Sprint Cup 2010 - Heluva Good! Sour Cream Dips 400 - Michigan

hawk 5 · 06-10-10, 06:44 AM

Harvick +2000. Betting on Jimmie may break you. Best I saw was +370. Don't like it. Hope his bad luck continues. Will add more.

your pixel army · 06-10-10, 03:24 PM

To Win:
Mark Martin +2000 (5)
Tony Stewart +2500 (5)
Dale Earnhardt Jr +2500 (5)
Joey Logano +3000 (3)
Jaime McMurray +4000 (2)
Martin Truex Jr +4000 (2)
Field +2000 (1)

avssakic · 06-10-10, 11:04 PM

Ford dominant track..........edwards maybe breaks his slump at +2000

hawk 5 · 06-11-10, 06:33 AM

Originally posted by avssakic

Ford dominant track..........edwards maybe breaks his slump at +2000

Yah, this week could be tough.

Optional · 06-11-10, 11:03 AM

Hi, first post here. I only bet on NASCAR and F1, and have only been doing it this year, so don't take too much notice of my Tips.

I don't usually bet until after Happy Hour is done, but in my early market ratings I agree with you guys who think Edwards and Harvick at +2000 look like the early value. (but not by much, I only rate them +1800 chances)

Sam Hornish was good enough to hold the lead near the end last week, and brought it home top 5 last time at Michigan. I rate him a +3000 chance at the moment, and he's at +12500.

your pixel army · 06-11-10, 01:17 PM

Originally posted by avssakic

Ford dominant track..........edwards maybe breaks his slump at +2000

Last 6 Michigan race winners:

Vickers - Toyota
Martin - Chevy
Edwards - Ford
Jr - Chevy
Ku. Busch - Dodge
Edwards - Ford

With the way Ford has been running this year, do you really think Edwards has a shot at winning? Just saying.

your pixel army · 06-11-10, 01:19 PM

Originally posted by Optional

Hi, first post here. I only bet on NASCAR and F1, and have only been doing it this year, so don't take too much notice of my Tips.

I don't usually bet until after Happy Hour is done, but in my early market ratings I agree with you guys who think Edwards and Harvick at +2000 look like the early value. (but not by much, I only rate them +1800 chances)

Sam Hornish was good enough to hold the lead near the end last week, and brought it home top 5 last time at Michigan. I rate him a +3000 chance at the moment, and he's at +12500.

You realize Sam Hornish +3000 is insane, right? Hell, at 5dimes you could have gotten Martin for +2350 and Jr./Stewart for +2800 earlier.

Optional · 06-11-10, 02:21 PM

Originally posted by your pixel army

You realize Sam Hornish +3000 is insane, right? Hell, at 5dimes you could have gotten Martin for +2350 and Jr./Stewart for +2800 earlier.

An insanely short rating? Maybe shorter than others might cap him this week, but hopefully not a sign I've lost my mind, yet.

Or did you mean to bet on him at the +12500 was insane?

onlooker · 06-11-10, 07:09 PM

I think he misunderstood you.

Also, welcome to SBR and to the NASCAR bunch. We are small but sweet.

Optional · 06-12-10, 12:50 AM

Thanks onlòóker,

Glad to have found a bunch of people that want to talk about NASCAR betting. Was starting to think I was the only one on the interwebs for a while there!

onlooker · 06-12-10, 01:40 AM

I think you find this place very nice.

avssakic · 06-12-10, 02:22 AM

Hopefully I will be able to find out some more info after the practices tomorrow. Rain could be an issue though

hawk 5 · 06-12-10, 08:13 AM

Kurts looking racy. Still waiting for someone to step up.

WolverineFan · 06-12-10, 11:38 PM

I am really liking Kenseth for a long shot this week

avssakic · 06-13-10, 12:14 AM

17 don't look too bad. Liking 48 and 11

Optional · 06-13-10, 05:36 AM

Hard race I think. Not a lot of value in the serious contenders this week.

I'm going with;
Bet 1 unit Johnson
Lay 1½ units Kyle Busch
Bet ½ unit Menard for top 5 (if bet365 ever put up the market and offer decent odds)

Even though Johnson is terrible value as a bet, I've got a pretty high degree of confidence in my ratings, and a 10% higher rating than the rest of the field is too much for me to ignore.

Here's my final ratings sheet for Michigan if anyone is interested.

WR = My rating
PRB = Win probability
IO = Implied odds from probability
AO = Actual odds
OR = Difference Implied to Actual odds
VI = Value Index (AO/IO) >100 = value Bet, <100 = value Lay
KS = Kelly Stake in units for a bank of 100 units (Lay bets in red)

hawk 5 · 06-13-10, 07:26 AM

Originally posted by avssakic

17 don't look too bad. Liking 48 and 11

Love the 48, but not at +300. Autobet might give me something decent. Waiting.

Dirty Sanchez · 06-13-10, 08:54 AM

Something tells me Jimmy steps up today...he's tired of the garbage finishes

rgbraves · 06-13-10, 09:03 AM

Anyone think Newman has a shot at top 3

onlooker · 06-13-10, 09:19 AM

Jimmie Johnson +220
Jeff Gordon +830
Carl Edwards +2200

Jimmie at this point is just a clean up bet for the other two if he wins.

Good luck everyone.

hawk 5 · 06-13-10, 10:44 AM

Originally posted by rgbraves

Anyone think Newman has a shot at top 3

yes

Sawsi · 06-13-10, 11:18 AM

I think today will be a Hendrick day. Just have that feeling.

hawk 5 · 06-13-10, 11:48 AM

Adding Kurt +995, Jimmie +335, and Gordon +800. And a small wager on the 39 at +5125.

onlooker · 06-13-10, 11:54 AM

Figures Jimmie odds get better after I bet him.

BadNina · 06-14-10, 01:01 AM

i can't believe none of you even thought of hamlin with the way he has been kicking butt.

And on a side note, that might have been the most boring race of the year. We are talking soccer boring.

onlooker · 06-14-10, 02:38 AM

Originally posted by avssakic

17 don't look too bad. Liking 48 and 11

I hope you bet that 11.

avssakic · 06-14-10, 02:52 AM

I was able to cash in on hamlin. Had Edwards on my pre qual bet and Johnson and hamlin for my after practices. Couldn't resist on his avg lap speeds in prac, something I rely heavily on

hawk 5 · 06-14-10, 06:42 AM

Great job assakic

Optional · 06-14-10, 07:07 AM

Originally posted by avssakic

I was able to cash in on hamlin. Had Edwards on my pre qual bet and Johnson and hamlin for my after practices. Couldn't resist on his avg lap speeds in prac, something I rely heavily on

Congrats.

Do you have a source for best 5 or 10 lap averages or just use the overall avg that nascar.com or jayski publishes?

avssakic · 06-14-10, 01:48 PM

I just use the overall avg's, mainly use jayski. The winner of the race usually comes from the top 3 with the best avg speed in happy hour, has been true for all races except a handful. Also, I look at laps run when looking at the avg's. Wonder if its possible to come up with some formula or system

BadNina · 06-14-10, 02:11 PM

I overlooked that! Congrats!

I will miss the next two races but will be able to check in here to see what all happened. So you guys have to keep me updated!

avssakic · 06-15-10, 01:34 AM

thanks everyone.....should be fun this week at the road course

BadNina · 06-15-10, 01:46 AM

And I am ok with missing the road course.

hawk 5 · 06-15-10, 06:37 AM

Originally posted by BadNina

And I am ok with missing the road course.

I like gambling on the road courses. At one time there was only 3-4 drivers that had a chance to win them. Little tougher now. But I can still get close on who I will like right now. Montoya, J Gordon, Stewart, the 47 car, and maybe Kyle.