2015-16 JM NBA Thread

[Wallco99]

Thanks. Post amended. Not my finest 24 hrs....

Quite alright. I know all about the complexities of regular update posting.

[Kev the Brit]

snip>
** The Denver bonus play did NOT qualify as an (A) bet as stated in Kevin's update.

According to the latest pdf (2014), the pick must lose SU to qualify for a bonus play. I think that's about the only thing I got right today...

[Wallco99]

According to the latest pdf (2014), the pick must lose SU to qualify for a bonus play. I think that's about the only thing I got right today...

I never saw that, can you send me that .pdf. If it qualifies in one, then it also qualifies for 1-7-5. I thought it had to lose by more than 3 ATS?

[Kev the Brit]

I never saw that, can you send me that .pdf. If it qualifies in one, then it also qualifies for 1-7-5. I thought it had to lose by more than 3 ATS?

Its linked at the top of my daily posts. I know that you do not use the new rule because your back tests are based on the old rule. Hence you will see slightly different plays and results. These differences contribute to some of my difficulties.

[Wallco99]

I stand corrected. I just read the latest .pdf, and apparently Tony Chau changed the rule on the bonus plays. Teams no longer have to lose to the spread by more than 3 points ATS to qualify, but rather, just have to lose the game S/U. With this knowledge, Denver is officially a JM v1 bonus play for both Traditional and 1-7-5 methods. I would have to argue that the 3 point ATS rule is no longer a filter for 1-7-5 bonus plays since it is no longer criteria for JM traditional bonus plays, and my rules state that ALL JM v1 bonus plays in traditional system are also plays in the 1-7-5.

[Kev the Brit]

I stand corrected. I just read the latest .pdf, and apparently Tony Chau changed the rule on the bonus plays. Teams no longer have to lose to the spread by more than 3 points ATS to qualify, but rather, just have to lose the game S/U. With this knowledge, Denver is officially a JM v1 bonus play for both Traditional and 1-7-5 methods. I would have to argue that the 3 point ATS rule is no longer a filter for 1-7-5 bonus plays since it is no longer criteria for JM traditional bonus plays.

We spoke about this in 2014 and you said that the 1-7-5 system was backtested on the old rule and that we should continue with the same old criteria. Its your baby to change, but you might want to review your backtest. Your call...

[Wallco99]

We spoke about this in 2014 and you said that the 1-7-5 system was backtested on the old rule and that we should continue with the same old criteria. Its your baby to change, but you might want to review your backtest. Your call...

I don't ever remember this rule change or us discussing the differences. But if you say we did, then I will take you at your word. I guess we will still use the 3 point rule for 1-7-5 even though it seems foolish to use a rule that doesn't exist. I will ask you, what is your opinion of what we should do?

[Wallco99]

It would actually be a new item to backtest. All plays that were already part of the backtest would still yeild the same results that they did when I tested them. We are talking about a whole new crop of plays that were never actually tested, since criteria wasn't met at that time. These plays could yeild several wins or even losses. I no longer have bonus plays listed anywhere that didn't become official. So without going through 10 years of NBA schedules again, I say we just make a call as a group and decide what to do, from this point forward, with these new found bonus plays.

Personally, I am going to play them.

[Kev the Brit]

I don't ever remember this rule change or us discussing the differences. But if you say we did, then I will take you at your word. I guess we will still use the 3 point rule for 1-7-5 even though it seems foolish to use a rule that doesn't exist. I will ask you, what is your opinion of what we should do?

Well, when we spoke you said, quite reasonably, that your backtests are based on the old rule, so we should continue to run the 1-7-5 system based on the backtests. I agreed with your direction at the time and I have been posting results and plays according to the old rule, ever since. So, I think we should continue the way we are.

[Wallco99]

Well, when we spoke you said, quite reasonably, that your backtests are based on the old rule, so we should continue to run the 1-7-5 system based on the backtests. I agreed with your direction at the time and I have been posting results and plays according to the old rule, ever since. So, I think we should continue the way we are.

You got it.

[Kev the Brit]

I don't ever remember this rule change or us discussing the differences. But if you say we did, then I will take you at your word. I guess we will still use the 3 point rule for 1-7-5 even though it seems foolish to use a rule that doesn't exist. I will ask you, what is your opinion of what we should do?

check this out: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post23125115 and I have been posting like that ever since.

[Wallco99]

check this out: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...l#post23125115 and I have been posting like that ever since.

Ok, you are right. If I get time I will go over previous seasons and pick out the series that would have qualified under the new rule and check their performance. Until that is complete, I guess we will just play it as we always have. Thanks for clearing that up Kev.

[wmt2015]

Wallco/Kev,

First time poster, long time follower. I can help if needed. I have the data and advanced excel skills to build a model needed for backtesting. Just need to know the filters to apply. Feel free to email me if interested. Thanks for all you guys do for the forum. Happy holidays.

[Wallco99]

Wallco/Kev,

First time poster, long time follower. I can help if needed. I have the data and advanced excel skills to build a model needed for backtesting. Just need to know the filters to apply. Feel free to email me if interested. Thanks for all you guys do for the forum. Happy holidays.

Nevermind. I did a quick test of the past three seasons and adding those games does not seem beneficial for the 1-7-5.

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 11/30 Results & 12/1 Plays

Note 1: I strongly recommend you to read and understand the rules for the Currently Published (2014) Morrison System before you play the 1-7-5 System and ask questions.

Note 2: The Currently Published Morrison System Rules are available here (Post #132). The Morrison 1-7-5 System Rules are available here (2014/15 Season Post #97)

Note 3: With huge thanks to Wallco99, the complete Morrison System Schedule for the 2015-16 season is available here (Post #199) as a pdf for immediate download/copy/save/print to enable everyone to check my posts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

11/30 Results
(Covers.com)

Legend/Abbreviations/Definitions: won - Series won 1/7/5 unit(s). lost - Bet did not win but series continues.
lost/stopped - Series lost or stopped. Series/Bet VOID/filtered out - for reason stated. MEP - Most Efficient Player. Lost heavily ATS - lost by more than 3 points ATS; qualified for V1 series.

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
7.30pm: #29 V3 Boston: B Bet won 1 unit (ATS)
8.00pm #30 V1 Denver: A Bet lost. B Bet 12/2
9.00pm: #31 V2 Golden State: A Bet won 1 unit (ML)

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
7.30pm: #29 V3 Boston: B Bet won 7 units
8.00pm #26 V1 Denver: B Bet lost. C Bet 12/2
9.00pm: #31 V2 Golden State: A Bet lost. B Bet 12/2
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/1 Plays
(All times EST)

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
7.00pm #31 V1 LA Lakers: A Bet to win 1 unit
8.00pm #32 V1 Orlando: A Bet to win 1 unit

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
7.00pm #31 V1 LA Lakers: A Bet to win 1 unit
8.00pm #32 V1 Orlando: A Bet to win 1 unit
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Plays (12/2)

Currently Published Morrison System:
Scheduled:
8.00pm #30 V1 Denver: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake
Possible:
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake

Morrison 1-7-5 System:
Scheduled:
7.00pm #34 V1 Golden State: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake
8.00pm #26 V2 Denver: C Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A & B Bet stakes
10.30pm 28 V1 Indiana: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake
Possible:
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results to Date (11/1 - 11/30

Currently Published Morrison System total P/L so far (3 point buy* all bets recorded @ odds -185/1.54 or ML odds when appropriate): +1.86 units

Morrison 1-7-5 System total P/L so far (ATS all bets recorded @ odds -110/1.91): +18.96 units

Please refer to Post #234 for detailed stats for the Morrison season so far. Detailed stats will continue to be posted weekly on Sundays.

* Always buy 3 points with the Currently Published Morrison System, except when the selected team is -3 ATS or greater, in which case the ML is the official bet. Alternatively, the bettor may reduce the bet amount, or buy 3 points or stop the series at that point. However, the ML result will be the official system bet for the record.

[zxc]

Big day tomorrow. Let's get this!

[Wallco99]

http://www.sportsbookreview.com/forum/nba-basketball-betting/3164275-wallcos-chase-110-a.html

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 12/1 Results & 12/2 Plays

Note 1: I strongly recommend you to read and understand the rules for the Currently Published (2014) Morrison System before you play the 1-7-5 System and ask questions.

Note 2: The Currently Published Morrison System Rules are available here (Post #132). The Morrison 1-7-5 System Rules are available here (2014/15 Season Post #97)

Note 3: With huge thanks to Wallco99, the complete Morrison System Schedule for the 2015-16 season is available here (Post #199) as a pdf for immediate download/copy/save/print to enable everyone to check my posts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/1 Results
(Covers.com)

Legend/Abbreviations/Definitions: won - Series won 1/7/5 unit(s). lost - Bet did not win but series continues.
lost/stopped - Series lost or stopped. Series/Bet VOID/filtered out - for reason stated. MEP - Most Efficient Player. Lost heavily ATS - lost by more than 3 points ATS; qualified for V1 series.

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: A Bet lost. B Bet 12/2
8.00pm #33 V1 Orlando: A Bet won 1 unit (ATS)

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: A Bet lost. B Bet 12/2
8.00pm #33 V1 Orlando: A Bet won 1 unit

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/2 Plays
(All times EST)

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)

7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake . Note. Using the edit feature, this bet has been added after the game for recording and presentational reasons only. Apologies offered.
8.00pm #30 V1 Denver: B Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A Bet stake

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
7.00pm #31 V1 Golden State: B Bet to win 7 units plus lost A Bet stake
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: B Bet to win 7 units plus lost A Bet stake
7.00pm #34 V1 Golden State: A Bet to win 1 unit. However, under an amended rule (in retrospect), this game does not qualify for a V1 series - the team did not lose SU/heavily ATS all preceding road games. Series VOID
8.00pm #26 V2 Denver: C Bet to win 5 units plus lost A & B Bet stakes
10.30pm 28 V1 Indiana: B Bet to win 7 units plus lost A Bet stake
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Plays (12/3)

Currently Published Morrison System:
Scheduled:
10.00pm #35 V1 Boston: A Bet to win 1 unit
Possible:
#30 V1 Denver: C Bet to win 1 unit plus lost A & B Bet stakes

Morrison 1-7-5 System:
Scheduled:
10.00pm #35 V1 Boston: A Bet to win 1 unit
Possible:
10.00pm #28 V1 Indiana: C Bet to win 5 units plus lost A & B Bet stakes

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results to Date (11/1 - 12/1)

Currently Published Morrison System total P/L so far (3 point buy* all bets recorded @ odds -185/1.54 or ML odds when appropriate): +2.86 units

Morrison 1-7-5 System total P/L so far (ATS all bets recorded @ odds -110/1.91): +19.96 units

Please refer to Post #234 for detailed stats for the Morrison season so far. Detailed stats will continue to be posted weekly on Sundays.

* Always buy 3 points with the Currently Published Morrison System, except when the selected team is -3 ATS or greater, in which case the ML is the official bet. Alternatively, the bettor may reduce the bet amount, or buy 3 points or stop the series at that point. However, the ML result will be the official system bet for the record.

[Wallco99]

Kevin,

I don't know about that Golden State 1-7-5 bonus v1 play (#34). I am pretty sure that when JM said that a team must lose all of their in-conference road games by more than 3 to the spread, he actually meant LOSE the game as well as not cover the ATS by 3. Since this was a M/L play, and Golden State won the game, Golden State would not have qualified as a bonus play under JM old traditional rules. And if it does not qualify as a traditional JM play, then it also doesn't qualify as a 1-7-5 play. Since, as mentioned in our discussion the other day, I used the old qualifying rules in my backtest, then we must honor it in this case as well. In my backtest, if a team WON any of it's in-conference games, regardless of ATS, the series was voided. Since there are no backtest results for playing a team that WINS it's in-conference game, but LOSES it by more than 3 points ATS, we really can't include this one either as a 1-7-5 play.

Apparently, because of the newly added .pdf qualifying rule of "S/U loss only" in the in-conference games, there are going to be some trditional JM v1 bonus plays that do not qualify as bonus v1 1-7-5 plays. However, there will never be a bonus play that qualifies for 1-7-5 that didn't qualify for traditional JM.

[imotiv8]

I agree with Wallco, I personally don't have GS as a play

[Kev the Brit]

Kevin,

I don't know about that Golden State 1-7-5 bonus v1 play (#34). I am pretty sure that when JM said that a team must lose all of their in-conference road games by more than 3 to the spread, he actually meant LOSE the game as well as not cover the ATS by 3. Since this was a M/L play, and Golden State won the game, Golden State would not have qualified as a bonus play under JM old traditional rules. And if it does not qualify as a traditional JM play, then it also doesn't qualify as a 1-7-5 play. Since, as mentioned in our discussion the other day, I used the old qualifying rules in my backtest, then we must honor it in this case as well. In my backtest, if a team WON any of it's in-conference games, regardless of ATS, the series was voided. Since there are no backtest results for playing a team that WINS it's in-conference game, but LOSES it by more than 3 points ATS, we really can't include this one either as a 1-7-5 play.

Apparently, because of the newly added .pdf qualifying rule of "S/U loss only" in the in-conference games, there are going to be some trditional JM v1 bonus plays that do not qualify as bonus v1 1-7-5 plays. However, there will never be a bonus play that qualifies for 1-7-5 that didn't qualify for traditional JM.

OK. All understood. Not a problem. This was the first time that a team on the road in conference has won SU but lost by more than 3 points ATS, since I've been playing JM. As it happens, GS won last night so no harm has been done. I shall now "amend" the rule: "lose SU and by more than 3 points ATS"

It was a good night, last night. To be honest I was expecting the C Bet and at least 1 B Bet to fail. I imagine a lot of bankrolls were under pressure last night. At the end of last season I downloaded most of my profit and last night I had to upload a lot of it to make the plays. To then get the sweep and collect 26 units was excellent.

[cinaj05]

I really felt the pressure that's why pass to check games live. Just checked it after all games are completed. Nevertheless it was a good night indeed

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 12/2 Results & 12/3 Plays

Note 1: I strongly recommend you to read and understand the rules for the Currently Published (2014) Morrison System before you play the 1-7-5 System and ask questions.

Note 2: The Currently Published Morrison System Rules are available here (Post #132). The Morrison 1-7-5 System Rules are available here (2014/15 Season Post #97)

Note 3: With huge thanks to Wallco99, the complete Morrison System Schedule for the 2015-16 season is available here (Post #199) as a pdf for immediate download/copy/save/print to enable everyone to check my posts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/2 Results
(Covers.com)

Legend/Abbreviations/Definitions: won - Series won 1/7/5 unit(s). lost - Bet did not win but series continues.
lost/stopped - Series lost or stopped. Series/Bet VOID/filtered out - for reason stated. MEP - Most Efficient Player. Lost SU/ heavily ATS - lost SU and by more than 3 points ATS; qualified for V1 series.

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
8.00pm #30 V1 Denver: B Bet won 1 unit (ATS)
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: B Bet won 1 unit (ATS). This was not posted yesterday as a play due to an oversight - apologies offered

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
7.00pm #31 V1 Golden State: B Bet won 7 units
7.00pm #32 V1 LA Lakers: B Bet won 7 units
7.00pm #34 V1 Golden State: A Bet won 1 unit. However, under an amended rule this game did not qualify for a V1 series - the team did not lose SU/heavily ATS all preceding road games. Series VOID
8.00pm #26 V2 Denver: C Bet won 5 units
10.30pm 28 V1 Indiana: B Bet won 7 units
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/3 Plays
(All times EST)

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
10.00pm #35 V1 Boston: A Bet to win 1 unit - Series VOID. Did not lose SU all preceding road games
Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
10.00pm #35 V1 Boston: A Bet to win 1 unit - Series VOID. Did not lose SU & heavily ATS all preceding road games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Plays (12/4)

Currently Published Morrison System:
Scheduled:
None
Possible:
None

Morrison 1-7-5 System:
Scheduled:
None
Possible:
None
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results to Date (11/1 - 12/2)

Currently Published Morrison System total P/L so far (3 point buy* all bets recorded @ odds -185/1.54 or ML odds when appropriate): +4.86 units

Morrison 1-7-5 System total P/L so far (ATS all bets recorded @ odds -110/1.91): +45.96 units

Please refer to Post #234 for detailed stats for the Morrison season so far. Detailed stats will continue to be posted weekly on Sundays.

* Always buy 3 points with the Currently Published Morrison System, except when the selected team is -3 ATS or greater, in which case the ML is the official bet. Alternatively, the bettor may reduce the bet amount, or buy 3 points or stop the series at that point. However, the ML result will be the official system bet for the record.

[greally311]

Thanks for your work Kev. Do you happen to have a +/- breakdown of the 1-7-5 system. Like record for 1 unit games 15-13 for +1.3 units, 7 unit games are 7-3 for + 30 units (made up numbers). Thanks

[Andy3568]

Kev, I don't believe Boston is a play today. They started their road trip in conference and won their last game.

[Wallco99]

Kev, I don't believe Boston is a play today. They started their road trip in conference and won their last game.

That is correct. They won their last game by 10 points against Miami on 11/30/15.

[Wallco99]

OK. All understood. Not a problem. This was the first time that a team on the road in conference has won SU but lost by more than 3 points ATS, since I've been playing JM. As it happens, GS won last night so no harm has been done. I shall now "amend" the rule: "lose SU and by more than 3 points ATS"

It was a good night, last night. To be honest I was expecting the C Bet and at least 1 B Bet to fail. I imagine a lot of bankrolls were under pressure last night. At the end of last season I downloaded most of my profit and last night I had to upload a lot of it to make the plays. To then get the sweep and collect 26 units was excellent.

Yes, a very good night. Denver was also a (D) bet in my Chase 110, so I had 25 units on them alone. And they covered by 1/2 point. EEEEK!

[on3]

I ended up taking my 28 units of risk and spreading them over singles and parlays and ended the night up almost 60 units. Sheesh, and it was all a half point away from going horribly, horribly wrong.

[Kev the Brit]

Kev, I don't believe Boston is a play today. They started their road trip in conference and won their last game.

Yeh, thanks for that. I looked only at their first road game on 11/29 and overlooked their fixture on 11/30.
Post now edited
I need to give myself a good talking to, after all of my screw-ups lately.

[Wallco99]

Yeh, thanks for that. I looked only at their first road game on 11/29 and overlooked their fixture on 11/30.
Post now edited
I need to give myself a good talking to, after all of my screw-ups lately.

Don't fret. Get them all out in a seven day stretch then the rest of the year will be smooth sailing.

[Andy3568]

Yeh, thanks for that. I looked only at their first road game on 11/29 and overlooked their fixture on 11/30.
Post now edited
I need to give myself a good talking to, after all of my screw-ups lately.

No worries. That's one of the benefits of tracking things ourselves - catching each other's errors. Most of the time when I notice a discrepancy between what I'm looking at and what you and Wallco post, it's usually my mistake.

[Andy3568]

Yes, a very good night. Denver was also a (D) bet in my Chase 110, so I had 25 units on them alone. And they covered by 1/2 point. EEEEK!

I am so glad I didn't watch that game; I would've had a heart attack. The New York game bothered me too (I got -410 odds). The only plus was that it was a "B" play... and it won. LOL

[njb5572]

Yes, a very good night. Denver was also a (D) bet in my Chase 110, so I had 25 units on them alone. And they covered by 1/2 point. EEEEK!

Joined a little late this year making Denver for Chase 110 and JM175 one of my first chases of the year.. Denver could have squandered my season last night but.. for once.. the gambling gods decided they could wait to take my money another day!

[Kev the Brit]

Morrison 12/3 Results & 12/4 Plays

Note 1: I strongly recommend you to read and understand the rules for the Currently Published (2014) Morrison System before you play the 1-7-5 System and ask questions.

Note 2: The Currently Published Morrison System Rules are available here (Post #132). The Morrison 1-7-5 System Rules are available here (2014/15 Season Post #97)

Note 3: With huge thanks to Wallco99, the complete Morrison System Schedule for the 2015-16 season is available here (Post #199) as a pdf for immediate download/copy/save/print to enable everyone to check my posts.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/3 Results
(Covers.com)

Legend/Abbreviations/Definitions: won - Series won 1/7/5 unit(s). lost - Bet did not win but series continues.
lost/stopped - Series lost or stopped. Series/Bet VOID/filtered out - for reason stated. MEP - Most Efficient Player. Lost SU/heavily ATS - lost SU and by more than 3 points ATS; qualified for V1 series.

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
None

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
None
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

12/4 Plays
(All times EST)

Currently Published Morrison System
(3 point buy* all bets)
None

Morrison 1-7-5 System
(ATS all bets)
None
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Upcoming Plays (12/5)

Currently Published Morrison System:
Scheduled:
8.00pm #36 V2 Portland: A Bet to win 1 unit
Possible:
None

Morrison 1-7-5 System:
Scheduled:
8.00pm #36 V2 Portland: A Bet to win 1 unit
Possible:
None
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Results to Date (11/1 - 12/3)

Currently Published Morrison System total P/L so far (3 point buy* all bets recorded @ odds -185/1.54 or ML odds when appropriate): +4.86 units

Morrison 1-7-5 System total P/L so far (ATS all bets recorded @ odds -110/1.91): +45.96 units

Please refer to Post #234 for detailed stats for the Morrison season so far. Detailed stats will continue to be posted weekly on Sundays.

* Always buy 3 points with the Currently Published Morrison System, except when the selected team is -3 ATS or greater, in which case the ML is the official bet. Alternatively, the bettor may reduce the bet amount, or buy 3 points or stop the series at that point. However, the ML result will be the official system bet for the record.

[Kev the Brit]

Thanks for your work Kev. Do you happen to have a +/- breakdown of the 1-7-5 system. Like record for 1 unit games 15-13 for +1.3 units, 7 unit games are 7-3 for + 30 units (made up numbers). Thanks

Yes. Every Sunday I publish exactly what you're asking for.