SJ55 WNBA picks

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 09:22 AM

I am a little confused on this Shock/Sun game as covers says 68% are on Conn and wagerline says 93% are on Det.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 09:30 AM

The O/U in the Mercury/Monarchs game is also interesting. It opened at 172.5. The two totals for these teams this year were 167.5 and 170. This is obviously a big jump from the first two totals and has me leaning on the over big time. Phoenix has gone over in every road game thusfar except one against the Monarchs. The Monarchs have gone over the total in their last two home games. Phoenis averages 91ppg and gives up 88ppg (179 total). Consensus is about 50/50 on this O/U.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 09:47 AM

The Monarchs spankeddd Phoenix by 19 @ home June 12th. The very next day the Monarchs traveled to Phoenix to play them there. Now I thought that for sure Phoenix would pound Sacramento after that horrific losss and look at what happened. Sacramento is a terrible road team and it took Phoenix OT and 115 points to beat Sacramento @ home (most points ever scored in a game). I am liking Monarchs big time here and there is also RLM. 60% on Phoenix and line goes to Sac -2. I like this bet the best so far.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 02:23 PM

Sacramento -1 Booked

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 03:40 PM

There is a whole lotta movement on that Mystics game, from -2.5 to -4. Wagerline says 67% public and Covers says 51% so I don't think its that big a public play. LA finally won their 1st road game and they aren't really desperate for this win. The Mystics are desperate for this win as they have dropped their last two games and 4 out of last 5. The Mystics also lost their last home game and I can't see them losing two in a row and definitely can't see LA winning two straight on the road. I think that the Mystics is the right play.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 05:49 PM

Mystics -3.5 (hook buy) Booked WIN

HoulihansTX · 07-11-09, 06:04 PM

Originally posted by sweetjones55

At first look at these numbers a few thing stand out. The consensus numbers on the Shock are downright scary. 93% is a huge number and the line has stayed flat at Shock +6. I would have to lean Sun -6 just on this fact. There is RLM on the Mercury as the public is on PHX(60%) yet the line goes down from Mercury +1.5 to +2. I don't think I can find myself taking the Monarchs against possibly the best team in the WNBA but if there's more RLM I may.

My gut leans are Mystics and Sun thusfar.

Now your cooking. The none line movement means they didnt move the line early enough. If moved, the odds would be tremendously longer than the original, allowing for the casinos to be middled.

The public along with the sharps, jumped this line early. Casinos got btich slapped w/ that weak original line.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 06:07 PM

Appreciate the comments/insights Houli. Keep em coming.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 11:29 PM

July 11th Results

Mystics -3.5 WIN
Monarchs -1 LOSS

5-3 Overall YTD

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 11:30 PM

I lost on that Monarchs game heavy. It took a 12 point comeback, 36 point quarter, and game winning shot to beat me so I am not too upset. There are just some things you can't cap and expect, its the WNBA. O well I'm going to bounce back and really hurt my books head in the next 5 days. Mark my words.

sweetjones55 · 07-11-09, 11:43 PM

OPENING LINES (pinnacle)

Lynx+7.5 SA Silver Stars-7.5 O/U 152

Chicago Sky+11 Seattle Storm-11 O/U139.5

Storm are undefeated at home and the Sky are an absolute mess. I am definitely leaning Storm on this game and the 1st half Storm. The last win the Sky have was @ home against sacramento and they barely won by 2 and Sylvia Fowles played.

sweetjones55 · 07-12-09, 04:16 AM

On 1st look I am also leaning the Lynx +7.5. That is a lot of points to give a team that is just as good as their opponent. I like the consensus numbers to as 40% are on the Lynx yet the line as dropped from +7.5 to +7.

sweetjones55 · 07-12-09, 10:15 AM

Current Lines

Lynx +7
Storm -11.5

Both games moved a 0.5 point and support my leans.

xXxBallin21xXx · 07-12-09, 12:39 PM

wassup sj. Watchu think bout the o/u for sea/chi?

sweetjones55 · 07-12-09, 03:25 PM

I am leaning over 139 in the Seattle/Chicago game. The last two totals between these two teams were 147.5 and 142.5 and both those games went way under. This total is a lot lower because of this and I think the line is a little off trying to compensate for these two underes.

xXxBallin21xXx · 07-12-09, 03:28 PM

u may be right with that. Thanks for ur reply.

sweetjones55 · 07-12-09, 03:33 PM

Public is on the over and the line just dropped from 139 to 138.5. I think I may lean under if the line drops a little more. If Sylvia Fowles is back and starts then I think the under may be the stronger play with this RLM.

sweetjones55 · 07-12-09, 03:59 PM

On second look I am definitely leaning under 139 now. These two teams already met up this year and the O/U was 147.5 and they scored 121 (way under). They now meet and the line opened at 139. This sounds very low and the public is pounding the over 60%public. The line reacted to this by dropping to 138.5, nice RLM. Fowles may be back tonight and here added D could be the key factor to this total. It sounds to easy to take this over 139. Seattle has gone way under in the last two home games and the Sky has also gone way under in their last two games.

linglingfool · 07-12-09, 04:04 PM

Even if Fowles is back tonight, there's no way she's going to be 100%, especially considering her problem is a knee injury. After watching the Sun get absolutely blown out the other night for a total of 137 (only scoring 54), I'm liking the under here too.

xXxBallin21xXx · 07-12-09, 05:55 PM

now you're thinking.

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 11:08 PM

Alright boys was gone for the last couple of days but will have some plays up tommrow. Leaving to Vegas Thursday to go watch my freind play in the Summer league but will try to post some picks this weekend.

Current Lines

San Antonio Silver Stars+4 Over 144
Washington Mystics-4 -110 Under 144

Atlanta Dream+4½ -110 Over 166½
Minnesota Lynx-4½ -110 Under 166½

Chicago Sky+9½ -110 Over 143½
Indiana Fever-9½ -110 Under 143½

Sacramento Monarchs+7 -110 Over 178½
Phoenix Mercury-7 -110 Under 178½

Detroit Shock+9½ -110 Over 143

Seattle Storm-9½ -110 Under 143

Public is heavy on Minnesota and Phoenix. Everything else is pretty much 50/50 or close to it according to wagerline.

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 11:27 PM

I had a feeling without even looking that there would be Early RLM with the Monarchs. Sure enough the line opened at Monarchs +7.5 and with 66% on Phoenix the line has dropped to +7. Sacramento has BIG TIME DOUBLE REVENGE in this game after losing in OT and on the game winner last game. I think I may be getting my Monarchs money back from the other night tommrow. Phoenix struggles with the Monarchs and I think with a point buy to +8.5 Monarchs can be a very solid play. I will also look into a 1st half Monarchs play.

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 11:30 PM

I am also definitely leaning Mystics. I can't see the Silverstars winning two straight road games. They are 1-4 ATS this year with the only winning coming in their last road game @ Minne, they lost to minne the next day @ home. The Mystics already beat the Silverstars this year on the road by 2 and SA was a DOMINANT home team last year. Mystics are 3-1 @ home so far and their only loss was to PHX who IMO is the best team right now. This game is at 11:30 AM.

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 11:41 PM

The Fever looks like a free chicken dinner 1st half and game. The Sky are downright terrible and the Fever look like a championship contender no doubt about it. I can't see the Sky getting the cover in this game unless it is a big time back door cover. The Fever should dominate 1st quarter half and game. I will look into taking all 3 of these plays. If you notice this year, most of the time with double digit lines the heavy favorite has covered rather easily.

sweetjones55 · 07-14-09, 11:49 PM

So very early leans are Monarchs, Mystics, and Fever.

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 08:14 AM

The Monarchs just dropped to +6.5 with only 18% backing them. I love this play.. again lol.

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 08:33 AM

77%public on the Mystics, I hate riding with the public.

RoagBettor · 07-15-09, 08:37 AM

Nice analysis sj

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 09:47 AM

Monarchs +7.5 Booked

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 09:49 AM

Appreciate it Roag. GL with that parlay.

Reload · 07-15-09, 11:52 AM

Good luck with today's card, sweet!

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 03:53 PM

Let's go Monarchs, its time to turn it up.

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 04:45 PM

Monarchs didn't get it done but I hit up phx 2nd half team total over and phx/sac 2nd half over. Time to take a good look at this Seattle/Detroit game.

sweetjones55 · 07-15-09, 04:50 PM

My initial lean is Storm and the Under. Deanna Nolan is out for Detroit and she averages 14ppg and is their leading assister. The Storm are coming off a loss @ home and will be motivated to play Detroit because of this last loss. They will come out hot and pull out to a big lead. The Storm have won 4 out of their 6 home games by double digits already. Detroit is just a very bad team. Det is 3-7ATS overall and 1-4 ATS on the road. Seattle is 5-1 @ home. Vegas is trying to scare away bettors with this big line against the defending champs but I can see this game getting ugly quick. LEAN STORM game -9.5, Storm 1st half -5, Storm 1st quarter -3.

xXxBallin21xXx · 07-15-09, 04:59 PM

Sj watchu think of 2nites game? This one is tough since Sea comin off of a lose against one of the worst team and playing at home. Det just recently defeated Conn so theyre in the zone right now, and of course theyre not gonna go easy against Sea. 9.5 is alot against Det, but Sea is looking to attack. I am leaning more on the over 141.5 but I also like Det 9.5 (guts telling me Sea -9.5). Let me know what u think.