I think that memphis is going to win this game by 40 points if Drexel isn't careful....
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jacked up ML on the LAL/MEM game: LAL -12 (-950), MEM +12 (+625)Comment -
Like wangichu said, the Grizzlies, for some odd reason, turn themselves into playoff contenders when they play against the Lakers. Yes, the Lakers have lost two in a row and are up against the Grizzlies in what will be their third straight road game. The Lakers fly out to play New Orleans tomorrow, which will be their fourth game in five days. They've been sucking turd as of late going 0-9 ATS in their past nine games, 7 of which have been double digit spreads.
With the way the Grizzlies play the Lakers, combined with how sucky the Lakers are playing, I'll gladly take the points on this one. The line is currently Memphis +12, and I'll wait this one out and make place my wager before gametime when I can get a few more free points.
I'm on the Rockets -5.5, banking on them to whoop the Nets. Yao will have his way with them.
As for the Raptors +2.5, they are the most disappointing team this season. No NBA team should lose to the OKC Thunder. Toronto is 6-14 SU in their past 20 games, 5-15 ATS, and 2-7 ATS in their past 9 road games. The Raptors are playing so terrible. They've got to be getting frustrated with themselves. I don't think they'll manage to win a single game of their six-game road trip.
On the other hand, the Clippers are 3-1 ATS in their past four games as favourites, which were all road games. Both teams are struggling so much right now. I'd either take the Clippers -2, or stay away from this one.Comment -
Does anybody else like the clips at -2.5??
Randolph and Bosh should cancel each other out...Camby will dominate the paint over a hurt and old O'Neal...Just hope that the Clips bench, or lack there of, doesn't blow it. Both teams are traveling out west..plus Clips will be pissed after getting curb stomped by MIL!
Prediction....LAC 97 TOR 90Comment -
Isn't randolph hurt? And his shooting last night was horrendous at bestComment -
Oops. Don't mind me hahaComment -
"Randolph was bothered by a sore back in the blowout loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, but the club does not feel it is serious and that he should be in full health Monday night against Toronto, the Los Angeles Times reports."
He was pretty horrible against the Bucks. Playing 25 minutes, he managed 4 pts on 2-11 FG, and 6 rebounds.Comment -
@CK:
I just read your reply from this morning and I’m not in any way trying to call you out so don’t take offense to my comments here.
I know you are thorough when you analyze your games. I was merely providing information that I felt was necessary for this game and noticed what you added your comment after I already posted mine. Anyway, your original posted comment, “San Antoni always lights the Kings up for 100 points or more,” was misleading to be honest. Of course I’m not insinuating that you were trying to mislead anyone intentionally, but basically saying it could be misleading when interpreted by another individual. First, nowhere in your post does it mention you are only talking about games played in San Antonio. Second, it you did not mention you were referring to the previous 5 games played in San Antonio which actually covers 4 seasons worth of games. Your comment lead me to believe you were talking about all the games between the Spurs and the Kings over the past couple years regardless where they were played – home or away. Me personally had an idea that you were talking about home games of course, but not sure how far you were going back historically. Others who read this and attempt to do their own research might have been confused and been completely lost. Therefore, I thought it would be best to bring this issue to the forefront. After all, we encourage people to research on their own and bring information to the table, right? It’s totally cool though, I understand where you’re coming from and it was just a misunderstanding. No biggie!
Okay, moving on… so after you clarified what you meant I see you are going back to the 2005-2006 season. Yes, you’re correct with those scores, but wouldn’t you agree that dynamics, skill level, and the chemistry changes over a 4 year period? It depends what I’m looking for and there are times I dig further into previous years, but I didn’t feel it would be beneficial to go back that far back for this particular stat. I agree that the Spurs score more points at home than they do on the road because facts can’t be disputed, however, we can’t ignore the other side of the equation either. If we look at only the last 5 home games for the Spurs versus the Kings we see that the Spurs won the games by an average of 10 points. While the Spurs average 103 points against the Kings at home, the other side of the equation shows that the Kings are averaging 93 points against the Spurs in San Antonio. To put it in perspective, the last 5 home games were won with by the following margins…13pts, 16pts, 9pts, 2pts, and 11pts. The spread for today’s game is 13 points so this is one reason I mentioned to buy points if I was pulling the trigger on the Kings since +13 is out of my comfort zone.
Obviously we don’t determine the final score of the game and the game could turn out completely opposite from what we predict regardless how much work we put into it. The game could be a blowout, the Kings could win a lucky one, or they could cover – no one really knows for sure. However, I strongly believe that these are healthy discussions that assist people when they are ready to pull the trigger. It’s all about being informed and perhaps our discussion has helped someone in their decision making process for this game.
Lastly, I know I was focused on the game spread and you were focused on the team total. Therefore, the Spurs’ team total like you mentioned would be a wager to seriously consider and at that point we would not need to worry about the other side of the equation.
Btw, I didn’t mean to beat this to death, but it was too late by the time I finished my thought, lol.Comment -
ck
den 9-1 su at home, so -1, -2 or pk or even pts are great
btw I have to agree with you, den will get it done anywy
@all just have to agree with that memphis pick, its the lakers and who doesnt want to give his A game and that at home against such an superior team. Its like in college when we played the no1 team in the state at home, even if we were bad, we always wanted to play them tough and thats what mem will do
a few nice trends
Memphis is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 6 games when playing LA Lakers
Memphis is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games when playing at home against LA Lakers
Memphis is 6-3 SU in their last 9 games when playing at home against LA LakersComment -
CK...
I got on Houston last night buying it down to -3....today its up to -6 and could move more before game time...
Question for you is...When do you start thinking about trying for a middle opportunity when a line moves like this? Or do you ever try for a middle? Is there a formula that you like to figure out whether a middle makes good sense?
Thanks in advance!
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CK,
Almost exactly like you predicted - it is Denver -1.5 and Houston -5.5 now. I will follow your advice and thanks a lot regardless of win or lose.
Could you tell me which site to check reliable information on money percentage and line movement?
Early Christmas greeting to you and family and everyone on this wonderful thread - Merry Christmas & Best Wishes!Comment -
Smacksmiter,
Of course, play New jersey moneyline on a seperate book for a tenth of what you plan to play on Houton.
Spoon,
It's cool. Actually you are correct, I was researching my team total and not the spread, although I give the Spurs the nod, and i have them winning by 17 or so, but taking those kinds of points is always tempting, I wish you much luck on that one. I always go back 5 games or more on any situation in my research. usually when teams go into texas, they have to do the triangle, which means that they will have to play all three teams. No team, not even Boston or the Magic or Cleveland or the Old School Running Rebels can make that trip and go unscathed. Every team will lose ats in one of those games because you have three playoff teams in those cities. Sacramento is not on eof those types of teams that can survive a Texas Triangle. In their cas, the game with Dallas was substituted with the Hornets, as the Mavs are out of town on business. The Kings are in a bad situation to get the cover.
djpremier36,
The Clips have played a whole lot of games for team that is not that deep to begin with. Toronto is much fresher, is coming off a loss against the lowly Thunder, and they are perfect to get the cover in this situation because they can't get any lower than they already are. Management for the Raptors need to take a long look in the mirror and figure out why they didn't get Jamal Tinsley in the deal, a good not great point guard that is doing the same thing that Marbury is doing without the fanfare.
before you spend your money, let me inform you as to what you are performing with clarity. The Clippers are playingtheir 5th gae in 7 days, 4 of those games road games and two of those situations back to back games. They have had one day of rest to overcome that brutal schedule and are in their first game back home inthe Pacific Time Zone after playing all of those games in the Mountain Time Zone. If you still feel comfortable playing the Clips after that, then God Bless You.Comment -
what does styles think about the sac game?Comment -
NFL football,
Bears-3 first half
They will avenge the 37-3 loss to the Packers earlier this year homies[/quote]
ck? -3 bears first half? the game spread is only -4......i have first half at -1.5.........did you mean for the game?Comment -
Those wo had the opportunity to get Denver as home dog you are golden. Those who missed the party, don't fret. They are-2 now and I am sure that everyone in the freeworld know that they will be playing without Carmelo by now, yet they are back to being favored by 2. Those who had them -3.5, are now okay, as it would take a 4 point win for even the -2 players to get paid just like you. Those who got in on the party right now, i would encourage you to buy a half point and play them at -1.5, which is below the key number of 2 homies.Comment -
Garso,
Good thing you mentioned it. I forgot to list her play. Styles liks the 1st half under in Sacramento/San Antonio, with the reasoning being that if they were going to score 100, the line would have been higher than 100. She has quietly been on fire this season.
Style's play
Sacramento/San Antonio under 99 1st half.Comment -
@Zack: Could you take out the above quote so we can shorten up the board, thanks man!
@CK: Cool bro.
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I will go back and edit my front page to include her play. Sorry about that ladies and gentlemenComment -
zackattack,
Please do us a favor and pull my quote from your last post. It's making the thread too long. And yes, i am taking the Bears 1st half-3 +100 on Greek.com. If you have them -1.5, you have a better line than I do.Comment -
No problem. I just love her picks b/c i've been tailing her for a while and like you said, she's on fire. I love the houston pick also btw, got them at 3.5 (bought from 4) and feeling good about it now that the line jumped to 5.5... thank for all the work u put into this and lets cash in tonight!
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I dont care who you are 12.5 is a lot to lay on the road in the nba. cavs who are one of the best teams played vs. thunder who is prolly the worst team, and won by 11 i think? and memphis is much better than the thunder.Comment -
CK, Love your work and dedication to the board and my wallet as always. Keep up the the good work and have a great Holiday season.
Spoon, I also appreciate hearing your side of the coin as well. Thanks for not being afraid of going against the "popular" opinion and voicing your insite as well. This only makes what we all love to do more profitable! The best to yours during this great time of yearComment -
Should I even bother with Houston at 5.5 then?
Ok...changed my mind...I like Orlando better. I think I'll decide between them and Hou.
This will give me for my NBA plays.
Hou and/or Orl
Mem
DenComment -
add: Montana State +9.5
Bought hook this morning, but the spread has moved around since I placed this wager this morning.
FYI, the Magic line is starting to move in my favor. We'll see...Comment -
You are on fire CK. Keep it up.
As for me, treated myself to a very expensive antique gold pocket watch with heavy gold chain last weekend. Making good $$$ in college and pro hoops but for some crazy and strange reason my last few plays i posted in your thread didn't do very well. Had two strong plays this afternoon and was very tempted to post them for our gang but decided not to in order not to jinx it, and what you know, Wright St. destroyed Murray St by 16 and at HT Oral Roberts beating on So. Florida by 16. Played Raiders and Eagles in 2 teamer. Tell me what to do. Maybe to much pressure when it comes to make everybody happy?
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Can anyone tell me here the money is at the LAL/MEM game??
thxComment -
The bookies are trying to pull a quick one here. The line keeps shifting with the denver game. So Melo is out, line goes down to +1 denver as dogs, and then shifts back up to -2.5? ShadyyyyyComment -
pronk no worries brother jsut keep hacking away it will all work out
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rolling with the rockets to get a road victory tonight over the nets who arent to good at home and have no answer for yao, battier will have a hand in devin harris face everytime he tries to take a shot and the rebounding afvantage and points advantage home/away and over ast 5 are in favor of the rockets
Taking the magic at home to dominate the warriors they have been good to me at home if it isnt broke dont fix it D howard is simply to dominate for this team and the threes will be raining tonight in orlando
Going with wang on the memphis game they play strong at home especially agains teh lakers who have been underachieving as of late and styles pick spurs/kings udner first half lets cash these tickets tonight son!
taking the raptors as well and bears first half compliments of CK who has been money as of late you are truely the man brother i owe you some JD my friend
oh and also playing my nuggies at home gotta love a team called the nuggetsComment -
Its funny how things work it....you can be on fire with non-posting picks, but when start posting, thats when that not-so-hot streak comes.You are on fire CK. Keep it up.
As for me, treated myself to a very expensive antique gold pocket watch with heavy gold chain last weekend. Making good $$$ in college and pro hoops but for some crazy and strange reason my last few plays i posted in your thread didn't do very well. Had two strong plays this afternoon and was very tempted to post them for our gang but decided not to in order not to jinx it, and what you know, Wright St. destroyed Murray St by 16 and at HT Oral Roberts beating on So. Florida by 16. Played Raiders and Eagles in 2 teamer. Tell me what to do. Maybe to much pressure when it comes to make everybody happy?Comment -
Alright guys and girls, these are my final plays of the evening. If I add halftime plays they will be posted as well.
Good luck to everyone and let’s smash the books tonight.
Final Plays…
Portland +4 (Bought full point)
Houston -3 (Bought Hook)
Raptors +3
Sacramento +15 (not much value, but there will be if I win)
Magic/GSW Over 56 1Q
Georgia Tech +8
Montana State +9.5 (Bought Hook)
Chicago Bears -3
*No game play on the Magic for me tonight.Comment -
final card tonight:
HOU -3.5
TOR +3.5
POR/DEN UNDER 199
MEM +12
BEARS -3 1st Half
3 ck bets and two of my own!
good luck allComment -
See the Rockets are now -5.5 at some places. I am leary, normally would like Houston, but no playing as I know Rafer Alston will be sitting again tonight. Although AB has enough quickness to keep up with Harris, I do see Carter and Harris being able to do some things tonight. I also see Barry coming back tonight, which means more rotation for a team thats been hit by injuries all season. GOing to pass on this one.
Going to play San Jose St -3.5 in college hoops. Buying down as this line has climbed. Good Luck to all, and thanks for your plays CK and Styles..Comment -
[quote=cocknocker;1327974]Smacksmiter,
Of course, play New jersey moneyline on a seperate book for a tenth of what you plan to play on Houton.
Thanks CK , However, I was looking more for advice on a pure middle opportunity, not a money line hedge type play...Is there any particular rule of thumb or guideline you have on that type of play?
For example, I have Houston at -3 / -130 and the line is now Houston -6.5 / -110... If I buy it the Nets to +7 / -120 and have a pure 3 point middle opportunity, is that mathmatically a good play? I win on the 4, 5 and 6 and push on the 3 and 7.
Appreciate your help!
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I was bored and bet College Bball games tonight.
NBA
Orlando -12
Houston -4
NFL
Chicago -4
College
Indiana -1
Utah St. -4
USC -7Comment
