RICHMOND--5mike5

[5mike5]

the numbers on hamlin and kyle here are nothing short of amzing

since 2009 KYLE has an avrage finish of 2.7...YES 2.7! and his WORST finish is a stunning 6th place in those past 6 races
in that same time span he also has 3 wins, ALL 3 COMING IN THE SPRING RACE
kyle doesnt usually qualify great here, but doesnt matter with those stats..leave room if u bet him just in case he slides to 2nd fav. after qualifying

since hamlin started here in 2006 he has a series best in laps lead (1188) and series best in average finish (6.3), and has 2 wins and without flat tires late in 1 would be at least 3 wins...with momentum he has hard to believe he wont be a huge factor

[5mike5]

liking a value play on BOWYER to win group C at +350 (dale jr, newman, martin, truex)

he has around 5.7 starting position here recently so think this will be my group play..dont think he could get any worse than those odds and hes decent at richmond...think it comes down to bowyer/newman so i went with team momentum...these 2 have almost exactly same stats here last 4 races

[onlooker]

4 leans so far:

Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch
Kevin Harvick
Tony Stewart

[5mike5]

4 leans so far:

Denny Hamlin
Kyle Busch
Kevin Harvick
Tony Stewart

love those picks

3 are my only bets so far actually...lol

[shaunovery]

Couldn't fancy Stewart been terrible recently

[Vegas39]

Looks like 60% chance of rain Saturday

[Optional]

Couldn't fancy Stewart been terrible recently

I'm not keen to back Kyle either, as fave when he isn't on song.

Looks like Hamlin and Harvick it is so far then. I'm not even going to try and think for myself this week. :\

[5mike5]

i got lucky getting kyle +700 minute they posted lines, not sure how i would feel about +550, even though hes won 3 in a row here in the Spring ..probably wouldnt matter as if he won and i didnt bet him id be pissed...im biased a little too though

i agree Happy is best value pre-sesions imo

and even though denny has dropped too since i got him, hes still good price for here too imo...he was opening favorite when they posted at +675 actually

[Optional]

Thanks Mike, but think I'll just wait until race day to have a bet now. Missed any early value there may have been now.

[5mike5]

Thanks Mike, but think I'll just wait until race day to have a bet now. Missed any early value there may have been now.

not going to bet any1 early Opti??...if u like harvick id lean on him...+950 great value i think, but like i said never know with the pre-session bets as u know well know being experienced

always a risk to bet early so cant argue with that decision...odds may get better just hope not too much so i dont have to add alot to them later

[5mike5]

took denny(+325) and harvick(+550) for the nationwide race tomorrow night...

that will be my only 2 picks for that race...just 2 as usual

harvick has won nationwide race several times here and was really suprised he was +550 so really couldnt pass him up here...and not passing hamlin in any race here

[Optional]

I put 5 bucks on Dillon +2100 just in case he practices out of his skin. Not for any real good reason though.

[5mike5]

I put 5 bucks on Dillon +2100 just in case he practices out of his skin. Not for any real good reason though.

"practices out of his skin"




Opti that is halarious....im laughing my ass off right now....never heard that b4!

i do like the pick as a longshot

[Optional]

lol... one of those expressions you hear all your life (in Australia) but could never explain exactly what the hell it means

[5mike5]

lol... one of those expressions you hear all your life (in Australia) but could never explain exactly what the hell it means

great line..

[5mike5]

for u guys that think chassis teams bring make differnce, harvick driving the chassis from his great runner-up run he had a phoenix earlier this year

[5mike5]

kinda like newman as underdog at +2700 just in case craziness breaks out

probably just end up a cover wager

may take him in a finishing position parlay or a H2H matchup actually if odds are decent for top 5 or 10

[5mike5]

I put 5 bucks on Dillon +2100 just in case he practices out of his skin. Not for any real good reason though.

still laughing about this hours later

"out of his skin"

LMAO

[tommygun]

Mike, that is the tip of the ice berg with the "sayings" and phrases we have here

[5mike5]

Mike, that is the tip of the ice berg with the "sayings" and phrases we have here

i think they are great...makes me laugh

best part is he wasnt meaning to be funny, which makes it even better

aussie "sayings" and "phrases" are great

[jgold254]

Put some on Hamlin, Harvick and Kyle. Let's do this!

[5mike5]

harvick being +550 for nationwide race didnt make any sense to me...

even if he doesnt win that is great value for him and hamlin good value too imo....especially when u compare the odds to CUP series

[Noles1992]

I locked in on Kyle for the streak, but also will put a little on Martin depending on quals. though he has only one once,he has many top 5 and almost 30 top10 finishes at this track. GL to all!

[5mike5]

GOODLUCK noles

hope u get that 9th in a row in ur fantasy game!

[shaunovery]

harvick being +550 for nationwide race didnt make any sense to me...

even if he doesnt win that is great value for him and hamlin good value too imo....especially when u compare the odds to CUP series

Sorry mike it's one of my bug bears people go on about value even if the bet doesn't win how's it value it lost

[5mike5]

Sorry mike it's one of my bug bears people go on about value even if the bet doesn't win how's it value it lost

..not saying u should make bets based only on value by any means

of course if will not matter if the bets dont win it, but if u are betting that cant matter when selecting the picks in any sport...im purely basing that on early value of opening odds on nationwide race
**just becuase the value is great does not mean i think any1 should pick any bet. based on that...i definatley dont follow that rule either...and thats not the reason i picked either driver for nationwide...i was just suprised how good the odds were on both...i would have bet them both regardless probably...thats all i was saying

if harvick was +150 i wouldnt see any value in that bet, and even if he won i wouldnt be upset i didnt bet it because at those odds its not worth the risk imo....but imo at +550 even if he doesnt win it was worth it because imo it had great value for harvick who i think can win the race....of course it doesnt matter if the picks dont win, but that has nothing to do with a opening line bet when i say i think it has great value...

[5mike5]

P..S.

what does "bug bear" mean?

lol....u get that line from Opti?

[5mike5]

P1 notes


Menard hit wall very hard

bowyer looked very good imo, lap and avgs. (lets go win group C bowyer)

Hamlin was top 10 lap and in avgs as usual here

harvick had good time in averages (3rd) and lap (12th) (also changed transmission during P1)

***track got alot warmer fast, so early laps were fastest and no chance any1 could be beat as track temp. skyrocked..half the field didnt get to take advantage of cool temps so comparing these times is useless

KYLE was most impressive in lap avg being 6th, as his best avg came on laps 41-50, while top 5 were 1-10

**practices mean next to nothing to me when capping a race, but still like to see whats going on...and make sure no disasters happen....lap avgs all i really care to look at and even that doesnt translate most of the time when race starts...especially since this will be at night
sessions fooled me for years weather it was good for me or not good for my picks, but ive learned the hard way not to put too much thought into sessions anymore..even though i looked and like 10-lap averages to be good, that hasnt mattered either latley

and conisdering practice in middle of the day and race is at night, means even less probably

[5mike5]

travis pastrana racing tonight too...ive been a fan of his for a longtime

i hope he gets the hang of stock cars cause he is a fun guy to follow

[5mike5]

P..S.

what does "bug bear" mean?

lol....u get that line from Opti?

Shaunovery-i tried to PM u back but said ur inbox was full so delete some messages!

u live in england?

thnx for telling me what that meant...i enjoy learning other places slang phrases...

thanks

[5mike5]

Couldn't fancy Stewart been terrible recently

every single time i DONT bet smoke he wins the race

**cant bet him this week....others may want to since im not

[5mike5]

P2 notes

nothing special happened in the session

10-lap best averages were bk, mm, bowyer, hamlin, jimmy and Kyle busch

dale jr fastest 1 lap, with edwards 2nd (only ran 8 total laps in p2)...he had nice sessions today, other times of favorites were:

kyle busch had the 5th best 1-lap, denny was 15th, and harvick 25th

[5mike5]

heres a unbelievable stat for nationwide race tonight:

been since 2004 (16 races) since a non-cup regular won a richmond nationwide race (that was kyle busch b4 his cup career started)

geeeez thats a long streak


another note: Harvick and martin are tied for most victories at richmond nationwide series at 5 each

[5mike5]

I put 5 bucks on Dillon +2100 just in case he practices out of his skin. Not for any real good reason though.

nice grab early Opti

dillion will start 3rd...nice for +2100

[5mike5]

took denny(+325) and harvick(+550) for the nationwide race tomorrow night...

that will be my only 2 picks for that race...just 2 as usual

harvick has won nationwide race several times here and was really suprised he was +550 so really couldnt pass him up here...and not passing hamlin in any race here

HARVICK starts on the POLE

HAMLIN starts 2nd

im loving that