TSA "Understanding the Bookies" NBA 2013

[TheSportsAnalyst]

With almost 75% of the NBA season gone maybe it's too late to start a thread but I want to try keeping track of my plays until the Finals next June.

It's just an experiment about some considerations I made during the year and hopefully a starting point for a serious thread next season.

Why "Understanding the Bookies"? Because I'm somewhat convinced on major leagues is pretty much impossible (for common guys like me) to beat bookmakers on their own field and probably the best way to manage even a minimal profit is to understand their odds and methodology.

No particular money management rules for this thread: a flat 1u stake will be used.
The target, of course, is to avoid being in red at the end of the season.
I've no idea if this approach could work in some way and neither about how many plays I'll able to post daily.
But since a lot of threads are made daily here, so maybe one more doesn't make the difference.

Have a nice day guys!


03/08 Plays:

Phoenix Suns +6.5 @2.01 (Pinnacle)


Waiting Pinny lines for:

OKC @ CHA
MEM @ CLE
DAL @ DET
CHI @ UTA

to complete the day.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Adding

03/08 Plays:

Phoenix Suns +6.5 @2.01 (Pinnacle)
Oklahoma City Thunder -14 @1.935 (Pinnacle)

[zilchy]

Good luck but what is this approach you speak of? You doing write ups or just posting plays? Also, flatbetting spreads and playing 5 games a day is probably not the way to go if you already don't feel confident about beating the books.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Good luck but what is this approach you speak of? You doing write ups or just posting plays? Also, flatbetting spreads and playing 5 games a day is probably not the way to go if you already don't feel confident about beating the books.

Hi Zilchy!
Actually the approach is based on some observations about lines making I did in the past, so no writeups.
Anyway I think flat betting is the only way to evaluate the potential of something before analyzing weaknesses and strenghts (and using some MM to improve the results).
I won't bet my house on it of course.
I'm not sure about how many plays will fit this method daily but if in a busy one (like today) there are just 2, maybe 3, I highly doubt I'll play 5/day at any point in the remaining part of the season.

[Frisco]

Good luck but what is this approach you speak of? You doing write ups or just posting plays? Also, flatbetting spreads and playing 5 games a day is probably not the way to go if you already don't feel confident about beating the books.

Hard to make money flatbetting. If you're not very good it will keep you in the game longer tho

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Closing today's card

03/08 Plays:

Phoenix Suns +6.5 @2.01 (Pinnacle)
Oklahoma City Thunder -14 @1.935 (Pinnacle)
Chicago Bulls -4 @1.952 (Pinnacle)


GL to everyone!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

1-2 for the night
-1.065u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/09 Plays:

Utah Jazz +6.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Memphis Grizzlies -7.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

1-1 for the night.

RECORD:
2-3
-1.113u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/10 Plays:

Orlando Magic +2 @1.885 (Pinnacle)
New Orleans Hornets +3 @1.98 (DafaBet)
Milwaukee Bucks +1.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

3-0 night.


RECORD:

5-3
+1.704u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/11 Plays:

Philadelphia 76ers +6 @1.98 (Pinnacle)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Adding NYK

03/11 Plays:

Philadelphia 76ers +6 @1.98 (Pinnacle)
New York Knicks +3.5 @1.91 (BWin)


GL to everyone!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

1-1 night.


RECORD:

6-4
+1.684u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/12 Plays:

Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 @2.02 (DafaBet)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Adding BKN and SAS

03/12 Plays:

Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 @2.02 (DafaBet)
Brooklyn Nets -5.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
San Antonio Spurs -9 @1.935 (Pinnacle)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

The Trail Blazers complete today's card.

03/12 Plays:

Charlotte Bobcats +10.5 @2.02 (DafaBet)
Brooklyn Nets -5.5 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
San Antonio Spurs -9 @1.935 (Pinnacle)
Portland Trail Blazers +1.5 @2.000 (Pinnacle)


GL to everyone!!!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

2-2 night.
Not disappointed but after a clear 2-0 start with Charlotte and the Nets it could have been better.

RECORD:

8-6 (57.14%)
+1.656u

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/13 Plays:

Atlanta Hawks -1 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Memphis Grizzlies +6 @1.98 (Pinnacle)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/13 Plays:

Atlanta Hawks -1 @1.952 (Pinnacle)
Memphis Grizzlies +6 @1.98 (Pinnacle)
Washington Wizards +1 @1.960 (SBOBET)
Sacramento Kings +3.5 @1.91 (BWin)

GL!

[nagogolat]

sweet! thanks for the ride. I bet on Hawks as soon as you post it. I ll be your number 1 follower.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

sweet! thanks for the ride. I bet on Hawks as soon as you post it. I ll be your number 1 follower.

Thank you nagogolat.
But please be careful, I've no idea how much (or even if) this approach could be profitable over long term.


4-0 for the night with all the three dogs winning straight.


2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD:

12-6 (66.67%)
+5.458u (+30.32% Yield)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/14 Plays:

New York Knicks +5.5 @1.91 (bWin)

GL!

[tczfan]

Great wins yesterday. But for New York Knicks +5.5, Im looking towards portland -5.5 because Melo wont be playing and portland are really strong at home. What do you think?

[nagogolat]

mem vs den what do you think TSA. I like mem but den is monster on their home.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

0-1 night.


2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD:

12-7 (63.16%)
+4.458u (+23.46% Yield)

03/15 Plays:

Toronto Raptors -12 @1.971 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Timberwolves +14.5 @2.00 (SBOBET)
Oklahoma City Thunder -16 @1.909 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 @1.94 (DafaBet)
Chicago Bulls +5 @1.97 (DafaBet)


@nagogolat: I actually like Denver more than Memphis but the line isn't tasty enough so I'll pass.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

A small update with Phoenix for the full card.

03/15 Plays:

Toronto Raptors -12 @1.971 (Pinnacle)
Minnesota Timberwolves +14.5 @2.00 (SBOBET)
Oklahoma City Thunder -16 @1.909 (Pinnacle)
Milwaukee Bucks +6.5 @1.94 (DafaBet)
Chicago Bulls +5 @1.97 (DafaBet)
Phoenix Suns +7.5 @2.04 (Pinnacle)


GL!!!

[retire/early]

do you have an opinion on lakers/pacers with out Kobe???

[Zii]

What do you think about Memphis/Denver game? I'm very suspicious about the fact that public is betting their mothers on Denver and line hasn't moved at all, no fluctuation, except for 'early-runners' who released it at -7.5, in general it's stone cold -5.0. I have a feeling that Memphis is up to something tonight.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

About MEM@DEN: I expected a spread around -6/-6.5 for Denver and the opening was -4.5/-5. As I said not very tasty despite the good gap compared to my model.
Now that I see Denver is the (square) play of the night I'm glad I stayed away.

LAL@IND: Line (-9.5) pretty close to my expectations (-8.5) so no advantage imho.

[TheSportsAnalyst]

3-3 night, a little bit disappointed by the Bucks' final part of 4th quarter.
OKC didn't cover for 3 points but it was hard. Very little juice to eat.


2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD:

15-10 (60.00%)
+4.399u (+17.60% Yield)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

Despite I fancy a couple more just one for today.

03/16 Plays:

Washington Wizards -6.5 @1.870 (Pinnacle)


GL!!!

[TheSportsAnalyst]

The Wiz won by 22 covering easily.


2013 NBA "UtB" RECORD:

16-10 (61.54%)
+5.269u (+20.27% Yield)

[TheSportsAnalyst]

03/17 Plays:

Golden State Warriors +7.5 @1.97 (SBOBET)
Brooklyn Nets -4 @1.926 (Pinnacle)

[figue]