HEAT/PACERS GAME 3 PRELUDE AND GAMBLING IDEOLOGIES - I Know What The Books are Doing

[KushMoney]

The line for Game 3 you might ask?


Well, it is the only one that will win the Books money.


A trap line of PK will be set up to lure in action on Miami. Then eventually a spread of -1.5 Miami Heat for game 3 in order to make the average bettor think that Miami is rightly the favorite and discourage bettors to bet the ugly, seemingly useless 1.5 number on Indiana. Do NOT bet Miami -1.5 in game 3.


Miami down in terms of homecourt Advantage, back n forth battle. They're the favorite. They gotta win this one, Right?


Wrong. Indiana is the better team and will shit on them in game 3. Not only are they the better team but the Refs are gonna give them the advantage in terms of calling fouls and position calls.


Once again the Indiana ML for Game 3 is gonna be low Plus money, so the Books can cheap out on ML action that wins, just like they did tonight.





Get that money!

[rawzay]

They could of set the line @ INDY -10 and I would still take it. Indy is clearly the better team and Dwade isn't gonna save the Heat this year. Indy in 6

[KushMoney]

Bump for all you lemons.


Keep your mind right.


They know what numbers you like, and what it takes to make you see a number and bet it.. knowing that it's gonna lose.


Don't let the oddsmakers fool you.

[TwoWays]

I like you. You know your stuff. Great picks so far and looking for more in the future.

[El Sol]

Books don't really work this way. The number one goal of a book is to have equal probabilities or outcomes on both sides of the bet, by doing so, the house margin is equal on both sides of the bet. They try to do this every time, every game, every day, every month, every year.

Contrary to popular belief, they really don't care how much money is on either side if they set their lines correctly because in the end, the lofty 4.54% house edge they enjoy makes them all the profit they really need without having to resort to wild schemes and cons. Plus, you are assuming all the books in the world are working together to make something like this happen, thrust me, they don't. Competition among them is just as fierce as any other business, as linesmen are highly prized and sought after.

With that said, Linesmen are not soothsayers, so if you can interpret the same information they have differently and set the line differently. You can find your advantage and negate their edge and actually shift the margin toward your side of the action. So, Is this what you are trying to do?

[JayLA]

Miami won't get any points, huh...............Miami could be down 2-1 soon.............yup, that's certainly possible. opps! we're the public. sportsbooks did NOT shit their pants just now.
they only care how much $ we put up....

[hubbard689]

coming from a guy named "KushMoney" I don't exactly know if I trust your judgment...

[KushMoney]

Well, there you go everybody!



As expected, the Line for this game opened at PK.


Also as expected, this has lured in action on Miami.


and, the line has moved to -1.5.


I have seen this coming.

the -1.5 line is a trap

coming from a guy named "KushMoney" I don't exactly know if I trust your judgment...

You can trust me bro! I have been doing this shit. Analyzing why Books do what they do.


In this case, all of the EARLY Money on Miami for this game will make the books money.

They will leave that +1.5 Pacers line and not many will touch it. FACT. Not many will touch it.


That's sometimes what the books really want. To have the ugliest, seemingly meaningless number out there that nobody wants to play, being the winning bet on the board.

[SpreadSniper]

why wouldn't anyone be on the Pacers @ home when they took em to OT GM1, then won GM2 in Miami

[KushMoney]

why wouldn't anyone be on the Pacers @ home when they took em to OT GM1, then won GM2 in Miami

Because that would mean that they go up 2-1 on Miami... and that can't possibly happen right?! The Heat have LEBRON!

Some people are thinking back n forth series. Heatg1, Pacersg2, Heatg3

or just Really holding onto the idea that the Heat will not be down in this series..

Trippin.

The books set up PK opener odds on Miami knowing that people wouldn't pass it up. Instant profit.

Enough money has come in on Miami side to move it to -1, then to -1.5. PROFIT for the Books. because None of that action is going to pay. Even more profit.


Now they only gotta pay those who take the ugly shitty number of +1.5 and low plus money.. +100 +105 +110ish .. you know, as little as possible is what the books will pay for being on the winning side. That's how they profit.

because Basically, your selling a point and a half for 10 cents 20 cents at most. "What the hell?" "Might as well take the Moneyline for the Heat!"


That's exactly what they want you to think.


Goodluck everyone!

[DrAwInGdEaD]

Good ishhh kush!

[Mr Handicapable]

Totally agree

Big stat here

Indy 46 free throws NY 18 in game 6 and thats with Tyson Chandler in the middle

Indy will have a 10+ ft advantage even with LeBron

Prob won't bet Indy game 4 but think they get this one on home court and momentum

[J_On_A_Roll]

Because that would mean that they go up 2-1 on Miami... and that can't possibly happen right?! The Heat have LEBRON!

Some people are thinking back n forth series. Heatg1, Pacersg2, Heatg3

or just Really holding onto the idea that the Heat will not be down in this series..

Trippin.

The books set up PK opener odds on Miami knowing that people wouldn't pass it up. Instant profit.

Enough money has come in on Miami side to move it to -1, then to -1.5. PROFIT for the Books. because None of that action is going to pay. Even more profit.


Now they only gotta pay those who take the ugly shitty number of +1.5 and low plus money.. +100 +105 +110ish .. you know, as little as possible is what the books will pay for being on the winning side. That's how they profit.

because Basically, your selling a point and a half for 10 cents 20 cents at most. "What the hell?" "Might as well take the Moneyline for the Heat!"


That's exactly what they want you to think.


Goodluck everyone!

LMAO. Dude you are a freak of nature on the betting tip. IM pounding it!!!

[J_On_A_Roll]

Makes all the sense in the world. But how high do you think the line is gonna get?

[Hadley13]

I like Heat! Had Indiana ATS the first two and won both.. The difference between Indiana and Miami, is they guy by the name of Lebron.. Maybe you've heard of him?

[GoBlue77]

one of the best posts i've seen in awhile, very spot on. heat will get lots of action in game 3 with that number

[J_On_A_Roll]

Pacers are also 6-0 ATS at home this playoffs if that means anything.

[El Sol]

Im startled that some of you actually believe this non-sense. If there any such conspiracy here , it would be that the books are the ones spreading this garbage to divert people away from one and only way to make money off of gambling.

At the very least, they are probably ecstatic that this stuff is being propagated in a gambling forum such as SBR in a world where all the information you could ever want about gambling is at your finger tips. I can assure 100%, that the few people that actually make money Betting on Sports laugh at this rubbish, and every single person that believes this kind of stuff, Loses. You can not make money this way, Period.

But as I always say in these situations. The books don't pay me, Losing Gamblers do, so I guess I should be thankful to you all.

[J_On_A_Roll]

I havent pulled the trigger yet but the dude is making sense. I always go with MY choice in the end. Im going with heat tonight because i see most people are leaning Indy. In fact indy has more momentum than the heat if you ask me. Close game 1 and won game 2. So they are 6-0 at home this season and gonna give miami a tough battle right? Not!! The heat will only win if the sharp shooters come out tonight and you can certainly bet that they will. All of their bench has deep playoff experience and can shoot the ball out this world. Look for Ray ray and shane tonight. Maybe Rashard lewis if they need him. THE LONG GUNS ARE COMING OUT TONIGHT AND LBJ AND DWADE are loading the bullets to those cannons tonight!!! HAHAHAHAHA! Pound IT!!!!!!!!!

[J_On_A_Roll]

TEAM ORIENTATED GAME tonight. The heat will have more bench and assist points tonight. Check the stats after the game.

[KushMoney]

Im startled that some of you actually believe this non-sense. If there any such conspiracy here , it would be that the books are the ones spreading this garbage to divert people away from one and only way to make money off of gambling.

At the very least, they are probably ecstatic that this stuff is being propagated in a gambling forum such as SBR in a world where all the information you could ever want about gambling is at your finger tips. I can assure 100%, that the few people that actually make money Betting on Sports laugh at this rubbish, and every single person that believes this kind of stuff, Loses. You can not make money this way, Period.

But as I always say in these situations. The books don't pay me, Losing Gamblers do, so I guess I should be thankful to you all.

What are you talking about?

No conspiracy here.

Pacers +2 is the play

Pacers ML

Hell, Pacers -1.5 if you can get it.

Just enjoy and watch the Refs do their job, lol.

[bubblebuttluv]

The other side of the argument is that the Heat go off tonight and you get them at the best price ALL YEAR.

[KushMoney]

The other side of the argument is that the Heat go off tonight and you get them at the best price ALL YEAR.

On the other side of that argument you could just wait for the game to start and get Miami + plus money

Great Value There.



Otherwise, stick to the script.

[rake922]

[Mr Handicapable]

I'm going tonite...Indy 98-93

Indy big free throw advantage tonite...George/Hibbert/West there all night. I'd send in a Pacer goon and turn a couple of Wade's teeth into chicklets...but thats just me.

[MP123]

It's not a conspiracy, it's a business. The referees gotta get paid somehow! NUFF SAID!!!!

[randygershom]

USA. WNBA .............. Los Angeles Sparks ----- Seattle Storm first quarter asian handicap Los Angeles Sparks - 4:50 .. @ 1.81 ..????guyz what do you think??

[meader99]

Because that would mean that they go up 2-1 on Miami... and that can't possibly happen right?! The Heat have LEBRON!

Some people are thinking back n forth series. Heatg1, Pacersg2, Heatg3

or just Really holding onto the idea that the Heat will not be down in this series..

Trippin.

The books set up PK opener odds on Miami knowing that people wouldn't pass it up. Instant profit.

Enough money has come in on Miami side to move it to -1, then to -1.5. PROFIT for the Books. because None of that action is going to pay. Even more profit.


Now they only gotta pay those who take the ugly shitty number of +1.5 and low plus money.. +100 +105 +110ish .. you know, as little as possible is what the books will pay for being on the winning side. That's how they profit.

because Basically, your selling a point and a half for 10 cents 20 cents at most. "What the hell?" "Might as well take the Moneyline for the Heat!"


That's exactly what they want you to think.


Goodluck everyone!

Isn't that exactly what happened last year?

[Hangoverblack]

I don't think the play is the side. It's the under for the free money. Good luck though

[JR007]

let's see where it is before gametime

[YungCiroq]

This will be the easiest money won this month... Heat -2

Lol for you to believe the Pacers are a better team is utterly ridiculous, the only advantage the Pacers
have is 2 big men down low(Hibbert,West). Heat are two bad passes from being up 2-0, Ray Allen wont miss those 3's
and free-throws. LeBron is going to put this team on his back and carry them to a 6+ game win tonight.

[NittanyLionsFan]

Heat will sweep this series.

[hotelis]

IND +2 and total 182.0 20mins before tip-off. im on +1.5 and u181.5. if that means public is pounding the heat and the over, im at ease.

[PerfectGrape]

Why does everyone say one side will dominate or Indiana will shit on heat? People on SBR never say "it will be a close game." Is it that hard to admit that maybe a playoff game on a hugely bet market might have a pretty accurate line? In my opinion the most value was in select regular season games, not sharp playoff lines. With that being said, Heat -1.5 was a +ev play.

[Fed_42420]

Because that would mean that they go up 2-1 on Miami... and that can't possibly happen right?! The Heat have LEBRON!

Is this your first year watching basketball?? not only were they down 2-1 last year to this same team, but also down 3-2 to boston