Leans for Monday 12/22/08

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  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    Leans for Monday 12/22/08
    Oh yes there are a couple of good games on this evening. No wasting time on this one, time to get down to brass taxes. The Rcokets OWN New Jersey in games played in Soprano country. The Rockets are 5-0 straight up and ats, winning by an average of 12.5. With a line of -3.5 for this game, I am pouinding this one early to get it out of the way, as I feel that there isn't any reason to buy any points for this one. I am taking it straight.

    Houston-3.5

    The Clippers were blown out in Milwaukee in their last game by I don't know how many points. And that happened because they were tired from back to back overtime games. One day of rest and travel has done nothing to aide them with rest. I absolutely hate the Raptors this year, but this is a winnable game for them playing the Clips after their first game home after that long road trip. The Raptors are in a funk losing hella games in a row. But they are 2-0 straight up in their last two games against the Clips in Tinseltown. What the hell, I'm gonna take the Raptors for the second time this year. I think that this is a difficult situtation for the Clips as they have run out of gas.

    Raptors+3.5 (buying a point to get over te key number)


    There is a home and home going on between the Nuggets and the Trailblazers. Denver for their part is 4-1 straight up against the Trailblazers winnin by an average of 8 points in their wins. the Blazers have been hot lately winning the Blazer Week games, but Denver needs this game more after 3 straight up losses. This is rule number 1. Always take an over .500 team that has lost three games straight. If Denver wins and cvers in this game, we will take Portland in the next game on Tuesday, as Denver will be spent from a whole lot of games. 4 games in 4 days. I don't see them summoning up enough energy to get the win in Portland on Tuesday. If they win one of these games in the home and home series, it has to be the one at home with the carry over effect working in their favor. Whoever looses this first game is to be taken in the next game on Tuesday, homies! I say it's Portland Denver has lost their last three games by an average of 12 points. I'm taking em' while their stock is low! Besides, you should always fade teams that win one of those national television games....This line will go down to 3 or 2.5 because I fully expect the public to be on the Blazers big time. I think that I can get a chance to play it at Denver-2 if I wait it out by buying a pont or a hook.

    Denver -2 (After public donations drive the line down to 3)

    I also kind of like San Antonio team total to go over 104.5. The more that I think of it, it's an intelligent play. Look out for me to nab this one up tomorrow when it appears on the big board

    College basketball, both small plays

    Utah State-3.5
    NC State+2.5


    NFL football,

    Bears-3 first half

    They will avenge the 37-3 loss to the Packers earlier this year homies


    I have edited this post to include Style's play at Garso's request:

    Sacramento/San Antonio under 99 1st half
  • SamsNCharge99
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-22-08
    • 41242

    #2
    tough games tomorrow, I was looking as well and didn't have any big feelings. I did like Houston and Denver, idk, we'll see. Good Luck
    Comment
    • AC1318
      SBR Hall of Famer
      • 10-09-06
      • 6712

      #3
      lakers
      raptors

      there everyone goes two winners for monday
      Comment
      • shoebox
        Restricted User
        • 11-26-08
        • 5710

        #4
        Yo CK WHAT recession????
        Comment
        • indeed
          SBR High Roller
          • 12-17-08
          • 224

          #5
          Zach Randolph may be out for the Clippers with back issues ..
          Comment
          • cocknocker
            Restricted User
            • 11-06-08
            • 8001

            #6
            What recession?
            Comment
            • shoebox
              Restricted User
              • 11-26-08
              • 5710

              #7
              The economy homie dont seem to be hurtin us none!!! lol!!!
              Comment
              • Spoon
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 11-21-08
                • 592

                #8
                The only thing I want to add for now is... I'm glad you're not breaking rule #1.
                Comment
                • cocknocker
                  Restricted User
                  • 11-06-08
                  • 8001

                  #9
                  I already played the Rockets-3.5, and the Raptors+3.5, because i full y believe that i will lose points on those if I wait until tomorrow looking at line movement. i alsoplayed my college games as well. NC State+2.5, and Utah State-3.5. As promised, I played both of them small.

                  I am gonna smoke and wait on the Denver line to go down some before I play that one.
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #10
                    Spoon,

                    relax I am only putting $30.00 on the Warrior moneyline.
                    Comment
                    • Spoon
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 11-21-08
                      • 592

                      #11
                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                      Spoon,

                      relax I am only putting $30.00 on the Warrior moneyline.
                      Small play ML are always wise plays so I can't knock you for that at all.

                      I have a feeling that line will move a lot so I'll be watching it so I can decide which direction to lean - play or no play.

                      Houston -3 is my favorite play of the day, but I feel more comfortable buying the hook here even though I probably won't need it.
                      Comment
                      • Spoon
                        SBR Wise Guy
                        • 11-21-08
                        • 592

                        #12
                        add: Georgia Tech +8 will be the only college play for me tomorrow. Check it out fellas!
                        Comment
                        • shoebox
                          Restricted User
                          • 11-26-08
                          • 5710

                          #13
                          Spoon,
                          So far im liking San Francisco. This team is not bad at all, and should keep this one close.
                          NBA other than CKs picks look like a no play for me. The only other one might be the spurs, but thats a lot of points to give up. Im gonna look into these some more before I make my decision.
                          Comment
                          • CTS5
                            SBR High Roller
                            • 12-02-08
                            • 223

                            #14
                            CK, Why would the line go down for denver. If anything i see that the public is on denver, and the line will go up.
                            Comment
                            • Spoon
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 11-21-08
                              • 592

                              #15
                              I’m not pulling the trigger on this game yet, but Sacramento is a very interesting team ATS. For starters, when they don’t cover it’s usually spreads +12.5 and under. These games are usually when Sacramento gets blown out in great fashion – backyard woodshed beat downs, in other words. For example, when they were dogs by +12.5 or less they have lost their games by margins of 32, 24, 33, and 23 to mention a few. Currently they are 50% ATS (14-14), but what’s interesting is that every game they are a +13 or more dog they have always covered ATS - always. These covers were against some quality teams such as Houston, Lakers 2x, and New Orleans 2x. Well, the Lakers don’t count these days, eh. Therefore, if anything, I will buy a full point and play with Sacramento +14 or +15, but under no circumstances play with the Spurs. That’s if I touch this game at all tomorrow.

                              EDIT: Correction, my bad... San Antonio beat Sac last time out...I was looking at the wrong stat sheet.
                              Comment
                              • ryanXL977
                                SBR Posting Legend
                                • 02-24-08
                                • 20615

                                #16
                                nets ml for me
                                memphis+10
                                Comment
                                • cocknocker
                                  Restricted User
                                  • 11-06-08
                                  • 8001

                                  #17
                                  Shoe,

                                  You may have one there. Sacramento can't keep covering with the team that they have left after all of those injuries. And so too San Antonio can't keep losing ats much longer. All things considered, this one reeks of blowout. The Kings have lost by an average fo 17.5 points per game in their last 3 games while surrendering 105 points per game. I have capped out the San Antonio team total to be 104.5. I think that their team total woud be a lucrative option. They scored 107 in thier last game. With a little rest for this game, i think that they will call their own shot.

                                  It's obvious that with this being Sacramento's 4th road game in 7 days. This is a basic Texas Triangle trip made worse because of a game in New Orleans instead of the game with Dallas. The Kings are running out of gas and time, and there is a long road ahead. Sa Antonio wins this one by 20. But watch in amazement as the public lines up with the Kings because of the Spurs stock being low right now, homes.
                                  Comment
                                  • Spoon
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-21-08
                                    • 592

                                    #18
                                    @Shoe:

                                    Tell me about it...I played Boise two Saturday's ago and San Fran actually won the game outright. I was steamed, but that was also the Saturday I lost it in college basketball. I'll take a peek though.
                                    Comment
                                    • cocknocker
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-06-08
                                      • 8001

                                      #19
                                      With Denver's stock being low, the line maker will play games with this line, and make the number smaller even with the money being on Denvers' side. if I don't see the kind of moevment that I want to see on this game, i will wipe it off of my board, and play the San Antonio team total to go over 104.5. I think that i like that one even more anyway. San Antoni always lights the Kings up for 100 points or more.
                                      Comment
                                      • CTS5
                                        SBR High Roller
                                        • 12-02-08
                                        • 223

                                        #20
                                        San Antonio barelyyy scores over 100 points on crappy defense teams like thunder or toronto.
                                        Comment
                                        • CTS5
                                          SBR High Roller
                                          • 12-02-08
                                          • 223

                                          #21
                                          The under 196 in that spurs game looks legit to me
                                          Comment
                                          • cocknocker
                                            Restricted User
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 8001

                                            #22
                                            CTS5,

                                            Then you might want to play the under for their team total and make some money for your beliefs, right? I mean I'm just sayin'?
                                            Comment
                                            • NBA Hero
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 12-05-08
                                              • 1886

                                              #23
                                              ck,

                                              your pick on bucks won by 34pts.
                                              forgot to thank you on that one. rode on your pick.

                                              it seems like denver need to pick up some more players. hilario doesnt have a strong back up coz kenyon has some nagging injuries.
                                              Comment
                                              • spal2811
                                                SBR Sharp
                                                • 12-02-08
                                                • 306

                                                #24
                                                nuggs line down to -3 when should we pounce
                                                Comment
                                                • CTS5
                                                  SBR High Roller
                                                  • 12-02-08
                                                  • 223

                                                  #25
                                                  CK, I wasnt saying your pick is bad, just trying to see why you would choose it as one of your strong plays. I guess I've just lost one too many overs with the spurs garbage shooting percentage.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • Spoon
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 11-21-08
                                                    • 592

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                    SNIP...San Antoni always lights the Kings up for 100 points or more.
                                                    CK, I don't want to take anything away from your write up because you make some valid points that should be taken into consideration before placing a wager on a dog such as the Kings. However, the statement above is not entirely accurate. When I worked on this game I found that San Antonio only put up a 100 or more points 2 times in the last 5 games against the Kings. They put up 101 in the April game last season and 102 in the March game last season. Other than those games, the Spurs were held to under 100 points in two other games against the Kings last season and held under 100 against the Kings this season. So technically, they are 2-3 putting 100 or more points which is an important factor. Just something to think about.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Spoon
                                                      SBR Wise Guy
                                                      • 11-21-08
                                                      • 592

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by CTS5
                                                      CK, I wasnt saying your pick is bad, just trying to see why you would choose it as one of your strong plays. I guess I've just lost one too many overs with the spurs garbage shooting percentage.
                                                      It's not one of his strong plays from what I read. He was merely responding to a comment Shoe made and giving his opinion - that's all.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • innovator
                                                        SBR High Roller
                                                        • 11-28-08
                                                        • 238

                                                        #28
                                                        CK, need your favorite NBA pick of the day.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • cocknocker
                                                          Restricted User
                                                          • 11-06-08
                                                          • 8001

                                                          #29
                                                          Spoon ,

                                                          I was referring to the times when the Kings played the Spurs in Texas, not overall..Check that out now
                                                          Comment
                                                          • W0lfy
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 01-06-08
                                                            • 765

                                                            #30
                                                            Originally posted by NBA Hero
                                                            ck,

                                                            your pick on bucks won by 34pts.
                                                            forgot to thank you on that one. rode on your pick.

                                                            it seems like denver need to pick up some more players. hilario doesnt have a strong back up coz kenyon has some nagging injuries.
                                                            Just need to teach Kenyon how to dribble the ball first then make a move. Dudes guaranteed one travel per game, soo frustrating to see when your moneys on Denver.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • Spoon
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-21-08
                                                              • 592

                                                              #31
                                                              @CK:

                                                              lol, well I didn't know you were talking about the games only hosted by the Spurs. There was no mention of that in your post. Nevertheless, if that's the case then their record is 1-1. The Spurs scored 100 or more points on their home court against the Kings once last season. The games played were as follows... 102-89 Spurs won and 96-80 Spurs won again.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • CTS5
                                                                SBR High Roller
                                                                • 12-02-08
                                                                • 223

                                                                #32
                                                                What about the lakers game for the 1st half. I wouldnt take the -10.5 for the whole game because of lakers not closing people out, but I can defintely see the lakers coming off strong in the 1st against the grizzlies and cover 6 points. Any thoughts?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • wangichu
                                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                                  • 11-07-08
                                                                  • 946

                                                                  #33
                                                                  i'll look into it more later, but one thing i know is that the grizzlies ALWAYS play the lakers tough for some gay reason. I hate it because the lake show is my team, but they have just historically given us a game when they play. Last year i got a lakers -4 spread against them when the lakers were how and i cashed it successfully and then the last two games in LA, one they lost by 2 and the other they won SU... this year the spread is +10.5 and that's only going to rise. i'll have more later, but that's my first pick. That and the lakers are not playing good ball right now... sloppy around the court.

                                                                  MEM +12 (with "public donations")/ small ML play
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • wangichu
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 11-07-08
                                                                    • 946

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by CTS5
                                                                    What about the lakers game for the 1st half. I wouldnt take the -10.5 for the whole game because of lakers not closing people out, but I can defintely see the lakers coming off strong in the 1st against the grizzlies and cover 6 points. Any thoughts?
                                                                    i know they're coming off losses, but they haven't played well in their last 3. Memphis can give them fits even if LA plays decent.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • innovator
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 11-28-08
                                                                      • 238

                                                                      #35
                                                                      i like the lakers/grizzlies total under.
                                                                      Comment
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