RICHMOND--5mike5

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 12:21 AM

SPRINT CUP WEEKEND SCHEDULE:

ALL sessions will be held on FRIDAY

PRACTICES: NOON and 2:30 pm (est), both practices airing live on SPEED channel

QUALIFYING 5:30pm (est), airing live on SPEED channel

SPRINT CUP RACE: SATURDAY NIGHT at 7pm (est) on FOX

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 12:24 AM

NATIONWIDE WEEKEND SCHEDULE:

PRACTICES: FRIDAY at 9am (not airing on tv)

QUALIFYING: 4PM FRIDAY airing live on ESPN2

NATIONWIDE RACE: FRIDAY NIGHT at 7pm on ESPN2

shaunovery · 04-24-12, 08:10 AM

Early thoughts looking at Kyle and Edwards and maybe harvick

Kyle and Edwards struggling so far but both ran better last week

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 08:21 AM

definatley will give Kyle and Harvick early looks here along with denny and jimmy of course...those will be y 1st four drivers probably, and maybe only...lol

wont bet on carl here, he just cant win races these days...(and never won at richmond in his cup career)..and im guilty of wastin money on him as any1 as i bet him last weekend, but he needs to show me he can run up front again before i bet on him again...not being fooled by good sessions by him again

just depends on odds again if i take just 1 or 2 early and wait on the rest again..but the favs are going to be the favorites no matter what happens here as its pretty much dominated by a select few drivers in the last 6-7 years

still got 1 of past 4 races from richmond to watch this morning, making sure i didnt miss anything i didnt already wrote in my track notebook

Vegas39 · 04-24-12, 01:02 PM

Kyle and Hamlin will be strong here. Will be throwing some on Newman

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 01:38 PM

agree vegas

i have to add jimmy and harvick to those 2 as well

Vegas39 · 04-24-12, 01:49 PM

Will be fading Kahne on Matchups too

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 03:56 PM

harvick, kyle, and denny are my early picks for the favorites...little better odds than i excpected to start with too...nice suprise compared to early odds from last year started out on the favs here

will leave room to add on to bets on them if odds get better

bowyer at 28-1 best longshot pick imo..maybe better as top 5 finisher though

i think there will be some nice gropu and finishing position bets this week with some real value to them..even though i focus on winner of the race, im starting to like to bet little bit on those other plays too latley for xtra action

JackalLion · 04-24-12, 10:43 PM

Only play I'm making so far is Harvick. I may play Denny too but not yet. I'm trying to stay around 10/1 on my early picks.this may the best we'll see on Denny but I'm willing to wait.

shaunovery · 04-24-12, 10:45 PM

Does anyone know if pinnacle offers NASCAR lines

JackalLion · 04-24-12, 10:51 PM

They don't.

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 11:12 PM

US player so no idea

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 11:14 PM

denny may get a little better, but not sure would be enough to make much a differnce unless something happens..i.can see hamlin going lower though if squares see him have good sessions/qualifying...hes already got bet down from opening line as well

i left room either way it goes for denny, but kyle wont get better than 7-1 he started out at unless he crashes so no way i could wait on him...got at +700 minutes after they posted opening odds now hes already been bet down to +550

cant see harvick ever being 10-1 he started at again either, so couldnt wait on him either....good choice for value there i agree

5mike5 · 04-24-12, 11:40 PM

at least we should be able to look 4ward to alot of cautions this weekend

no way richmond race will be as boring as last 2 at texas/kansas were...i cant suffer through that for a 3rd week of only 2 or 3 cautions for the wntire race, and just impossible it will happen this week on this track

but on a bad note, there is a 40% chance of rain saturday and saturday night, but hopefully that will change later in the week

Dad · 04-25-12, 10:18 AM

Lets get em this weekend, Mike!

Noles1992 · 04-25-12, 11:25 AM

Mike if you would, a little input could help me on the Nascar.com Streak to finish. I am sitting in 3rd overall. have a streak of 8 going, driver has to finish in top 10.
Cannot use the same driver more than once .Have used these already.
RACE1)DE=2ND.. R2)JJ=4TH.. R3)STEW=1ST.. R4)Keselowski=1ST..R5)HARV=4TH.. R6)Boyer=10th.. r7)Kennseth=5th..
r8)Hamlin=1st.. I was thinking Kyle or Gordon? Maybe Biffle?
Thanks Man!

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Noles1992

Mike if you would, a little input could help me on the Nascar.com Streak to finish. I am sitting in 3rd overall. have a streak of 8 going, driver has to finish in top 10.
Cannot use the same driver more than once .Have used these already.
RACE1)DE=2ND.. R2)JJ=4TH.. R3)STEW=1ST.. R4)Keselowski=1ST..R5)HARV=4TH.. R6)Boyer=10th.. r7)Kennseth=5th..
r8)Hamlin=1st.. I was thinking Kyle or Gordon? Maybe Biffle?
Thanks Man!

if you are picking today i would have to say KYLE as this is probably his best overall track, plus he has finished inside the Top 10 in all four of the last 4 races held at richmond

gordon top 10 in 2 of last 4, and biffle 0 in last 4 races at richmond

GL with whatever u choose to do, thats a nice streak of 8...ive never played any fantasy b4 but i know how hard it is to pick 8 in a row and cant pick same driver...thats tough man good job so far

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 12:09 PM

Originally posted by Dad

Lets get em this weekend, Mike!

thanks DAD!

Noles1992 · 04-25-12, 12:14 PM

Thanks Man! Yeah I got lucky with Boyer and his debatcle a few races back. I am leaning on Kyle, as Gordon"s Luck has been bad near the end of races.

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 12:18 PM

Originally posted by Noles1992

Thanks Man! Yeah I got lucky with Boyer and his debatcle a few races back. I am leaning on Kyle, as Gordon"s Luck has been bad near the end of races.

yeah bud let me know what you end up taking so i can route for ur pick!

Noles1992 · 04-25-12, 03:18 PM

Thanks , Will do!

JackalLion · 04-25-12, 05:34 PM

Im not Mike but definitely Kyle based on your remaining drivers. That will also allow you to save Gordo for Darlinton and you'll have some good picks for Dega as well. Biffle ran great at Daytona and incredibly you still have him in your line up.

BTW nice pick on Bad Brad I'm sure you gained ground there.

Jackal

JackalLion · 04-25-12, 06:26 PM

I definitely agree with your thoughts on Kyle and Denny. I'm not saying that I won't play them but based on my per unit play vs return I'm having to select less drivers and look for better odds on early plays. Not even hitting a saver on a week with 10 or more units being played has caused me to rethink my strategy. Kyle has been less than stellar this year and doesn't have as much momentum as I like to see. Denny on the other hand is coming off a win and the 11 team is hitting on all cylinders right now. Most likely I will make a play on Denny and a saver on Kyle. Denny has been qualifying in the upper teens here so there's an outside chance his line will get better or stay the same. Stastically I'm having a decent year but so far I haven't seen a lot of return on my early plays so I'm cutting back a little there. With the tires Goodyear is bringing lately there are a lot fewer cautions and teams that traditionally get better and better throughout the race are having less opportunity and therefore less wins.

I know you keep a lot of great data and I'm curious if you wil check and see how many times the early favorite on 5 dimes has won this year. Off the top of my head I'm thinking most of the winners have come from the 3-10 positions but I'd love to know for sure.

Thanks,

Jackal

Noles1992 · 04-25-12, 08:03 PM

Originally posted by JackalLion

Im not Mike but definitely Kyle based on your remaining drivers. That will also allow you to save Gordo for Darlinton and you'll have some good picks for Dega as well. Biffle ran great at Daytona and incredibly you still have him in your line up.

BTW nice pick on Bad Brad I'm sure you gained ground there.

Jackal

Thanks Jackal for your input! And yes Brad and also Denny pushed me to the top. GL in your plays!

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 08:15 PM

halarious nascar now today is it replays u guys should watch it

was about the style of the drivers

was great

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 08:20 PM

yeah i bet way too much money on these races not to have 2 savers a weekend, it all averages out and will come in handy...just 8 races so far....even if they havent saved a week yet, they will and for me anyways, well worth it...in 4 years ive never bet more on savers than they have saved me over the year covering my bets

**just find a strategy that works 4 u and go with it..its just really individual player, not 1 way to do it....really all depends on ur risk/reward...you will find what works for you...you have done great for some1 just starting out imo

ive been using same startegy for 4 years now and been very seccessful over every season so i will never change unless it stops working, but 4 years its been amazing for me

just matters how much u risk every week imo...if u dont risk but a few 100 or less a week, i would not recommend the way i bet the races

**u will find ur nitch on it, took me years, and ur new to it but it will come

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 08:27 PM

and season only 8 races in favs will win plenty this year believe me, it will even out

certain tracks lend to betting mostly favs, as some tracks are wide open and u need more mid-pack picks imo..all depends on the track and the odds

.definatley most have been 3-8 so far, but that doesnt mean alot just 8 races in..i hit hamlin at 14.5 to 1 and kennseth 27 to 1 as longer odds but id have to look to give u an exact #...plus newman was underdog too....plus favs change from opening to after sessions sometimes too so depends

another thing is getting the best value and picking these guys at the right time, like i got kyle at +700, now +550, denny has dropped almost 1 pt already too from opening odds...but i bet them more than 1 time, just depends on what odds do

so the favorite when odds are released may be different than favorite come raceday too...been alot of times this year opening favorite isnt the favorite after the sessions so depends on what u are meaning by top 3 and at what point...all depends on what odds u get them at and what momment

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 08:50 PM

bottom line jackalion is ur doing good for some1 just starting to bet nascar.....you will find a betting strategy that works for u best over time...

and will probably change it several times too...took me alot of losing years to start making good money at nascar

just dont base it off a small sample size, long year ahead

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by 5mike5

halarious nascar now today is it replays u guys should watch it

was about the style of the drivers

was great

gordons old looks were funny

Optional · 04-25-12, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by shaunovery

Does anyone know if pinnacle offers NASCAR lines

Originally posted by JackalLion

They don't.

Are you sure? They did a few races back I could have sworn.

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 10:13 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Are you sure? They did a few races back I could have sworn.

suppose 2 b best book on the planet, so they have to have nascar odds right?

JackalLion · 04-25-12, 10:23 PM

Let me clarify my answer. I do not personally use Pinnacle so I was answering with what a good friend of mine told me. He said that US players could not bet NASCAR any longer.

I'll retract my answer because it was strictly hear say. Sorry

JackalLion · 04-25-12, 10:29 PM

Mike,

What I meant by the early favorite is the driver that 5 Dimes has listed when the first lines come out. Not after heavy plays are made or the sessions have started. I thought you might have that data handy.

5mike5 · 04-25-12, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by JackalLion

Mike,

What I meant by the early favorite is the driver that 5 Dimes has listed when the first lines come out. Not after heavy plays are made or the sessions have started. I thought you might have that data handy.

oh i see the opening line favorite....just off the top of my head i would say not many becuase jimmy has been favorite just about every week besides daytona/bristol for opening lines....thinking 1 maybe 2 times at most....even though he hasnt been closing the deal but 2 wins in the last 40 races he still starts out stout most weeks...usuaslly i dont see alot of value there, but i have bet him early a couple times, but have moved to cover wager on early bets too

ill look in the morning and get u the exact #, i do keep a running record of the opening/closing odds for last few years....ill get u the exact # for the 8 races so far this yar, but it will be very low so far this year, maybe 1-8 im thinking on opening favorite, but most of the time i dont agree with the fav. thats opens honestly...now, top 3-4 theres been alot more...but its a small sample size too

picking only top 1 or 2 favorites every week derfinatley wont win u any money over the season, actually would lose alot of money so i agree with what u said earlier...but some tracks (like this week) odds say its just smarter to have the top guys in there somewhere, or at least most of them..sometimes i will sacrifice a "big" win and lower my expectations because winning a solid decent amount better than losing the race thinking u arent making enough in 1 given week.....but also i have to look at it over the entire season, not race by race winnings and loses...favorites will definatley pick up on 2nd half of the season, when they start going to these tracks for a 2nd time

anyways i get the exact # for ya