sprasad03's System Picks

[sprasad03]

Update: 3 systems have been deleted and only 2 remain the SU and D Method. Both are working great. Scroll to the last pages to see results.

SU will have more plays than D for the most part. And alot of times the plays will be similar.

For all those who were following the system: Scratch everything i told u except for the following.

You buy 3 points for every game listed. That is the only thing you have to worry about.

What each system does: Basically i try to beat Vegas, it took a long time but say there is 12 games, I will prob have around 6-7 games that have the same predicted spread as Vegas. If the difference i get (predicted spread) should be higher than vegas spread, I take a range of -3.5 from it. The vegas spread has to fall in between the range for it to be a play for D system. To get an edge, you buy 3 points.

SU method the predicted spread has to be greater than vegas's spread to be a play.

Both methods take in account, injuries, b2b, records, momentum, offensive and defensive stats, and power rankings, and home court

[kroyrunner89]

how many games do you have under your SU system and what is the record?

[sprasad03]

The record is 80-31 for the SU system (personally recorded, not put on SBR), you need to understand almost every game is a play so that tallies up results quickly but the thing about it is. Alot of the time the team is like -1000 or -500, so its like not worth betting on them to win straight up.. too much risk for little reward. I was fine tunning my ATS system while that was doing that.

[csimmalavong]

agreed with all the picks, except pistons due to the situation (revitalized team)

gl man.

[sprasad03]

For Miami\Chicago game: Chicago is the play but buy 3 points.

[sprasad03]

agreed with all the picks, except pistons due to the situation (revitalized team)

gl man.

they are revitalized, but after almost blowing their lead to Boston, they will be focused for Detroit. I know it but it dont matter what i know i just follow the system :-P

[G's pks]

if the system is 80-31 like you claim straight up....sounds like you could hit a few parlays too... Once this systm proves it's worth. But in the mean time fire away...

[sprasad03]

if the system is 80-31 like you claim straight up....sounds like you could hit a few parlays too... Once this systm proves it's worth. But in the mean time fire away...

well thats y i abandoned it, thats what i thought too, do parlays and win, but i thought i had safe picks they would lose. basically i parlayed them wrong and i was like the payout is still low because most are high fav, so i wouldnt recover my losses. Basically bad picking and choosing for me but i wanted an ATS system because i usually parlay my picks. 2 teams. ex. 5 to win 13, so i can lose 2 parlays and still be up.

i aint here to post records or be the best system, just tryin to win some $$

[sprasad03]

system went 2-4, a bad day :-(

[sprasad03]

yesterday was the only 2nd time it finished below .500 since i have been recording personally. Its ok, I have 2 methods I will be tailin, Method 1 will be the original i will be posting and Method 2 will be a new thing im tryin out.

3/10/09
Method 1

Utah: -3.5 or under
SA: -6
SAC: -3.5 or under
Mil: -3.5 or under
Dal- +6
Cle: -11.5

SBR Record:2-4


Method 2 Buying System

Indiana:+6.5 [B3]
SA:-6
SAC:-3.5
NY:+6.5 [B3]
DAL: +9 [B3]
CLE: -9.5 [B2]

SBR Record: 0-0

[sprasad03]

Picks coming out soon, system did a little better yesterday, but I have to say it does its best when there is a lot of games one day!

3/11/09
Method 1

Utah:+1.5 or ML
Orl:-6 [B2]
Tor:+6.5
Wash:+9
NY:+6.5
Bos:+3.5 or ML
Minn:+2.5 or ML
LAL:+3.5 or ML
OKC:+14
Dal:+8
GS:-2.5 (3.5 highest spread b4 no play)

Record:5-7

Method 2: Buying System

ATL:+1.5 [B3]
Orl:-6 [B2]
Tor:+9.5 [B3]
Wash:+12 [B3]
NY:+9.5 [B3]
Bos:+5.5 [B2]
Minn:+4.5 [B2]
Hou:-.5 [B3]
OKC:+16 [B2]
Dal:+10 [B2]
NJ:+5.5 [B3]


Record: 3-3

Method 3: another new method, it will be the results of SU from method 1 system not the difference winner which what i use to pick the winner. So whoever it says to win SU, i will B3 for them and see if it works.

Utah: +4.5
Orl: -5
Phi:-3.5
NO: -6
Det: -3.5
Bos: 5.5
Min: 4.5
LAL: 6.5
OKC: 17
Port: -5
GS: .5

Record: 0-0

[sprasad03]

Records:

M1: 12-11

M2: 12-5

M3: 7-4

9-2 M2 today.

Method 2 did quite well today

Im prob gonna tail M1 M3 for 2-3 more days because i should get like 20 games in and get a picture of how its doin. M2 keeps doin this well, make it the official system

[sprasad03]

3/12/09

Method 1:

LAL: -2.5
Cle: -5

Record: 12-11

Method 2

Cle: -3 [B2]

Spurs: ML [B3] or pick ML right now they are -3

Record: 12-5

Method 3

LAL: +6 [B3]

Cle: -2 [B3]

Record: 7-4

[sprasad03]

M1: 14-11

m2: 13-6

m3: 9-4

[sprasad03]

3/13/09

Method 1

Phi: -3.5
Wash: +8.5
Tor: ML
Hou: -1
Ind: +5.5
Bos:-9.5 [B2]
NY:-3.5
NO:-3.5
Port:-6.5
Cle:-8 [B2]
GS:ML

Record: 14-11

Method 2 Buy 3, Buy 2 (anything under 2, i personally take ML)

Chic: +6.5
Orl: -6
Det: ML or +2
Hou: -1 or ML
ATL: -3.5
Bos: -9.5
Min: +7.5
Mil: +7.5
Port: -4.5
Cle: -8
Dal: ML

Record:13-6

Method 3 Buy 3 for all SU winners

Phi: -.5
Orl: -5
Tor:+4
Hou: ML
Atl: -.5
Bos:-8.5
NY:-.5
NO:-.5
Port:-3.5
Cle:-7
GS:+4

Record: 9-4

[sprasad03]

Updated Records:

M1: 20 -16

M2: 20-10

M3: 18-5-1


pretty close to scrapping M1, but will determine by Sunday.

[sprasad03]

3/14/2009

Method 1

Utah:-2
Minn:+5
NO:-2
Hous:-2.5
Den:-10.5 [B2]
Phx:-6 [B2]

Record: 20-16

Method 2

Utah: ML
Minn: +7
Chic:+5
SAS:+5.5
Den:-9.5 [B3] <--wary on denver
Phx: -6

Method 3

Utah-ML
Minn: +7
NO: ML
Hou: ML
Den: -9.5
Phx: -5

a lot of the picks all the system agrees this could be a good thing!

[TORONTOBBALL]

good job keep up the good work i also put some of them in a teaser get a better spread

[sprasad03]

M1: 23-19

M2: 25-11

M3: 21-8-1

After Sunday: Most likely gonna scrap Method 1 unless it somehow turns tomorrow

[sprasad03]

3/15/09

Method 1

Tor: -2
Port: +4
Det: -6.5 [b2]
Bos: -6.5
Mia: +7
LAL: -8.5
Cle: -10
Utah: +6.5
Wash: -2
GS:-3
NJ:-2.5

Record: 23-19

Method 2

Ind: +5
Atl: -1
Det: -6.5
Bos: -4.5
Mia: +10
LAL: -6.5
Cle: -8
Utah: +9.5
Sac: +5
GS: -1
LAC: +5.5

Record: 25-11

Method 3

Tor:ML
Port: +7
Det: -5.5
Bos: -3.5
Phi: -4
LAL: -5.5
Cle: -7
Orl: -3.5
Wash: ML
GS: ML
NJ: ML

Record:21-8-1

[sprasad03]

Method 1 Dropped,

2 games left:

M2: 29-16

M3: 26-12-1

[TORONTOBBALL]

what are the picks todayy

[sprasad03]

3/16/09

Buying Method

Toronto: +10
Hou: +7
SA: -4
Port: -4.5
NJ: +16

Record:30-17

SU Method

Char:-4
NO:-1
SA:-3
Port:-3.5
Den:-10

Record:26-14-1

[sprasad03]

B Method: 32-20

SU Method: 29-16-1

[TORONTOBBALL]

gj keep up the posting tomorrow

[sprasad03]

im trying to figure out a way to combine those 2 methods cuz then it would be def it be $$$

[TORONTOBBALL]

u got any picks today

[sprasad03]

3/17/09

B Method

Sac: +15
BS: -1.5 or ML
Cle: -4
Dallas: -3.5
Minn: +14
Utah: -11
GS: ML or -.5
LA: -7

SU Method

ATL: -9
CLE: -5
bos: ML
Dal: -2.5
SAS: -8
Utah: -11
GS: ML
LAL: -6

B Method: 32-20

SU Method: 29-16-1

[sprasad03]

Update: B Method: 35-24-1

SU Method: 33-19-2

[MadStu]

Nice work!

[sprasad03]

Buying Method dropped, Going to stick with SU method and a new one, picks within the hour

[sprasad03]

3/18/09

SU Method

Bos: -1
Port: ML
Char: -9.5
NY: -4
NO: -10
ORl: -2.5
OKC: ML
Den: -4
Hou: -6
Phx: -4

D Method
this method I think might end up being the best, my system determines the spread for each game. I have decided to take -3.5 from the favorite everytime to increase the strength of its value of the spread. If it falls between the predicted and the minus -3.5 range. (lower limit). Its a play. Plays are a lot fewer. BUt i have been tracking this off the book and its hasnt lost yet.

Den: -4
Hou: -6
Phx: -4

[TORONTOBBALL]

gj lets cash tonite

[sprasad03]

SU: 38-24

D:
Spread: 1-2
ML: 3-0

added ml to track

[sprasad03]

I added a filter to the SU method, so there will be less plays but hopefully more wins.

SU Method

Dallas- +8


D

no plays today