No Excuses. Let The Picks Talk. NBA 2013 Picks and Discussion

[500forazip]

Portland +10.0

[JayOne]

Thoughts on Indiana, OKC, Memphis, and SAS? Sorry for the long list.

Sorry unfortunately do not have the time to do full write-ups on these games tonight. I think that Indiana and OKC will cover, however I avoid double digit lines unless I have a compelling reason to take them such as an injury or a specific inkling. I Think Memphis is being given too many points tonight and I don't see them covering. Spurs I don't see winning this game tonight, I might be able to get a full writeup for that game done before gametime if I'm home in time.

Again, these are quick thoughts, I have not delved into statistics for any of these games.

[JayOne]

Portland +10.0

I like the portland pick, but Lakers playing inspired for Mr. Buss and a Kobe playoff guarantee.... not something I'm willing to bet against. Got burned by this when I took Celts +7 the other night. Probably a stay away game for me.

[JayOne]

Well sucked that the denver game was the one I went big on. But at least the other 2 came through for me. Indiana and OKC also covered and memphis did not, as I predicted earlier.

Anyway...

Today's results
2/22/13

Denver -3 (-3.3u)
Boston -2.5 (+1u)
Houston -2 (+1u)

YTD 6-6 (50%) (-2.7u)

[JayOne]

Live bet on Portland, Portland +3 (-115) 1.15u to win 1

[JayOne]

Live bet on Portland, Portland +3 (115) 1.15u to win 1

don't know what the rules are on counting this in my record come game's end. if anyone does please let me know.

Thanks

[JayOne]

No one will object to it counting as a loss. So....

2-2 last night. Feeling a big night tonight. Plays coming in a minute

[JayOne]

Tonight's Plays.

Rockets -2
Cavs -5.5
Pacers -4.5
Heat -7.5
Atlanta +4


Big card tonight, All over the public on this saturday. Hope Vegas hasn't baited all of us

[Shipcity]

I like all your picks, im on pacers and miami large

[JayOne]

Great night. 4-1.

Rockets -2
Cavs -5.5
Pacers -4.5
Heat -7.5
Atlanta +4

YTD 10-8 (55.6%) (+0.2u)

Tonight's plays coming soon

[JayOne]

First plays of the night.

Golden State -2.5
Cavs +12.5
Nets +2.5


Potentially more to come later. Thanks.

[Shipcity]

Im on the other side of the nets game. I like the cavs pick. Gsw wolves looked like a toss up to me.

[JayOne]

Im on the other side of the nets game. I like the cavs pick. Gsw wolves looked like a toss up to me.

Golden State came out flat, looks like they're starting to get it together now. I appreciate the comments, but this is a game I see Nets pulling out.

[Shipcity]

Why do you like the Nets if u dont mind me asking?

[JayOne]

Memphis hasn't seen a playoff caliber team in nearly a month, while Brooklyn has played San Antonio, Indiana, Denver, and Houston all in that time frame, going 2-2 against 4 talented basketball teams. They're at home with a day of rest and play well against defensive minded teams. Plus the fact that Memphis blew out Brooklyn in Memphis earlier in the year and BKN will come out ready for this game. Finally, the line dropped from +3.5 to +2.5 with the public on memphis, I happen to be one of the believers that Vegas knows what they're doing and have been at this a long time.

[MikeTizzy]

jay why are ur units so low? i thought u been at this for over a year. its weak and not very profitable to cap like this. a great night is saw from u is going 4-1 with a gain of less than 1 unit?! cmon dude..

[JayOne]

jay why are ur units so low? i thought u been at this for over a year. its weak and not very profitable to cap like this. a great night is saw from u is going 4-1 with a gain of less than 1 unit?! cmon dude..

The units are 1.1 unit to win 1 per game unless otherwise noted. The record of 10-8 and Units of +0.2 are since I started this thread. I'm not going to post my record and units gained from this season because I have no credibility if its not tracked. People come in here saying they hit 70-80% I can't just say that I'll prove it with my picks. The record and units posted here are since the all star game

[lucasdawg]

any thought on hornets and celtics?

[MikeTizzy]

yes POD O/203.5
Sac/NO

[JayOne]

any thought on hornets and celtics?

I really like the Hornets to cover, they play well as a home favorite and Sacramento is plain awful on the road. I think Hornets are a solid pick. I also think the celtics can cover as well, but seems like a stay away game, not enough in favor of the celtics for me to take it. I can embellish on both of these if you would like.

[MikeTizzy]

nice jAY! my POD of over 203.5 hit as well as ur Hornets to cover like u said.

[JayOne]

nice jAY! my POD of over 203.5 hit as well as ur Hornets to cover like u said.

Very nice.

[JayOne]

On OKC tonight.

Adding pick for the day.

Thunder -9

[MikeTizzy]

nice, i also hav that pick for 1 unit. So we think a like, u can check our my threads i jus started and my record in my page.
i believe u can be a lot better. but honestly tho, ur record and units gain is not worth the RoI, thats basic investing knowledge. u never want to risk 100% for a gain of 2% , u get the same rate by doing nothign at all. Then when u factor into time as a resource invested, its way bad.

[JayOne]

nice, i also hav that pick for 1 unit. So we think a like, u can check our my threads i jus started and my record in my page.
i believe u can be a lot better. but honestly tho, ur record and units gain is not worth the RoI, thats basic investing knowledge. u never want to risk 100% for a gain of 2% , u get the same rate by doing nothign at all. Then when u factor into time as a resource invested, its way bad.

I'm sorry, I don't think your understanding what I'm doing here, nor do I believe you have acquired much financial literacy. My units are around 5% of my bankroll, not 100%, and I am risking 1.1 unit per play. The +0.2u on the year are because I made a poor decision and played a 3.3u play to win 3u two nights ago that ended up losing, thus there is not a 1 for 1 correlation on my record and my units. This is also only through 18 plays over the course of around 5 days. I have made much more than 0.2 units this season, yet that is only related to my record since I began posting 5 days ago. You will see the units gradually increase as I hit well above 50% of my plays, but this is just 5 days in, and the risk is in units because my unit is probably much different than yours, so you can follow and gamble with a unit that fits your style of play.

[JayOne]

Wow, Golden State and Brooklyn both lost ATS by 1. Oh well, shit happens.

11-10 YTD Since 2/18

one play left tonight.

[JayOne]

OKC dominated the Bulls.

Today's Results
Golden State -2.5
Cavs +12.5
Nets +2.5
Thunder -9

2-2 night

YTD 12-10 (54.5%)

[JayOne]

Tonight 2/25

Wizards +5.5
Detroit +4
Denver -7

[JayOne]

Thinking about taking Boston to continue the Monday night fade the public theme

[MikeTizzy]

what up jay, POD i got is over 216 Lal/Den.
im pretty sure dogs can win out right tonite like lakers, Wizards and maybe Det at home. The prob is with Bos, is that team is old and its well documented that they dont do well with no rest and traveling to one of the toughest courts in the nba. im stayin away from bos, dont forget Utah beat up OKC very well at Salt lake, been playin hella way lately. They could easily blow out the celtrics tonite and cover. Over 189 i got is the play here sir.

[JayOne]

Live bet update

On Boston +5.5

[MikeTizzy]

we got both again together Jay, pretty sick huh?

[JayOne]

3-1 Night.

Wizards +5.5
Detroit +4
Denver -7
Boston +5.5


YTD
15-11 (57.7%) (+1.9u)

[JOHON8]

3-1 Night.

Wizards +5.5
Detroit +4
Denver -7
Boston +5.5


YTD
15-11 (57.7%) (+2u)

Well done. Detroit is a team that needs to be faded consistently for the next little while.

[JayOne]

Well done. Detroit is a team that needs to be faded consistently for the next little while.

I appreciate the drop in and comment from an established community member. I am beginning to agree with Detroit, I've been burned by them quite a few times this season.