Leans for Tuesday 12/16/08

[nonsense48]

That's right, Lakers baby! And I haven't bet on them in a long time. But this is a good situation for them to get the cover.

ck...advice please. i've posted 3 replys to you and they show for a moment and then disappear. what am i doing wrong. thanks in advance for any advice you can give me on how to fix this problem as i'm new to this forum

[mundane]

hilarious!!! im fukking sold on this line...

you know you're in trouble when your center (David Lee) is only a few inches taller than Kobe. WTF is he gonna do when Andrew Bynum and Pao Gasol are coming at him ALL night?

[nonsense48]

a 4 team teaser is not considered a "small teaser" my friend. very difficult to hit. just my opinion.

[cocknocker]

jayc88,

Preach , baby, preach!

WestsidePete,

I will never go against the Celtics in a big game again. They get unbelievable love from the officials. It seems like in the big games they always get at least 15 more free throws than their opponents. The smart money is with the C's, baby. The Lakers may win the Championship this year and still not cover even once if they have to play the Celtics again.

[cs11787]

Hey CK whats the most you like the lines of your picks at? I have to wait till the morning and as you know my local doesnt sell points.

[cocknocker]

My official plays so far are

New Orleans-4 (bought a point)
Lakers-12 (bought a point)

I have already played these two games so there's no turning back. My brother is going to watch the line for me in the Portland game tomorrow and pull the trigger on it if the line ever goes down to 10.5 and make a play for me at Portland-9.5, which is my desired play for that game.

[cocknocker]

cs11787

The most that I would take New Orleans at is -6, and the Lakers -14. In order for my games to win I would have to get wins by this margin, and that's the margin of victory that I have pegged for these games. Anything over that I would not like. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY PLAY OVER THOSE NUMBERS

[ManBearPig]

Another interesting stat I just came across is in the last 3 yrs 9 of 9 games have gone over between these two teams 4 of them in Memphis. Both teams are scoring around 100/game in the last 5 games as well...just some food for thought.

[nonsense48]

i've posted replys to ck's posts but they show for a moment and disappear. what am i doing wrong?

[nonsense48]

cs11787

The most that I would take New Orleans at is -6, and the Lakers -14. In order for my games to win I would have to get wins by this margin, and that's the margin of victory that I have pegged for these games. Anything over that I would not like. I DO NOT RECOMMEND ANY PLAY OVER THOSE NUMBERS

ck, can you pm me please. it seems i need help posting on this site. i've replied to you 3 times and they show for a moment and disappear. what am i doing wrong. any advice would be welcome. thank you in advance. btw i'm chuck from toledo ohio

[cocknocker]

nonsense48,

Believe it or not I can see your post right now, and so can everybody else. You are selecting "go advanced" instead of "Post Quick Reply"

ManBearPig,

Dammit, I think I absolutely love that play. I am putting that one up on my chalkboard, so you know what that means. I like that. That's Midnight Madness at it's best!

[ManBearPig]

At 191 that looks like a solid play except I prob won't get it until it hits 195 or so tomorrow and miss out.

[nonsense48]

i was hitting quick reply. i think it may have been that i just registered that it may have taken some time for the powers that be to o.k me and i was posting away before their approval. once i was approved, they all hit at once. thank you

[Spoon]

So much for that trap that so many people were concerned about in the Orlando game. Everything I did pointed to the Magic despite the questionable DH. I have more confidence in this team than any other team in the NBA. 16-9 ATS is a nice statistic and this team has cashed for me every time I placed a bet with them this year except once. Congrats to everyone who cashed with the Magic last night.

As for tonight’s game, I’m on the Hornets as well -4, but I’m on the other side of CK’s Lakers’ play. I’m hoping the public will go heavy on the Lakers like usual so I get more cushion with the Knicks. I’m prepared to take the Knicks +14 or more tonight. It’s +13.5 now. FYI, the Lakers have not covered ATS in their last 6 games and the 6 games prior to that miserable run, they only covered every other game. Although the Lakers are 11-12 ATS, they are obviously due to cover sometime real soon, however, I think 14 points or more is a bit too much here against the Knicks. I going to try and watch the line closely and will squeeze the line for all it’s worth.

Note: I want to be clear here… although the Lakers have not covered their last 6 games, they had to play down to their competition in 5 of those 6 games. When they do this they seem to get raddled easily and their game turns to mush. Just keep that in mind because it will be a different story against the Knicks. I’m still on this Knicks, nonetheless.

Lastly, guys, while CK is an excellent capper in my opinion, he is also human. I’m sure CK enjoys making those people who follow him lots of money, but at the same time I’m sure he prefers that you use common sense, manage your money properly, think for yourselves, perhaps outside the box, and make an attempt to research the matchups on your own instead of just taking his word as gold simply because he can’t predict the outcome of any game. I’m only bringing this up because of the Miami outcome. Last night I posted in the thread that something was seriously wrong with the line movement in this game. This movement reminded me of the Cavs and Pistons line movement that turned out bad as well. Although the way I capped the game looked like a win for the Heat I decided to back off the game because something didn’t feel right – I Posted this too. Nevertheless, the point is that a lot of you also questioned this line moving down before game time, yet still took the game for some reason. If your gut is telling you something is wrong or you have to question your wager move onto to another game.

[spal2811]

no one likes the clippers at -4.5?

[cocknocker]

Time for Style's play tomorrow:

She feels that her Cats are now ready to play together. Charlotte has been getting closer and closer losing by 5, then 4, then 4 again. The Missus said tonight that 7 losses in a row are enough; and she feels that although the Bulls have a good ats record against Bobbies they haven't faced this version of the Bobbies.

Style's likes the Bobcats tomorrow, and if they are the underdog, she likes the moneyline.

Another good sign is that she doesn't like the Kings tomorrow, because as she tells it, they will be up all night talking in the hotel about their new and old coach when they arrive in Oregon. In other words she feels that they are in transition.


So Style's play is:

Bobcats moneyline

[cocknocker]

ManBearPig,

You may want to go offshore and get you an online account. Greek pays out the same day, and that's the only book that I know of that does that!

[nonsense48]

nonsense48,

Believe it or not I can see your post right now, and so can everybody else. You are selecting "go advanced" instead of "Post Quick Reply"

ManBearPig,

Dammit, I think I absolutely love that play. I am putting that one up on my chalkboard, so you know what that means. I like that. That's Midnight Madness at it's best!

hello folks, i'm chuck from toledo ohio. i just registered on this forum. i've been visiting as a guest for a couple of weeks and i'm impressed the amount of time you spend studying for your picks as ialso do. i look forward to interacting with most of you. on the other hand some of you haven't got a clue as to what you're doing and you should just stick with your day job. you'll make more money. manage your wagers and your money well and good luck however you choose. peace

[ManBearPig]

ManBearPig,

You may want to go offshore and get you an online account. Greek pays out the same day, and that's the only book that I know of that does that!

Ya I've been looking at them but I'm still a little hesitant to proceed...I guess you can call me paranoid and I guess I'm just more comfortable knowing that the casino will give me cold hard cash and it's a 5 min drive. There are times when I can see it being handy though which could help with the timing of some bets. I'm just trying to wade through all this and get over my hesitency.

[Spoon]

no one likes the clippers at -4.5?

I'm already on it -4

GL

[CTS5]

Not liked by his players?? you are way off here...you obviously don't live in LA...there was a big preseason story out here how happy Buss is with him as coach and he'd like to sign him to an extention...they are 20-3 and you say they play with no heart?? the lines are way off and they aren't blowing teams out but no heart would mean losses correct??

You know why he got an extension? He's with Jerry Buss' daughter. And I do live in LA, and yes they are winning but look at their team. Do you not see a difference in how they started the season pounding teams, and now they play no defense. I'm a pretty hardcore laker fan, but this way of playing will not beat teams like boston.

[CTS5]

-4.5 clippers is my play of the day. I'm trying to find anything wrong with that line but I just cant.

[Spoon]

-4.5 clippers is my play of the day. I'm trying to find anything wrong with that line but I just cant.

The public is on Oklahoma City currently just so you know, but that shouldn't affect your decision.

[The_Kid]

The public is on Oklahoma City currently just so you know, but that shouldn't affect your decision.

Actually, I see that the public is currently on the Clippers. It's still early, but we'll see what happens with the movement tomorrow morning/afternoon. I like the Clippers too because it seems they have finally started to put all that talent on their roster together. I didn't think they were THIS bad. Maybe getting Zach Randolph was a good thing too because he gives them that low post threat. Having Camby alongside him on the defensive end helps a lot too.

[wangichu]

Time for Style's play tomorrow:

She feels that her Cats are now ready to play together. Charlotte has been getting closer and closer losing by 5, then 4, then 4 again. The Missus said tonight that 7 losses in a row are enough; and she feels that although the Bulls have a good ats record against Bobbies they haven't faced this version of the Bobbies.

Style's likes the Bobcats tomorrow, and if they are the underdog, she likes the moneyline.

Another good sign is that she doesn't like the Kings tomorrow, because as she tells it, they will be up all night talking in the hotel about their new and old coach when they arrive in Oregon. In other words she feels that they are in transition.


So Style's play is:

Bobcats moneyline

this is the one i'm looking for... anyone who reads my posts knows how much i love charlotte as home dogs and the bulls are not dominant of a team to impose their will on a hungry bobcat squad.

also on the blazers for the 11.5 thing and sac's blowout and the lakers cuz they haven't covered in two years. don't think i'll get much crazier than that today... but i may go lakers first half... phil dominates d'antoni and new york coved in LA last year... doubt it happens again.

[Spoon]

Actually, I see that the public is currently on the Clippers. It's still early, but we'll see what happens with the movement tomorrow morning/afternoon. I like the Clippers too because it seems they have finally started to put all that talent on their roster together. I didn't think they were THIS bad. Maybe getting Zach Randolph was a good thing too because he gives them that low post threat. Having Camby alongside him on the defensive end helps a lot too.

I guess it depends where we get our information. I did find another source that shows public on Clippers and the Under for the game. Nonetheless, I'm already on the clippers -4 and feel confident in this game. Let's take it to the bank.

[joanapoker]

for those of you looking into the hornets/grizzlies game ...
the over is 10-0 in the last 10 that these teams have played with the over being listed at an average of 197.8 and the totals for the game have averaged 213.8 and as for the hornets themselves they are only 6-4 ats in the last 10(9-1SU) vs memphis.
another stat to look at is that in these 10 meetings the hornets have averaged 53.3 in the 1st half while memphis has averaged 47.9(for the game/NOH 111.1;MEM102.7)
the hornets do look very good in this game and the over/under is not posted yet(at least on my website). but i will strongly consider playing the over if it is not too high and a definite play that i will take will be new orleans 1st half

if anyone else is looking at this game and hitting any other useful info plaese let me know!

And the line is just 191....lovely I've pounded that already.....it's my play of the night! Glad to see that info here to make it a stronger bet!

Last night, ORL -2 (when the line opened) wasn't after all a trap....guess linemaker wanted to make it feel like a trap!
thx CK for the info on the "hook" @ PHX

and Sory for ur loss....

[NBA Hero]

regarding chandler of NO. he is indispensable. we got lucky against toronto. armstrong got into early foul trouble, posey got 6-treys.

grizzlies is getting good plays from gasol and malicic.

[joanapoker]

Also betting the OVER 199 @OKC

Both poor defensive teams, are 9-3(combined) Over-Under, when playing against a team that allows 99 ppg and are 13-5 when playing against a team with a losing record! This should be a game with both teams scoring more than 100!

I also like the LAC -4.5, but I'll wait for later to see the line movement!

[pinnacle212]

your putting to many variable on that thing JayC. Hornets and Clips. Hornet +5.5 and the under in the clips game. Time will run while to poor shooting teams try to find the bucket

[jayc88]

I guess it depends where we get our information. I did find another source that shows public on Clippers and the Under for the game. Nonetheless, I'm already on the clippers -4 and feel confident in this game. Let's take it to the bank.

be careful with the clippers ,
i totally agree that they have a great form right now and should (!) handle the city thunder quite easily , but the public is pounding lac and the line hasn't moved yet. Can't find a logical reasoning except that they had 2 tough games against portland (double ot ) and houston during the weekend.

I'm personally staying away ,but gl with the clippers since you'Ve already pulled the trigger.

[vassman86]

Lastly, guys, while CK is an excellent capper in my opinion, he is also human. I’m sure CK enjoys making those people who follow him lots of money, but at the same time I’m sure he prefers that you use common sense, manage your money properly, think for yourselves, perhaps outside the box, and make an attempt to research the matchups on your own instead of just taking his word as gold simply because he can’t predict the outcome of any game. I’m only bringing this up because of the Miami outcome. Last night I posted in the thread that something was seriously wrong with the line movement in this game. This movement reminded me of the Cavs and Pistons line movement that turned out bad as well. Although the way I capped the game looked like a win for the Heat I decided to back off the game because something didn’t feel right – I Posted this too. Nevertheless, the point is that a lot of you also questioned this line moving down before game time, yet still took the game for some reason. If your gut is telling you something is wrong or you have to question your wager move onto to another game.

Spoon is completely right. Research pays. Doing your own research will not only help you out as a bettor in the long run, but you can spot holes in CK's analyses, such as identifying key pieces of info that CK might've left out. Becoming a good handicapper takes time, and can be a tough learning curve. But without research, you'll be getting nowhere, fast.

For example, in regards to the Hornets game tonight, it appears that CK didn't even take a glimpse at the total for the game, nor the trends for the totals between the two teams!

[leopoldim86]

[cocknocker]

Vassman86,

Preach, baby, preach! I can't believe that I didn't see it either, but that's what the board is for, and thanks to ManBearPig, I am playing the over in that game as well. See I need everyone's input, just like they need mine. We all can help each other beat the books. That's the true objective here. Not give me yo picks, homie. It's more like everyone ask themselves what can I add to the board that is my strongest play of the day. As anyone can see i have absolutely no problem with anyone having a difference of opinion on any game. I don't hate, i congratulate, even if it means that they win and I lose. Plus it keeps the CK Mafia goons in a peaceful manner too. They don't like to get riled up.

[mundane]

since u mentioned something about team ownership, i'd like to mention also that celtics are off the board on any harrahs entertainment casino/sportsbooks. i believe one of the harrah's owner is also part owner of the boston celtics. it actually kinda screwed them, sportsbook operation (revenue)-wise, last nba finals (besides celtics regular and post season games) as they didnt have anything on their board for the nba finals games.