No Excuses. Let The Picks Talk. NBA 2013 Picks and Discussion

[JayOne]

Hey Everyone. New User here. NBA has treated me well over the previous year and a half, but that being said I am only a year and a half into my career so follow/fade at your own risk. I decided to start a thread as this is probably the most dedicated community I have come across in my 18 months on the various sites and forums, and thus this is the first one I have felt compelled to create a username. I feel I can be a positive addition to the community and contribute by providing my insight while gaining and learning knowledge from all of you.

So a little about this thread:
I will be posting my plays. All picks to win 1 unit unless otherwise noted.
I will track plays.
I mostly only play spreads, I rarely will post an Over/Under

MOST IMPORTANTLY
I thoroughly enjoy talking these picks out and I will facilitate discussion as well as answer any questions and comments related to my picks. I am a big believer in the intangible aspects of the game, as a former collegiate athlete, I feel these are imperative and must be accounted for, yet putting a point value on them is where the skill and art of handicapping comes in to play.

I look at lines based on tangible measurable stats, and then incorporate intangibles such as coaching styles, schedules, motivation, hotness, etc...

Thanks for reading and I hope together we can enjoy whatever is next to come. I will not be a stranger and you will see me active on other threads as we can discuss and work together to all improve our handicapping abilities as a community.

[JayOne]

Early Leans

Bucks +4.5
Washington -2.5
Memphis -2
Chicago -2

Will look at the later games in a little while.
Plays will be posted tonight closer to game time

[JayOne]

2/19/2013

Today's plays

Chicago -2 (-115)
Denver -8.5 (-110)


possibly more to come later

0-0 YTD

[x187soldier]

looks good! might add CHI first half too

[JayOne]

Adding

Washington -3 (-110)

[mitch51]

2/19/2013

Today's plays

Chicago -2 (-115)
Denver -8.5 (-110)


possibly more to come later

0-0 YTD

Makes me feel better, as I just took the Nuggets. Although everyone is rested, playing at a mile high has to be a challenge for the Celtics, hope they get run off the court. Welcome to SBR.

[JayOne]

First day in the books

2/19/2013
Washington -3 (-1.1u)
Chicago -2 (+1u)
Denver -8.5 (-1.1u)


1-2 YTD (-1.2u)

Denver game was close but they missed too many wide open 3's in the fourth. Only won by 7.

Today's plays will be posted later. Thanks.

[JayOne]

Today's leans

Memphis +1
Bobcats +3
Cavs -2.5
Heat -5.5
Rockets +3

Will delve into these and post plays later

[JayOne]

First two plays of the day with a little bit of the thought process...

Memphis +1
Both teams play in the halfcourt, ranking 28^th and 25^th in pace, thus Memphis’ weak transition defense will not be as much of a factor. Memphis ranks 2^nd defensively (def. rtg) in the league, and plays well on the road with a 13-10 road record and 13-10 ATS on the road while Toronto is 14-13 ATS at home. Memphis controls the boards and both teams limit turnovers, while Rudy Gay played a ton of minutes last night while Memphis was able to rest its core players in the fourth. And Memphis is 9-0 after scoring 105 pts or more.

Heat -5.5
Lebron with rest combined with the level of performance he has been displaying night in and night out over this win streak, plus the anger from all the talk of Kobe locking him down at the end of the all star game. Who can matchup with the big 3 defensively on ATL? 1st game Lebron dropped 24 and Bosh 21. 2nd Game Lebron dropped 27 and Wade 26. And Atlanta pretty piss poor as a home underdog. That’s all I need to continue riding the Heat’s recent tear. Never leave a table on a heater (no pun intended). Heat come out surprisingly hungry for a February game. Both teams suck on the boards, Miami limits turnovers, shoots a high percentage, game set mach.

[mitch51]

Was thinking of this until I found out Joey Crawford was reffing. He is whack, and adds too much unpredictability in what should be a predictable game. So, passing.

[JayOne]

Adding

Cleveland -3

[JayOne]

Adding

Boston +7

tipoff has not started yet due to the Jerry Bus ceremony

[JayOne]

Update so far tonight...

Memphis +1 (+1u)
Miami -5.5 (+1u)
Cleveland -3 (+1u)

3-0 on the night thus far, one game left, lets get this sweep.

4-2 YTD (+1.8u)

[JayOne]

Boston +7 (-1.1)

YTD 4-3 (+0.7u)

[JayOne]

Early leans

Chicago +3
LA Clippers -3

Will take a much more in depth look at these later

[ABOSSSGAME]

I like MIA and LAC ML - what are your thoughts?

[JayOne]

Miami game is interesting... I assume the Bulls will out-rebound Miami and dominate the boards. But other than that and the fact that Miami is playing on back to back nights and traveling....not much going for Chicago. Miami is 6-1 playing on back to back days (3-4 ATS), and chicago is 7-20 ATS at home (15-12 straight up). Miami will shoot a high percentage, they don't turn the ball over often and Chicago ranks 24th in turnovers forced. But Miami's bench is weak in points and efficiency, and Birdman is questionable, probably not 100% if he plays.

Bulls have lost to playoff teams often this season, since the start of February they have been beaten by the Nets, Pacers, Nuggets, Spurs, Celtics. Then again I feel they return home with a day of rest and really bring the intensity coming off the win in NO. But the heat could very well carry over their 4th quarter defense and scoring attack into this game.

I apologize for all the ambiguity, but what it comes down to is this is not an easy game to cap. While I have the Heat winning by 6 based purely on tangible statistics, I can see them complacent and feeling they can turn it on in any 4th quarter after last night and stumbling tonight to the Bulls.

After a little dissection, I think the Heat ML will payout, but I would not rule out Chicago taking this game SU. Might be a stay away game for me, yet as I said yesterday, don't leave a table on a heater. I may continue to ride the Heat train until it falls off the tracks.

[ABOSSSGAME]

Thanks JayOne for your assessment. Thoughts on LAC?

[karstman7]

What a Mature and civilized thread so far. Keep it up sbr. On heat w u One

[JayOne]

What a Mature and civilized thread so far. Keep it up sbr. On heat w u One

Thank you, although I think I'm going to stay away from this game tonight

[JayOne]

Thanks JayOne for your assessment. Thoughts on LAC?

I am leaning Clippers -3. Both teams solid defensively with great point guards who can control the game and hold on to a lead. To me the spurs have been on the road too long, and even if they drop this game it's been a successful trip. Spurs are 5-10 ATS against teams scoring 99 pts a game or more while the clips are 9-8 ATS and and 11-6 SU against teams scoring 99 pts a game or more. Clippers are well rested and at home, anxious to get back on the court. This is the only playoff caliber team the clips will play this week and they will give it everything. Spurs have to travel tonight and play tomorrow.

Lean Clippers -3

[Shipcity]

Im staying away from heat as well. On clips -3. I like most of ur picks so far, every pick we've both been on has won

[JayOne]

Im staying away from heat as well. On clips -3. I like most of ur picks so far, every pick we've both been on has won

Thank you for the feedback. I appreciate it

[JayOne]

Tonight's Play

Clippers -3.5 (-110)

[Spgillydakid]

I'm with you on the heater buddy. Yea its a b2b but they also just had a bunch of time off for the asb. Hard to bet against them right now. It might be a little square but I have been getting paid off on them. I also like the over in the Clipps game a lot. Good Luck.

[bulichm]

LAC+OV

[JayOne]

Also the more I look at this Bulls Heat game, the more it looks like Vegas is going to rob the public here. 80% of the public on the Heat. Heat played pretty poorly yesterday until the 4th quarter. Limited Rest, lots of minutes. Heat are 1-5 ATS as a road favorite of 3 pts or less. 0-3 ATS in a road game when total is between 185 and 189.5 pts (essentially when playing a solid defensive team). Thats 8 of their 13 road losses against the spread and those factors are both in play tonight. Starting to lean Bulls +3. Will post this play closer to game time if I decide to go with it.

Thanks

[JayOne]

I know, I know, it goes against my whole riding the Heat train, but I have been busting spreads open with the Heat and tonight I believe that streak ends. For more info into the pick read the breakdowns above.

2/21/13
Adding

Chicago +3.5


So just to recap, tonight we have Chicago +3.5 and Clippers -3.5.

GL everyone

[JayOne]

Well that was a miserable night.

Chicago +3.5 (-1.1u)
LA Clippers -3.5 (-1.1u)

Anyway, back at it tonight with some plays to be posted later. Record will come around. You will see a high percentage.

YTD 4-5 (-1.4u)

[JayOne]

2/22/13
early leans

Denver -3
Bobcats +6.5
Rockets +2
Golden State +2
Celtics -1

[Shipcity]

I'm on Denver and Houston, GL. I refuse to bet against the spurs after last night, they proved me wrong. And ive been burned way too many times by the bobcats to ever lay money on them again. If i had to pick a side id take the bulls.

[JayOne]

I'm on Denver and Houston, GL. I refuse to bet against the spurs after last night, they proved me wrong. And ive been burned way too many times by the bobcats to ever lay money on them again. If i had to pick a side id take the bulls.

I agree with you on the Cats and your picks. I still might go against the Spurs later. Scared doesn't win.

[JayOne]

2/22/13

Tonight's Plays


Denver -3 LARGE PLAY 3.3U to win 3

Houston -2

Boston -2.5



potentially more to come later.

Thanks

[ABOSSSGAME]

Thoughts on Indiana, OKC, Memphis, and SAS? Sorry for the long list.

[cjw92]

I like the Denver and Boston picks but I would avoid the Houston game tonight.