM-FTM%29%3C58%20and%20date%3E%3D20181205%29%20as%20%22The%20Bucks%20are%2023-4%20ATS%20%287.74%20ppg%29%20as%20a%20favorite%20with%20rest%20facing%20an%20opponent%20averaging%20less%20than%2058%20ppg%20from%202-point%20range.%22&plot_PL=1

[kingdom]

If this is true....great work man. I want to take them tonight and test it out.

its better to take a trend you like as well as a play you like. even high pct trends lose so its not guaranteed on any given day. gl.

[MikeyD323]

its better to take a trend you like as well as a play you like. even high pct trends lose so its not guaranteed on any given day. gl.

Oh I’ll be playing what I like as well Lmao

[kingdom]

one of the trends that came as a surprise to me is portland as a road favorite. over the years my perception has been portland as a great home team with a great crowd. in actuality, since 17 season they are 23-10 ats(69.7%) as a road fav and o/u is 12-19 as they hold teams to 103 ppg while scoring 112 ppg. this is a strong trend for progressive betting. i wouldn't just pick and choose randomly with this trend. i think it will give positive units over a season.

there are a ton of under trends with both teams tonight. some are more specific than i like. okc does play under in close games. with all the personnel changes it is tough to tell if it will still continue with same coach still in place. but when the line is within 3 points either way, thunder are on a run of 4-22-1 o/u.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DThunder%20and%20%28-3%3C%3Dline%3C%3D3%29%20and%20%280%3Crest%29%20and%20date%3E%3D20180329%29%20as%20%22The%20Thunder%20are%204-22-1%20OU%20%28-3.65%20ppg%29%20when%20the%20line%20is%20within%203%20of%20pick%20with%20rest.%22&plot_PL=1

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DTrailblazers+and+A+and+F+and+season%3E2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

pretty crappy results last night. rockets give up 77 in 1h only to top it by giving up 81 in 2h. not sure if they still have the so called "defensive coord. assistant anymore. bucks give up 20 pt lead. not even sure what's wrong with the sac queens.

not much going on tonight. hawks were on a 10-3 ats home stretch, but no trae young so thats out.

pels have gone 5-15 ats at home including new guys going 0-4 su and 1-3 ats. not really a good play in october when they are desperate for a win and its kinda meaningless for the nuggets.

[Hu$tle]

keep up the good work

[kingdom]

I did figure out whats going on with sac queens. Walton is the coach. much like the lakers when he was there, no defense is played. they are 0-5 su/ats allowing teams to shoot 50% from field while they average 41%. His rotations are bad and his best scorers have been inconsistent. the only thing on their side is desperation. they avg 98.6ppg and allow 115.6.

Jazz are 30-22 ats as a fav since dec. of last yr. also they are 16-33 under since then as a fav giving up just under 102 ppg.

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DJazz%20and%20F%20and%20date%3E%3D20181128%29%20as%20%22The%20Jazz%20are%2016-33-4%20OU%20%28-3.37%20ppg%29%20since%20Nov%2028%2C%202018%20as%20a%20favorite.%22

[kingdom]

Bucks and Magic is an interesting matchup. Magic haven't scored 100 pts yet this season. that should change as the bucks play with pace.
Magic have 4 straight unders so far. the bucks are 23-15 since last season as a road fav. but when you slim the line to below -7, they are only 8-13 ats as a road fav. they give up 113.5 ppg in these matchups. intersting contrasts as well as buck coming off L at celtics.

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=t%3Ateam%3DBucks+and+A+and+F+and+date%3E%3D20180831+and+line%3E%3D-6.5&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

Battle of the 0fers as Nets are 0-4 ATS giving up 122 ppg. Rockets are 0-4 ats giving up 127.5 ppg. total is crazy high at 244. i'm not sure houston can defend anyone. seems like the nets aren't gonna be very good with the kyrie show. be interesting to see if houston finally makes an attempt on defense. at this point last year they just blamed everything on melo. maybe russ will get the blame this time around.

[kingdom]

One of my favorite trends from last year was away favorites of 6.5 to 10. i used it progressive after a L. tonight the spurs qualify against gsw.

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=team%21%3DClippers+and+team%21%3DThunder+and+A+and+-10+%3C+line+%3C%3D+-6.5+and+season%3E%3D2017&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

this trend is a 65% cover over last 3 seasons. but rockets qualify and their defense makes them trendbusters.

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=%28site%3D%3D%27away%27+and+line%2B0%3C0%29+and+p%3Apoints%3E115+and+pp%3Apoints%3E115+and+ppp%3Apoints%3E115+and+season%3E2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

I call this trend fade the favs. teams that beat a really good team and play a really bad team after that win covers 33%(13-26) since 2015 and the o/u is 13-25-1. the lowly knicks and kings are the teams tonight.

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=po%3AWP%3E65+and+WP%3E65+and+o%3AWP%3C33+and+p%3AW+and+season%3E2014&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

Mavs are young, but have become a decent road team. going back to last season they are on a 10-1 ats and 5-6 su run on the road. pretty good su record as they were a dog in all 11 games as well. tonight they are a fav against the cavs.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DMavericks%20and%20A%20and%20date%3E%3D20190308%29%20as%20%22The%20Mavericks%20are%2010-1%20ATS%20%288.23%20ppg%29%20since%20Mar%2008%2C%202019%20on%20the%20road.%22&plot_PL=1

[kingdom]

Jazz have been a consistently solid defensive team. they are 0-6 o/u to start season scoring avg of 101 ppg and only giving up 94.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DJazz+and+date%3E%3D20190820&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

with the rockets def. they haven't been able to cover against anyone and they are 0-5 ats giving up 127 ppg.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DRockets+and+date%3E%3D20190810&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

the knicks just can't score and going back to last season are 1-8 o/u avg only 100ppg and giving up 106

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DKnicks%20and%20date%3E%3D20190407%29%20as%20%22The%20Knicks%20are%201-8%20OU%20%28-9.06%20ppg%29%20since%20Apr%2007%2C%202019.%22&plot_PL=1

[kingdom]

Lakers have been on a good run going 12-3 ats and defense has been improving this season as they are giving up just under 107 ppg in this run.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DLakers+and+date%3E%3D20190323&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

spurs defense has regressed a bit since end of last season as they are giving up 110 ppg and are 2-9 ats and 8-3 o/u

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DSpurs+and+H+and+date%3E%3D20190319&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

This trend covers 64% since 2016. i think it is safe to disregard rockets as of now with their current defense. lakers qualify also:

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=%28site%3D%3D%27away%27+and+line%2B0%3C0%29+and+p%3Apoints%3E115+and+pp%3Apoints%3E115+and+ppp%3Apoints%3E115+and+season%3E2016&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

with the rockets def. they haven't been able to cover against anyone and they are 0-5 ats giving up 127 ppg.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?s...+S+D+Q+L+%21++

same thing. rockets haven't covered yet and are a fav again tonight.

[kingdom]

two teams off to a great start as young suns are 6-0 ats so far. sixers are 5-0 su and 4-1 ats.

[kingdom]

Blazers 93-55 ats as road fav over last ten seasons. o/u is 63-81 also. blazers always worth a play as road fav.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=t%3Ateam%3DTrailblazers+and+A+and+F+and+date%3E%3D20090227&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

Wiz and pistons both trash ats. but wiz are 7-1 o/u since end of last season giving up avg of 120 ppg and going 2-6 su and ats.
Pistons are 8-2 o/u as road dog since end of last season.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28t%3Ateam%3DWizards%20and%20F%20and%20date%3E%3D20190316%29%20as%20%22The%20Wizards%20are%207-1%20OU%20%289.75%20ppg%29%20since%20Mar%2016%2C%202019%20as%20a%20favorite.%22&plot_PL=1

[kingdom]

bucks are a big away fav and these teams are covering almost 58% of the time. good progressive bet trend.

https://sportsdatabase.com/nba/query?output=default&sdql=A+and+season%3E2016+and+-11+%3C+line+%3C%3D+-6%3Fshow_games%3D200&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

road teams off a home game with a day of rest facing a team avg 20+ ft's per game are 102-61 ats (62.6%) and bucks and blazers qualify tonight.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=+A+and+rest%3D1+and+p%3AH+and+oA%28FTM%29%3E%3D20+and+date%3E%3D20150410%3Fshow_games%3D200&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

teams that made 10 or more less ft's than opponent in a win are 35-16-1 ats the following game since last season. the under is 18-33 as they hold teams to 43% shooting. lakers fit tonight.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=rest%3C2+and+p%3AW+and+p%3AF+and+p%3AFTM+%2B+10%3C%3Dpo%3AFTM+and+date%3E%3D20181005&submit=++S+D+Q+L+%21++

[kingdom]

odd trend related to Kevin Love and Cavs. when kevin love is leading scorer, cavs are 2-18 ats following game. these numbers go back to Lebron days.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28team%3DCavaliers%20and%20%28Cavaliers%3AKevin%20Love%3Ap%3Apoints%3Dmax%3Ap%3Apoints%29%20and%20date%3E%3D20171113%29%20as%20%22The%20Cavaliers%20are%202-18%20ATS%20%28-8.75%20ppg%29%20after%20Kevin%20Love%20was%20the%20high%20scorer.%22&plot_PL=1

Cavs are also 9-32 ats following a game where Love +/- is at least five more than the team. only thing i can figure is lack of consistency following a good game and they are dependent on him following game.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28team%3DCavaliers%20and%20%28Cavaliers%3AKevin%20Love%3Ap%3Aplus%20minus%3E%3D5%2Bp%3Apoints-po%3Apoints%29%20and%20date%3E%3D20170523%29%20as%20%22The%20Cavaliers%20are%209-32-2%20ATS%20%28-5.78%20ppg%29%20after%20Kevin%20Love%20had%20a%20plus/minus%20at%20least%205%20more%20than%20the%20team.%22&plot_PL=1

[kingdom]

going back to last season, teams with over ten t/o's not including steals are 1-17 ats following game. bulls vs. lakers tonight.

https://killersports.com/nba/query?sdql=%28H%20and%20D%20and%20p%3AA%20and%2010%3C%28p%3ATO%20-%20po%3Asteals%29%20and%20date%3E%3D20180214%29%20as%20%22Teams%20are%201-17%20ATS%20%28-9.22%20ppg%29%20as%20a%20home%20dog%20off%20a%20road%20game%20in%20which%20they%20had%20more%20than%2010%20refereed%20turnovers.%20%2820191105%2C%20%27Bulls%27%29%22&plot_PL=1