Leans for Thursday 1/22/09 CK versus hockeytown11 Challenge

cheesehead004 · 01-22-09, 01:20 AM

I'm all over Boston tomorrow, I dont even care about the spread. They match up perfectly with Orlando IMO.

The_Kid · 01-22-09, 01:41 AM

CK, I think you're going to take Boston. You don't like playing home teams, especially coming off road trips. Orlando was very successful on this last trip as they beat all three Western Conference division leaders. In your words, "after being away for so long, they'll have to deal with the wives and kids." Boston had a tune-up game in Miami and they have regained their swagger after being in such a funk. I know Orlando might have revenge on their minds after getting whipped in Boston earlier in December but I think Boston also wants to reclaim the spot of "Best in the East."

For NCAA basketball tomorrow, I want all of you to take a good look at the Gonzaga vs Pepperdine game tomorrow. I'm almost 100% sure there will be no ML attached to that first half spread. Pepperdine just doesn't have the horses to compete with Gonzaga. Take a look at last year's results between the two schools and you'll understand what I'm saying.

I just checked and they actually have no ML for the game. I'm going to see if the linesmakers put up something in the morning. If not, I'm taking Gonzaga for the 1H and possibly the game. Laying -26 on the road might not be too good but I really don't see any possible way Pepperdine keeps this even remotely close.

jalein · 01-22-09, 01:46 AM

Understanding Morrison and maximizing money.......

First, I am no Morrison system vet. I have been using it and making money for about a week. So, here is my two cents on it and my understanding of maximizing money and opportunity. The Cleveland game Wed night was a "B" Morrison bet since they lost their fist game, the "A"of a 3 game road trip against a different conference. I wagered all that I lost,including the juice plus what I would have won the first game and cashed the ticket tonight

My book had Cleveland -1 vs. Portland. Since I was concerned that the public would be more heavily on Cleveland as gametime approached, I locked in there for fear that the spread would go to -2 or -3. Given that the Morrison system calls for a 3 pt buy on each game ( I dont buy 3,I buy 2 courtesy of GOOD info from Dex), to me there was NO value in buying 2 pts to go from -1 to plus 1. Given that a game will never be won by 1/2 pt, I opted to take the additional 30% juice that I would have spent on the 2 pt buy and instead wagered it on Cleveland. Assuming the wager by the Morrison system would have called for me to bet a dime, I instead wagered 1.3 dimes and won, an additional 30% profit. The way I see it, the key to successful, profitable wagering is money management and objectivity. generally speaking, I think it risky to modify a proven system. However, there are times and I think the Cleveland "B" wager vs Portalnd was one of those times when it is good to remember that nothing exists in a vacuum and to use your common sense. In such a case where the mandated buy is not going to significantly modify your risk, it may be wise and very likely more profitable to reallocate the juice to the wager and maximize that money. The point that I am making is that such a move can make all the difference between a winning and losing week. My goal is to cash weekly from my book. I dont give a damn if its $500 or 5 dimes, but I manage my money so that I take 1/2 my profit weekly and the other half builds my roll. Thus far, I have been able to get my free Fed Ex check from my book weekly 6 weeks running. And you know what? I am liking it. Just sharing my observations and experiences hopefully for the group good.

jalein · 01-22-09, 01:51 AM

Also, this far I have gone 5-2 on betting heavy favorites with no money line. I think I am gonna track my progress and compare to betting only those games that I would cap with this system. For those interested, I will be happy to share my results

2qwik · 01-22-09, 01:53 AM

Jalein,
So what book do you use and they dont charge for using FEDEX a fee of 35 dollars ?

Like the write up and I see that you got that money management scheme down

cs11787 · 01-22-09, 01:57 AM

Hey Jalein,
Good to see that system is working for you! I have been using the system for about a week or two also and have been very successful. I have been picking and choosing my games carefully though, not playing every single team that is going on a road trip. For instance I did not play Washingtons first road game but played them today as bet "A" considering they still have two games left in the series. I also didn't play Cleveland against LAL but played them today as a bet "A" also. I dont buy the 3 extra points though (mainly because my local doesnt sell points) and still have been very successful! I have played 5 series so far and only one of them has gone to bet "B". This system is working wonderfully so far!

jalein · 01-22-09, 01:59 AM

Originally posted by 2qwik

Jalein,
So what book do you use and they dont charge for using FEDEX a fee of 35 dollars ?

Like the write up and I see that you got that money management scheme down

THey normally do charge, but I have got them to the tune of 5 figures a few times over. That is a side perk they throw me to keep me with them. If you want to know my book, PM me and I will be happy to share, but I dont wanna call too much attention to it by calling it by name publicly. They also give me a 25% free play with ALL my deposits.....so I automatically withdraw a few dimes a month, wait a few days then redeoposit the same loot and get a dime free play at least once a month by recycling money that I have already won from them. This shit is gangsta if you understand how it works and have some discipline.

jalein · 01-22-09, 02:03 AM

cs1187.....

I got a GOOD tip from Dex about the 3 pt buy. Statistically, you do VERY well with the 2 pt buy vs the 3 pt buy and it keeps you from having to pay the gangsta juice of 50%. Be mindful that the system the way I understand it is very vulnerable without purchasing some points for insulation. I am glad you have been winning, but not buying some points (2pts) may eventually prove costly. You may wanna split your loot to a book that lets you buy pts and insulate your money with the 2 pt buy. Either way, keep getting that paper bro!

kitsters2k · 01-22-09, 02:10 AM

hey jalein what is the morrison system?

Originally posted by jalein

Understanding Morrison and maximizing money.......

First, I am no Morrison system vet. I have been using it and making money for about a week. So, here is my two cents on it and my understanding of maximizing money and opportunity. The Cleveland game Wed night was a "B" Morrison bet since they lost their fist game, the "A"of a 3 game road trip against a different conference. I wagered all that I lost,including the juice plus what I would have won the first game and cashed the ticket tonight

My book had Cleveland -1 vs. Portland. Since I was concerned that the public would be more heavily on Cleveland as gametime approached, I locked in there for fear that the spread would go to -2 or -3. Given that the Morrison system calls for a 3 pt buy on each game ( I dont buy 3,I buy 2 courtesy of GOOD info from Dex), to me there was NO value in buying 2 pts to go from -1 to plus 1. Given that a game will never be won by 1/2 pt, I opted to take the additional 30% juice that I would have spent on the 2 pt buy and instead wagered it on Cleveland. Assuming the wager by the Morrison system would have called for me to bet a dime, I instead wagered 1.3 dimes and won, an additional 30% profit. The way I see it, the key to successful, profitable wagering is money management and objectivity. generally speaking, I think it risky to modify a proven system. However, there are times and I think the Cleveland "B" wager vs Portalnd was one of those times when it is good to remember that nothing exists in a vacuum and to use your common sense. In such a case where the mandated buy is not going to significantly modify your risk, it may be wise and very likely more profitable to reallocate the juice to the wager and maximize that money. The point that I am making is that such a move can make all the difference between a winning and losing week. My goal is to cash weekly from my book. I dont give a damn if its $500 or 5 dimes, but I manage my money so that I take 1/2 my profit weekly and the other half builds my roll. Thus far, I have been able to get my free Fed Ex check from my book weekly 6 weeks running. And you know what? I am liking it. Just sharing my observations and experiences hopefully for the group good.

hey jalein what is the morrison system???

BelieveTheHype · 01-22-09, 02:12 AM

Which are the secret plays?

jalein · 01-22-09, 02:23 AM

Kitsters2k....
Google it or ask JohnMorr08. He had a link that explained it perfectly but it was removed 2 days ago. If you cant find it, PM me and I will cut and past it to you.

cocknocker · 01-22-09, 02:33 AM

CK Secret 1st half plays:

Tennessee Martin-10
Gonzaga-14.5
Cal-10

Although W.Kentucky-7 doesn't fit the criteria it is still a good first half play, and worth looking into... Usually the line should be over 11, but 10 is in the same general area, so I'll roll with em due to the fact that they more than likely will be 11 by 10:00am...

I am sure these lines will go up by 10:00am so if you are interested in them better get em early

cocknocker · 01-22-09, 02:50 AM

I use that system too jalein, but I have a few systems of my own that are just as successful without all of the vigorish; the PC Play, the 1st inning wager, and the secret play. And guess what? Mine are free of charge, lol!

My secret play involves catching all college football and basketball games and playing the favorite in first halves that are not assigned moneylines. 16-4 ats last 20

My baseball play is a prop bet wherein I take ALL 1st innings to have a run score staring after May, and when live betting I am simply doubling up through the third inning until one does score or else call it a loss and move on. Averages 300 more wins than losses per year in baseball which includes the college season, the college world series and MLB playoffs, where I went on a tear and only lost 3 of these types of wagers the ENTIRE MLB playoffs and World Series. And one of them was the extra game between the Twins and the White Sox.

The PC Play, well, I can't tell you guys everything I know. That'd be lke Heineken giving away their recipe over the internet. 14-4 ats since November when I joined SBR.

That's how you make money.

Then on the other hand we have guys like lonesomeloser who wager -250 and -290 on basketball games as a habit, and have no clue as to what they are doing.

pho3nix32 · 01-22-09, 02:57 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

Then on the other hand we have guys like lonesomeloser who wager -250 and -290 on basketball games as a habit, and have no clue as to what they are doing.

lambogb · 01-22-09, 03:06 AM

how yall feelin bout washington to cover?
i hate betting on them..

*washington wizards that is* <-edit

cocknocker · 01-22-09, 03:10 AM

We have another line change in the 32 person tournament

MVFC182 · 01-22-09, 03:12 AM

Im leaning toward Under in Bos/Orl. Orlando are 5-0 Under when coming back from a 3 game roadtrip while Boston 2-0 Under in a road game where where the total is between 190 and 194.5 points

jgbgsox · 01-22-09, 03:15 AM

lonesome pissed about that golden st loss haha -290

danrman · 01-22-09, 03:29 AM

its early but im likin orlando and washington in the nba... celtics are 1-5 ats in their last 6 visits to disneyworld and the magic are playing w/ revenge.. they should start slow 1st game back home after long road trip but warm up and get it done in the 2nd half... the lakers have a big tv game vs. san antonio next and are 14 1/2 pt favs to a wash. team that gets a rare chance to perform for a national audience.. remember what they did to cleve. on christmas in front of a national audience .. i think washington might be a good 1st half bet also.. its early but thats my opinions at this moment

lonesomeloser · 01-22-09, 03:30 AM

Originally posted by jgbgsox

lonesome pissed about that golden st loss haha -290

Nah I made a profit for the day but the GS game was a bad beat.

strybie · 01-22-09, 03:33 AM

CK versus hockeytown11 Challenge

what is the score ?

Thanks, that the best may win

I'll try CK NCAA picks once more. Last time I picked them I lost 3 of the 4. Can't be worser I guess

wangichu · 01-22-09, 04:07 AM

Originally posted by lonesomeloser

Nah I made a profit for the day but the GS game was a bad beat.

you could say that... I caught a good beat on OKC +6/ML and made the same money with a lot less money risk

nonsense48 · 01-22-09, 05:02 AM

yo hockey, dayton is -5 not +5 and even at -5 it's one of my best plays for the day along with w.ky-12 wright st.-9 as i have to agree with you on these 2 CK and orl-5.

RoagBettor · 01-22-09, 07:05 AM

Phoenix was a big disappointment last night but I had the Hornets and Celtics.

Georgetown coming off the Duke loss looks good to me today and they'll take it out on West Virginia (of course, I'm biased since I went to G'town). Got it at -4.5 but it's moved to -5.

I like the Celtics tonight. They're just playing too well again and Orlando is due for a slump. I think the champs have something to prove and will cover or win SU.

My last pick is Valpo to cover against Wis-Mil; this is a classic trap game and there have been several this week already.

jalein · 01-22-09, 07:24 AM

CK......

I feel you brother. I am all about common sense and making money. You did rather detailed post a couple months ago about your first inning system in Baseball. Hell, I cut and pasted that in a word document and saved that puppy. I had asked you about the favorite money line thing about a week or so ago. I misunderstood what you said and I have been playing the favorites for the game with no money line and making money. Your PC plays I simply follow without question. I bet 5% of my roll on them and see what happens. Since I jumped on board with the PC plays I am 5-1. My own personal rules for wagering are I never bet on a team that I am a fan of cuz it clouds my judgment. I never play hunches or "feelings". If I dont have some numbers/stats to back up my plays, I double my money folding it in half an putting it back in my pocket. In short, I am all over any system that is logical, and can make me steady money. And finally, when I hear anyone speak of the word lock, and guaranteed, I usually run like Hell, cuz they dont know what they are doing. Anyone who knows wagering is not so foolish as to use such language

Dexter · 01-22-09, 08:04 AM

while we all made money yesterday, that thread was once again a joke. it would really be nice if the moderators here recognized the trolls, and take action before a thread gets to 20 pages. this is totally not why i started posting here, and to come back to the thread after a few hrs, and have to sift thru 4 pages of garbage is a waste of time. lets stop acknowledging the trolls during game action at least and get back to talking sports with reasons why we make plays.

what a game tonight in orlando. boston comes in off a win in miami where the starters did play until late in the 4th - while the magic are well rested and looking to avenge a loss at boston earlier in the year by 19. the magic are first home off a 4 game west coast trip, but you have to think they'll be amped for this one but could very well be rusty early (4 days off). boston is playing their 3rd in 4 nights. vs the new look celts, the magic are 3-1 ats at home the last 4 games. vegas is begging for boston money with this line at 5.

-magic (big)

JGILL50 · 01-22-09, 08:25 AM

agree 100% dex lets get it

Pensinger1 · 01-22-09, 08:39 AM

Good Luck Dex!

Solid write up and I agree, I think the Magic get the job done tomorrow, but I've personally blacklisted the Cavs, Magic and Celts for the next couple weeks. I will not be fading any of these teams for several games to come, but I hope you cash this sucker! I myself am going to grab the popcorn, sit back and enjoy the show. This one should be exciting.

Dexter · 01-22-09, 08:43 AM

yeah guys, you can just log into the greek for free and look up the games that have no moneyline 1st half and a spread of 10 or more..

http://www.thegreek.com/sports/home.asp

Karayilan9 · 01-22-09, 08:57 AM

DEX are you takin Miami moneyline or at -5.5? With Bostons recent form I think its quite a big line, this could be a tite one.

Dexter · 01-22-09, 09:09 AM

pensinger - i am done playing against the big 3 large, unless they are up against one of the other big 3 (cavs, magic, celts). the play just makes sense to me.

kara - no money line for me - see how you're thinking its too many points. thats what the books want you to think today..............i think? haha

i agree with what wang said yesteday about vegas trying to trick bettors in games involving the celts etc....but in spots vs lesser teams i think that would apply. this is a matchup of heavyweights tonight, and i feel vegas is telling us who to bet. on top of that, i simply like the magic based on the factors entering the game.

Dexter · 01-22-09, 09:14 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

CK Secret 1st half plays:

Tennessee Martin-10
Gonzaga-14.5
Cal-10

Although W.Kentucky-7 doesn't fit the criteria it is still a good first half play, and worth looking into... Usually the line should be over 11, but 10 is in the same general area, so I'll roll with em due to the fact that they more than likely will be 11 by 10:00am...

I am sure these lines will go up by 10:00am so if you are interested in them better get em early

not only is the line not double digits, but there also is a money line. not sure if it was just posted and you're unaware.

lonesomeloser · 01-22-09, 09:23 AM

Cricket: 50 over one day international, SCG, Australia v South Africa

Form:
Australia - WLWWW
South Africa - LWWWW

Team News
Aussies
In: Tait from rest- 160 km fast bowler who is the most scariest fast bowler in the world. He dosen't no where the ball is going to land so what chance does the batsman have. Wicked inswinging yorker.
In: Johnson - currently australias premier strike bowler with great wicket taking deliveries.
SA
Possible out: 50% chance SA top ranked fast bowler Steyn will miss this game due to fatigue.

Team Line ups

Australia 1 Shaun Marsh, 2 David Warner, 3 Ricky Ponting (capt), 4 Michael Hussey, 5 David Hussey, 6 Cameron White, 7 Brad Haddin (wk), 8 James Hopes/Nathan Hauritz, 9 Mitchell Johnson, 10 Nathan Bracken, 11 Shaun Tait

South Africa (possible) 1 Herschelle Gibbs, 2 Hashim Amla, 3 Jacques Kallis, 4 AB de Villiers, 5 JP Duminy, 6 Neil McKenzie, 7 Mark Boucher (wk), 8 Albie Morkel, 9 Johan Botha (capt), 10 Dale Steyn/Morne Morkel, 11 Makhaya Ntini.

Reasoning:
- These big ins for the Aussies in the bowling department, along with having the number 1 world ranked one day international bowler in Bracken gives the Aussies real wicket taking presence and a genuine fear factor in Tait as batsmen are scared to face him. Bracken is highly economical being hard to score off and johnson is a proven wicketaker whilst Steyn is a massive loss for SA if he does not play.
- Aussies have won the last 4 games against SA at the SCG.
- Aussies have the more explosive line up with young gun openers Marsh (IPL best batsmen) and Warner (quickest 1 day century for NSW in history) capable of exploding into action here and giving the aussies early control, especially with Warner playing on his home ground.
- Aussie batting line up is strong with former openning batsmen listed to come in at 8 highlights their batting depth, with plenty of 6 hitters in the mix.
- South africa will struggle to chase down any big score aussies could make as they have some plodders in their line up, especially with Kallis and McKenzie who can by slow scoring at times whilst using up to many balls
- South Africa are also missing their tailsman and captain Smith through injury who is a rock for them at the top of the order and in the top 5 batsmen in the world on current form..
- Probably only 4 South africans would make it into the Aussie XI which shows the overall quality of both sides.
- Overall, they are both quality teams but I feel the aussies have the edge in the bowling department to get the job done by taking early wickets and slowing down the run rate.

Selection: Aussies

There yo go CK fade that pick for 10 dimes and make yourself a fortune.

JGILL50 · 01-22-09, 09:33 AM

dex or ck orlando is at -4.5 now how much do you think it will move and when would be the best time to grab it. should we just wait it out. i would love to see -3.5