Sports Leans ~ Tue 4/7

[Dexter]

nba-

the thunder have beaten the spurs 2 of 3 games this year, including a win at sa just a few days ago. the spurs are 6-1 ats this year avenging a home loss. the thunder have lost that ats magic, and seems to be a young team tiring down the stretch. theyve dropped 5 of 6 su and ats.

-spurs -6 (big 2x)

the magic will be looking to avenge an early season home loss to the rockets. orl is 6-1 ats at pk to +3.

-magic pk
________________________________________ ___________

mlb-

mark buehrle has always been a solid april pitcher the last 3 years with an era/whip of 3.30/1.12. the whitesox are also 15-3 in home games hes started vs kc. last year buehrle beat the royals in both home starts giving up a solid 3er in 14ip. meche on the flip side has been below avg in april the last 3 years with a 4.43/1.45 era/whip.

-whitesox -7

james shields does not like fenway park. tb is 0-3 in games he started at boston. last years 2 starts in boston totaled 11er in 4ip. beckett on the flip side had a solid 20ip for 6er in his 3 home starts vs tb. for his career, the redsox are 4-2 in home games he started vs tb.

-redsox -7.5

[Wilforth]

Great picks!

[Wilforth]

I'm gonna parlay all these, wager everything I have in this world and retire after I cash the bet

[Dexter]

lol - sounds like a plan

[Wilforth]

Dexter,

What do you think of Toronto (NBA)? Atlanta are mediocre on the road.

[danrman]

hey just wanna say heads up and i see your thread.. if i get an nba pick for tomorrow i'll post it here.. right now all i have are a couple of hockey picks

[pho3nix32]

line: om+1@hr
pick: hr-1

- Houston is 12-1 ATS in last 13 meetings against Orlando.
- Houston is 11-2 SU in last 13 meetings agains Orlando.

In plain english, Houston owns Orlando. Brooks is an underrated point guard. Artest and Battier are much tougher than Lewis and Hedo. Both teams are hot ATS but I'm giving Houston the edge here with their matchup history and homecourt advantage.

[cap10]

dex
with manu out for the yr and duncan ques i would have to lean okc//parker cannot win on his own;; jmo

[NBA Hero]

howard could easily get in foul trouble with multiple defenders facing him. hous is talented on the defenside part.

[cap10]

Dexter,

What do you think of Toronto (NBA)? Atlanta are mediocre on the road.

went 7-1 on sunday;; cannot believe i took min+7.5 over den to ruin an 8 tm parlay;;
i've been trying to decide this atl /tor game also;; its a true crapshoot;; atl blows on the road and tor just had the 5 game win strk snapped;; so its 50/50;;; i lean atl cause when a tm has a win streak snapped they almost always lose the following game also;; i speak from yrs of nba experience;;; not a lock tho
gl

[ragiche]

I'm with you on Sas -5.5 , plus additional plays of Mia -3.5(the hornets are in disarray right now,they can't shoot the ball well.The heat are trying to position themselves to a better standings to have home court advantage in the 1st round at least.) I'm also thinking to play the raps for a small cash that they can win su against the hawks at home.

[Jimbo42]

What up Mafia!
Strong Leans on :
Atlanta -1.5... this is a strong play against Toronto... I've been sitting back and waiting for Toronto to lose..Streak plays work best when a team breaks a losing streak.. but are also very strong when a team that has no business winning 6 in a row finally loses... They have lost their mojo... ATL all the way..
Philly +5.5...Scored only 67 pts and lost by almost 30 vs. New Jersey. Ouch! Sixers respond well to that kind of embarrassment... Last month (Mar 8) they scored 74... next game they scored 115 and won the game....Dec12 they scored 72,, next game 104 and won the game. Philly willl be focused and Charlotte ain't as hot as they used to be. Ya'll are getting line value here with Philly...

GL to everyone

[Jimbo42]

Example fellas: go to Vegasinsider and look at Charlotte... look what happened after they won six in a row (Feb25-Mar 7)... then after they won three in a row... then again after they won three a row....
Mediocre teams that play over their head crash back to earth after their winning streak is over....

[peterpan19]

ok guys finally some nba action again today ( I already have 5 mlb play today posted in cks thread, so I will try to limit myself to 3 plays max on nba here today):

Hou pk
they are 16-2 SU at home... 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS at home against Orl...12-1 ATS and 11-2 SU overall against Orl... both team are playing for something here but the Rockets pla for the Division win here...give me the Rockets at pk today...I just dont see how the Rockets will loose here today...

Phi +4.5
dont know who it was (oh Jimbo it was you)... play a team that is above .400 after they scored 75 points or less... I will do this here today, as the moral should be broken for the Char team now and they dont wont to play anymore... Phi probably celebrated a bit too much but they will come back today...

Mem +6.5
give me the hot team in this one plus a ton of points at home...


teaser:
Chi -1
Hou +7
mem +13.5

GL

[repski]

Charlotte -4

-Bobcats are 15-5 ATS in their last 20 home games
-Charlotte is 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as a favorite
-Charlotte is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a home favorite.
-The Bobcats are 6-0 ATS in their last six against the Atlantic Division.
-Charlotte has covered seven of the last eight with the Sixers @ home
-Larry Brown

[repski]

UCONN -14 (3PT BUY)

Uconn played Louisville twice this year....winning by 28 and 39pts respectively....

UCONN -10 (1st half)

[cocknocker]

Alright for today so far I like the Rockets to get the job done against the Magic, and the Heat to outlast the Hornets. The Hornets have not been playing too well on the road lately, and the Heat are pretty good at home albeit they mirror one another as one-man teams. I will take the short home chalk in this one playing with triple revenge. The Heat are 9-1 straight up against the Hornets at home despite the Hornets 6 straight covers with one push. The problem has always been that the Heat have been favored by 9 points on average at home in the last 4 home games that they have been a favorite. I will take my chances with the dynamic MVP candidate.


Rockets (PK)
Heat-3.5 (buying a hook to get under the key number)
Lakers-10 (buying a point and a half)

[Bookie-Rookie]

Hey guys, how reliable is the Greek? They finally put NBA futures back up and I want to make a $500 wager on the lakers this year! Thing is, netteller and all other options are not letting US deposits go through! My option is western union (yikes) and an all access credit card!

I'm just kinds uneasy about depositing money over the phone rather than an onlyne transaction.

Mafia, please help...I'd like to place that wager...it's at +205 and I'd take it, lakers will win it all!

Thanks mafia.

[Bookie-Rookie]

Excuse my typo's ...stupid phone...LOL

[repski]

off topic

Burress: 'I know the sheriff personally'
"Burress, who the police report said was driving like "he was going to kill somebody," was issued a $150 speeding citation, his fifth traffic ticket in Florida in the past month, the report said. "

5 tickets in one month!! are ya kiddin me?? How many do you need to lose your license??

[vassman86]

Been considering taking Charlotte first quarter, and possibly first half as well.
This is Charlotte's last home game, and I expect them to give their fans something to appreciate. Also, Charlotte's been playing some good first quarter basketball recently (too lazy to dig up the numbers).

As for Charlotte first half, in the past five meetings with Philly, they've led after the first half four times, and tied once.

[sweetjones55]

Whats up SBR, new member here first post. What do you guys think about the team total for the Heat tonight 97.5? I know the Heat have been scoring a substantial amount at home lately and the Hornets have not been doing too well defensively on the road.

[B's Picks]

Ck i love your posts, picks, knowledge and insight. I tail you often and use your words to consistently build my bankroll. i love the Heat and love when i get to put down cash on a line of -4 or less. but im unsure of the rockets/magic game. what is your reason for picking the rockets and are you crumbs or HEAVY? Also, i have HOU +1 now, would you be on this?

[BrandonLaz]

Orlando Magic (pk) vs Houston Rockets

The Magic are beating everybody and doing it at home and on the road right now. Orlando goes to Houston tonight and grabs this victory with ease in my mind. The Magic have won eight of nine overall, covered the number in four of the last five and they've won four straight on the road even going 3-1 ATS in those games. This is a revenge spot for the Magic as well considering back in November, the Rockets went into Orlando and got a 100-95 victory as two-point underdogs. To bad that just plays into the typical trend for this series and another reason the Magic win as the road team has won six of seven and eight of the last 10 meetings both SU and ATS in this series. Orlando is on ATS tears of 38-18 overall, 59-28-3 on the road and 23-9-2 when playing on two days of rest. There is no reason not to go on the Magic today as they should dominate this game from start to finish.

Orlando Magic pk (HEAVY)

Chicago Blackhawks (+110) vs Nashville Predators

The Blackhawks clinched their first postseason berth since 2002 by beating Nashville 3-1 on Friday. They're fourth in the conference and looking to extend their win streak to four after Sunday's 1-0 victory at Columbus, which snapped a season-high five-game road losing streak. Chicago is in a great spot to play spoiler today as the play the Predators. Heading into their final three games of the regular season, the Nashville Predators are in the thick of the Western Conference playoff race. Anyone who has watched hockey over the past years knows how much Chicago loves to shatter peoples playoff dreams. Take the Blackhawks here as they are just playing to well right now for the Predators to stay in this game with a chance.

Chicago Blackhawks +110 (Medium)

Carjacked CK's Milwaukee play for a small play and I jacked both of Dex's baseball plays for medium plays today as well.

[cocknocker]

All crumbs bets todays for me today guys. It's the time of year to even up the units and make them smaller. There will be a lot of things to wager on every day that will add up to a big number starting in May. I'm fine tuning my discipline

[RoagBettor]

The "Revenge Factor" to me is negligible. Houston has won 11 out of 13 SU against Orlando. Did Orlando not want revenge for those other 10 losses?

There are too many other factors that come into play - matchups, scheduling, injuries, etc.

[img]

Houston easily for me, dwight always had problems against yao. on both end of the court. he's big and stronger then most centers but not yao. He is quicker but yao would easily play him a few step back and challenge him to shot it. Only way orlando pull this out is if they shoot lights out from the threes, houston tends to try to funnel everything inside to yao and let the weakside shooter open. To beat them you gotta hit the threes, and even still houston defensive rotation is no slouch.

[wangichu]

Houston will show the magic why they're just fine without raefer. They play the magic tough and yao is probably the only non-shaq in the game who can body up on dwight. If dwight's game is slowed down it will greatly hamper the magic's chance to hang. Public money isn't too skewed, but once again the public is on the wrong side here.

HOU ML

toronto lost the back end of a home to home tilt, but otherwise, have been on fire of late. Hawks struggle mightly on the road and toronto will even the season series here. Public is hard on the hawks, yet minimal line movement.

TOR ML

and that heat line does look a little fishy with cp3 being given that many points against a barely +.500 east squad. I think i'll tail you there too CK.

MIA -3.5

[ManBearPig]

I'm surprised there's not more talk of the UCONN women's game. They should be the easiest money of the day as they will probably run the ville out of the arena...they win this by at least 25.

[The_Kid]

UCONN -14 (3PT BUY)

UCONN -10 (1st half)

On UCONN for the game but couldn't pull the trigger on the first half due to UCONN starting slow in the beginning of games. They usually turn it up in the 2H but they should literally run Louisville out of the building though. I'll probably be waiting for a nice 2H line if anything. GL today, repski.

[TheLemonDropKid]

I'm surprised there's not more talk of the UCONN women's game. They should be the easiest money of the day as they will probably run the ville out of the arena...they win this by at least 25.

I totally agree with you......I'm also surprised nobody is on Portland for tonight.

[Tennispro]

Houston -1 for today and Blazers -6,5 small.

[The_Kid]

I won't clog up the thread with a posting with a bunch of smiley faces but man, that's one GREAT picture, Tennispro.

Here is one prop bet I'll be playing tonight.

Dwyane Wade -7.5 Points vs David West

I absolutely love this one. Wade has the ball in his hands > 75% of the time and lots of shots equals lots of points. With the Heat at home, I expect the officials to give him some love when he drives to the basket. I could easily see him getting to the line at least 15 times today. In the last meeting, he dropped 30 points. David West totaled 21. West has also been dealing with an ankle injury and I don't think he's 100%. He has been logging heavy minutes lately because the Hornets are depleted due to injuries. Because the Hornets are injured, West has been taking a lot more shots than normal but the team as a whole struggles on the road and that leads me to believe that he'll come back down to his normal average of around 20 points. Wade is the leading scorer in the NBA, averaging almost 30 points and I expect him to at least total that number.

This is all I have for today so far. Might be looking at San Antonio 1Q -1.5 and San Antonio -5.5. Even without Ginobili, the Spurs have players who can replace his production. Mason is more than capable of scoring 15-20 points tonight. Plus, as Dexter pointed out on the first post, the Spurs should have revenge on their minds after the Thunder beat them last time out. Spurs also need to win this game to keep pace with the other teams in the West. One loss could drop them a couple spots in the standings and they know it.

[Pajda]

Booked Miami ML looks like NO is running out of gas

I'm thinking about teasing it with UCONN game

BOL

[Charger42]

SPURS will take care of Thunder, Pop is the best at working with a skeleton crew. The Spurs have been winning most of the season without Ginobili. As for Houston vs Orlando, Howard always puts crazy numbers up against Yao. Yao gets in foul trouble more than Howard, so we will see some Mutombo sightings again