Wed, Jan 21 Plays

[50lipa]

How on earth did Dallas get 42 points in the 2nd?

[curious]

new orleans -3 second half

NOOOOO New Orleans money line 2H

[50lipa]

Think i'm going to jump the 'no more martingale boat' if the team is down double digits or something, talk about no will to play, Dallas wins the award.

[curious]

Think i'm going to jump the 'no more martingale boat' if the team is down double digits or something, talk about no will to play, Dallas wins the award.

I try to filter out the teams that are getting massacred for the martingale. But you never know, a lot of the time they bounce back. But if you are watching the game and the team looks like they gave up then it is not a bad idea to just take the 1 loss and move on.

[alittlemoresound]

lakers 2nd half looking good right now... to bet at half time ?

what u think curious

[brooks85]

I can't believe the lakers lost the 1Q like that.

[curious]

lakers 2nd half looking good right now... to bet at half time ?

what u think curious

Do you actually read my posts? Lakers 2H is a pick. Look at the first post in the thread.

[alittlemoresound]

being a 16 point favorite down by a few baskets at half time maybe... losing Q 1 and Q 2....

smells like a good 2nd half bet

[50lipa]

Cavs 1Q/1H pass, looking like 3Q Portland, and then 4Q Cavs to sweep the game.

LBJ with 12pts 5reb 9ast, looking like a tripple double in the making!

[JColli32]

does ur book let u bet the Quarters at the end of each quarter my book only offers 1q lines

[50lipa]

Hey Curious we went great on all boards apart from 1-4 in 4Q, wouldn't it be smarter or better to say wiser to decide on 4Q individually depending on the game?

I mean, thats a retorical question seeing as i will do that from now on, but it really can get out of hand, or is it simply statistics at work, you win some you lose some?

[Karayilan9]

Curious what has been more sucessful, betting on 1st QTR and martingaling until the team wins one, or the 3rd QTR?

From a purely mathmatical point of view, 1st QTR betting + betting on the next 3 QTR's until one covers drastically increases the probaility of a win. You have 4 50% chances of covering, much better than an overall game wager probability wise.

I've been tracking QTR results for the past few weeks now and am shocked by the sucess rate of any team winning at least 1 quarter, if we take the last week into account, out of around 50 matches there were only 3 matches were a team failed to win at least one quarter.


Bucks 19 21 24 21



85

Trail Blazers22 23 26 31



102

76ers 26 26 24 31



107

Knicks 25 25 16 31



97

Pistons 18 28 21 12



79

Thunder 21 28 22 18



89

Now when we look closer at these 3 games, the Portland-Buck game wouldn't have been a good QTR game to bet on as both teams have pretty poor 1st QTR records.

The 76'ers have a 10% better record than Knicks in 1st QTR's, in addition to this 76'ers hot form would have made it more favorable to bet 76'ers 1st QTR anyway.

The Detroit game QTR wise was a total upset, 1st QTR Pistons are statistically much stronger at 65% wins compared to Thunders dismal 34% and they didn't win any of the next quarters, as favourites they wouldn't have got the + points line so the draw would have been void or a loss.

The last game is an exception, however, it shows how important Curious' hot-cold team picking theory is as we can't alone rely on statistics, other factors must be considered in making a good forecast.

[G's pks]

Curious you are doing awesome! Now that I have been tracking you, you are the first really good consistant capper on b-ball I have spotted!