SJ55 WNBA picks

[sweetjones55]

Just wanted to start up my own thread keeping track of my WNBA picks. GL to all who follow.

[sweetjones55]

Leans for Tuesdays games, Storm Dream Lynx Sky. Lines should be out later today.

[SportsTerminator]

I'm liking the Storm but Jackson is probable...

[sweetjones55]

Current lines

San Antonio Silver Stars+6 -110 Seattle Storm-6 -110 Under 142½ -110

Connecticut Sun+1 -110 Over 157½ 654Atlanta Dream-1 -110

Washington Mystics+5 -110 Over 163½ -110 656Minnesota Lynx-5

Sky+6 -110 Over 147 -110 658Sacramento Monarchs-6 -110 Under 147 -110

[sweetjones55]

142.5 sounds low for the Storm, especially if Lauren plays. This game can get VERY ugly IMO. SA hasn't been on the road since June 21 and the Storm need this win as they have three straight. A 1st half play may be wise but I need to check out the two teams 1st half records so far.

I am liking the Sky, hopefully get it close to +8. This is definitely my strongest lean thusfar. Sacramento is down right terrible and they should not be favored by 6 in this game.

Dream -1 also looks juicy. The Dream already beat them on the road once this year. This will be the 3rd road game in a row for Connecticut. I can't see them going 2-1 on this road trip, they are just not that good a team.


I don't like the Lynx with all the public money on them.

[SportsTerminator]

"Sacramento almost beat Chicago in Chicago. They had a what 6 point lead slip in the final minutes of the 4th. They were basically leading the whole game surprisingly. But they ended up losing by 2. Now they return home, I can see this as a revenge type game. Homecourt momentum should be a big factor too. And Chicago's Fowles is questionable." I'm leaning that Sacramento will win. Love the sig by the way.

[corona]

i sat through almost all of that last sky/monarchs game (very bad idea). chicago couldn't have played any worse...and they still won. the commentator was going on and on the whole game about how it was ridiculously sloppy compared to their usual play. monarchs are coming off a big win against what had been a hot team (minnesota)...and its the first game home after a 5 game trip. meanwhile chicago's coming off a drubbing by the stars. there's your emotional edge right there.

plus its the B bet on the wnba version of the jm system. B bets are 18-4 since 2001.

[sweetjones55]

Appreciate the comments guys.

The dream have RLM, I've seen all I need to see

Dream -1.5 Booked

[sweetjones55]

Sky +6.5 Booked

[Mc Grumpy33]

Going with Stars +7 today...GL to all!!

[sweetjones55]

Double Digit lines are hard to come by in the WNBA.

Since 2004, the Mercury are 7-2 ATS when the spread is double digits. Fowles should be out tonight. I have seen a few double digit lines this year and the favorite has usually covered. I am leaning Mercury since the Sky are on the tail end of back to back. Vegas is trying to scare you away with this double digit line but the truth is that this game will probably get ugly. The Mercury have already won five games this season by double digits out of twelve. The Sky have lost every game by double digits except one which they lost by 9.

[sweetjones55]

Mercury -10 Booked.

July 8th Results
Dream -1.5 Booked WIN
Sky +6.5 Booked LOSS

1-1 Overall

[sweetjones55]

July 9th Results

Mercury -10 WIN

2-1 Overall

[sweetjones55]

No official plays from me today yet. I am tailing CK/SM on the Monarchs and may put a small wager on the sparks and sparks 1st half. I am looking into the totals now.

[sweetjones55]

NY/LA O/U 139.5. The line opened at at 141.5. The line has dropped to 139 even though according to covers.com the public is on the over. I think that this under might be the strongest play of the day. Last year the O/U in both games was 149, a significant 7.5 point drop.

The only LA games that have gone over were against Phoenix (duh) and Minnesota when Seimone Augustus was still playing. This is the stat that has me most convinced about this under. Also, I just love playing unders in WNBA, the scoring when you have two mediocre teams a lot of times is just atrocious.

[sweetjones55]

NY/LA Under 139.5 Booked

[sweetjones55]

July 9th Results

NY/LA Under 139.5 WIN

3-1 Overall YTD

[Reload]

Keep it up, SJ!

[sweetjones55]

Keep it up, SJ!

Will do! Thanks for the feedback. The games look real tough to me today.

Current lines

SA +3 Minne -3 O/U 157.5 (2.5 point jump in the O/U this morning from 155)

Fever -4 Sky +4 O/U 140

My gut feeling leans are Minnesota -3 and the Under 140 in the Sky game.

SA is a very bad road team. They are 0-4 so far this year. Minnesota beat them twice last year by double digits as a underdog in both games (7-3 last 10). Minnesota is 1-1 in this current 3 game homestand and I can't se them going 1-2. They are a flat out better team than SA and home teams dominate in the WNBA, especially when playing below average road teams. The line opened at -3 and I woud like to see the line go up to -3.5/4 on most sites. I will probably lay off this game because the consensus numbers are just too big for my liking, 90% of public on the Lynx.

140 sounds so low but it's the WNBA and it is very low for a reason. The line opened at +3.5 which means that vegas belives that the Sky will be competitive in this game despite the recent bad streak and Fowles being out. I think that if the Sky are going to have a chance that the score will have to be in the 130 range (my guess would be like 67-64).

The Sky has been an over machine so far this year going over in 9 out of 12 and the Fever have gone over in 6 out of 10. It seems soooo easy to take the over.
Look at the Points Per Game/Points Allowed for both teams. Do any combination with these numbers and you will always come to a conclusion that this game will go way over 140. If both teams score what they score then you got 148. If both teams allow what they normally allow then you got 150.
Indiana- PPG: 74.4 PA: 69.6
Chicago- PPG: 74.8 PA: 80.0

It makes no sense on paper to take the under, which is why I love it.

[sweetjones55]

I would definitely wait on the Sky Under 140 because the public will pound this over for sure.

[sweetjones55]

Last year, the Sky and Fever scored 128 and 123 in their two matchups. The O/U was 136.5 and 142.5

[linglingfool]

Last year, the Sky and Sun scored 128 and 123 in their two matchups. The O/U was 136.5 and 142.5

Do you mean Sky and Fever?

[sweetjones55]

Yes, I'd love some more insight other than just team corrections.

[linglingfool]

Sorry, didn't mean to be rude or anything, I just wanted to be sure you weren't using an analogy of how far under the O/U the Sky went against a different team. You're doing great work, keep it up!

[sweetjones55]

Sorry, didn't mean to be rude or anything, I just wanted to be sure you weren't using an analogy of how far under the O/U the Sky went against a different team. You're doing great work, keep it up!

Thanks I appreciate it.

[haserfauld]

90% of the money on minny and we get some RLM, my book has lynx at -2.5 now ???

[sweetjones55]

I would definitely lay off Minny now as theres is HUGE RLM. I am going to take a hard look SA now. I have never seen the public so heavy on one team, 90%. Vegas is just baiting even more people to jump on the already-full Lynx train by dropping the line 0.5 point.

[linglingfool]

Just an FYI SJ, sbrlines is only showing 67% on the Lynx ML, and 55% on the RL. Not sure where they get their data from, but just another input point for you.

[sweetjones55]

I think Sportsinsights is a little more accurate. Either way there is at least 70% on Minne and the line has dropped from -3 to -2.5 which is enough to convince me that if I were to make a play, it would be on SA.

[sweetjones55]

The Sky/Fever Under and Sky for the game will both be official plays. I am just waiting to see if I can get the under at 142 and the Sky at +5. I can't pass up on the Sky being the home team and catching points.

[sweetjones55]

Sky +4.5 Booked

[sweetjones55]

Fever/Sky Under 140.5 Booked

[sweetjones55]

July 10th Results

Fever/Sky Under 140.5 WIN
Sky +4.5 LOSS

4-2 YTD

[sweetjones55]

A ton of games today. Should be a good day.

Opening Numbers

Sparks +4
Mystics -4

Shock +6/Sun -6

Dream +4/Liberty -4

Mercury +1.5/Monarchs -1.5

Current Lines

Sparks +3/Mysitcs -3

Shock +6/Sun -6

Dream +4/Liberty -4

Mercury +2/Monarchs -2

Consensus Numbers:

50/50 Sparks/Mystics
93/7 Sun/Shock
29/71 Dream/Liberty
60/40 Mercury/Monarchs

[sweetjones55]

At first look at these numbers a few thing stand out. The consensus numbers on the Shock are downright scary. 93% is a huge number and the line has stayed flat at Shock +6. I would have to lean Sun -6 just on this fact. There is RLM on the Mercury as the public is on PHX(60%) yet the line goes down from Mercury +1.5 to +2. I don't think I can find myself taking the Monarchs against possibly the best team in the WNBA but if there's more RLM I may.

My gut leans are Mystics and Sun thusfar.