Leans for Friday 11/13/08

[2qwik]

PC and circle of trust ....

To good of winning percentage to pass up on. On the NO -7 pretty hard and some on the Orlando. I have to back up the CK Mafia gang just like I did back in coverexperts until all the BS started with the mods.

[IrwinFletcher]

Yeah.. the more I look at that Orl/Dal game the more I'm likin' the under..

And I think Wang is right on the money with Orl in the first half...

So nice to have some productive discussion goin on again.. I can't tell you what a clusterfcuk the mains across town have become.. bunch of fcuking idiots.

[wangichu]

btw... good call on that denver game yesterday CK... saved me some money, kinda wish i had played them 1st half like i was tossing around, but fading cleveland at the half is risky business... anyways... can't believe that the nugs are getting the heavy public money here... they may have been playing ok ball coming into yesterday, but after being beaten up by and physical east conference squad, i couldn't imagine them covering a 10 pt spread against the game's elite, yet the money keeps pouring in on them... maybe ppl think that the C's aren't for real just because the hawks put a game on them. oh well... i'll take advantage of that here... spread's down to 9.5, i'm going to sit on it for a bit, then buy the hook and saddle up

[cocknocker]

2qwik,

What's up my brotha? Long time no hear. How'd you end up over here? It's good to see over here. Hit me up on my personal age and let me know what's been going on with ya!

I am waiting on BigMoneyMan to let meknow where the sharp money is on the Orlando and Dallas game. Wangichu is a nay so far, IrwinFletcher likes the over, Sports seems to like it, and I think maddog likes it, so I have mixed results on it. In order for it to become a board play we have to get a majority in order to play it. I have seen many valid points. Orlando is BigMoney's wheel house, so he knows that team better than any of us. But he is unbiased like he should be.

Wang

on Atlanta, you know i hate 1st quarter bets unless it's offered at +100, but your point is valid. The Hawks are for real, and I don't think that the linesmaker has gotten a solid feel for their performance level. I know that they made me a believer the hard way, by taking $750.00 from me against Boston the other day.

As for me, I see no reason to back up off of my Boston play for the night, as Boston is still the minority with bettors and the line has stood as stiff as a donkey erection. I thought that Boston would be a public play so i was a little cautious but obviously their lack of covers this year has people taking off the oven mitts. Me too, but this is just a great spot for them to get a double digit win against a team on a back to back situation after playing a tough playoff tested Cleveland team. The Nuggets faltered down the stretch. Some interesting numbers: Boston gives up a stingy 88 points per contest, and Denver gives up 100. With tired legs, Denver may give up more than that. I do think that they will hang around in the 1st half with all of their star power, but one look at their bench andi see that they don't have a proven scorer on it. Kenyon Martin could guard KG, but only for so long. KG is a beast, and will dominate come the 2nd half. They aren't the champs for nothing. I still have yet to see a game this year where a team gets 35 free throws to the other team's 9. The referees love them at home.

I can't believe that the Pistons of all teams is getting a scrub spread even if it is the Lakers. They haven't caught those kind of points since the 2002 season against the Lakers. I will have to take them in the 1st half with carry-over working in their favor. This is the Lakers first game since their long road trip, and after hearing the wives fussing and playing with the kids, and all, I think the overall number is too high as well especially against a championship caliber team. i could see a spread like that if they were playing Oklahoma City, not the Pistons. They have too much pride to get blown out again in a two week span (Boston beat them by 18). In the last two times they have lost 1st half spreads, they were the favorites, now they are the underdog and not expected to win.

[maddogmadden86]

who likes the kings +3 the suns wont have nash or barbosa and someone else slips my mind as i \m writing lol

[maddogmadden86]

scratch that play lol

[cocknocker]

All that they need is Stoudamire, the rest will take care of its'self. I say that the Suns blow them out anyway. Nash, Barbosa, and Barnes are all out for Phoenix. That just means more of Raja Bell, Grant Hill, Stoudamire, Diaw, and O'Neal. I think Phoenix still gets it done. The may be tired as hell at the end, but they are still 3 points better than Sacramento even with the suspensions and players on leave.

Oh yeah, I also like the Pistons so much that i am making teeny weeny plays on the moneylines for each and every quarter for them as well as for the 1st half and game. This is a nightridah thing. I am not recommending anyone else do this as I am using an entirely seperate account to do it on and it is not an official play

[MoneySportsGuy]

yeah I like the Suns at -3 that line was -7 so good value in Suns

[maddogmadden86]

true that CK so what is your final card for tonight, did u hear from big money yet?

[MoneySportsGuy]

ck,

are you doing any quarter and half bets today? that Detroit 1H looks good to me have not played it yet though

[cocknocker]

maddog

New Orleans-7
Boston-10
Detroit 1st half +5.5

MoneySports, I tailed you on your parlay and teaser. You can't hide anything from me!

[Alex68]

so no go on Orlando?

[MoneySportsGuy]

ck

fine with me man, better even more when we both cash in tonight!

goodluck on your plays!

[cocknocker]

No go on Orlando. The Celtics are starting off better than I had expected. I am an avid believer in the carry-over effect, and I fully expect for Denver to stay close in the 1st half and maybe even lead going in, before the legs give out in the 2nd half. The Celtics have the deeper team by far. But I was kind of hoping that they would come out a little flatter to sweeten the halftime line. Oh well...

At any rate, I might as well do the half numbers now

Boston home defense
20.40 3rd quarter
22.80 4th quarter

Denver road defense
23.60 3rd quarter
23.40 4th quarter

3.8 or 4 point advantage Celtics

Boston home offense
22.60 3rd quarter
27.40 4th quarter


Denver road offense
24.40 3rd quarter
25.60 4th quarter

Push no advantage both average 50 points, but the 4th quarter is where the numbers are

Boston scores 27.40 and only gives up 22.80 a 4.5 differential
Denver scores 25.60 and only gives up 23.40 a 2.2 differential

So Boston enjoys a 2.5 edge for the 4th quarter

Boston enjoys a 4 point defensive edge overall in the 2nd half

[NYCKEV]

Wow the D'antoni Knicks looking good with 68 points at thehalf!

[BigMoneyMan]

Ok I was trying to post in here at 5.00 but site was down. Spoke to CK and like everything except Det and NO for the game. My plays today are Orlando, Boston, Portland 1st half. I have been waiting since Wed for Portland. Odom is going to prove something tonight but will get tired in the second half. I will wait until the half look at the stats and take NO in the second. I will not be rolling with Det. LA is heads and shoulders above the rest in the NBA bar none. Detroit's age and the fact that Iverson has not gelled with the team yet will show tonight. GL as always

[BigMoneyMan]

Hey ck check and see what odds we can get for LA to win the Championship. Definitely worth a G if more that +700

[MoneySportsGuy]

BigMoney

glad it wasnt just me I couldnt log in for about an hour or so thought I was only one with problem getting on.

[MoneySportsGuy]

NYC

yeah NY is pouring it on, hopefully they will burn out and have at least OKC to get back in to cover

[oso]

Mafia- do we pound the 2nd half celts -8 or hornets-6?

[cocknocker]

No 2nd halves for me tonight.

I like the position that I am in on both games. The Celtics have an -8 -120 spread for the second half, which is good, as it means that the linesmaker is trying to steer bettors toward Denver. And the Hornets are -6, which for PC Players is a great thing because despite the lead that Portland has, the linemaker thoroughly feels that they will make their usual and customary second half surge. Good luck fellers. I am going to hit the local tavern in Oakland and watch the Detroit game from there.

[cocknocker]

As far as the strength of second half bets is concerned, I would put more stock in the Hornets 2nd half, as I already know how they play synergy wise

[MoneySportsGuy]

I hope Portland can still keep it up and cover tonight would be great especially if OKC can cover vs NY with a strong 4th quarter.

[Alex68]

That 3 pointer by Roy killed us. I bought a point so I had NO at -6.
Hope u have something good for tomorrow CK.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Ouch Alex, I myself had Portland +7

Goodluck tomorrow in your plays

[BigMoneyMan]

Well so far 3-1. I couldn't have called the NO game better. Boston was a fning Nightmare. I'm looking for one last BIG BET LA second half because of the points made earlier. I will be back to tell you if its a play but right now I am thinking of taking the 2 gs I'm up and taking it.

[BigMoneyMan]

there is nothing that will get me off LA second half GL

[MoneySportsGuy]

BigMoney

what about the OVER at 98.5? looks good to me

[Alex68]

Laker & over 2h?

[MoneySportsGuy]

got the OVER 98.5 for 2H

[Alex68]

Going w/ Big Money & MoneySports.

[MoneySportsGuy]

Lets cash that OVER Alex!

[Alex68]

That was a lucky over. Thanks MoneySports.

[MoneySportsGuy]

OVER is an....OVER

I had fun cashing it! goodluck tomorrow