Leans for Saturday 3/14/09

danrman · 03-14-09, 02:29 AM

i'd like to apologize to the board for my lame lead on the suns thursday night.. i know we arent supposed to do this but i dont post much and when i post i want it to be worth something... unless i have a really really good pick i dont think its worth wasting peoples time.. i did have a west virginia pick that i mentioned that won but 1-1 is not winning... i know most of you dont follow this motto but this is my style.. quality over quantity... sometimes i think theres just too many picks on this board but to each his own... happy betting people

gameday10 · 03-14-09, 02:38 AM

Yea, I like the over just was not sure what to do with it. With capping the game and using averages this game clearly goes over 120. I think the only reason for this line is their 2 previous games only going 100 and 99. Tulsa has played well lately. This is the lowest total for Memphis all year and second lowest total for Tulsa all year. After averaging both teams last 5 away games, last 5 games, conference games, conf games away, season, and season away games this game comes out to well over 120(128). But Memphis has held their opponent to under 50 points 4 of their last 5 games, allows 55 ppg in conference and has allowed 54 ppg last 5 away games. And since their 37 points outting against Memphis they are 7-1 SU and avgeraging 72ppg. This line is confusing as I don't know whether to take the over, only because I believe they made this line low because of the previous meetings or they know something and clearly this line is low compared to what others will think after capping it and be caught in the trap by taking the over.

SportsTerminator · 03-14-09, 03:05 AM

Utah, Nuggets, Bulls...
I like I like

King_Bookie · 03-14-09, 03:22 AM

Clippers again... I learned my lesson never to bet against AND for them. Damn crappy teams.

Now Miami and Charlotte is more like it. I'll post my biased analysis later after I've read their respective infos.

CHA @ MIN -> CHA -4.5 (HUGE ASS PLAY)

Charlotte is in a tough contest against other hot teams for the coveted 8th spot in the playoffs. They had a tiring but closely fought match with Houston and I don't think that memory will be erased in one night, so expect Okafor and the boys to go out with guns blazing against Minnesota. Charlotte has dominated the last 4 meetings, winning by an average of about 7 points. Minnesota has gone on 2-7 ATS in the last 9 games and is 1-10 SU on the last 11. Charlotte on the other hand has a 6-2 SU in the last 8, losing only to the formidable home court of San Antonio and the red hot(since T-mac disappeared) Houston Rockets. Smart money goes to Charlotte here, and I'm betting bigtime. It doesnt help either that Randy Foye is highly doubtful and Al Jefferson - Two top scorers - are not around. NY opened a can of whoop ass on them today and expect it to continue tomorrow.

UTA @ MIA -> PASS UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE

Dwayne Wayde is doubtful for this game. Whether he plays or not will be the determining factor if I choose Utah or Miami. If he plays, I'll lean on Miami. If not, I\ll put all my money to Utah.

SA @ HOU -> HOU-2.5

The home team has won the last 6 meetings and this is a matchup between to teams that are monsters at home. San Antiono has 2 players missing (Manu come back dammit) and 1 doubtful for tomorrow.

Dexter · 03-14-09, 05:53 AM

3/14 - sat

the heat simply have the jazz's number. miami has won the last 5 home games su vs utah, and also beat them in utah this year. 8 in a row ats for mia in the series. 1pm eastern game on sat should favor the home team, as utah's body clocks will still be in the AM.

-heat
___________________
i will continue to ride the suns over during this favorable stretch of games until a game stays under. i could see a trend continuing with the matchups they have here in march. this will be my 3rd straight large play on the over since the 3/10 home game vs the mavs.

-over suns (big)
____________________
the rockets are on a btb off a hard fought win in charl, vs a rested spurs team off a su loss.

-spurs
____________________
Sunday 3/15-

the hawks have been impressive at home covering the last 6 games, while the blazers are 12-18 ats on the road. port has actually won the last 5 games su in atl - forget all that - the schedule makers have graced the blazers with a 1pm eastern game on sunday (10am to them) - this is one my favorite angles in sports. playing the east coast team in an early afternoon game whatever the sport is. throw in some revenge for the hawks after losing by 10 on 2/20 at port, and you have a very solid sunday play here.

-hawks (big)

Dexter · 03-14-09, 06:27 AM

i have a lot of small leans for sunday, that im going to narrow down to another play or 2 after seeing todays results.

leans: celtics, sixers, mavs, magic, warriors, over suns (big lean pending todays over suns)

peterpan19 · 03-14-09, 07:21 AM

char -4
char is 10-4 on b2b games this year, the last two games they only scored 86 points but that was against one of the better D in the league, they also need a win here to keep their playoff hopes alive, for Min on the other hand the season is over and thei are playing for nothing anymore... plus char pretty much dominated Min as of late winning all 4 games

chi pk
both team are b2b, this will be NO 4 road game and Chi first home game after a short 3 game roadie, where they underperformed, but that was to be expected as they are not a good road team, but now they come home after 3 consecutive losses eager to get a win here today, as they know they have to win pretty much their home games to have a chance to make the playoffs... plus they are 5-0 ATS and SU in their last 5 home games ... plus they already beat NO in their house pretty easy so they know what to expect and wont let us down today

Den/Lac Over 205
I normally dont like to play totals but this one is a nice one... I dont have much stats for it, but hey Denver plays not great D as of late, so the clips should score at least 100 points in this one ... and as for Denver they will probably blow the Clips away and score something around 110 or even more ... more like a gut feeling here
but not quiet sure, might replace it with the Pho/OKC, will see...

mia pk, if Wade is a go... i know the bos hex is on, but Mia just plays great home bb as of late going 6-1 SU ... plus they just have Utahs number as they are 9-1 SU them regardless of where they play...

as of now:
char -4 (ck whats styles taking here ?)
mia pk
chi pk
and probably 1 over....

also waiting to see what solobass has for us today, his math toy was pretty good yesterday... maybe he can explain it a little bit more one day ...

big play on sunday:
Pistons' owner Bill Davidson passed away at home on Friday night. He was 86 years old.
I think it says everything

King_Bookie · 03-14-09, 07:31 AM

I will sound noobish but what the hell is the boston hex? does this mean that every team who beats boston got clobbered the next game?

I like the Chi pick also, NO has been on the road for sometime and that has to put some strain to the team.

showtime2000 · 03-14-09, 07:34 AM

Good morinig all, early NHL leans for this afternoon's games,

NY Islanders/Boston over
NY Rangers +138
Ottawa/Pitts over

Be back later to confirm...

For tonight going to ride Dallas Stars again just like thursday night playing a tired Carolina team and Minnesota plays in Dallas who does not play well there and also playing alot of games.

peterpan19 · 03-14-09, 07:45 AM

ok cbb early plays that I like:

memphis -14 (Tulsa was embarassed on the road the last time the two met, this time will be no difference as memphis plays at home and they showed yesterday that they wont let down on anyone as they destroyed Hou) I am also thinking about playing Mem -7.5 1H as they will start to punish them right away, I expect no mercy today

anyone know something about Binghamton ?

other early games are just too close to call ... might make a teaser with LSU, NC, Michigan State...

peterpan19 · 03-14-09, 07:47 AM

Originally posted by King_Bookie

I will sound noobish but what the hell is the boston hex? does this mean that every team who beats boston got clobbered the next game?

yes thats what it means, i dont know the exact record, but most teams play really bad after they won against Bos... but I still like Mia today

GL everyone today

solobass · 03-14-09, 07:49 AM

so far my booked nba math toy plays of the day are

Jazz PK
Rockets -2
i need the bobs to go up to 5 for a play there and the nugs to come down to 13....the other games i am waiting for lines to come out on my book.......best of luck today everyone!

peterpan19 · 03-14-09, 07:54 AM

Originally posted by solobass

so far my booked nba math toy plays of the day are

Jazz PK
Rockets -2
i need the bobs to go up to 5 for a play there and the nugs to come down to 13....the other games i am waiting for lines to come out on my book.......best of luck today everyone!

GL solobass

even if I have to disagree with you on the Utah pick, but hey can the system really go 8-0 ? if so you did a hell of a job, maybe you should parlay all the games today ... and your also on Minn today... mhhh....

GL again

sqvirrel · 03-14-09, 08:37 AM

I'd be careful betting too many overs in cbb. Most teams are on their third game in three nights. The oddsmakers are going to have a hard time depressing the lines any more than they did yesterday without the overs getting pounded by squares. Across the board college totals will probably still be a bit higher than they should be and there will be fat opportunities on the under again.

Vincepcion · 03-14-09, 08:58 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

big play on sunday:
Pistons' owner Bill Davidson passed away at home on Friday night. He was 86 years old.
I think it says everything

They're facing Memphis so the spread is going to be pretty big anyway. Might not be such a good play.

Vincepcion · 03-14-09, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

chi pk
plus they already beat NO in their house pretty easy so they know what to expect and wont let us down today

Not sure if you are aware, but Chris Paul didn't play that game. That makes all the difference. It's a no play for me but if you're on it then GL pullin for ya.

Casi · 03-14-09, 09:20 AM

Miami Pk...i think this line is low because of the way Utah was playing lately, but Miami should be favored here at home. Just my opinion.

repski · 03-14-09, 09:48 AM

Bulls +1(booked ML)

-Both teams are the backend of a btb.
-N.O. has not done well in this situation going 2-7 ATS in their last 9 un-rested on the road.
-The Bulls have been solid at home since the AS break going 5-0 ATS @ home including SU wins over Denver and Orlando.
-The Bulls have also been 9-0-1 ATS versus teams from the Western Conference this season.

repski · 03-14-09, 10:02 AM

FSU +8.5 (I may put a little on the ML @ +330)

lots of ATS trends in FSU favor
-FSU is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 neutral site games.
-FSU is 14-4-1 ATS in their last 19 games as a dawg.
-FSU is 21-8-2 ATS in their last 31 games overall.

NC hasn't been cashing a lot of checks.....
-N.C. is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite and overall.
-UNC 11-18 ATS overall for the season

SportsTerminator · 03-14-09, 10:19 AM

Someone mentioned the Bulls beat New Orleans IN New Orleans. BUT Chris Paul didn't play that game HUGE difference. I still like Chicago but only because their home.

repski · 03-14-09, 10:20 AM

Durant probable tonight...(I wondered why the o/u was 235)

Durant, who has been sidelined since rolling his ankle on Feb. 27, could rejoin the Thunder tonight at Phoenix. The team has upgraded Durant to probable, indicating he likely will be a go against the Suns. When the Thunder upgraded forward Jeff Green to probable before playing at Sacramento on Tuesday, Green returned to the lineup.

suckatmyjob · 03-14-09, 10:24 AM

seems like public all over Miami Heat. Didnt line open at pick and now moving towards Miami -1

The_Kid · 03-14-09, 10:24 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

ok cbb early plays that I like:

memphis -14 (Tulsa was embarassed on the road the last time the two met, this time will be no difference as memphis plays at home and they showed yesterday that they wont let down on anyone as they destroyed Hou) I am also thinking about playing Mem -7.5 1H as they will start to punish them right away, I expect no mercy today

peter, I'm with you here. I'm taking Memphis 1H and for the game.

repski · 03-14-09, 10:24 AM

Ck,

your brilliant with this stuff...can you explain to me what would make to teams getting +4.5....have different ML's like +145...+165
see Miss St is +4.5..ML +145 and Duquense is +4.5 ML+165....TIA

SportsTerminator · 03-14-09, 10:25 AM

Suns beat Thunder last time they played by like 30. Durant and Jeff Green BOTH PLAYED that game. Expect a blowout tonight by the Suns.

suckatmyjob · 03-14-09, 10:29 AM

following Ck's recommendations playing crumbs on these college games and then bigger on NBA

best of luck today everyone

i guess news is out or so the line for Utah from pick just became Utah -2

placed:

Memphis 1H -8
Memphis/Tulsa over 56 1H
Over 121.5 whole game Memphis/Tulsa
Memphis -14.5 whole game

crumbs not even worth mentioning

solobass · 03-14-09, 10:32 AM

Originally posted by peterpan19

GL solobass

even if I have to disagree with you on the Utah pick, but hey can the system really go 8-0 ? if so you did a hell of a job, maybe you should parlay all the games today ... and your also on Minn today... mhhh....

GL again

best of luck to you too man! do you know how much i have kicked myself for not parlaying all 6 yesterday......

also, yes the line moved so i just booked

T-Wolves +5

CP Thrizzle · 03-14-09, 10:34 AM

Going with CK on the Memphis/Tulsa OVER... got it at 119, now up to 122!

solobass · 03-14-09, 10:36 AM

also we finally have a line on the suns.....i have been working on the golf swing this morning but i will cap this one and be back soon if there is a play for me. also, do not take michigan st -8.5 i expect a spartan win but probably closer than the spread.

solobass · 03-14-09, 10:41 AM

oh man, line moved a whole point.........just booked

Nuggets -12.5

repski · 03-14-09, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by SportsTerminator

Suns beat Thunder last time they played by like 30. Durant and Jeff Green BOTH PLAYED that game. Expect a blowout tonight by the Suns.

BOL to you...

just a few stat nuggets to chew on...
-OKC is 9-3 ATS @ PHX.
-Phoenix is playing no defense with 15 straight games allowing 100 or more points
-PHX in 10 of last 12 games they have given up 111+ points.

solobass · 03-14-09, 10:45 AM

just parlayed utah ml rockets ml nuggets -12.5 twolves +5

hockeytown71 · 03-14-09, 10:55 AM

Early Pucks:

***Det/Blues Over 5.5 -115 (pounding it)***

real small plays on
Phi ml -155
Boston -1.5 -125
Pitt/Ott Over 5.5 -120

RoagBettor · 03-14-09, 11:01 AM

I took the under for Memphis/Tulsa, it had jumped to 122.