TSA "Understanding the Bookies" NBA 2013

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-18-13, 03:57 AM

GS easily won straight up (dogs are 10-6 SU since the start of the thread) but the Nets disappointed.
1-1 night, pretty much a no play day.

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD:

17-11 (60.71%)
+5.239u (+18.71% Yield)

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-18-13, 04:35 AM

03/18 Plays:

Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 @1.96 (DafaBet)
Portland Trail Blazers +1 @1.935 (Pinnacle)

A lot of lines still not out, so I'll update the thread during the day.

Since I was asked about a Twitter account I've just created one (@DaSportsAnalyst or search #TheSportsAnalyst hashtag) but the main reference will ever be SBR.

Cheers!

TensionX1 · 03-18-13, 06:21 AM

Hey there, I'm just curious in your stand behind Bobcats +7.5. They're really not the best team to bet on to cover the spread. Are you only betting on the +7.5 because of Wizard's hectic schedule for the past week? That's the only thing I can think of.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-18-13, 07:24 AM

According to my personal ratings I think the Bobcats should have been around +4/+4.5, so the +7.5 represents value (imho, of course).
Statistically Washington is 6-8 ATS as fav and 0-2 as road fav and this should be taken in account, even against a putrid team like the Cats.
Despite I like Washington this line is pretty big for a low tier team playing on the road and, contrarily to what people could think, Charlotte recent performances on the road were dreadful ATS but very close to the line so I think we could expect a win against the spread very soon.

Adding Minny (monster spread against them, I don't agree)

03/18 Plays:

Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 @1.96 (DafaBet)
Portland Trail Blazers +1 @1.935 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5 @1.88 (Pinnacle)

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-18-13, 11:52 AM

Adding the Pistons, the Bulls (underdog at home against Denver by 3.5 points???) and the Knicks (can't believe in another blowout for them).

03/18 Plays:

Charlotte Bobcats +7.5 @1.96 (DafaBet)
Portland Trail Blazers +1 @1.935 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Timberwolves +13.5 @1.88 (Pinnacle)
Detroit Pistons +3.5 @1.98 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Bulls +3.5 @1.98 (Pinnacle)
New York Knicks +9.5 @2.03 (Pinnacle)

Card completed, huge day and a full load of underdogs.

GL to everyone!

figue · 03-18-13, 08:45 PM

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-19-13, 04:11 AM

Another profitable night, closed with a 3-2 (and a push) record.
2 of the selections also won outright (+240 Bobcats and +512 Knicks) bringing the straight up winning ats dogs record to 12-12 (+16.49u).

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD

20-13-1 (60.61%)
+6.209u (+18.82% Yield)

ATS Dogs Winning SU*

12-12 (50.00%)
+16.49u (+68.71% Yield)

*Pinny/The Greek/Bovada/BETCris closing price.
A team is considered an ATS dog if, atm of the post, the line taken is +1 or higher.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-19-13, 06:00 AM

Opening the day with a probable public play.
Are the Nuggets plus this huge amount of points too good to be true?

03/19 Plays:

Denver Nuggets +8.5 @2.04 (Pinnacle)

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-19-13, 09:45 AM

Closing with the Pacers at home.

03/19 Plays:

Denver Nuggets +8.5 @2.04 (Pinnacle)
Indiana Pacers -11 @2.01 (SBOBET)

GL!

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-19-13, 09:32 PM

2-0 night with a solid profit.
Indiana easily covered and the Nuggets won outright.

Good night to everyone!

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD

22-13-1 (62.86%)
+8.259u (+23.60% Yield)

ATS Dogs Winning SU*

13-12 (52.00%)
+20.91u (+83.64% Yield)

*Pinny/The Greek/Bovada/BETCris closing price.
A team is considered an ATS dog if, atm of the post, the line taken is +1 or higher.

figue · 03-19-13, 09:33 PM

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-20-13, 04:14 AM

WAS @ PHX is pretty much a leveled game, but I give an edge to the Wizs so I take them plus the points at evens with confidence.

03/20 Plays:

Washington Wizards +1.5 @2.00 (Pinnacle)

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-20-13, 06:30 AM

Very hard to pass on the Bucks lately, especially when with a decent bonus of points.
Probably I'm buying a bookie trick but having OKC plus the points is such a rarity... Can't believe they'll fail again, especially after last night.
Finally a fav again: if the Clippers want to win, they could easily cover a 10pts spread at home.

03/20 Plays:

Washington Wizards +1.5 @2.00 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 @1.99 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Clippers -9.5 @1.877 (Pinnacle)

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-20-13, 09:40 AM

Closing the card playing against the Knicks. I'm sorry but I can't compare them to the Pacers: -11 last night for Indiana, -10 today for NYK against the same team? No, thanks.

03/20 Plays:

Washington Wizards +1.5 @2.00 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Bucks +5.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Oklahoma City Thunder +1.5 @1.99 (Pinnacle)
Los Angeles Clippers -9.5 @1.877 (Pinnacle)
Orlando Magic +9.5 @2.03 (Pinnacle)

GL to everyone!

@DaSportsAnalyst

figue · 03-20-13, 11:02 AM

good luck

figue · 03-21-13, 12:28 AM

3-2

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-21-13, 03:53 AM

Yes figue, 3-2 and another profitable night.

A bit of luck with the Thunder but considering how close were Bucks and Magic games I take it with no regret.
Glad about the Clippers, it could have been a bit of a square one.

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD

25-15-1 (62.50%)
+9.126u (+22.82% Yield)

ATS Dogs Winning SU*

14-15 (48.28%)
+18.89u (+65.14% Yield)

*Pinny/The Greek/Bovada/BETCris closing price.
A team is considered an ATS dog if, atm of the post, the line taken is +1 or higher.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-21-13, 05:20 AM

Originally posted by Dior

Does that "ats dogs winning su" record is for your picks or just info?

It's referred to my selections, staking an additional 1u on the ML (at the closing price) for each ATS dog I pick.
That's because I want to keep track of it to see if this more aggressive strategy is profitable over the long term.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-21-13, 07:50 AM

Originally posted by Dior

Oh, so you are not picking those ats dogs yet?

Of course I do.
As I said at the start of the thread I wager every play I post. Just not too big since I don't know if this reasoning, based on odds, could be profitable over the long term.

The main project is the ATS one but also ML Dogs performed pretty well so far so I'll stick with it too.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-21-13, 09:37 AM

Just one for today, 14 points are a lot to cover and Philly is already coming off a blowout last night.
Worth a punt at evens imho.

03/21 Plays:

Philadelphia +14 @2.000 (Pinnacle)

GL to everyone!

Twitter: @DaSportsAnalyst

figue · 03-21-13, 12:06 PM

figue · 03-21-13, 10:31 PM

nice call buddy

TensionX1 · 03-22-13, 02:31 AM

Originally posted by figue

nice call buddy

Definitely. It was nice.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-22-13, 03:47 AM

Thanks guys, another good day.

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD

26-15-1 (63.41%)
+10.126u (+24.70% Yield)

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-22-13, 07:41 AM

Again against the Knicks and giving confidence to Memphis this time.
About big match between the Mavs and Boston I don't think Dallas will be able to crush the Celtics actually. +4 above evens looks a good deal.

Still three matches to come out. Hope I'll be able to do it before MIL@IND start.

03/22 Plays:

Toronto Raptors +1 @1.99 (DafaBet)
Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Boston Celtics +4 @2.03 (Pinnacle)

@DaSportsAnalyst

figue · 03-22-13, 12:05 PM

good luck !!!

TensionX1 · 03-22-13, 12:20 PM

What's your opinion on the Spurs -10.5? They're facing Jazz and I think I could see Spurs having 15+

I'm leaning towards Raptors & Celtics +4

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-22-13, 05:42 PM

Mmm, San Antonio and high spread in the same sentence... Don't like it!
Missed the Wizards +9, still value with +8.5 imho.

03/22 Plays:

Toronto Raptors +1 @1.99 (DafaBet)
Memphis Grizzlies -6.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Boston Celtics +4 @2.03 (Pinnacle)
Washington Wizards +8.5 @1.95 (SBOBET)

GL to everyone!

Twitter: @DaSportsAnalyst

figue · 03-22-13, 10:11 PM

damn bad nigth

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-23-13, 03:48 AM

1-3 yesterday, I was due for it.
Thanks to Washington (+389) the ATS Dogs Winning SU experiment recovered Philly loss and shows a profit for the night.

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD

27-18-1 (60.00%)
+8.076u (+17.95% Yield)

ATS Dogs Winning SU*

15-18 (45.45%)
+19.78u (+59.94% Yield)

*Pinny/The Greek/Bovada/BETCris closing price.
A team is considered an ATS dog if, atm of the post, the line taken is +1 or higher.

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-23-13, 04:42 AM

Pistons way better than Charlotte but spread set to split the %. I also like Indiana + the points today.

03/23 Plays:

Detroit Pistons +1.5 @1.98 (SBOBET)
Indiana Pacers +3.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)

Twitter: @DaSportsAnalyst

TensionX1 · 03-23-13, 05:41 AM

Originally posted by Dior

Like those two a lot, but won't rush it yet. Locked two early unders already, though, because no way they will stay that high

What is your under? I assume one of them is the bobcats game? Not sure about the others that I don't see.

Bobcats are capable of pulling 3 digits, pistons on the other hand.. I can see them being in the high 80s low 90s.

figue · 03-23-13, 08:22 PM

good luck tsa.

figue · 03-23-13, 08:27 PM

pistons winner su

TheSportsAnalyst · 03-24-13, 03:09 AM

Both very close but finally another 2-0 night is in the books.
Pistons (+104) also won outright.

2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD

29-18-1 (61.70%)
+10.008u (+21.29% Yield)

ATS Dogs Winning SU*

16-19 (45.71%)
+19.82u (+56.63% Yield)

*Pinny/The Greek/Bovada/BETCris closing price.
A team is considered an ATS dog if, atm of the post, the line taken is +1 or higher.