Zwer23 NBA Picks

[Zwer23]

Today:
Heat @ Thunder Under 201,5 @1,9
Predicted score: 93 - 100
Heat L5 on the road all against west teams:
98 - 95 - Nuggets
90 - 104 - Clippers
103 - 111 - Warriors very high pace
83 - 98 - Jazz
103 - 95 - Suns
Thunder L5 home against defensive slow tempo teams:
112 - 94
96 - 96 OT
103 - 87
90 - 93
98 - 103
HEAT Trends:
Under is 4-1 in Heat last 5 games following a ATS win.
Under is 7-2 in Heat last 9 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 21-7-1 in Heat last 29 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 12-4 in Heat last 16 Sunday games.
THUNDER Trends:
Under is 10-2 in Thunder last 12 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 10-3 in Thunder last 13 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
Under is 10-3 in Thunder last 13 games following a ATS win.
HEAT vs. THUNDER
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

Heat are 4 - 12 O/U on the road with 93,3 - 94,2 points
Thunder are 9 - 15 O/U home with 107,9 - 99 points
Expect a Miami style slow pace game with Whiteside defending inside and chasing away thunder players from driving, which is very important for under. Thunder also plays home with very good Deff efficency @99,1, Heat with 100,8 Deff eff on the road, combine that with slower pace and we should be hitting under with ease.

Miami beat the Thunder at home 97-95 on Dec. 3 with Whiteside patrolling the lane, but he didn't force them to the perimeter. Oklahoma City did miss 12 from 3-point range, but its 16 attempts were more than five below its season average and it owned a 44-35 rebounding advantage while scoring 50 points inside.
For Heat, Dwyane Wade (shoulders) is a game-time call vs. the Thunder on Sunday, Dragic is OUT, that means less points for Heat, I expect score around 101 - 90 for OKC...
Bet Amount: 2 Units

[Zwer23]

Heat @ Thunder Under 201,5 WIN + 1,8 Units

Today:
Nets @ Raptors Under 197 @1,926 5dimes
Predicted score: 91 - 100

Last game: 74 - 91 for Raptors
Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 road games.
Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-0 in Nets last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-1 in Nets last 8 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.

Bet Amount: 1 Unit

[Zwer23]

Zwer23:
Rockets @ Clippers Under 209,5 @ 1,9
Predicted score: 100 - 102
2Units

[Zwer23]

T'Wolves @ Pelicans Over 202,5 @1,892
Predicted score: 104 - 102
Over is 5-1 in Timberwolves last 6 road games.
Over is 8-3 in Timberwolves last 11 vs. NBA Southwest.
Over is 5-2 in Timberwolves last 7 road games vs. a team with a losing home record.
Over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in New Orleans.
Pelicans games home vs similar teams:
109 - 107 Hornets
115 - 89 Trailblazers
107 - 105 Wizards
98 - 115 Nuggets
Wolves last 4 on the road:
113 - 93
107 -104
109 - 99
115 - 90
Bet Amount: 3 Units

[Zwer23]

• T'Wolves @ Pelicans Over 202,5 WIN +2,67Units
• Rockets @ Clippers Under 209,5 LOSS -2Units
• Nets @ Raptors Under 197 LOSS -1Units

YTD: 2 - 2 - 0 +1,47 Units

[Zwer23]

Celtics @ Raptors Over200 @1,877
Predicted score: 101,5 - 104,5


Last matchup: 103 - 113 @ BOS
Last two games in Toronto last season:
104 - 104 and OT
109 - 96


Over is 4-0 in Celtics last 4 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Raptors last 5 games following a ATS win.
Over is 10-3 in Raptors last 13 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-0 in Raptors last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.


Celtics away play 97 pace with average score of 103,4 - 101,1,
Raptors home play average 102,5 - 97,3
This will be a fast game because Celtics will push tempo, and by last few matchups, I expect good chances for Over.


Bet Amount: 2 Units

[frugalgambler]

Nice writeups and picks.

[Zwer23]

Celtics @ Raptors Over200 @1,877 WIN +1,75 Units

YTD: 3 - 2 - 0 +3,22 Units

[Zwer23]

Spurs @ Suns -15,5 @1,95
Predicted score: 109 - 86


Last 2 matchups this season:
SA 112 - PHO 79
SA 98 - PHO 84
and that was when PHX played better and didn't have so many injuries.
Suns lost 9 of last 10 and 1 - 14 last 15
Minnesota beat them by 30
Celtics by 14
Lakers by 20
Kings by 23
so, there is no reason Spurs wont beat them by 20+


By average, Spurs play 101,8 - 90,2 on the road, best defence and point spread in the league,
last two weeks Suns dropped to worst team in NBA and they play 98,1 - 111,1 by average.


Spurs Last 5 games away against worst NBA teams:
79 - 106 @ Nets +27
98 - 123 @ Bucks +25
83 - 108 @ Wolves +25
68 - 119 @ Sixers +51
80 - 91 @ Nuggets +11


Suns are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 vs. Western Conference.
Suns are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.
Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team with a winning % below .400.
Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Spurs are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. NBA Pacific.
Spurs are 3-1-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.


Bet Amount: 1 Unit

[Zwer23]

Clippers @ Cavs Over 202 @1,909
Predicted score: 104 - 100


Clippers on the road by average 103,8 - 101,6
Cavs home with 104,3 - 97,5


Two very good offensive teams, I expect a lot of points and good chances for Over!


Cavs home with best teams in the league:
98 - 132 vs. Warriors
122 - 100 vs. Raptors
104 - 100 vs. Thunder
109 -97 vs. Hawks
101 - 97 vs. Pacers


Clippers on the road with best teams:
107 - 97 @ Rockets
115 - 107 @ Spurs
83 - 80 @ Bulls
112 - 108 @ Warriors
118 - 108 @ Mavs


Over is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Over is 9-3-1 in Clippers last 13 games after allowing more than 125 points in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Cavaliers last 5 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of greater than .600.


Bet Amount: 1Unit

[Zwer23]

Clippers @ Cavs Over 202 @1,909 WIN +0,91Units
Spurs @ Suns -15,5 @1,95 WIN +0,95Units



YTD: 5 - 2 - 0 +5,08 Units

[Zwer23]

---- Zwer23: ----
****** Spurs @ Lakers -15,5 @1,95 ******
Predicted score: 110 - 88


Last matchups this season:
SA 109 - LAL 87


Lakers lost last two home:
93 - 112 vs. Kings -19
95 - 112 vs. Rockets -17


By average, Spurs play 102,6 - 90,1 on the road, best defence and point spread in the league.


The red-hot San Antonio Spurs take aim at their 13th consecutive victory when they visit the
lowly Los Angeles Lakers on Friday. San Antonio hasn't lost since Christmas Day and has posted
nine double-digit victories — including six by 20 or more points — during its latest winning streak.
source: Covers


San Antonio has won 14 of 17 over the Lakers, including a opening-round sweep in the 2013 playoffs.
The Spurs have also claimed the past five road matchups including the postseason.
The Lakers have lost five of six at home and Bryant hasn't helped too much lately,
averaging 8.0 points on 30.0 percent shooting in the past five overall contests.
This matchup with the Spurs falls on the 10th anniversary of his 81-point performance against Toronto.
source: VegasInsider


Spurs Last 6 games away against worst NBA teams:
89 - 117 @ Suns +28
79 - 106 @ Nets +27
98 - 123 @ Bucks +25
83 - 108 @ Wolves +25
68 - 119 @ Sixers +51
80 - 91 @ Nuggets +11


- Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
- Spurs are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. NBA Pacific.
- Spurs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games following a straight up win of more than 10 points.
- Lakers are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home.
- Lakers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up loss.
- Lakers are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 vs. NBA Southwest.


Bet Amount: 1 Unit

[Zwer23]

---- Zwer23: ----
****** JAZZ @ NETS Under 190 @1,877******
Predicted score: 94 - 87


Jazz road games vs bad teams:
95 - 95 @ Hornets - OT
74 - 86 @ Lakers
94 - 80 @ Wolves
84 - 96 @ Nuggets
71 - 99 @ Sixers


Nets home games vs. lower pace teams or similar teams as Jazz
87 - 83 vs. Pistons
82 - 105 vs. Magic
98 - 104 vs. Heat
85 - 100 vs. Wolves
74 - 91 vs. Raptors
77 - 83 vs. Magic
110 - 104 vs. Knicks


Main reason for this bet is Jazz road average of 90,7 Pace with average score of 94 - 97,2
Both teams are bad offensivly, Jazz at 94 per game away and Nets at 94,3 home, combine that with
Gobert defensive presence againt Lopez and low pace and we can expect low scoring game.


Under is 4-0 in Jazz last 4 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 11-1 in Jazz last 12 vs. NBA Atlantic.
Under is 10-3-1 in Jazz last 14 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 5-2-1 in Jazz last 8 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 10-2 in Nets last 12 vs. NBA Northwest.
Under is 5-2 in Nets last 7 home games.


Bet Amount: 1 Unit

[Zwer23]

Spurs @ Lakers -15,5 @1,95 LOSS -1Unit
JAZZ @ NETS Under 190 LOSS -1Unit


No luck in spurs game as they lead by 23 in 4th, and 21 4,04 until end, and then scored only 2 points in 4minutes


Jazz- Nets game was close too, but tooo many points in 3Q...


YTD: 5 - 4 - 0 +3,08 Units

[Zwer23]

Zwer23:
Knicks @ Hornets Under199 @1,892
Predicted score: 95 - 99

Last two matchups:
102 - 94 @ NY
95 - 93 @ CHA

Under is 8-2 in Hornets last 10 games playing on 0 days rest.

Hornets play home with average of 101 - 97,3, and last few games from Hornets home vs teams like NY are:
95 - 95 vs. Jazz + OT
92 - 105 vs. Bucks (in last few games they are good)
107 - 84 vs. Hawks
89 - 102 vs Celtics
93 - 98 vs. Celtics
90 - 90 vs. Raptors + OT
104 - 84 vs. Pistons

Bet Amount: 3 Units

[Zwer23]

Knicks @ Hornets Under199 WIN +2,67 Units

YTD: 6 - 4 - 0 +5,75 Units

For more free bets check my FB page BetsKillerAnalysis.

[Zwer23]

Today:
Celtics @ Sixers Over 205,5 @1,877
Predicted score: 107 - 100


Celtics road pace with 97 and Sixers home pace with 96,3,
this should be a high pace game with at least 210 points in total.


Last 5 games, Celtics average 113,6 - 110,8 points, playing with 98 pace, 113,8 Off Eff and 111,2 Deff Eff.


Last 4 Celtics road games:
115 - 109
113 - 118 (OT)
117 - 119
120 - 114
Last 6 Sixers home games:
114 - 89
111-115 (OT)
85 - 95 (vs. Cavs)
95 - 108
98 - 126
109 - 99


Over is 5-0 in Celtics last 5 road games.
Over is 4-1 in Celtics last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Over is 4-1 in 76ers last 5 games playing on 0 days rest.
Over is 18-6 in 76ers last 24 home games.
Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Philadelphia.


Bet Amount: 2Units

[Zwer23]

Zwer23:
** Celtics @ Wizards Under 213 @1,9 **
Predicted score: 107 - 104
Celtics average 104 - 101,3 on the road
Wizards with 102,8 - 104 home
Celtics L5 away with teams like Wizards:
98 - 98 OT @ Mavs
117 - 119 @ Wizards
120 - 114 @ Knicks
101 - 98 @ Grizzlies
93 - 99 @ Pistons
Wizards L5 vs teams like Celtics:
98 - 108 vs Trailblazers
88 - 97 vs Raptors
91 - 108 vs Clippers
109 - 101 vs Hornets
103 - 109 vs Rockets
In last games that ended up 117 - 119 there were a lot of free throws and quick baskets, I do not think this will happen again.

Bet Amount: 2 Units

[Zwer23]

Zwer23: Game2
** Hawks @ Nuggets Under 208 @ 1,892 **
Predicted score: 104 - 101


Hawks on the road: 100,1 - 101
Nuggets Home: 100,8 - 104,7


L5 Hawks games away:
98 - 95
91 - 88
98 - 104
95 - 95 OT
107 - 84


Nuggets L5 Home:
104 - 101
101 - 102
104 - 110
129 - 126
95 - 98


Under is 8-2 in Hawks last 10 vs. Western Conference.
Under is 6-2 in Hawks last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400.
Under is 10-4-1 in Nuggets last 15 vs. NBA Southeast.


** Bet Amount: 1Unit **

[Zwer23]

Celtics @ Sixers Over 205,5 - LOSS -2Units
Celtics @ Wizards Under 213 - WIN +1,8Units
Hawks @ Nuggets Under 208 - LOSS -1Unit

YTD: 7 - 6 - 0 +4,55 Units

[NCAH]

Keep at it bud. Appreciate your analyses

[Zwer23]

Thx man Soon I will have something for today

[Zwer23]

Clippers @ Pacers Under 208 @1,909
Predicted score: 100 - 99


Last Matchup @ LA: LAC 91 - 103 Pacers


Clippers with 103,8 - 102,1 points on the road
Pacers with 103,4 - 97,5 home


Clippers last few on the road with teams like IND:
112 - 94 @ Raptors
88 - 116 @ Knicks
98 - 109 @ Blazers
117 - 122 @ Hornets
94 - 94 @ Pistons - OT
83 - 80 @ Bulls


Indiana last few home ws best teams like LAC:
93 - 87 vs Hawks
106 - 90 vs Raptors
96 - 83 vs Heat
104 - 94 vs Bulls
100 - 98 vs Celtics


Under is 5-1 in Clippers last 6 games following a straight up loss.
Under is 13-3 in Clippers last 16 when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 4-1 in Clippers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 games following a straight up loss of more than 10 points.
Under is 6-2 in Pacers last 8 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.


Bet Amount: 2,5 Units

[Zwer23]

Clippers @ Pacers Under 208 WIN +2,27 Units


YTD: 8 - 6 - 0 +6,82 Units

[NCAH]

Nice!

[Zwer23]

Nuggets @ Celtics Under 215 @1,892
Predicted score: 99 - 105


Nuggets by average play 97,3 - 101,3 on the road,
Celtics with 102,6 - 98 home


Nuggets on the road vs teams like Celtics:
91 - 84 @ Grizzlies
110 - 103 @ Blazers
105 - 106 @ Raptors
99 - 90 @ Bulls
92 - 81 @ Mavs


Celtics home vs. teams like Nuggets
97 - 100 vs. Nets
117 - 103 vs. Suns
104 - 112 vs. Lakers
113 - 99 vs Wolves
84 - 80 vs Sixers
111 - 78 vs Wizards


Last two matchups:
104 - 100 @ BOS
99 - 100 @ DEN


Bet Amount: 1,5Units

[Zwer23]

Nuggets @ Celtics Under 215 WIN +1,34 Units


YTD: 9 - 6 - 0 +8,16 Units

[Zwer23]

Zwer23 pick of the day:
*** Hawks @ Pacers Under 203 @1,952 (5dimes) ***
Predicted score: 94 - 100 (77% Under)


Last 4 matchups:
IND 93 - 87 ATL
ATL 110 - 91 IND
IND 92 - 108 ATL
ATL 102 - 92 IND


Pacers play one of the best defences home with 100 Deff Eff, with average score of 102,7 - 97,2.


Last Pacers game home is 89 - 91 with LAC


L5 Hawks games on the road vs defensive teams:
107 - 84
93 - 87
100 - 103
95 - 98
101 - 109


L5 Pacers Home vs. teams like Hawks:
89 - 91
94 - 82
93 - 87
106 - 90
104 - 92


Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 overall.
Under is 6-1 in Hawks last 7 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 8-3 in Pacers last 11 home games.
Under is 10-4 in Pacers last 14 games following a straight up loss.


Bet Amount: 1,5 Units

[Zwer23]

Hawks @ Pacers Under 203 - PUSH

YTD: 9 - 6 - 1 +8,16 Units

[Zwer23]

Cavs @ Pistons Under 208,5 @1,9
Predicted score: 97 - 94


Cavs play average of 98,7 - 94,2 ont he road with 99,5 Deff Eff
which is second best after Spurs.


Last matchup: 104 - 99 @ DET
Cavs are in revenge mode and they will play the best they can defensively as they usualy do on the road.


Cavs on the road vs. similar teams:
95 - 95 OT @ Mavs
77 - 91 @ Rockets
77 - 89 @ Celtics
99 - 84 @ Heat
90 - 95 @ Hornets


Pistons home vs similar teams:
99 - 109 vs Spurs
94 -94 vs Clippers
118 - 96 vs. Pacers
101 - 111 vs. Bulls
113 - 95 vs. Warriors


Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last 4 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 7-1 in Cavaliers last 8 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 12-2 in Cavaliers last 14 vs. Eastern Conference.
Under is 5-1 in Cavaliers last 6 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.
Under is 7-3 in Pistons last 10 games vs. a team with a winning % above .600.
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings in Detroit.

Bet Amount: 1,5 Units

[NCAH]

Cavs trying to play at a higher pace which makes me second guess this but at the same time they score less on the road and pick up the D as a result. I like it

[Zwer23]

Cavs trying to play at a higher pace which makes me second guess this but at the same time they score less on the road and pick up the D as a result. I like it

I took this into account, even if they play littlebit faster, I think there is still big gap, because LeBron wont change over night, he likes to slow down and jab step and go one on one, time flies by then, and even with faster pace, last few games their pace were on average 93,87, it is still far from 99 from Celtics or other similar teams.
Add 10 points (5 to every team) in every Cleveland game I took into consideration, it is still under.

[NCAH]

I took this into account, even if they play littlebit faster, I think there is still big gap, because LeBron wont change over night, he likes to slow down and jab step and go one on one, time flies by then, and even with faster pace, last few games their pace were on average 93,87, it is still far from 99 from Celtics or other similar teams.
Add 10 points (5 to every team) in every Cleveland game I took into consideration, it is still under.

Very true. Thanks

[Zwer23]

Too many points last night, they were just on fire in 1st Half, and even pace wasnt a problem, it was too many 3's and FT's...
Cavs @ Pistons Under 208,5 LOSS -1,5 Units


YTD: 9 - 7 - 1 +6,66 Units

Today:
Kings @ Grizzlies Under 206,5 @1,892
Predicted score: 99 - 103


Last 4 matchups:


SAC 89 - 103 MEM
MEM 97 - 83 SAC
SAC 102 - 90 MEM
SAC 85 - 97 MEM


Grizzlies last 7 home:
103 - 83
100 - 100 OT
101 - 99
103 - 95
91 - 107
101 - 98
91 - 84


Under is 4-0 in Kings last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Under is 5-1 in Kings last 6 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 4-1 in Kings last 5 when their opponent scores 100 points or more in their previous game.
Under is 6-0 in Grizzlies last 6 vs. a team with a losing straight up record.
Over is 16-5-1 in Grizzlies last 22 games playing on 1 days rest.
Under is 20-7 in Grizzlies last 27 home games vs. a team with a road winning % of less than .400.
Under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.


Bet Amount: 1 Unit

[Zwer23]

Nuggets @ Pacers Over 208,5 @1,892
Predicted score: 102 - 109


Nuggets last 6 games:
113 - 117
111 - 103
105 - 119
104 -101
101 - 102
104 - 110


Last matchup:
DEN 129 - 126 IND


Pacers home with teams like nuggets:
104 - 118 vs WAS
116 - 97 vs. Suns
116 - 120 vs. Bucks
106 - 108 vs. Kings
123 - 86 vs. Bucks


Over is 4-0 in Nuggets last 4 vs. a team with a winning straight up record.
Over is 6-1 in Nuggets last 7 games following a ATS win.
Over is 5-1 in Pacers last 6 games playing on 1 days rest.
Over is 4-1 in Pacers last 5 vs. NBA Northwest.
Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings.


Bet Amount: 1,5Units