EP36's Three Point/Playoff Prop Shop

[EaglesPhan36]

Links to the other threads I used during the season when the 3 pt. props disappeared and then gloriously returned to Betonline. If you see them somewhere else for the postseason, give a brutha a shout where at. Might play some random player props - but the threes were the bread & butter, gravy train of the season. The units won is smaller

Three Pt. Props (Regular Season): 15-5-1

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1984166-ep36s-prop-palooza.html

http://forum.sbrforum.com/nba-basketball-betting/1529369-ep36s-prop-shop-p27.html

4.20.12: Game #1 - Knicks-Celtics Total Three Pt. Shots Made Over 16.5 [-125]
Knicks remain the top three point making club in the NBA, averaging almost 11 makes per game on 29 attempts. Boston only averages about six makes per game, but given NY's proclivity for making threes - if they hit their average in this series, I think most games this will have a shot to go over. In the four regular season meetings, that held true with this number beaten the two times the Celtics hit their average or better. Boston has had issues on the road more so defending the three also, so the Knicks should have the opportunity to hit double digits if they take anywhere near their average number of threes per game.

[Pick'nParlays]

EP,

I know Denver is a good perimeter defending team. Curry, in Denver, went 2/2 in one game and 6/9 in another.

I'm looking at this 5dimes prop and want your thoughts:

Steph Curry over 3.5 3 pointers made -115

[Pick'nParlays]

Also curious what book you are using

[EaglesPhan36]

I'd be more apt to try the over. The 2/2 game it looks like he was saddled with fouls and his minutes were lower than usual. The other game he got his minutes and got his FGAs. Game in G-State where he came up short with three makes, looks like fouls were an issue too. I kinda like David Lee to have a good series, might be looking at him for some props - Denver struggled to contain him. May look at Lawson or Chandler for Denver ... gotta do some homework on 'em.

Sorry it's kinda buried in the run-on paragraph to start this thread ... Betonline for these props unless otherwise noted.

[EaglesPhan36]

Oy vay. This 3 prop was looking great, but it's been a long range brick show in the 4th. Only needed three makes and half way through, still need three.

[EaglesPhan36]

4.20.13: Game #1 - Golden State F David Lee Total Pts Over 18.5 [-110]
Even with a fully healthy cast of players, Denver had major problems stopping Lee this season. He put up 23, 31, 21 & 18 against the Nuggets. With Faried potentially out for this first game, that could mean a little less energy expended for Lee which could yield some more dividends on offense. I think if the game is competitive and Lee works anywhere from 35-40 minutes, he should have a great shot to blow by this number.

[EaglesPhan36]

I can't believe this three prop is going to miss barring some OT ... I don't know what the 0-for is from long range in this quarter, but it's pathetic.

[EaglesPhan36]

0 for 11.

[EaglesPhan36]

Unbelievable. 0-for-the quarter and plenty of shots taken. Will keep riding this one this series though as I think with this number, it's going to hit more than it misses. Magic # was spot on again - Knicks one under their double digit average and the prop misses.

[EaglesPhan36]

Yeesh. Terrible shooting night for Lee. It was points or rebounds and rebounds was the easy over. Fudge.

[EaglesPhan36]

One more fade for your pleasure.

Game #1 - Nets-Bulls Largest Lead Over 14 [+120] @ 5dimes
This Bulls team struggled on the road as far as falling behind by double digits, even against some of the cellar dwellers. Still with missing pieces without Rose and Noah either out or hobbled. 1st playoff game for the Nets should be a raucous crowd. If Brooklyn shoots well to start, I think they could take advantage of a Bulls team that does not shoot the ball well at times and run out a lead. Conversely, if the Nets feel any pressure - the Bulls could catch them cold early.

[EaglesPhan36]

And an injury to boot for Lee. Jinxy.

[EaglesPhan36]

penetrate yeah. +120 hits. That'll take some of the shit taste out of the day.

[EaglesPhan36]

Overall: 1-2 [-1.15]
3 pt Prop: 0-1 [-1.25]

Game #1: Pacers-Hawks Total Three Point Shots Made Over 14.5 [+105]
The Hawks quietly with the acquisition of Korver became a more prevalent three point shooting club. ATL averaged 8.6 makes on 23.2 attempts during the regular season. Indiana was around the league average with seven makes per game on 20 attempts. All three regular season meetings featured at least 15 makes and in the range of 44 attempts or better. I think the magic # is about 45 FGAs from three for this to go legit. At plus money though, definitely like it.

[Pick'nParlays]

Damn EP,

Wish I could follow you on the total 3 props but sadly my book and bankroll are with 5dimes.

Thoughts or props on LAL/SAS

[EaglesPhan36]

Well so far, you're better off. Neither team taking many threes. Not even going to be close to their normal number of attempts.

[EaglesPhan36]

Boy these lines are making the books look smart. 14 threes made. If they had shot anywhere near the pace they set in the 4th Q for the game, would have had a better shot.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game #1: Heat-Bucks Total Three Point Shots Made Over 15.5 [-115]
Another one where I'll pay to be wrong. Bucks provide great versatility in their starting lineup for threes. Ellis & Jennings of course can both make 'em any day, but Ilyasova is a great pop out at the 4-spot. Off the bench, Redick & Dunleavy bring the ability to rack up multiple threes as well. For Miami, the 3 ball isn't always something they focus on, but they average close to nine threes made per game and have a multitude of weapons. Having Ray Allen off the bench should be a big luxury and helpful to racking up threes against the 2nd unit of opposing teams. Miller, Chalmers, Lebron, Battier & even Bosh are threats from deep.

[Frisco]

I like this one but can't play it. Also like

Ilyasova over 19.5 points + rebs -105

Bron under 1.5 3's -130

Chalmers points + rebs + assists over 14.5 -125

[EaglesPhan36]

F-ing brick show. Whole slew of open looks and 6/26 in the 1st half. I'll take my chances on getting 16 threes if they're going to take 50 combined.

[EaglesPhan36]

Game #1: Houston G James Harden Total FTs Made Over 9 [+115]

[EaglesPhan36]

Shooting in this game is woeful. 14/49 from three. You get 50 three point attempts, you need to be able to make at least 17-18. Piss poor. So many open looks that did not drop.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well these have been awful. I think I am going to stick to the 3 props only for now. Gives me a chance to focus & try to turn this shit around.

[EaglesPhan36]

Playoffs - 3 pt Prop: 0-3 [-3.40]

Game #2: Heat-Bucks Total Three Point Shots Made Over 15 [-135]
So we dropped from 15.5 to 15 after Game 1's 14 total threes on 49 shots attempted. I said it then and I will say it again, I will lose money this whole series if these two teams take 45-50 threes and cannot make 15-16. In the last two meetings, 109 threes were taken. The Bucks by themselves have averaged 30 attempts per game over their last five. I watched quite a bit of Game 1 and we're not looking at a big number of the misses being contested threes, they were shots that were open and should get knocked down. As such, I take my chances here and go for a deficit reducer for 1.5 units.

[SlowNsteady]

I wish 5dimes had this prop. GL

[EaglesPhan36]

Fukk me. Tonight not shooting threes. Burn baby burn.

[EaglesPhan36]

Should have just tried the Knicks game again. FML. FTNBA.

[EaglesPhan36]

Expecting to get pimp slapped, but if this loses then so ends my postseason.

Game #2: Warriors More Three Point Shots Made -290

[EaglesPhan36]

[Playoffs] 3 pt Props:1-4 [-3.90]

High juice paid off with Golden State nailing more threes, maybe that will get me going.

[Pick'nParlays]

stick with it EP. Funny more books won't take action on this type of prop as it seems to be hitting at a slower rate thus far in comparison with last year.

Also, don't forget you are GREAT at second half reads. Don't stray away from your bread and butter....

[EaglesPhan36]

Game 2: Thunder-Rockets Total Three Point Shots Made Over 18.5 [+110]
A must roll at plus money for me. The two teams combined for 18 makes on 60 attempts in Game 1. Houston was atrocious at 8/36, but they kept chucking them up and that's what I like to see. I don't expect that to change as the 3 is a major weapon for them. It either falls or it doesn't, but they keep going. OKC made 10/24 which should bode well for them continuing to put them up as well with Houston's perimeter D showing more leaks.

[EaglesPhan36]

stick with it EP. Funny more books won't take action on this type of prop as it seems to be hitting at a slower rate thus far in comparison with last year.

Also, don't forget you are GREAT at second half reads. Don't stray away from your bread and butter....

I'll tweet some 2nd half stuff. I have quietly been playing 2nd half team totals in the NBA to finish the season. I feel pretty good about those. Twitter handle for anyone who cares is same as my SBR handle. I don't want to clutter too much up on here with those plays + those have to be made quiick - tailor made for Twitter.

[Pick'nParlays]

I'm already following you..

Would love it if you started posting those second half plays. Anywhere, even twitter.

[Pick'nParlays]

Waiting for D Howard free throw prop to come out tonight.

He should have at least 10-12 attempts this game if not more. I'm expecting somewhere around 50% give or take a shot. Hoping to catch 5.5 for the over.

[EaglesPhan36]

I'll try to remember to get those 2nd half ones up. Part of the problem was my phone has been in the shitter for the better part of two weeks. Was easier to tweet with it before, now having to do on the computer - but supposed to get my replacement phone here tonight, so hopefully that will help!