Opinions for my picks, AFL 2012

[Lookingtostart]

I'm posting my plays here so that others can give their opinions if they disagree/agree, I would love to hear you're opinions. It's also a simple way to keep track, I've done alright in soccer but 50/50 in AFL. Only a small amount will be bet on these picks unless someone can chime in and make me more confident on a play.

Brisbane Lions

+18.5 2.010

West Coast Eagles

+15.5 2.020

Essendon Bombers

-6.5 1.962

Adelaide Crows

-19.5 2.040

Have no idea on the Melbourne/GWS game.

[brettels]

The Brisbane and west coast lines are tough! I personally wouldnt play them though because I'm comfortable with pies and puppies winning!

I like the bombers pick!

Crows line is the best of the lot!

[Lookingtostart]

Yeah, I'm waiting a bit longer before I put more on the Crows, but they are probably the pick this round.

[brettels]

LTS your better off trusting yourself! People like myself will come in and have an opinion that may have prevented you from making some $!

Lions have impressed again today! I'm gonna shut up and maybe make a fade me thread lol !

[Lookingtostart]

I know how you feel Brettels, AFL's been weird for me this year.

I'm thinking GWS will cover, +24.5. I mean, who have Melbourne got? No play on that yet, I just think they will cover.

[hedgejob]

Crows are the best 1Q team this season. But they tend to fade away after that, esp in the last Q. I would take them to win 1Q or 1H.

[Lookingtostart]

Cheers for the advice, I'll think about that. Speaking of 1st quarters, reminded me of this thread that I found not long ago: http://www.bigfooty.com/forum/thread...breaks.957298/

Not that it will come into play this Sunday but something to think about in the future.

[Lookingtostart]

Small play on GWS +23.5 @ 1.91.

You can get them for +24.5 on pinnacle.

[Crowing Capers]

Great weekend thus far LTS
Strongly agree crows line and also hitting up the over 195.5 under the roof
Can see crows scoring 120-130 points by themselves
Fark knows bout Ds and Giants
Good punting

[benrama]

LTS, good to see you with your own thread. I was on WCE too ATS - what a game. Its between those teams or Hawks for premiers this year for me.

I think GWS are a great shot to win SU today, you can bet they have circled this game in their calendar. I watched them against Essendon and Richmond, and at times they looked very confident. Cameron is a real find for them up front.

Because it's two shit teams it's by necessity a small play but I'm throwing a little on the spread and ML

Adelaide should win comfortably but I also don't like how they have been MIA at times. I think I'm going to do a 75:25 play on the 1-39 and 40+ lines. Basically even odds for a win under 40 and money back if its a blowout.

[Lookingtostart]

Thanks Benrama, I switched off late in the third quarter, couldn't bare to watch it, my heart pumps too hard in these.

I think GWS are good value SU too, was thinking about SU as well, I'll put a bit on it now. They have some big players for their age!

Having a look at Crows 40+ or - lines.

[Lookingtostart]

GWS to win, $3.70.

Crows 1-39 $2.15

Crows 40+ $3.00.

Hope to middle 1-39 and line. Actually, 40+ and line!

[Lookingtostart]

Got a bit cocky there with Crows, not looking too good. And why didn't I just stay away from GWS?

[YorkHunt]

Crows playing dumb ball....

[Coopertrooper]

Over looks like it will hit in that game, after a very quiet opening 15 minutes, still only the second quarter though. Not watching it, but how did it end up being such a high-scoring first quarter?

[benrama]

No one could have picked Crows would be THAT poor but I was still concerned enough to not like the spread. This is not over yet, North have been horrendous in the 2nd half for most of the season and if Port can cr back from this type of margin so can Adelaide.

But LTS I do hope your GWS play wasn't for a full unit! Even though I played them too I never put more than a 1/4 unit action on shit teams!

[Lookingtostart]

1/4 on SU and 1/4 on line for GWS. If I just picked straight lines I would have been 3/2 with these picks. I got over-zealous with the Crows.

[benrama]

Gotcha - yea I figured a lot of SBR was pretty bullish on the crows, north at home and Adelaide away always had some unpredictability though - easy to say in hindsight. I was thinking of a large-ish multi including tr Crows - glad I stayed away now.

Interested to see what the Noeth line opens against Saints next week

[Lookingtostart]

There was talk (well before the game) of a flu that spread through the Crows, Dangerfield and Thompson may not have started so I assume they were worst affected. If this is true, that would explain why they were so shit, no way can you play at that level with a flu. This is not the first time I've heard about a flu spread amongst the Crows, seems to happen every now and again?

[Lookingtostart]

This time, no getting carried away on one team. Just straight line bets:

Fremantle Dockers

+38.5

Essendon Bombers

-28.5

That's it.

I like Geelong, Brisbane and Saints to cover, not pulling the trigger yet. In fact, I really like the Lions...

[Coopertrooper]

Think we'll give the dockers a touch-up tomorrow, but the bombers should be solid. Think they'll start to struggle as the year goes on, but the dogs are just about cooked for the year. GL

[Lookingtostart]

Collingwood seems like the obvious line, I just think Freo ebb and flow funny and their structure is starting to gel, they will be ready after what happened last week. But, I won't be surprised it it's a blowout by Pies.

[Lookingtostart]

I'll try this once more, following Benrama, if it doesn't hit this will be the last time I'm making 1-39 bets.

Hawks 1-39
Hawks 40 + hedge

Push altogether.

[Lookingtostart]

I need someone to tell me the lions are a good bet...

[brettels]

The lions are a good bet

[benrama]

I'll try this once more, following Benrama, if it doesn't hit this will be the last time I'm making 1-39 bets.

Hawks 1-39
Hawks 40 + hedge

Lol good luck to us brother, but all care no responsibility here! I've pretty much not lost a 1-39 bet and/or hedge for my last 10 or so bets though I admit I was concerned about Swans last week when they ran away early.

Now I've said that I'll probably jinx myself and Carlton will bring their A+ game; but with Carlton's injury list, Hawks form, stat advantage and H2H advantage I'll take my chances.

I used to think 1-39 was a sucker bet but now I think you're crazy not to have it as part of your arsenal.

[benrama]

And yes I like lions too, both ATS and in a multi

[Lookingtostart]

Added Brisbane Lions, -26.5.

Hawks looking like 40+, junktime might help.

[Lookingtostart]

The lions are a good bet

I'll hold you to that.

[Lookingtostart]

Now I need opinions on Geelong and Saints. Saints are a surprisingly decent team this year, North sliding, sliding.

[Coopertrooper]

I've liked the saints since the start of the year, had them in my top 4. they've dropped a few 50-50 games, but are winning when they should. They've always loved Etihad too, I'll be jumping on their line myself most likely

Lions have been very funny in the past month, I'm finding them hard to predict, so won't comment, but I'd certainly like them H2H at home, not sure about the line.

[benrama]

Hawks way too strong, had a feeling that would happen but I saw Carlton play well last two weeks and thought they had a chance to keep it close, especially given how desperate they are for a win.

I'm a Saints fan and I think they *should* beat North, but North play well at Etihad and if they play anything like last week they will keep this game close, so it's north and the points for me

[Lookingtostart]

North only seems to beat teams when they're vulnerable, Crows had a flu outbreak in their team, I think Saints will be too good but, as always, won't be surprised if North win SU. Staying away.

[Lookingtostart]

I've got to think of a different way to do the thumbs up thing, can't edit my picks.

Freemantle +38.5

Bombers -28.5

[Lookingtostart]

Added Brisbane Lions, -26.5.

Brisbane Lions, -26.5