NBA 1st Half Strategy

[ledjend]

3-0 last night...47-20 overall...here's tonight:

Orl/Tor.....UNDER 101.5
Sac/Dal.....UNDER 102.5
Cha/Por.....OVER 98.5
SA/GS.....OVER 97.5

Good Luck.

[xpo310]

Catching fire!

[KegKosmo]

Risk same amount on all plays?

[Nateboogy]

Question. I tried to do the math before you posted the plays and there is just one I don't understand and that is Charlotte game. Last time they played in Portland the second half had 119 points, which is over the 99 for the first half tonight. Why didn't you choose under? Or should I be looking at the first half points from previous game?

[gregmav1]

Question. I tried to do the math before you posted the plays and there is just one I don't understand and that is Charlotte game. Last time they played in Portland the second half had 119 points, which is over the 99 for the first half tonight. Why didn't you choose under? Or should I be looking at the first half points from previous game?

he plays the opposite of whatever the 2nd half was. so if it was over last half, he plays the under. that's why i said it makes no sense but it seems to be working quite well. ive been trying to figure out why this would work and cant really think of much. like all systems im sure it will start regressing to the mean eventually but right now its working very well for him

[Nateboogy]

I get that but he bet over in the Portland game whenever the second half points from last time were over the line as of now. I thought he would have gone under.

[SpreadSniper]

that guy in your avatar is one of the scariest movie creatures ever... fukker gave me nightmares when I was a kid.

good work so far!

I would have to agree that this type of "system" is destined to regress to the mean, but as you mentioned "it's working now, and now is all that matters"

BOL

[Covy]

Very random system, yet it seems to work.

If it works, it works.

[SpreadSniper]

it would be interesting to back-check this for past seasons to see how the results pan out.

[KegKosmo]

I'm rolling with it until I see consecutive losing nights

[ledjend]

Hold off on the Portland game for now...running a backtest for major point disparities.

[Nateboogy]

Does this have to deal with Portland making 21 3's?

[xpo310]

hope you go 4-0 cuz i put it in a parlay ha

[Nateboogy]

Hold off on the Portland game for now...running a backtest for major point disparities.

Any word on Portland game? Wondering if I should hedge.

[ledjend]

Corrected card and final...Portland is an UNDER play...apologies for the confusion:

Orl/Tor.....UNDER 101.5
Sac/Dal.....UNDER 102.5
Cha/Por.....UNDER 98.5
SA/GS.....OVER 97.5

Good Luck.

[KegKosmo]

Looking like 0-2 to start.

[ledjend]

0-4 last night...47-24 overall...another losing night tonight and it's time to sell the stock...all games are listed except Hou/Min which I'll have to wait on for line movement:

Det/Was.....UNDER 95
Utah/Atl.....UNDER 99.5
Orl/NY.....OVER 97.5
Por/Den.....OVER 105
Brk/Pho.....OVER 102.5


Good Luck.

[blackHIPPY]

that sbr mush is strong
tailing again lets make it all back

[SpreadSniper]

If I had to, my picks would match what's up for today.... now to find out whether that's a good or bad thing.

[ledjend]

Hou/Min.....OVER 102.5

[SpreadSniper]

Hou/Min.....OVER 102.5

doesn't the "system" rely on a given venue? Given this game is being played in Mexico.....?

[ledjend]

If I was backtesting this it would show up as a home game for Minny...therefore I'm playing the over.

[SpreadSniper]

If I was backtesting this it would show up as a home game for Minny...therefore I'm playing the over.

what I'm saying is this game shouldn't be played under the "system" as the venue is neutral..... I would think there would be more Houston fans as opposed to Minnesota fans as well..... just saying.

BOL

[cmatth1326]

I'm thinking regression to the mean.

[blackHIPPY]

Not lookin so good

[KegKosmo]

Ugh why did I start following this guessing system..

[KegKosmo]

Do we even believe his posted record.. his thread started november 6th, he had 19-9 and some other winning record before 11/6.. fake record?

[Trep]

You can easily backdate to check, but it's probably true

[dfxdark]

Since he's posting here he's 24-18 I think
I think ledjeng, you should just make a record since you're posting here

[KegKosmo]

What are the plays today

[swavings]

Det/Was.....UNDER 95 - L
Utah/Atl.....UNDER 99.5 -L
Orl/NY.....OVER 97.5 - W
Por/Den.....OVER 105 - W
Brk/Pho.....OVER 102.5 - W
Hou/Min.....OVER 102.5 - L by the hook (102)

So much hate when there is a one day of losing. Crazy to think that if someone jumps on his picks and happens to lose that night, his picks suck... Regardless of the system, if you have played all of his picks since he has posted, you are +money.. is there anything more that you can ask for? You have a choice to not play or play, but dont fault a person for trying to come up with their own system, when you cant even create a system or know where to start a system.

[KegKosmo]

I'm giving him a week of tailing its only fair that way

[KegKosmo]

Yo you aren't giving up already are you?? Don't get discouraged over 2 loses

[swavings]

Whatcha got for late game?

[swavings]

So last night, I tried this method on the last NBA game of the evening, nets- warriors Looked up the data which is pretty easy to look for and suggested to take the over 105 1st half.

Hit that with flying colors...