Leans for Sunday 12/21/08

[cocknocker]

In Sunday's hardwood action we have 4 games on the docket, so the pickings will be slim.

I looked all day for reasons to take the Knicks against the Celtics. I looked all the way back to 2006, and I still could not find a legitamate reason why I should take the points. Throw in the fact that the Knicks are on a perpetual road trip playing 5 west coast road games, then come home to play one, get blown out in that one, and then go to Boston, in what is basically a 7 game road trip. One thing that I have learned about Boston is they don't take any competition lightly. I capped thisgame out to Celtics -16 and the line came out at -14.5. The power rankings have the Celtics winning by 19. What more can I say? the Knicks have given up 106 points per game on average over their last 5 games...Oh my...

Celtics-13.5 (buying a point anyway)
Celtics team total over 107 (projected)

The Pistons are obviuosly not your uncle's Pistons of old. They can't defend as well as they used to only because their OFFENSIVE shooting percentage isn't what it used to be. But they can still rebound with the best of them. Atlanta has been on a under hot streak with 8 out of their last 9 going under the number. Now ordinarily, that would be a cause for a rush to the counter to take the under and keep the streak alive. i say not so fast homies. In games that are perceied to e nder games sometimes the exact opposite will happen. The Pistons and the Hawks combine regularly to score 196 points per game on average, with totals lines that are 187 on the usual, which incidently is the totals line for this game. With a 9 point cushion between the actual and the average perceived total, i will ride with the over in this game as the over is a pefect 5-0 in games in Atlanta in games between these two clubs.

Hawks/Pistons over 187


College basketball

Florida State+7.5 (are you kdding me?)


NFL Football

Early games:

Titans+3 (buying a point)
49ers-5.5

Second set of games

Bills+7.5 (buying a point and a half)
Bucanneers-2.5 *(only if Garcia is playing)

Late game

Giants-2.5 (buying a hook) I'm playing this one BIG, folks


So there it is boys and girls. I've shown you mine, now you show me yours....

[fearless]

CK,

I'm trying an experiment of having a one on one contest that's graded on action points. Since you post picks everyday, can I use your picks in my experiment. I just want to see what it's like.

[Devon]

I'm thinking that Atlanta tomorrow might be a very good play against Detriot.

*Last 20 times Detroit are ATS 8-12-0 = -5.20 units
*Detroit played over time last night
*Atlanta are 10-2 at home
*Atlanta are 4-2 at home ATS from there last 10 games

Only con I can see at this stage is Detroit have never been dogs against Atlanta the last 20 times but I don't think that should be a problem tomorrow.

Anyway, let us know what you think of the -3.5 Atlanta play.

[cocknocker]

Devon,

Much like it is fruitful to fade the Lakers, the same could be said for the Pistons. I have the Hawks winning by 5, so for what it's worth it's a good play. With a spead of 3.5, you can't really get below the next key number, so my opinion is to wait it out until the morning and see what the public is gonna do with this line. They may like Detroit...

[BmoreBucco]

Anyone with me on Houston -6.5 (buying the half) atOakland? Seems to me the Texans have found their stride and are dtermined to roll into next season with guns a blazin'! Schaub, Slaton, Johnson......the Raiders, am I missing something?

[The_Kid]

Anyone with me on Houston -6.5 (buying the half) atOakland? Seems to me the Texans have found their stride and are dtermined to roll into next season with guns a blazin'! Schaub, Slaton, Johnson......the Raiders, am I missing something?

They are a hot team right now. I don't see how you can take Oakland anyways.

[peterpan19]

ck
why not buy a point on that lorida game ? Your only small on that one, or like normal nba play ?

kc +3.5 looks good too, playing great lately, weather and fans in favour of them too
det +7, well they have to win one game, but too risky, maybe small on ML

[cocknocker]

I just locked the Celtics in at -13.5 to get it out of the way. The team total is not up yet, so I will have to wait on that one. I have adjusted my projection for the Celtics team total to 110.5

[Godzilla]

New England ML
New Orleans ML
KC Chiefs ML
Texans ML
Celtics -10
Cavs -10

[cocknocker]

peterpan19,

I don't think that the line on the Florida State game will stay where it is. By the morning, it will more than likely by +8. I can make my final decision at that time. Interstingly enough, i have Florida State actually winning that game by 4 after inclusion of the homecourt advantage. Th pwer rankings have Pitsburgh winning by 9, but Florida State is famous for guarding their homecourt. Don't get me wrong though, Pittsburgh is a fine team though.I just feel that they are expected to win by too many against an ACC team on the road.

[shoebox]

CK how you feeling on the fish -3.5 and buying it down to 2.5??

[BigMoneyMan]

peterpan19,

I don't think that the line on the Florida State game will stay where it is. By the morning, it will more than likely by +8. I can make my final decision at that time. Interstingly enough, i have Florida State actually winning that game by 4 after inclusion of the homecourt advantage. Th pwer rankings have Pitsburgh winning by 9, but Florida State is famous for guarding their homecourt. Don't get me wrong though, Pittsburgh is a fine team though.I just feel that they are expected to win by too many against an ACC team on the road.

Don't even think about it. You stay with football for now homes. Stick with whats working

[BigMoneyMan]

Well Ladies I will tell you that everyday from now on until further notice i will be taking Cleveland 1st half and game. I don't give a F*ck where there at who there playing. In addition there is a team in NHL that I have been watching and betting that is tearing it up. The Boston bruins. Don' worry about the juice take the -1.5 puck line every time and thank me later. Check the states +140 to +200 everytime.

[tjtjtj12]

seriously ck, thanks to you on the celts and bucks these past 2 nites.... never been more confident in nba picks in my gambling career.... balt was also a nice pick going against brandon lang who had cowboys as his 25 dimer on sat.... i usually shadow his picks especially late in season and playoffs, but went PC and it paid off... much props.... looking like i'll be a regular for some time.... thanks for your dedication.... it is appreciated...

[The_Kid]

CK, here is some news regarding Jeff Garcia's injury.

Jeff Garcia (calf) practiced in limited form for a third straight day Friday and coach Jon Gruden says he expects Garcia to start in Week 16 against San Diego. "I believe he'll be the starter," Gruden confirmed. "Now, what his playing strength and stamina is, I can't be a true judge of that today. I know he'll give everything he has."

[wangichu]

Well Ladies I will tell you that everyday from now on until further notice i will be taking Cleveland 1st half and game. I don't give a F*ck where there at who there playing. In addition there is a team in NHL that I have been watching and betting that is tearing it up. The Boston bruins. Don' worry about the juice take the -1.5 puck line every time and thank me later. Check the states +140 to +200 everytime.

i'm with you on cleveland... that's exactly what i thought after the nuggets game was over... i should have stuck to cleveland 1st half if not game... i'm going to do the same thing until they stop covering them... cleveland half game whenever, wherever.


btw... hell ya to PC plays, after a crushing losing day friday, i wound up with more money than i had before losing a ton thanks to PCs on baltimore and some college ball .... good stuff man

[_MisterMoney_]

cocknocker I have been checking up on your NCAAB plays of late and it seems like you do pretty well in the sport. I'm exactly even. 10-10-1 Up 1 unit. Not good of course. I was wondering if you keep track of your record cuz it seems like you are one of the best if not best on here. I was just wondering how well you do in NCAAB. Thanks

[NBA Hero]

hmm, atlanta looks good with their record. dallas is also coming from a horrible loss. surely they will hear an earful from cuban. and washington is on a losing steak.

wash and detroit will continue their losing ways

[maddogmadden86]

i'm with your bigmoney cavs first half and game tomorrow the bruins have been a solid beastly team too lets get them tomorrow kids! i'm to hoped up on vodka right now after celebrating a 3-1 night god damn nuggets lost me again but oh well what can u do i'm going to be dreaming about dollar bills and what wil make me money tomorrow, alos CK i had posted about the rockets winnning and the key number being 7-8 and with the spread only bening 5-5 being a good play i'm glad i did seeing how they were leading by 7 for most of the game lol, just seeing if u took them or not lets get them tomorrow my brother!

[africanroller]

Big Money I thought you said stay away from Hockey 20-6 ML in the last 3 days. Absolutely hammering the books.

I have no idea why anyone is playing College Hoops. 90% of the games I have seen being bet on this board have gone down in flames the last two weeks. I even listened to a couple of them yesterday and Texas didnt only not cover,they outright lost. Its a coin flip and no system or logic is working ,so why waste money?

[cs11787]

Hey CK so is NYG your play of the day? How high is the most you would take it at? Thanks.

[NBA Hero]

det-atl

the line on detroit had gone up.

anybody seeing this as a mismatch?

[willpies]

im going for atlanta basically because i like them a little bit. Although KG leader of the year go celtics

[ebbearsfb1]

im not sure how you seel florida st winning, just for the simple fact both times i saw them play they struggled against not so great teams in Georgia St. And Tennesse Tech, maybe it'll be close, but i think the better team from the better conference pulls it out late

[BigMoneyMan]

Big Money I thought you said stay away from Hockey 20-6 ML in the last 3 days. Absolutely hammering the books.

I have no idea why anyone is playing College Hoops. 90% of the games I have seen being bet on this board have gone down in flames the last two weeks. I even listened to a couple of them yesterday and Texas didnt only not cover,they outright lost. Its a coin flip and no system or logic is working ,so why waste money?

Your Correct! I stay away from NHL like the plague but the Bruins are the Cleveland of hockey right now and the puck line is on fire. Let me know if you have bee hitting on it and what you like.

My early card is. Football whatever CK says and Tampa Bay -2.5
NBA Atlanta. -3 This is not the same Detroit team without Billups and they will get it done.
NCAAB I am on Youngstown State +17

[BigMoneyMan]

I can't roll with the 49ers but Tampa, Tenn are good for me early

[billcat]

Would you mind pasting a list of the "key points" for BB? Thank you.

[joanapoker]

Just made this bet......

21/12/2008 16:44 Aposta simples



San Francisco 49ers em casa dos St. Louis Rams (Spread) San Francisco 49ers +4,5€110.00@ 1.91


How the Fckkk is this possible?? At my other bookie (bet365) the line is correct -4.5!!! If the site puted the wrong line and my bet is a win, do I still win??

[Smacksmiter]

So...one of my books, local who connects with one of those offshore sites, has the NYGs at -3.5 and the NYJs at -3.5....

That is not a typo on my part, obviously is on their part...but lets say for the sake of argument that they dont catch the error and go ahead and pay it out...

There must be an opportunity here but Im a little too sick today to figure it out...a little help from my friends would be nice.

[Smacksmiter]

OOPs..nevermind...I must really be sick, thought the Jets and Giants were playing each other today...lol...

[shoebox]

Any updated status on Jeff Garcia?

[cocknocker]

Man after hours and hours of waiting it out, I finally got the Greek to offer the Titans at +2.5. I bought my hook, and now have them at +3. 3.5 was being offered at the outrageous price of -155, so I backed off of that, but I got the 3 at -130, which is the equivalent of a baseball bet in my opinion. I am happy to get them at that number at home. I know that Van Dan Bosch and haynesworth ar both out, but it is too easy to take the Steelers in this game. I just can't go with the crowd and be among the 73% who are on the Steelers, even if they are my favorite team. I have to play with my head and not my heart.

I played the Niners at -4.5 with no cut on it.

[shoebox]

ck niners are down to -4.5 now yet 72% of the dough is on em. You still liking this

[killersweet]

Yesterday Pacers ML came thru. today lets hope for the lions to come thru. Played them on the ML(small play).
So many tough games today.
I like NE to win by a touchdown. I know the line has gone up. but can u imagine Warner in snow today? Fumble city!

[cocknocker]

I know shoe, as soon as I went to put my wager in it went down to 4.5. I had them pegged to win this game by 8, so i am not sweating the line movement at all. TheRams are anemic on offense and the Niners aren't even with the news this morning that Gore won't play. The 3.5, 4, 4.5, 5,5.5,6, 6.5, are all in between the key numbers anyway. It all boils don to the Niners have to win bya touchdown, which I fully believe taht they will. San Francisco is 8-2 ats against the Rams for a reason.