Opinions for my picks, AFL 2012

Coopertrooper · 07-13-12, 12:17 AM

It is a funny week. I had a small multi on a few games, but not sure if I really want to go hard this weekend or not. There doesn't appear to be any markets that are way off what I'm expecting, so no easy money to be made that I can see.

The total looks fairly sharp, but I think Carlton will get there. Could be a bit of a shoot-out.

Lookingtostart · 07-13-12, 01:37 AM

No Murphy = no Carlton, it seems, disregard the collingwood game. Even when he comes back he will need match fitness. But North are unpredictable. I think North to cover.

DHB · 07-13-12, 02:04 AM

should be a close one. north should win this one outright, but got em @ +5.5 to be safe.

Lookingtostart · 07-13-12, 04:51 AM

Alright, yes, North +5.5 $1.909.

Lookingtostart · 07-13-12, 07:24 AM

I made a statement before that I should stay away from 1-39 bets, and I'm glad I did. I should explore more 40+ opportunities. The match hasn't ended yet as I type, and Carlton may well kick more goals to get North 1-39, but the game is so unpredictable that 40+ deserves more research.

DHB · 07-13-12, 08:21 AM

easy win, north didn't even need the 5.5 points.

benrama · 07-13-12, 06:11 PM

Yes those 1-39 bets have to be used very sparingly, generally only for teams that rarely if ever get blown out eg Sydney.

I was just about to pull the trigger on playing 40+ on each side for this game, north play such a high risk brand of footy ... Coulda woulda shoulda

Fremantle, essendon, Richmond and st kilda are my leans for today so far. Will almost certainly play Fremantle

Coopertrooper · 07-13-12, 10:44 PM

I'm not too surprised I guess. The blues weird set-up only seems to work against us, but that is about it. The roo boys have been hard to predict this year though, at one stage they'd beaten only Geelong and the bottom teams, but now are getting more mid-range scalps for once!

I like freo, essendon and the tigers as well, have done a few multis because there isn't a whole heap of value in individual bets this week.

BOL guys.

Lookingtostart · 07-13-12, 10:44 PM

Freo -20.5 1 unit

Port +13.5 1 unit

Port 40+ $1 paying $11

Lookingtostart · 07-13-12, 10:49 PM

Originally posted by benrama

I was just about to pull the trigger on playing 40+ on each side for this game, north play such a high risk brand of footy ... Coulda woulda shoulda

Yeah, North are too unpredictable, so are Port in a way. that's why I'm trying them for 40+, just 1$. Who else plays a high risk brand of football?

Lookingtostart · 07-14-12, 01:28 AM

Gold Coast +33.5 1 unit

benrama · 07-14-12, 01:55 AM

Originally posted by Lookingtostart

Yeah, North are too unpredictable, so are Port in a way. that's why I'm trying them for 40+, just 1$. Who else plays a high risk brand of football?

I'd put Essendon in there as well, Carlton, North, I'd wager that if you played the 40+ on each side on every one of these teams games from now to the end of season you'd end up in the black.

Hawthorn to win 40+ nearly every game right now :-)

Pies, Adelaide, saints, eagles are who I focus on for 1-39 bets

Coopertrooper · 07-14-12, 02:36 AM

The tigers... wow. They are winless at Cazaly, and are getting belted by the winless suns. Had them going into every bet so they look like burning my entire weekend. Just another reason to hate Richmond :|

Lookingtostart · 07-14-12, 04:33 AM

I agree on those teams Benrama, some teams just have a habit of being unpredictable and some make a habit of close games.

Lookingtostart · 07-14-12, 04:34 AM

Originally posted by Coopertrooper

The tigers... wow. They are winless at Cazaly, and are getting belted by the winless suns. Had them going into every bet so they look like burning my entire weekend. Just another reason to hate Richmond :|

Just as much as some ask "why did I bet on Richmond?", I ask myself why did I bet on Port?". Luckily, I only bet a small amount.

Lookingtostart · 07-15-12, 01:33 AM

Sydney to win, 1 unit.

Eagles with some injury concerns, Sydney won't be phased about playing at Subiaco.

Lookingtostart · 07-15-12, 04:24 AM

Well, there goes another 40+ opportunity.

Originally, I did not want to bet on this game because I follow Eagles, but in the last instance I was reminded of all the Eagles outs.

I should have done my research, because there were opportunities on Sydney, research would have shown all the Eagles' important players that were out. Even then, I would probably only have put a small amount on 40+

.

Still, happy with the win.

Lookingtostart · 07-20-12, 08:02 PM

Adelaide -16.5 $1.91, 1 unit.

Crows are finding their thing at home, if they haven't already found it. Eagles are still lacking some players that are usually in the squad.

Brisbane -26.5 $1.91, 1 unit.

Brisbane are an improved side from last year. GC returning from a different climate and travel, will struggle but not too much. Might be close, but GC can loose it easily.

johno35 · 07-20-12, 09:22 PM

GL mate, not sure about Adelaide, should be a good game I think, I'll be on the over with that game. Like Brisbane also, cant see GC getting close, Brisbane have had a great record this year against teams around the bottom

johno35 · 07-21-12, 02:07 AM

Good stuff on Adelaide mate we both cash

benrama · 07-21-12, 04:26 AM

Essendon cashes another 40+, so does Hawthorn. I'm playing it for the north game tomorrow as well.

Will be on 1-39 for swans st kilda with more money on the swans side.

Can't believe Carlton are the price they are against the Bulldogs, yes I understand their outs but this is the Bulldogs ffs!

Lookingtostart · 07-21-12, 04:37 AM

I followed steam and picked Bulldogs +9.5, 1 unit.

I know what you mean benrama, Bulldogs are shit but Carlton are on a landslide... but still, yeah, oh well, steam. Oh, and all those 40+ opportunities. That's like three already!

johno35 · 07-21-12, 04:53 AM

As crap as the doggies are they should win tonight, Carlton missing too many players

aussieH · 07-21-12, 06:10 AM

New coach this week for the blues maybe. Ex tiger may save him for a few weeks.

Lookingtostart · 07-21-12, 10:12 PM

Tigers still in the finals race, Hardwick actually has a decent chance. Well, Bulldogs really were that bad. Carlton should sack Ratten, though I hope they don't.

Lookingtostart · 07-21-12, 10:14 PM

Sydney -18.5 $1.98 1 unit,

I think, I hope, that the majority of the football public (vic) continue to underestimate good interstate teams.

Lookingtostart · 07-27-12, 10:03 PM

I'm not on anything right now, a bit distracted and it's a tricky round this one. I just want to mention that time and time again, inside knowledge has proven itself to be a winner. With Cats hosting Crows, Sanderson would know a lot about the Cats, but line movement has been going in favour of the Cats so it's a no play. But I think the Crows should cover -9.5,

If line movement went towards the Crows, I would go two units.

Lookingtostart · 09-13-12, 01:42 AM

Finals round 2

Lookingtostart · 09-13-12, 02:27 AM

West Coast vs Collingwood.

I decided to continue my thread since it's finals time. Previously I have been about 50/50 so far so I let it go, but this thread was also started because I'm interested to know what others think of my picks. My intention is to learn from others as well. So here we go:

I like Eagles line at +3.5. Keep in mind this is referring to full time. Draws in Collingwood finals have been more common than with any other team I can think of, not that that's a factor but it's not without question that there is a slight chance this could be a draw.

Captain Nick Maxwell is a significant omission for the Pies. They sustained no injuries in their previous game. Jolly back in since last time they played.

Cloke is now back in form.

Beau Waters is a big out for the Eagles, you could say this cancels out the Maxwell injury. Rosa is said to return for this game, if that's the case it will be very good news, he is a solid player as a midfielder who can cover a lot of ground, also a good contested mark. But he might be playing under an injury. Lynch is free to play, but doesn't usually play well in Melbourne.

The last time they played, Eagles won comfortably but at their home ground and no Jolly for the Pies, with Nic Nat and Cox doing as they pleased.

Regarding the McCarthy factor, if Collingwood deliberately use this to try to inspire themselves, they will loose. This sort of inspiration needs to come from within, not from attention whoring themselves as they usually do. As it stands so far, it is an unknown factor.

Like most interstate teams, Eagles don't usually have a chance to play at the MCG. Stats can be deceiving. The Eagles have not beaten the Pies at the ground in 17 years, with the last time being round two, 1995. However, this makes it five straight wins for the Magpies at the MCG. That's right, only five games between them at the MCG, in 17 years. I think the Eagles will be keen to play there as were the Dockers last week, this home ground advantage to the Pies might not be as big as you think.

Eagles have gotten their game plan back on track with Kennedy having returned a few weeks ago, teaming up with Darling, Hill and a rotating Cox up forward allows them to play their natural game when kicking forward. Elsewhere around the ground should be an even contest with the exception of Travis Clokebeing dominant at their end, though I think the Eagles will be more dominant in their forward zone.

Eagles by ~~11 points~~ 3 points.

Edit: I overlooked the Pies with 8 days break vs Eagles with only 6 days. Now I'm not so sure, the line is tight. Plus I have a bias toward the Eagles.