Leans for Thursday 2/12/09

[TheLemonDropKid]

Ck, go check out the Hockey Forum. specifically the thread by "TodaysAction". it should be one of the first few threads to chose from. what I like best is when someone describes your thread. it's great. just read it. You dont have to read every page, myabe just the last page, or the second to last page. you'll know it. look for my avatar.

Hey Jay!!!! I saw your last post on yesterday's thread regarding our Riverside game! Unbelievable.....in double OT??

Dude.....I think we can officially call ourselves "The Midnight Marauders". LOL!!!!!!!!

But you're the brains behind this thing....I just distract the bookies while you pick their pockets baby!!!

[vassman86]

also for the superstitious, anyone planning on taking off friday the 13th?

That didn't really cross my mind. And I'm pretty new to betting so this would mark my first Friday the 13th. I think I'll cap my games as usual and if I have a horrendous day, then I'll never bet on Friday the 13th again!

[solobass]

NCAA - Pick of the Day
724 Troy -1.5

86% of public money is on the same side as you on this pick

[solobass]

That didn't really cross my mind. And I'm pretty new to betting so this would mark my first Friday the 13th. I think I'll cap my games as usual and if I have a horrendous day, then I'll never bet on Friday the 13th again!

i might cap all the games and fade myself, or just go against the public. probably not laying a lot of money either way, and might just grab the popcorn for the day.

[esz04]

What about Gonzaga -4? Coming off that embarrassing loss against Memphis and playing a team that has looked like a shadow of itself without Patty Mills. Looks pretty good to me.

[BelieveTheHype]

What about Gonzaga -4? Coming off that embarrassing loss against Memphis and playing a team that has looked like a shadow of itself without Patty Mills. Looks pretty good to me.

on it -3.5

[handimann]

yes i am

are you from phoenix? i've been a fan since the barkley days too (that paxson shot still gives me nightmares). it's been a rough year from our suns and i really have no idea what to expect this next week or so, but i do not want to see a rebuilding era.

btw, i hate sarver with a passion

[so im zach]

I am rocking with:

Eastern Kentucky -10.5 1st Half Secret Play

Secret Play-O-Meter 35-12-0 ats

I'm definitely with you on this.

[BelieveTheHype]

just read that Allen wants to play tonight, but Doc said doubtful

[solobass]

plays for the day

Dallas ML +120
Warriors -3.5
bulls/heat under 195.5

[Dexter]

booked play-

warriors -3.5 (big)

[LUNT101]

just some stats for today, GS is 6-1 ATS at home against Por and 5-0 SU, just locked it in at -2 for 3.0
Chi is 9-2 ATS and 5-0 SU vs miami at home so really like CHi here, also take a loock at the over as it is 5-1 in Chi
most interesting Dal stat is they are 7-1 SU against Bos at home add in b2b night for Bos plus Dal getting points and I like Dal even more here, Dirk had a bad game against Chi but he will come back in this one plus the Bos injuries, give me Dallas and the points in this one

locked in: GS -2 for 3.0,
will lock in soon: Chi -? for 1.5 and Dal +? for 1.5
also tailing ck with his CBB picks today again

edit: plus Bos is only 5-5 ATS in b2b games this season

Nice trends. I will be locking in my plays now.

[LUNT101]

Locked in:

Bulls -3.5
Warriors -3.5
Mavs ML
Eastern Kentucky -10 1H

Small parlay of all 4, except used Mavs +2.5.

[roasthawg]

Locked in:

Bulls -3.5
Warriors -3.5
Mavs ML
Eastern Kentucky -10 1H

Small parlay of all 4, except used Mavs +2.5.

Against you on the Bulls and Warriors plays...with you on the Mavs. G/L.

[LUNT101]

Against you on the Bulls and Warriors plays...with you on the Mavs. G/L.

TBH, Bulls and Warriors are my 2 strongest plays...GL to you too.

[vassman86]

Warriors -3.5
I don't know what can be said about this game that hasn't already been said. I locked it in yesterday at -1.5, and talked myself into putting in another bet at -3.5 because I feel real good about this pick.
The Warriors are on a roll, especially at home. Their playing with some good chemistry at home; taking and making shots. I'll ride them out while they're hot. And I love betting against teams on the tail end of a back-to-back.

[solobass]

wtf, i am getting sick of sportsinsights. they have 99% of public money on the celtics moneyline and 1% on mavs no freaking way that is true unless they added celts moneyline to the stimulus bill!

[solobass]

and of course if the celts moneyline was added to the stimulus bill i will definitely fade congress.....

[peterpan19]

solobass
LOL

locked in chi -3.5 for 1.5
and tenn -10 for 2.0

[cocknocker]

****Card Change***

Boston-2 1st half
Boston-1 1st quarter

All that I know is that this version of the Celtics hasn't lost to the Mavs. The problem is that KG takes Dirk out of his game. Dirk is the Mavs primary weapon. Game over. The line has gone down now to a line where all that Boston has to do is win the game. The first half spread is too low for a team of Boston's stature. You can never count on Boston being the minority on any night with the consensus. It just isn't going to happen. You just have to know when to play em. The truth is, Dallas is an inferior team to the Celtics. Gotta roll with a team that only gives up 92 points per game..I'll take the Champs with the small first half chalk. I take this wager thinking that Ray Allen is NOT playing. Eddie House will do nicely. Give me the usual.

[LUNT101]

Sucks to see CK on the C's, but I stand by my Mavs pick. Even if Garnett shuts down Dirk, which for me is very difficult to assume, that means he will be using most of his energy on the defensive side of the ball and on the road, on the tail end of a b2b, he won't really be too productive offensively. Throw in the fact that Ray Allen, their most consistent player, will either be out or be playing with an injured shooting hand, and I don't see the Celts with enough firepower down the stretch tonight. I believe this is a refreshed Mavs team who are eager to see where they stand against the champs on their home floor going into the All-Star break.

Edit: Looks like you've moved to just the quarter and half lines. Can't say I disagree too much as I don't really have a lean either way but could easily see Boston covering those.

[repski]

Leaning Santa Clara(big) vs Pepperdine...

[BelieveTheHype]

teaser
chicago +2
dallas +9
golden state +2
gonzaga +1

[cocknocker]

There is no need for me to do an extensive write up for the Warriors game as everything that can be said has already been said. All that's left is for them to execute. I do think that the Blazers will win the 1st half with the carry over effect working in their favor, but the Warriors run and gun unlike any team in the NBA and they have oodles of off the dribble talent...

[BelieveTheHype]

mavs line is back up to +4

[cocknocker]

Yeah LUNT101,

I was looking at the wrong thing, and it was actually the 1st half, so I am going to wager on Boston's strengths, which are the 1st quarter and 1st halves. Dallas only wins the 1st quarter 47% of the time with a differential of +0.6, and Boston wins 70% of their 1st quarters and has a differential of +4.2 (WOW). 2nd quarter, Boston wins 56% and has a differential of +2.3, and Dallas wins them 47% of the time with a differential of -0.1. First half is Boston's by any average you can come up with.

You can find comfort in the fact that i am not taking the Gang Green for the game, just part of the game. Garnett has always owned Dirk, even when he was with the T-Wolves. It just is what it is. He can guard Dirk one on one, however, converseley, Dirk CANNOT guard Garnett one on one. He's too slow, and doesn't have the hops. I like the injured Celtics to do what they always do in first halves. Play shut down defense, grab all the rebounds and pound the ball into Paul Pierce and Leon Powe and KG. Rondo will more than handle his own against Kidd.

[repski]

****Card Change***

Boston-2 1st half
Boston-1 1st quarter

All that I know is that this version of the Celtics hasn't lost to the Mavs. The problem is that KG takes Dirk out of his game. Dirk is the Mavs primary weapon. Game over. The line has gone down now to a line where all that Boston has to do is win the game. The first half spread is too low for a team of Boston's stature. You can never count on Boston being the minority on any night with the consensus. It just isn't going to happen. You just have to know when to play em. The truth is, Dallas is an inferior team to the Celtics. Gotta roll with a team that only gives up 92 points per game..I'll take the Champs with the small first half chalk. I take this wager thinking that Ray Allen is NOT playing. Eddie House will do nicely. Give me the usual.

CK,
one thing to keep in mind is Boston is sending 3 players to the All-Star game....lost of other things running thru their heads other than BB...they sure played like it last night for 3 QTRS..

[BelieveTheHype]

i really doubt the celtics care about the asg since the three going have been plenty of times

[peterpan19]

ck
do you like tenn martin tonight ?
I sure do, what do you think ?

edit:
1st qtr plays
Bos -1
POR +1

[Dexter]

Lunt - how often do you make one of those "pick of the night" plays?

[cocknocker]

True that! I don't really think that Doc Rivers is going to rest his players for the benefit of them playing well in an All Star game. The Celtics are in a real race this year for homecourt in the Eastern Conference, with Cleveland and Orlando nipping at their heels. It's getting to that time of the year when every game counts. Doc could care less about All Star festivities. They want to end the 1st half of the season on a high note. Frankly I wouldn't be surprised to see this game spred to go up and surpass the original spread to be true.

[LUNT101]

Um, if my memory serves me correctly, those were all MLB wagers during the beginning of last season. I haven't done one in close to a year I'd say. I was 6-0 then when I lost one I just never really did them again. But I've been feeling really good about my take on the NBA the past few weeks so if it carries over into the 2nd half of the season maybe I'll look to make a couple in the upcoming months.

[cocknocker]

I absolutely love them tonight peterpan19, but I have to see what anthonydiamonds comes up with before I push around any more money. Moreover than that, I am pretty satisfied with my card for the evening. It will be hard to not place a small one on Tennessee martin though. They areheaded for the tournament if they can hold their own in the conference tournament....

[The_Kid]

the_kid
Bos was the 3.5 underdog last year in Dallas and they won 94-90, so the opening line of +4 for Dallas was right on

My bad. That's what I meant to put. Either way, I still like Boston as my previous posts said. I might just take a look at the 1Q and 1H plays like CK is playing.

This is news from Rotoworld regarding Ray Allen's status tonight.

Though an earlier report said that he would play through his hyperextended thumb Thursday, Ray Allen's status for the matchup with Dallas is still to be determined. Coach Doc Rivers doesn't think Allen will be able to play, but the Celtics shooting guard plans to test the thumb prior to the game. Even if he does sit out, the injury doesn't appear to be too serious and Allen should be fine in the long run.

Garnett has always owned Dirk, even when he was with the T-Wolves. It just is what it is. He can guard Dirk one on one, however, converseley, Dirk CANNOT guard Garnett one on one. He's too slow, and doesn't have the hops. I like the injured Celtics to do what they always do in first halves. Play shut down defense, grab all the rebounds and pound the ball into Paul Pierce and Leon Powe and KG. Rondo will more than handle his own against Kidd.

Yes, I definitely agree with your assessment of Dirk and KG. That will force Kidd to make shots and that's something he doesn't do on a consistent basis. Dallas is obviously better when he's setting up his teammates, not when he's scoring.

[Dexter]

the mavs confuse me.

tonight is about 1 game for me. going very big on nellies crew.

ck - go to the game - bring styles, grumpy and the rest of the pc crew - come up with another pc play while helping the home court edge for GS tonight