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Like the Portland play. Expect them to break out of their funk and get the W tonight.Comment -
I'm on board too. Also have Nets -6. I like the Spurs -1 on the road against the Lakers without Nash and Blake but I just cant get myself to bet against the Lakers. Oh well...Comment -
Bobcats -1
The majority of love in this game both in the line movement and talk on the various forum's is for the wizards, how they are hungry for a win and how they would have circled this game. Well Washington isn't the only team that will have circled this game. After last year's horror season it looks like Charlotte actually has some nice pieces to build around and I like what I have seen from them so far, hustling and fighting, the attitude of the team in general appears very positive. Any talk of a letdown spot after the big win over the Mavis's is crazy. The Heat and the Lakers have "letdown" spots, a young hungry team like the bobcats does not, every win is to be treasured and in a home game against a very beatable opponent I expect them to at least match Washington's intensity. The wiz are still without their best players in Wall and Nene although they have put up some solid performances in close losses to the C's and the Pacers, in fact despite starting 0-5 they haven't looked that bad fielding a ragtag group of players. A lot of stats are also against the bobcats having lost The last 5 against the wiz and not having recorded back 2 back victories since the end of the 2010-11 season, however this is probably the strongest bobcats team we have seen since "Crash" Wallace left and without Wall and Nene is the weakest line-up Washington has fielded in recent times. The wiz are also struggling to score and have Ppg and fg% both near the bottome of the league and if the game is close in the 4th I can see the Bobcats pulling away as the Wiz have been terrible in 4th quarters this year, racking up the turnovers and shooting a woeful 36% from the field. I have caught a bit of action from most bobcats games and while Many people have this game marked down as a coin flip and would therefore think the value (if any) lies with Washington but I have been impressed with the support the home crowd is showing this young team and they have been pretty good at home beating the Pacers in their opener and then getting sucked into a Phoenix style shoot out against the Suns where the game was never out of reach but they just couldn't quite get there in the end. MKG is showing signs he is going to be a force in this league, Ramon Sessions has been getting to the basket and adding a nice spark off the bench and while Ben Gordon may be over paid and even over-rated, it is still surely only a matter of time before he finds his range on that sweet mid-range j and starts adding some extra offensive potency off the bench. I capped this game at -3.5 for the Bobcats and while I may be off on this one, I am going to back my instincts (and research) and roll with for 1.5x
Despite their being more than capable Back court defenders in this game I am expecting a relatively free flowing and high scoring affair and if not for missing the early O/U line of 188, would probably have placed a larger value. Still some decent value at 190 but we'll lower the units accordingly. Line movement has been in strong support of the over in this match since markets were released.
Knicks -7
un-fortunately I tossed this game around for too long and we missed the early -6 line that a lot have jumped on. The good news is That NY doesn't mess around, they have started 4-0 and have crushed every opponent, winning by at least 10 every game. The Knicks have been flat out balling on both ends of the court currently ranked #1 in both ppg and points allowed. Yes everyone knows they can score but there defensive intensity has been both surprising and pleasing (and this is without their best defender in Schumpert). Orlando started the season surprisingly well but have come back down to earth Losing 4 straight with some nasty score lines along the way. They are struggling with depth as it is and with no Turkoglu, Harrington and most likely Nelson they are not going to find the going easy against a fairly deep NY team. In a bench v bench situation I could see things getting very ugly for the Magic. Truth be told I expect the magic to be battling Detroit and Washington at the wrong end of the ladder this season, they simply don't have enough talent on the roster.
My theory on the Knicks is that we should Be riding them now while they are red hot at least until the bubble bursts which sadly I predict may be the case when A'mare returns in late Dec/early Jan? Who knows how that will affect the dynamic of this current group however that is a story for another day.
Portland +3 and m/l
Yes we got burned on the Frail-Blazers last night however I think that sets us up nicely tonight. Let's just assume for a second the Blazers won their last 2 games against Spurs and Hawks (both in the balance late in the 4th and were very winnable) and were sitting on 4-3 instead of 2-5. What do you think the line would be tonight at Sacramento? Probably Blazers -2 to -4? Instead we are getting 3 points against a team playing without their best and most important player in Cousins. Kings have not been impressive at home with narrow 2 point wins over weak teams in Detroit and G/S and a double digit loss to the Spurs. Llilard is a huge talent and like most rookies is prone to inconsistent play while he adjusts to the speed and intensity of nba ball, I would be surprised to see him have another poor night. Aldridge is in great form and the loss of Cousins leaves Sacramento rather under sized and look at the trouble they were in once Thompson got in foul trouble aginst the Lakers. Of course blazers are nowhere near as big as LA, however it is still relevant. We are in the unusual position where the Blazers have a far superior starting line up but a clearly inferior bench. I think the Blazers bounce back hard tonight against a depleted Kings team and snap their run of poor form, I expect them to win but we'll take the points as well.Last edited by sando; 11-13-12, 05:58 PM.Comment -
Sando u got any NBA plays for tonight?Comment -
Adding another 0.5 units on the NY Knicks -7 (-105) for a total of 2.5 Units in play on the Knicks -7 @ Orlando. Do not want to edit my original post as it is too close to game time. Feeling good about the Knicks continuing their roll tonight and am not expecting Nelson to suit up for the Magic which will further stretch their depth.Comment -
good luck today sando. pretty ballsy to touch the kitties gameComment -
Adding 1 last play. Game time is in 45 minutes, sorry guys would never normally add a play this late but I have been struggling for time today.
Toronto @ Indiana
Over 185.5 (-108 Pinnacle) 1x
No time for a write up got to get the pick out quick, I came up with a line of around 190 (have put zero factor in Toronto's back 2 back) and after comparing it against other lines (Accuscore rates this O/U as 192 - fair line). Seems to be a lot of tout support for the under which is fine with me as I always prefer to be on the minority side of a pick.Comment -
Let's cash these Knicks sando, public is following the same thought process I think but that doesn't worry me - matchups dont lie and this is a white wash. I hope JJ and Affalo stay in check and we should be sweet here. I cant lie though I'll be cursing the screen when we're up 13 in the 4th and Wallace is on bricking 3's and the cover is slowing evaporating. When making my final decisions this morning I was inches away from pulling the trigger on a 1x play on the Wizards, so I hope that I am wrong and you cash here. I see this as a massive let down spot for the Bobcats, it will be interesting to see if they can string back to back wins together. Portland should get the win, i've been burned on their unpredictability and crap bench though so i stayed away, one of my mistakes last season was too many plays i'm trying to be disciplined! Absolutely love the over in Indiana, you' expect Toronto rotations on D to be sloppy and slower than usual, I hope Hill/West get hot.Comment -
On the Raptors UNDER as well.. in normal circumstances this game should go well OVER 185.
Think too much emphasis is being placed on the BTB and OTComment -
I posted a lean on the over for this play as well minutes before you posted.
Only thing that concerns me is if Toronto keeps up and puts up it's share of points. Triple OT and traveling from Utah to Indiana obviously will take it's toll. Obviously this would relate to less of a defensive effort from the Raptors in order to use their energy on the offensive end but I'm worried the collapse 2nd half and fail to put up their share of points to get us the over.
Regardless it was a strong lean of mine and I feel as if it's the correct side, personally, so I hope you cashComment -
Knicks, never in doubt baby BOOM!Comment -
Yeah. glad the knicks pulled it out in the 4th. the over plays were ridiculously off today. oh well, as long as we are + on the day, it will be a good day. the raptors scored 5 points in the 4th and won... crazy!Comment -
had the knicks & bobcats, thanks Sando. Looking forward to the Portland game.Comment -
After your ultra sharp analysis on the hawks/blazers game the other day I am more than interested any time you wish to post analysis in this thread Mr. Rick, the more NBA heads the better.
Ps - how's that for karma, you swing me 500 sbr points the other day and then you get 1000 from secretstash. What was that all about mate?Comment -
i'm also in the Blazers bandwagon
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I have a long ways to go before I'm sharp in terms of investing in NBA. I'm an avid fan and always played basketball growing up, dreaming of playing professionally, etc. I never approached NBA from an investing standpoint until I found this board. I took a lot of what I know about the game, players, etc. and then learned a ton from LTA (an amazing capper who's no longer present on the boards at this time).
I'll gladly add input to your thread whenever possibly. I enjoy threads with an active exchange of ideas and analysis and you obviously know your stuff.
With regards to the points. It was a loan that I made and he gave it back, not a gift =)Comment -
go blazers!Comment -
Damn, and I started to parlay Spurs -1 over 190. Tough game either way thoughComment -
Great call on the Blazers. No better feeling than being on the right side of a blowout!
Lakers should have had this one but they let the Spurs hang around and take it in the end.Comment -
Great bounce back day for us boys 4-2 today, got busted out on my 2 totals but we swept the ATS & m/l picks.
Daimoshokage check in......? I know your looking haha.
NBA
4-2 today +4.58 Units
NBA YTD 37-18-4 (+24.54 Units) 67.2%
(NBA ATS 29-14-2 YTD)
(NBA totals 8-4-2 YTD)
Tennis YTD 31-25-4 (+17.16 Units) 55.3%
See you tomorrow...Last edited by sando; 11-14-12, 01:23 AM.Comment -
nice way to bounce back sando, keep grindingComment -
Excellent result cheers SandoComment -
nice mate. You're killing it.Just make sure you are careful on Friday Saturday and Sunday. Think Sharp!Comment -
tough ones on the totals but the 4-0 sweep more than makes up for it. nicely done mate.Comment -
Bobcats -1, Knicks -7, Portland +3 and m/l. Spot on really good work.Comment -
Great job, very impressiveComment -
Way to go Sando! It is extremely impressive how easily you seem to be able to disassociate all emotion from gambling. Hopefully that will rub off on me.Comment -
Great hit sando! Keep up the good work!Comment -
Keep it up!
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Nice call on the bobcats.Comment
