NBA Season Thread With Matchup Analysis

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 04:53 PM

PLAY 61: Derron Williams OVER 16.5 Points -120 Risk $120 to win $100

One more prop for today. This total is too low. Williams should score more than 20 in this game. He always plays well against the Thunder, going back to his days in Utah. Westbrook is gonna struggle to guard D Will in the pick and roll as Williams is just a little better with the ball. Look for him to take on more of a scoring role tonight with Johnson having a tough matchup himself and Lopez being out.

Edit- Added another 60. 120 to win 100.

**sportfan** · 12-04-12, 04:55 PM

Lakers or Heat today goat?

**mvanja** · 12-04-12, 05:41 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Good question. Maybe Goat started shit with others in other threads? Other than that, guess it's just people wanting to hate, perhaps out of jealousy, or perhaps out of just being mean, which of course a lot of people are. But yeah, I never get it when a guy is just posting thoughts and plays and people come in to tell him off. What's the point?

As we all can see, Goat is on fire, he knows his basketball and he is giving us winners.If U're up for a ride than enjoy and make some money, if not then start your blog, give your picks and talk shit as much as u like and let us make some money. So, Goat man, I want u to know there are lot of us that admire ur work. Keep your pick machine well oiled and don't worry about them...

**goldengreek** · 12-04-12, 06:17 PM

Originally posted by Capybara

Good question. Maybe Goat started shit with others in other threads? Other than that, guess it's just people wanting to hate, perhaps out of jealousy, or perhaps out of just being mean, which of course a lot of people are. But yeah, I never get it when a guy is just posting thoughts and plays and people come in to tell him off. What's the point?

**BMoreBird** · 12-04-12, 06:22 PM

heat should win by 20. gl

**JR007** · 12-04-12, 08:06 PM

Originally posted by 7secondsOrLess

hey does your daddy lb ever lose?

you think I am that stupid, to just exist in one website ????

I follow others beside LB, guys that use statistical modeling for their predictions.....the highest respect any handicapper can have is when the books move the line, after their posts,......" rest assured" Goatmilk is not one of them,

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 08:11 PM

PLAY 62: MIAMI -10.5 2ND HALF -110 (RISK $110 TO WIN $100) Down 6 at the half.

Miami playing very sloppy defensively. They are on cruise control right now. Look for them to clamp down defensively in the 2nd half. I expect Miami to still win this game by 10.

**wguan2** · 12-04-12, 08:20 PM

Originally posted by JR007

you think I am that stupid, to just exist in one website ????

I follow others beside LB, guys that use statistical modeling for their predictions.....the highest respect any handicapper can have is when the books move the line, after their posts,......" rest assured" Goatmilk is not one of them,

Please share with us these cappers who are capable of moving book lines lol. Please. I would like to know.

**Tim Gerry Mander** · 12-04-12, 08:34 PM

Wade with 21 points, 6 minutes into 3rd qtr

Nice hit Goat

**16johnnymac** · 12-04-12, 08:38 PM

I hope so Goat I have them in my play today $&$$

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 62: MIAMI -10.5 2ND HALF -110 (RISK $110 TO WIN $100) Down 6 at the half.

Miami playing very sloppy defensively. They are on cruise control right now. Look for them to clamp down defensively in the 2nd half. I expect Miami to still win this game by 10.

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 09:12 PM

PLAY 63: HOUSTON/LAKERS OVER 107 SECOND HALF -105 RISK $105 TO WIN $100 (HERITAGE)

Game pace is insane in this game.

**BMoreBird** · 12-04-12, 09:13 PM

down 4 with 2 min to go. i hope miami is humiliated and loses.... or ot

**mikeyplata** · 12-04-12, 09:17 PM

Originally posted by BMoreBird

down 4 with 2 min to go. i hope miami is humiliated and loses.... or ot

OT would be nice. i'm a heat fan and i still haven't won any bet i've placed favoring them except for when they were the dog against okc last year

**Jago2008** · 12-04-12, 09:22 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 63: HOUSTON/LAKERS OVER 107 SECOND HALF -105 RISK $105 TO WIN $100 (HERITAGE)

Game pace is insane in this game.

Goat what do you think about LAL over 51.5 seems reasonable. LAL taking every 3 opportunity with impunity under this new system.

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 09:27 PM

Originally posted by BMoreBird

down 4 with 2 min to go. i hope miami is humiliated and loses.... or ot

Yeah they deserve to lose. It's all good these other plays will hit.

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

Goat what do you think about LAL over 51.5 seems reasonable. LAL taking every 3 opportunity with impunity under this new system.

sorry the 2nd half already started.

**Jago2008** · 12-04-12, 09:32 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

sorry the 2nd half already started.

No worries man I posted too late anyway. Twas' watching the Heat collapse. Wizards have beat those fools 3 times in a row now.

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 09:35 PM

Originally posted by Jago2008

No worries man I posted too late anyway. Twas' watching the Heat collapse. Wizards have beat those fools 3 times in a row now.

Lebron shot 3 fts. But of course people will think he played well since he got a triple double. Miami is not gonna win games against any team shooting only 15 fts. Everyone in the NBA can play. There's only 400 guys in the league for a reason.

**t-wizzle** · 12-04-12, 09:39 PM

You can't help yourself with these Heat bets can you?

**Jago2008** · 12-04-12, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

Lebron shot 3 fts. But of course people will think he played well since he got a triple double. Miami is not gonna win games against any team shooting only 15 fts. Everyone in the NBA can play. There's only 400 guys in the league for a reason.

Well said, furthermore I think people need to give the Wizards some credit tonight, they got to the free throw line, initially were hitting close to 60% of their shots, including from beyond-the-arc. I don't care which team you are, but that's the recipe for winning on any given night.

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 11:06 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

You can't help yourself with these Heat bets can you?

wizzle should i play more player props? seems like you can expose books on props. I've never been a guy to play props but they kind of go hand in hand with matchup analysis.

**t-wizzle** · 12-04-12, 11:09 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

wizzle should i play more player props? seems like you can expose books on props. I've never been a guy to play props but they kind of go hand in hand with matchup analysis.

Yea but I would avoid laying big juice. No more than -115 or so. Take rebounding props for other teams' big men against the sixers lol.

**Goat Milk** · 12-04-12, 11:27 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

Yea but I would avoid laying big juice. No more than -115 or so. Take rebounding props for other teams' big men against the sixers lol.

i'll keep that in mind. Tomorrow is the best slate of games i've seen all year.

**t-wizzle** · 12-04-12, 11:28 PM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

i'll keep that in mind. Tomorrow is the best slate of games i've seen all year.

I like Denver +1 and Utah -8.5

**Catchn_Picks** · 12-04-12, 11:54 PM

Congrats Goat...great props

**t-wizzle** · 12-04-12, 11:58 PM

Originally posted by t-wizzle

I like Denver +1 and Utah -8.5

Edit

**JayDeezy** · 12-05-12, 12:10 AM

what book are you guys using for these props wagers?? my book doesn't carry them, would like to get in on the action... thnx

**Goat Milk** · 12-05-12, 12:18 AM

Originally posted by JayDeezy

what book are you guys using for these props wagers?? my book doesn't carry them, would like to get in on the action... thnx

Jay, whenever I post a play, if I don't post the book next to it, that means it's a local play. On the prop plays today pretty sure I posted the book but if I didn't it was Heritage.

**MexicanStallion** · 12-05-12, 01:23 AM

Originally posted by daimoshokage

MexicanStallion = GoatShit's bitch?

He asked if somebody could keep his record and he offered some points, so I am helping him out. It takes 5 Minutes.

**MexicanStallion** · 12-05-12, 01:33 AM

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 59: MIAMI HEAT -10 -103 @ Washington Risk $103 to win $100 (Heritage)

Line is 11 with my local. I'm not doing a writeup for this game. Miami should win this game easily.

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 60: D. WADE OVER 20.5 POINTS -120 Risk $60 to win $50

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 61: Derron Williams OVER 16.5 Points -120 Risk $120 to win $100

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 62: MIAMI -10.5 2ND HALF -110 (RISK $110 TO WIN $100) Down 6 at the half.

Originally posted by Goat Milk

PLAY 63: HOUSTON/LAKERS OVER 107 SECOND HALF -105 RISK $105 TO WIN $100 (HERITAGE)

December 4th
3-2 ($+37.00)

NBA Season
40-22-1 ($2361.75)

Spreads: 16-10-1 ($560.75)
Moneylines: 10-3 ($807.50)
Totals: 1-0 ($100.00)
Halves: 6-7 (-$12.50)
Parlays: 4-0 ($851.00)
Props: 2-0 ($150.00)
TT: 1-2 (-$95.00)

**Lctham** · 12-05-12, 02:56 AM

mexican, can you color the winning/losing bets? cheers

**lakerboy** · 12-05-12, 04:26 AM

great job on the spreads.

i dont count moneylines. i could go 75% doing those

**mvanja** · 12-05-12, 01:50 PM

Goat what do u think about Minesota + 6, they played nice last night but without Rubio, Kirilenko and Roy, I'm a bit scared they can play another game like that. On the other side Boston is so ?????? team.

**Goat Milk** · 12-05-12, 03:15 PM

Originally posted by lakerboy

great job on the spreads.

i dont count moneylines. i could go 75% doing those

there -150 mls or lower.

**Goat Milk** · 12-05-12, 03:16 PM

Originally posted by mvanja

Goat what do u think about Minesota + 6, they played nice last night but without Rubio, Kirilenko and Roy, I'm a bit scared they can play another game like that. On the other side Boston is so ?????? team.

Is Rondo playing?