Sando where do you see St George finishing? They keep racking up the wins.
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AFL
Western Bulldogs v Collingwood
2* Western Bulldogs -12.5Comment -
Good test for the Magpies here. I keep hearing the experts say that the final 8 is already locked, but I think at least one of Collingwood and Richmond make a run and sneak in. I like the Pies today, straight up and at the +12.5.Comment -
Shit I thought I had already posted Eels -11.5, must have forgotten & line has moved to -12.5. No matter - Eels by plenty...
2* Eels 13+ ($1.92 Everywhere)Comment -
In my opinion, barely a 2% chance they make the 8. Worst forward pack in the league IMO (bar the Knights), Widdop having career worst season in the halves (although I do rate Benji as NOT washed up & still a valuable pivot) and the backline is average at best, especially with Dugan now injured (again). One shining light is Aitken - I'm telling you now this kid is a genuine star centre in the making!Comment -
My thoughts on Warriors/OKC game 7. Full preview & play...
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Origin I
1.5* NSW 1-12 ($2.70 Sportsbet)
1* Under 15.5 1st H (William Hill - Under 14.5 is fine as well)
Considering the non stop rain and the history of Origin (especially game 1's) then the full game under looks a solid bet as well, even though it is at an insanely low 30 (30.5 at a couple of places). I like NSW in a low scoring affair. The weather helps NSW and their monstrous forward pack and also traditionally less expansive game plan than QLD. This is being reflected in the odds as late money swings favouritism back in NSW's favour. Also QLD for all their dominance has a poor record in NSW & the Blues have won 4 of the last 6 at home.
Other bets I like...
Under 30
Either team by less than 7 ($2.40 Sportsbet - actually called "any other result" in the tri bet 6.5 market)
Cordner - Man of the Match - Outstanding form since returning from injury and forwards have a strong history of winning MOM awards at origin level. (Reynolds or Maloney would be second choice)
Ferguson 1st Try scorer ($13 Ladbrokes) - Because NSW will of course target the inexperienced left edge of O'Neill & Gagai for QLD. Jennings would be my 2nd choice.
Oates - Anytime try scorer. ($2.25 Sportsbet) That's what he does. Prolific try scorer. Looks very well set up playing outside Inglis & Boyd.Comment -
It's Origin time! Where the hell have all the Aussies gone????Comment -
Go the blues!! Good luck on your bets!Comment -
Think NSW are done for the seriesComment -
Worst origin match I have seen in a long time.Horrible attack from both sidesComment -
Under was the play. Was the man of Mtch a surprise. I had Darius BoydComment -
Boyd was the best player on the field, no doubt. he was literally the difference between winning and losing. I thought Cordner was the best for NSW; a shame they lost because I had him at $29 for man of match.
I'm going down to NSW for game III. I hope it's not a dead rubber, booked the damn trip 4 months ago, but jeez it's hard to win in QLD. Every year NSW has the better team on paper, but QLD wins anyway, because they have JT, Cronk & Smith, all expert game managers who know how to get shit done when it counts.
As a semi professional sports bettor I have gotten pretty good at keeping my emotions out of handicapping, but if there is one area where I have always struggled it's in Origin. I just can't deny my genuine and deep rooted hate for QLD and the grubs (Slater, Smith, Myles, Thaiday, Parker, Hodges) that pull on that damn jersey. To be fair NSW have plenty of grubs as well (Bird, J. Reynolds, Ennis & Gallen).Comment -
Thought it was a great Origin, tough hard, low scoring yes, but one heck of a game.
News out of the NRL today, thoughts Sando??
I dont believe it. Is it right someone bet $500K on Souths winning by less than eight?Comment -
Supposedly southwest by over 8. Which books in Australia take 500k on a game though. Sportsbet were struggling to take some of my bets
any thought on swans v Suns under. Total now down to 130. I have a few bets in at higher but thinking of more.Comment -
William Hill take 6 figure bets no problems. Not by me obviously, i'm only small time. But i know people who do bet large. One guy recently got 100K down on the French Open with W. Hill, zero dramas...
Oh and yeah the weather is supposed to be insane for Gold Coast v Sydney. 100% precipitation expected by 1st bounce & thunderstormsComment -
NRL Friday Night Football
Canberra v Manly
2* Canberra -5.5
Canberra have officially just added Junior Paulo from Parra to what was already the best pack in the NRL (yes better than Canterbury & Cronulla), now it's just ridiculous when you consider they have Soliola, Vaughn & probably Paulo coming off the bench, all gun forwards, and they also have Fensom to come back into the squad. Manly's pack is horrible, arguably only Newcastle (maybe St George) is worse. They do have a gun backline, but so do the raiders who have the most lethal right edge in the comp with Leilua & Rapana. Raiders are at home and in good form & even though they are inconsistent, they have won two in a row & showed plenty of backbone & composure to come back against the doggies last week. Raiders by 13+ but I'm more than happy to take the line of less than a converted try. Strong lean towards over 39.5 as well.Comment -
Nice start to the w/e with the easy winner on the Raiders last night.
Can only post plays a few at a time because very busy this w/e.
Also will certainly have a few plays on UFC 199 tomorrow (have been killing MMA this year).
AFL
Hawthorn v Melbourne
1* Melbourne 1st H +14.5 (Pinnacle)
Carlton v Brisbane
1* Carlton -26.5 (William Hill)Comment -
GL on your plays SandoComment -
Act of God like weather going down on the Gold Coast at the moment. There is talk the game won't even go ahead which is almost unheard of...Comment -
Most of the games I really like in both AFL & NRL are tomorrow. Some big plays tomorrow.
NRL
Melbourne v Penrith
1* Penrith +4
1* Penrith ML ($2.55 Ladbrokes)
NZ v Brisbane
1.5* Brisbane -4 (Sportsbet, Luxbet)
1* Over 41.5 (Ladbrokes, Bet 365, Over 42 at Sportsbet)
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Why Penrith Sando???Comment -
Cronk is out & Smith is backing up from Wed. Unlike the Panthers who are backing up (Moylan & Mansour) Smith is old now & surely won't be at his best. I love Wallace at hooker & Peachey in the half's. The halves tend to be Panthers weakness & I think Peachy gives them a lot more creative spark in the halves, while Wallace has been really good when he played hooker, certainly more disciplined & less errors than Segeyaro. Storms forward pack has been great but they are pretty big & straight running & I think Cartwright, Campbell-Gillard & Peachy can do some serious damage with their foot work & off the cuff play, but they also have size in latimore, Merrin, Matagi, etc to battle Melbournes big forwards. Plus they just picked up another promising young lad in Grevsmuhl from Souths. Penrith have a great young forward pack, and a clearly superior back line. Melbourne has been playing great, but way above their talent level. They are simply not that talented without Slater & Chambers, but they are so smart, disciplined, expert game managers with Bellamy, Smith & Cronk. No Cronk tonight however & as I said Smith isn't young anymore. Penrith has been playing below their level, they are soooo talented but very young and often go completely off the boil for long periods (Titans game). Once they finally get things together over the next year or two (they recruit so well so will continue to improve) they will be a serious premiership threat. Timing & momentum are a big part of my handicapping style & I see Penrith on the rise & Melbourne on the decline this week. (Quick & messy write up because don't have much time tonight)Comment -
Good call on the Cowboys. I played them as well. Currently praying the 4th qtr in Gold Coast Suns game does not go over the 143 ...Comment
