Leans for 1/17/09 Hockeytown11 vs. CK Day 1

jaymac82980 · 01-17-09, 01:32 AM

ck, why wouldnt you throw the celts pick in there. to me that seems way more secure than denver beating orlando. just curious.

jgbgsox · 01-17-09, 01:50 AM

i have charlotte +2.5 not - 2.5, denver as a pick ,and den/orl 210 i should throw a nickel on den now since its a pick and will probally go up

jaymac82980 · 01-17-09, 01:51 AM

ck...northeastern 5-0 ats last 5 games, hofstra 1-4 ats last 5. northeaster as a favorite 8-0 ats.. 6-3 ats road games. 6-0 vs conference teams ats...blah blah blah. Northeastern looks nice in the early game.

may be a nice starter for the day tomorrow. Take Northeastern -3.

nonsense48 · 01-17-09, 01:54 AM

CK, good luck brother. should be fun to watch

Dexter · 01-17-09, 01:57 AM

is this the main thread for sat? i hope not..

not sure why you're even bothering.

nonsense48 · 01-17-09, 02:00 AM

hopefully DEX, this will be a better day as far as the thread goes. we need to get rid of a few clowns that stroll thru here with nothing to offer but bullshit and daggers

jaymac82980 · 01-17-09, 02:05 AM

Jay-Play #2 Northeastern -3. this IS the second jay-play, and it will cash.

Official!

cocknocker · 01-17-09, 02:18 AM

Dexter,

It's time to clean up the thread now. Other than that, it's business as usual. I will respond to the issues of others.

jaymac,

Altough the Celtics is a good pick and one of my original thoughts, just watching the Magic dispatch of the Lakers and thinking of the implications of the consensus for tomorrow, I always like my chances at fading a team that won in primetime especially as a dog. Orlando is on a back to back facing Denver in altitude and a different time zone. Throw in the fact that denver is 5-0 straight up and ats against Orlando at home, and I've got to lke my chances on that one. I have never been anything near predictable. Good luck tomorrow jay-play

peetlui · 01-17-09, 02:19 AM

Ck, what's up my friend? Illost alittle last evening but it was offset by the bucks game that you placed a Heavy emphasis on. Thanks, that was great. I do enjoy reading your insights on the picks you make daily, will you be elaborating on your above picks? I'm looking forward to it. I really wish you wouldn't let this hockeypuck fella or whatever he calls himself get your neck hairs up. Like water off a ducks back just let it roll off. You're the Man.

jaymac82980 · 01-17-09, 02:26 AM

Thanks for the vote of convidence. I am hoping to go 2-0 by 2pm when northeastern covers. at that time the celts should be riding a nice comfortable lead. I am backing the celts -7.

the only other insight I have right now is with hockeytown11, I completely agree with the OVER for the orlando/denver game. Orlando was hel to 109 by the lakers, which is low compared to what orlando can do. Denver is a smaller team, and they move the ball at an evern faster pace. Look for both teams to put up a lot of points. Orlando will be coming off the win looking for more blood. I knwo CK thinks denver will win, and who knows (I think Orlando has it). my only prediction is for a high scoring affair. Dnever/Orlando OVER 210.

I will be gone all day tomorrow, so all the haters don't need to waste the threads time with ridicule. I may check out some lines for Sunday, but will be busy with the girl tomorrow spending "quality time".

There you have it. 3 WINS.

cocknocker · 01-17-09, 02:27 AM

hockeytown11 is not a worry, peetlui. This blowout will be legendary. I actually neede to address the goings on in the thread, and at the same time, I needed a little push. So for that point I am thankful for his small talk. But now comes the hard part. Putting himself on the line. It's easy to predict winners after the games are 75% over, which is exactly what he was doing yesterday. I know his type. I am not worried about him, just ready to cast shade on his tacticts.

peetlui · 01-17-09, 02:36 AM

Gotcha CK, guess we all have our axes to grind. Not particularly worried about you, it's he who should be concerned. You're gonna take that axe and make mincemeat of him. Kinda looking forward to it ....he is VERY annoying.

doggyfather · 01-17-09, 02:52 AM

BOS -7
NOH -1
SAS -3
MIL -3
PHI -3
ORL -1

my picks.

cs11787 · 01-17-09, 03:09 AM

CK,
Are you not taking SA tomorrow? The Morrison play calls for it considering they got embarassed tonight.

spal2811 · 01-17-09, 03:10 AM

HOU -3.5
BOS -6

wake forest +2.5 my play of the day

strybie · 01-17-09, 03:20 AM

Orl ml
mil -2
nyk ml

Illusion · 01-17-09, 04:02 AM

Originally posted by nonsense48

hopefully DEX, this will be a better day as far as the thread goes. we need to get rid of a few clowns that stroll thru here with nothing to offer but bullshit and daggers

Everybody needs to settle down. I will be watching this thread very closely.

LUNT101 · 01-17-09, 04:02 AM

Alright guys, I've recently started looking at games from a slightly different perspective and I've been doing fairly well. I have a few early leans for tomorrow.

At first glance, here is what I'm thinking.

Hornets -1 - Chris Paul & Co. are not happy with the way the game went tonight. The effort wasn't there and they weren't knocking down any shots. While they are on a back2back, so are the Pistons, in the midst of a 4 game losing streak including loses to the Bobcats, Pacers and Thunder. They are in disarray. Having played in OKC tonight, they will not have much time to prepare for the Hornets who had all their holes exploited tonight and should be able to come together as a squad and make things happen in Detroit. This line is way too small.

Spurs -3 - CK had been looking at teams ATS after beating the Celtics and they were an 0fer for a while until Cleveland stopped the streak last week. Well, there is a very similar stat for the teams that beat the Cavs. Out of the Cavs 6 losses other than the Bulls, teams are 2-4 ATS in the following game after defeating Cleveland...one of which was the Celtics who they played on opening night so that's basically a void. So here is Chicago, coming off a comeback overtime victory against the Cavs, playing the Spurs who were playing a good brand of basketball until an embarrassing defeat tonight at the hands of the Sixers. The Spurs are looking to bounce back strong and the Bulls are simply in the way. Chicago does not play good defense and the Spurs will exploit them. Again, a spread that is much, much too small.

Knicks +1 1Q- The Knicks are as up and down as they come. However the last 3 games, they have played fairly well, winning in New Orleans and playing a tough home and home against the Wizards (who are actually playing better as of late). After the second game, a sluggish game in Washington in which the Knicks blew a 4th quarter lead, the Knicks will be looking to rebound strong back at the Garden, against a team in the 76ers who probably are feeling damn good about themselves after blowing out the Spurs tonight. Look for the Knicks to jump out to an early lead, but most likely not cover for the game, as the Sixers are actually playing at a high level right now.

Dallas -2 (projected) - Dallas had been playing poorly heading into their 3 game road trip against Phoenix, Sacramento, and Denver. They did not win one of those games (although they were close in each) and then came home on the back end of a back2back and had to face the rested Hornets who were hungry coming off a loss to the Knicks. Just a bad spot for them. My point: Although they've lost 4 in a row, Dallas has been playing better and having not played in 3 days, they will be rested and ready to go against the Jazz who are coming to town tomorrow. Believe that they are NOT happy having lost all of these games in a row. On the other hand, this game will be the 3rd game in 4 nights for the Jazz, including a game tonight in Memphis. So they will be on a back2back coming into a hostile environment with a rested, hungry team. Who is going to guard Dirk? Millsap is doubtful as of right now. If Dallas is getting points at any time once this spread is released, jump on it QUICK.

MJ · 01-17-09, 04:54 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

hockeytown11 is not a worry, peetlui. This blowout will be legendary. I actually neede to address the goings on in the thread, and at the same time, I needed a little push. So for that point I am thankful for his small talk. But now comes the hard part. Putting himself on the line. It's easy to predict winners after the games are 75% over, which is exactly what he was doing yesterday. I know his type. I am not worried about him, just ready to cast shade on his tacticts.

I hear you CK. Sometimes people start ridiculing a pick before the game is over and the pick actually ends up winning. You should have see a thread the other day on The Citadel game. Some nasty bantering going around. Citadel was a -1 pick and people were calling the thread author a moron and a fraud and other mean sh*t. Citadel ended up winning the game by 5 points. Which is what the guy said it was going to be. The game aint over until its over and nobody should dog anyone's pick. If you don't like other people's handicapping information pick them yourself. Those kinds of people deserve to lose every last penny.

I appreciate what you do CK and you have my support. Win or Lose.

Maxwell48 · 01-17-09, 06:32 AM

Hi,
I've been reading for a few days and now I decided to post...
First of all thanks to ck for your advices!Think they're really helpful...
Especially going big on milwaukee

Now I need your advice:
For me it seems like a no-brainer going big on wake forest +2,5 against clemson at a 1.91 ???The rate just seems too good with that spread

thanks in advance!
Sorry for my bad english, but I'm not from the US...

Willie Bee · 01-17-09, 07:16 AM

Gentlemen, let's get one thing very clear before this thread gets cooking. This forum is for discussing NBA basketball, and this thread is for discussing NBA action on Saturday, Jan 17. The childish, name-calling schoolyard pissing matches will not be tolerated. So instead of doing that and then reporting the other guy when he does it back to you, the simple solution is to JUST TALK ABOUT SATURDAY'S NBA GAME IN HERE. Thanks.

Dexter · 01-17-09, 07:34 AM

Originally posted by cs11787

CK,
Are you not taking SA tomorrow? The Morrison play calls for it considering they got embarassed tonight.

cs11787 - dont forget to mention that the system calls for buying pts. someone could see this and think simply taking the spurs is some big play. its the spurs buying points on top.

darkenergy · 01-17-09, 07:40 AM

dexter, you up this early? good morning sir

MJ · 01-17-09, 07:42 AM

Originally posted by Dexter

cs11787 - dont forget to mention that the system calls for buying pts. someone could see this and think simply taking the spurs is some big play. its the spurs buying points on top.

Yes the Morrison system says to buy 3 points. Since the line is -3.5 you may get more value from doing the ML depending on your sportsbook.

Pinnacle does not have their ML lines out yet. But usually -3.5 is -160 at Pinnacle.

Dexter · 01-17-09, 07:50 AM

excellent post MJ - thats exactly right, and what should have been done last night on the spurs is you had to buy the 3pts at the higher price.

the "new" celtics are 3-0 su and ats the last 3 trips to nj winning by an avg of 10ppg. the nets play in front of arguably the worst home court fans in the nba - and it shows with their 8-14 ats mark at home. factor in their 3rd game in 4 days at an early start, and i'll ride the green wave. they showed a few weeks ago that the early start time didnt bother them in toronto.

-celtics
__________________
both teams are on back to back off of su losses, but the pistons will be playing their 4th game in 5 nights. pistons have also been a solid fade at the palace going 6-12 ats. cp3 finds a way to get it done on the road.

-hornets
___________________
the magic did exactly what i wanted them to do last night - not only cash the ats in la, but win the game su. thats sets up a huge challenge for them on sat night. they are playing on a btb coming off a big win vs the lakers on national tv - now they have to travel to the high altitude and deal with a nuggets team that has beaten them 5 straight times at home both su and ats by an avg margin of 10ppg.

-nuggets (large)
________________
the heat are playing great ball on this road trip having covered 4 straight ats and 3 of 4 su. this is a revenge game as the rockets won in miami earlier this year. hou is a very poor 6-11 ats at home. now, tmac being out shouldnt concern rocket backers too much, but artest is out and he makes a big difference on the defensive end. wade catching 4 pts here is a gift, as i actually had my line set at hou -2.5.

-heat (large)
__________________

Dexter · 01-17-09, 07:58 AM

[quote=LUNT101;1415387]
Spurs -3 - CK had been looking at teams ATS after beating the Celtics and they were an 0fer for a while until Cleveland stopped the streak last week. Well, there is a very similar stat for the teams that beat the Cavs. Out of the Cavs 6 losses other than the Bulls, teams are 2-4 ATS in the following game after defeating Cleveland...

awesome post LUNT, and great information on the cavs opponent. i'm going to look into the same today for teams that win su vs the magic and lakers. be back later.

these are the kind of posts which made me start posting in this forum in the first place.

Dexter · 01-17-09, 07:59 AM

Originally posted by darkenergy

dexter, you up this early? good morning sir

its 8am - my body stays in work mode on the weekend - but i'll prob nap again before the afternoon. haha

darkenergy · 01-17-09, 08:35 AM

Totally agreed with LUNT101 on spurs write up

I was down big last couple of weeks

. I got only few hours sleep last night, and prepare for today games. The only game that pop out to me that worth to play big is Spurs. The reasons are Spurs is still a very solid team, an embarrassing loss to 76er last night (btw, anyone noticed that look like Parker and Duncan were sat out for most of 4th quarter, am I right. They both got like 29 minutes each), Chicago beating Cav. (CK style of play fit in here), Spurs is on a second game to bouch back in the three non-conference games series (John Morrison system), and look like Spurs own the series with Bulls SU and ATS with the last couple years, plus bookie own me so much money of this Spurs since last week, time to get back some

. I am a little supprised to see CK didn't included Spurs in his card today, wondering why?
Can anyone point out why Duncan and Parker seem like sat out for most of the 4th quarter last night. Look like all of the starter are not playing in 4th quarter, am I wrong???
This is the first game that I do my own thinking and may go very big on this. If I lost, I may have to stop this betting thing and Ebaying some of my toys.

fusion · 01-17-09, 08:55 AM

Hey guys, I am new to SBR. I have been following this thread closely for the last 3 weeks and I have definitely learn a lot. The last week hasn't been great but I know that you got to have ups and downs in wagering. I like dexter's celtics pick for today but I am just curious why is the odds so high at celtics -7 +100. Am i missing something?

JohnMorr08 · 01-17-09, 08:55 AM

Couple of quick notes:

I believe that someone was looking for a good site with Quarter info: http://www.82games.com/0809/QSORT11.HTM

I LOVE that site... just be sure (if you put the info in a spreadsheet) that you go back and check the site before you use the stats because they update the info regularly.

Also, just a reminder: B bets this year have hit 100%. So, you have to ride that .... if you lost any money at all on the Spurs last night you should be playing them ML to get that $ back. I'm not saying it's a LOCK believe me I know better than that. But the #'s are what they are.

Good Luck as Always!!

solobass · 01-17-09, 09:19 AM

has been interesting on sbr for the short time i have been on. hey i am an emotional cat too, but the negativity is a no-go. everyone will win, everyone will lose. also, i do handicap the games before looking at the lines and letting the data just speak for itself. here is a few tidbits here and what i am looking at for today's nba action.

no/det, wait and see who det starts as there is a big chemistry problem having ai and rip play the 2 and 3, prince cannot guard a true 4. if they start the "big" lineup better defense + more rebounds = more offensive opportunities. my capping says hornets, but i am waiting to hear the det starters first just to be safe.

also early i am looking at mia with the SU win against the rockets. -7 for the celts might be too many points for me here, but will be watching the particulars and choosing later. have a great morning all!

BiggDogg5n2 · 01-17-09, 09:22 AM

CK...
Dropped by to say BOL Today.....
I let "Kongkiller" know how to find you guyz....Dogg

fusion · 01-17-09, 09:29 AM

celtics blew up nets in the last round by 32 points and power ratings has it that celtics by 11. also celtics vs nets ats 9-1. what do you guys think?

fusion · 01-17-09, 09:38 AM

celtics down to -6.5 on my book