Leans for Friday 11/13/08

johnnymapalo · 11-14-08, 02:05 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I like Phoenix -6.5

tomorrow against Sacramento. The Kings are coming off of an upsetwin against the Clips, and Phoenix is coming in off an embarrasing defeat at home to the Rockets. Phoenix is 9-1 straight up against the Kings and 7-3 ats in their last 10 contests. I have a feeling that the line will be 7 when I get up tomorrow, but it is justifiably so.

The PC Play will be announced in the morning. I have tallied up the losses over the past couple of days and I am going to get it all back and then some. I never play a PC Play for anything less than 2 dimes.

See everyone in the morning.

I don't know man, but wid a name like "Cocknocker" I just can't take your seriously. Sh!t, I don't even like typing your name as it makes me feel gay. Please don't create an avatar describing your name. I'm begging you!!!

The_Kid · 11-14-08, 02:26 AM

I don't think you should consider the Kings victory an "upset." IMO, the Clippers should have never been favored by that big of a margin anyways.

I do enjoy reading your write-ups though. Keep it up man

MoneyMaker6 · 11-14-08, 02:28 AM

with u on this one

showtime2000 · 11-14-08, 08:52 AM

Let's get it all back Ck. Let's avenge the last couple of days!

head_strong · 11-14-08, 09:02 AM

BigMoneyMan · 11-14-08, 09:38 AM

Well the final link in the CK Mafia is in the house. Thats right ladies HEEES BACK I have been berated over the last few days by the man to get in here. I will post as usual about two hours before the games start. Good to see everyone and hope all is going well.

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 09:40 AM

I am scrapping the Phoenix play and going for the PC Play and also taking one of the teams responsible for stripping me of $750.00 the other day, which is Boston-10.

The Nuggets are in the last game of their east coast swing, and after playing a tough Cleveland team last night in Cleveland, they must now face an even tougher defensive team in Boston, a team which has been on a long homestand but dos not have a blowout win in the homestand with only a 7 and a 1 point win over Toronto and Atlanta respectively. They are going to cover in one of these games and this one might as well be it.

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 10:08 AM

BigMoneyMan, my brother from another! You are just in time for the PC Play.

The New Orleans Hornets are the NBA's media darlings from last year, and justifiably so. They are lights out at home and one of the NBA's best 2nd half teams. They are coming off of a rare home loss to the mighty Lakers. But never fret, as Portland comes to town after successfully showing that they are for real on this road trip. Thi is however their last game of the road trip, and it comes against a team that they have had very little success against that is also in a foul mood. Portland is 0-5 straight up and ats in New Orleans, and the size of the spread has never mattered. New orleans has beaten them by an average of 14.5 points. Early returns show that the public is drinking the Portland kool aid 70% to 30% in their favor. With numbers like that, the spread naturally should go down, and land somewhere around 7 or so. But it doesn't matter. This is a PC Play, and I am going to make up for the 2 dimes or so I donated to the books with Dallas, Boston, and Miami. It's Friday, the lights are on, the camera's in place, and New Orleans is about to punish the Blazers simply for being there. That's the PC Play, boys. Let's get it. So here's my playbook for the day.

New Orleans-7 (projected with public donations) PC Play
Boston-10
Detroit 1st half +5.5

Look for me to take the Pistons 1st half against the Lakers later with the carry over effect working in their favor. I will pound that one hard, as Detroit plays defense too well to be catching scrub team points against any team in the NBA. Iverson just won't let them go down like that.

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 10:23 AM

Ladies and Gentlemen,

A man who needs no introduction has just joined the board. A legend in his own time and our minds. A true student of the game who provides analytical expertise and sharp situational skills. SBR Forums, out of the sunny state of Florida I give you BigMoneyMan!

Thank you for finding your way over to SBR my man. We are almost complete on the Circle of Trust gang. We just need for Nightridah to get back from vacation. Did he tell you about his "peanuts" 80 bets a day thing (taking all of the undefeated trends for $20.00 apiece) I tried it the other day and went like 44 and 18. That stuff really works (well at least that day it did), but I am going to have to open a seperate account to do it on. It's too much action for me, but if it works, hey...I'll try anything once. He's in Jamaica right now, homes. When he gets back I'm gonna fire it up for a solid week and see what happens.

BTW, what do you like today?

mundane · 11-14-08, 10:35 AM

what does PC (play) stands for?

welcome to SBR. btw what made u guyz come over? i think it's safe to assume that u guyz were from somewhere else. did u guyz got banished for making bold predictions and actually was and is beating the books?

maddogmadden86 · 11-14-08, 10:38 AM

whats good bigmoney welcome back kid, lets do this ish and make some money tonight i love boston as well and the hornets havent gottena chance to look into much about the other games will be back later i cant wait for knightridah to come back and finish the missing link hes the man

showtime2000 · 11-14-08, 10:45 AM

Welcome, Welcome, BigMoneyMan.

Hey Ck, a little song and dance to welcome BigMoney!

"big time, I'm on my way-I'm making it,
big time, I've got to make it show yeah.
big time, so much larger than life, big time
I'm going to watch it growing, big time"

Really liking your New Orleans play, line opened at -8 and dropped to -7. Keep on dropping!!!!!!

iladelcat · 11-14-08, 10:54 AM

Hmm and i missing something....Rockets at 5.5 fav against the spurs who are offensively challenged to say the least....No Parker...No Ginobili.....Im loving the Rockets on this one fellas!

oso · 11-14-08, 11:37 AM

CK should we wait until game to play the Hornets? Will the line keep dropping? Can we get double the pleasure by playing the 1st half as well? I think after the Lakers they will come out fired up!

MoneySportsGuy · 11-14-08, 11:45 AM

Well I had Portland +8 as solid play, so going to do more research on that.

I like Phx as well at first glance, going 7-2ATS last 9 but SAC is 14-3 ATS last 17 vs West Conf so interesting to see if that line changes

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 12:18 PM

Oso,

If the line drops to 7, which I think it will, I think tht that is the magic number, as it is half of what they normally beat the Blazers by. If you arepounding it as heavy as I am, you may want to buy a point and make your spread 6. I don't recommend playing the Hornets in the first half though. They are notoriously slow starters and i fully expect for them to go into the break either down or only ahead by a couple of points. They are one of the best second half teams that I know of though, so if they are down as I think they will be pound them in the second half. The Blazers have the carry-over effect working in their favor, and BigMoney likes them to get the first half cover an so do I, but i am not going to confuse my bets when it cmes to a PC Play.

mundane,

we are refugees from Coversexperts.com. they sent a few mods and goons after me to get me and my wife off the threads, because we were making so much money on the threds that no one was buying the picks of the so called "experts" there. Once I responded to the attacks, i was banished and sent to the penalty box. While in the penalty box they used my picks to make a boat load of money and then banned me altogether when I went off on a mod for allowing goons to talk about sideways about me and my family.

And now a question for the board as a whole...

Why hasn't anyone spoken up about Orlando playing Dallas in the second game of a back to back? Dallas has already seen the last wager for me on them this year. They areplaying an uninspired brand of basketball, and are facing an Orlando team that is a better road team than a home team. Yet nobody has spoken up about that game. C'mon Mafia. Let's get it going! Somebody give me a reason to either ignore that game or take it!

roasthawg · 11-14-08, 12:23 PM

^The Orlando line was the last one to go up...I just pounded it and the under, Dallas sucks!

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 12:25 PM

johnnymapalo,

Is that avatar better for you? I got my handle from Chet Coppack, a Chicago wiseguy, and former announcer for Bulls games. It was a joke about a character in a outer space bar in Star Wars or Star Trek, I can't remember. If you don't feel comfortable with that name, CK will do nicely! And BTW, I am serious.

showtime2000 · 11-14-08, 12:26 PM

HOw's this Ck,

-Magic are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games vs. a team with a losing home record
-Magic are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of less than .400
-Mavericks are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games
-Magic are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings in Dallas
-Underdog is 7-1 ATS in the last 8 meetings.
-Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings

Does this make a case for taking Orlando Ck?

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 12:27 PM

roasthawg wants the money!

Any more takers? Somebody give me some insight about that game. Wangichu? Please research that game and get back to us. I need a eason as to why I should or shouldn't take that game. I'm with roasthawg. Dallas sucks!

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 12:33 PM

Wow! Showtime2000,

that's some serious trends. I just don't know how Dallas can stop Rashard and Co. I think that this will turn into a board play, fellas. If showtime2000 and roasthawg are on it, an BigMoneyMan gets on it too, then we have to follow suit and take the shot to a man. The numbers are popping off the page at me, showtime2000. I will await Wang and BigMoney's call. If they're in, then we're all in, Circle of Trust play style!

HuskieFan123 · 11-14-08, 12:33 PM

Yeah, I got Portland at +8 last night too. Hornets really seemed to struggle against Lakers length last game and portland has similar length. Plus blazers bench is deep and should keep this one respectable. Hornets have a terrible bench. (Mike James is awful)

You are right though, this being the last game of their long road trip will definitely show it's affects, so I think it's very unlikely Blazers win. I'm from Portland and have friends up there. Not many are expecting a win tonight as most are just satisfied with a winning road trip. GL

MoneySportsGuy · 11-14-08, 12:54 PM

yeah ck, I got Orlando at +1.5 I think they are solid that is one of first games that stood out to me when doing my research. Check out my possibly plays for Friday got a write up on some matchups. goodluck in your plays today lets cash some money.

maddogmadden86 · 11-14-08, 12:57 PM

CK hears the best reason to take orlando I HATE DAllAS and everyone on that team even Mark CUban that lucky bastard I hated taking them last night and will never bet on them as long as i live plus like you said Orlando is a great away team and D Howard will beat the crap out of this team i like orlando simply to gain my money back from that pathethic team

MoneySportsGuy · 11-14-08, 01:16 PM

Orlando rolls tonight over a sucky Dallas team

mundane · 11-14-08, 01:20 PM

huskie this is not the last road trip for blazers. i see 2 more left (minn and gsw).

IrwinFletcher · 11-14-08, 02:11 PM

Hmmmm... That Mavs/Magic game is looking a bit fishy.. I'm showin' line of -1.5 and total of 198. Dallas coming off a road loss to the Bulls on second half of B2B and the Magic having just blown out a poor OKC team.

Dallas has had a brutal start to their season with 5/8 on the road and their only three home games vs. HOU, CLE, and LAL... three championship caliber teams. Dallas won all four matchups last season covering in two of the four (both on the road) albeit without Jason Kidd. In those four matchups Terry, Howard and Nowitzki have averaged over 20pts and the Mavs have had the edge on the glass.

Orlando, on the other hand has had a much more favorable schedule, starting their season with 6 of 8 home contests going 4-2 losing to Portland and Atl. Two road games so far losing to a weak ass Memphis team and crushing a weak ass OKC team... In last years' matchups Howard, Turk, Lewis, and Nelson had solid numbers.

Dallas has yet to win at home this year and Orland hasn't beat Dallas since '06 having lost 8 of their last ten to the Mavs.... food for thought.

All four contests from last year went over the number.. waiting on the refs in this one but leaning over the 198.

Any thoughts?

roasthawg · 11-14-08, 02:15 PM

^I'm on Orlando and the under so I hope you're way off on this game!

I think Dallas comes out flat after the tough loss last night...Orlando is a talented team and should be able to beat a pretty average Mavericks team tonight.

IrwinFletcher · 11-14-08, 02:47 PM

On another note.. Dal is 8/9 straight up in game 2 of b2b in their last 17..

wangichu · 11-14-08, 03:22 PM

Originally posted by cocknocker

roasthawg wants the money!

Any more takers? Somebody give me some insight about that game. Wangichu? Please research that game and get back to us. I need a eason as to why I should or shouldn't take that game. I'm with roasthawg. Dallas sucks!

with the magic coming off a blowout victory and the mavs coming off a tough loss in chicago and the mavs having lost 4 straight ATS, i would nalmost think mavs if anything here.. orlando has been getting inflated lines this year because of the way they started out last year. This is only their 3rd road game and i haven't seen anything that impresses me thus far... they got beat by memphis after taking a 12 pt lead into the second half and while they did blowout OKC... come on who's seriously that stoked on a win like that. With only two road games under their belt and a split against two perrenial dumpster teams, i just do not have faith in orlando yet (especially on the road, and after the good game that dallas put on the lakes)... if i was playing anything in this game (cuz i don't honestly don't trust dallas with my money either... who would) it would be orlando first half... they've run into half with commanding leads in both road games and a total of 5 games (covering) at half, 6 games winning at half, to only 2 games losing at half (portland and atlanta) ... to me the best play there is ORL 1st half, but who knows maybe they will take it with dallas as false favs... i just don't like this game personally

HuskieFan123 · 11-14-08, 03:27 PM

Originally posted by mundane

huskie this is not the last road trip for blazers. i see 2 more left (minn and gsw).

Ugh, you're right. Feels like it should be the last...it's been a damn long road trip for them.

MoneySportsGuy · 11-14-08, 03:32 PM

I like Orlando to get a straight up road win vs a not impressive Dallas team

cocknocker · 11-14-08, 03:35 PM

The over in Dallas/Orlando is starting to look good to me, IrwinFletcher(007).

wangichu · 11-14-08, 03:45 PM

ATL has covered every half and game spread this year except @ OKC and a home first half against philly (but they did have the tendency to come out slow at home and bum rush late last year) here they are on the road again and i just don't think the books are taking them seriously yet... come on, if they're really this good (and they really look like it) they should plow a garbage new jersey team, and if you don't like the game spread, like i said they come out strong on the road..

ATL -2 1st half, -3.5 game (probably play 1Q too, much to CK's chaigrin)

Charlotte is one of my home dog horses and here they opened catching almost a touchdown against utah, my road fav faders... i think that utah could win this one, but not by 5 (where it is now), spread dropped 2 pts, with public lovin on utah... let me buy some back and take the bobs (or maybe i'll just ML it)

CHAR +5/ML

and of course, i've already pounded the PC play...