NRL 2012 Plays

[angelo63]

Round 6 Plays

Round 6 NRL Plays

Play 40 :Play is 2 Units on Rabbitohs ML @ 2.25
Play 41 :Play is 1 Unit on Rabbitohs -10.5 @ 5.15@ Centrebet
Play 42: Play is 2 Units on Tigers ML @ 2.49@ Pinny
Play 43 :Play is 2.5 Units on Titans ML@2.15@Pinny
Play 43: Play is 2 .5 Units on Dragons -2 Line @ 1.95 @ Pinny
Play 44: Play is 2.5 Units on Cowboys@2.40@ Pinny
Play 45 :Play is 2 Units on Sea Eagles -6.5@1.95@PInny
Play46: Play is 1Unit on Sea Eagles 13+@2.75@ Sportsbet

Play 40/41:Rabbits to win well
The Rabbits learned a valuable lesson in week one about playing the full 80 mins and that lesson Learjet paid dividends with the last gasp win against the Tigers. Burgess is out but the rest of the team is firing and playing very well, they need to show some consistency and are desperate for a win this week.
The Dogs were average last week against the Titans, they were physically very strong against the much smaller Titans but escaped with a win through some individual brilliance and superior fitness. This week they will meet a much more physical opponent and a very determined one as well. Time for the Rabbits to click into gear , although the Dogs have done well so far they are due for a down game , the Rabbitohs defence wont slack off as the Titans did last week.

Play 42 :Tigers to win in a tough match
Benji did everything he could to win the match last week and he would of been shattered to lose like that. The return of Farrah and Galloway will help the Tigers who are 1-4 and pressure is mounting. I still se the Tigers as a threat to the Premiership and they will more than likely go on a long winning run at some stage, but what we need to asses is will they win this week.
Getting 2.50 for the Tigers in Sydney i a great price and with Marshall in superb form they will have the attack to score a few tries, the defence was great last week holding the Rabbits to 4 points for 7 4 mins . Pride is at stake here and the Tigers pride has been seriously hurt, Farrah will be fired up and Galloway is a massive boost to counter the loss of Ellis. Tigers in a tough one.

Will post more tomorrow on the other games, I have found the value bets here and the Titans also look good, as well as the Cowboys and the Sea eagles. Knights v Eels is a hard one, I will have a closer look at the Raiders game as well.

[angelo63]

Warriors in town

Just ran into a couple of the Warriors here in Canberra and was surprised they travelled so early , due to Easter they arrived today and that gives them a extra day to prepare. My kids were stoked to get a few pictures with Mateo and he was very relaxed , Although I couldnt gauge how much they were psyched for this match they did seem confident and understood they have been playing badly so far this season.

The price is skinny for the Warriors because we never know which team will turn up, But i will wait and see what reports come out of the Raiders camp and make a decision then.

I know the game wil be a cracker as both teams need a win, It would be a brave man to back the Raiders after Monday but maybe we should think of how good the Cowboys were than how bad the Raiders are, The Raiders are missing their best two players plus they lost two during the game, I have a feeling the seson is spiralling out of control for them and only a late charge for the finals after a coachng change can alter that.

[kingsr]

Angelo, thanks for reporting this bro...Warriors is the play imo.

[angelo63]

Angelo, thanks for reporting this bro...Warriors is the play imo.

I agree, Shame I missed the 2.00 that was around early this week, If the mood of the Raiders is down and i will know about that soon enough the Warriors will cover the line, still have a few days to assess

[kingsr]

Sweet, please keep us posted....1.80 is still 80% ROI...take it and run brother

[benrama]

Loving the card this week Angelo, I think I'm on all of them as well except for Souths. I'm close to getting my model up and running but preliminary numbers back all these plays. Wish I'd jumped on the sea eagles at -6 will probably be my biggest bet of the season so far.

[angelo63]

Loving the card this week Angelo, I think I'm on all of them as well except for Souths. I'm close to getting my model up and running but preliminary numbers back all these plays. Wish I'd jumped on the sea eagles at -6 will probably be my biggest bet of the season so far.

Lets hope he Bunny brings us a couple of Friday winners, Sea Eagles line may change depending if Foran playsbut it wont really matter that muh, Matai is back and with Lyon also back after missing last week they will prove to strong to the cellar dwellin Panthers . I wil only have a good size bet on Manly when Lyon is fit and playing, he is he key for them in both attack and defence, A true competitor he lifts his team like Gallen lifts the Sharks . Grat to seethat the plays match your models, we must be doing something right.

Been a great start to Easter with The MLB starting off and some good NBA action after the Blues cruised past the 20 point line last night. Good Luck mate , i think you kn wthe Doggies are due for a loss as they were scratchy last week against a dodgy team, fitness, size and some brilliance got them through and as Benji found out last week sometimes thats not enough.

[jonorussell]

I believe they didnt go back to nz after last weeks game. They stayed in Kiama this week.

Just ran into a couple of the Warriors here in Canberra and was surprised they travelled so early , due to Easter they arrived today and that gives them a extra day to prepare. My kids were stoked to get a few pictures with Mateo and he was very relaxed , Although I couldnt gauge how much they were psyched for this match they did seem confident and understood they have been playing badly so far this season.

The price is skinny for the Warriors because we never know which team will turn up, But i will wait and see what reports come out of the Raiders camp and make a decision then.

I know the game wil be a cracker as both teams need a win, It would be a brave man to back the Raiders after Monday but maybe we should think of how good the Cowboys were than how bad the Raiders are, The Raiders are missing their best two players plus they lost two during the game, I have a feeling the seson is spiralling out of control for them and only a late charge for the finals after a coachng change can alter that.

[angelo63]

I believe they didnt go back to nz after last weeks game. They stayed in Kiama this week.

Yep, They said they were up at Kiama and spent a day at the adventure park at Jamberoo, makes it like a mini tour for them week, Can only make the team focus more at the job at hand and puts a higher priority on this game than any this year. I am going to play the Warriors to cover the line as the Raiders are just missing too many players this week.

[angelo63]

Play 47

Play 47

Play is 2.5 units on Warriors -4.5 @ 2.15

Confidence is high with Warriors today, sorry about short write up but it is Easter and i still have to get ou tot the game after lunch.

Good Luck to all

[That Guy]

Good luck mate - I like the Warriors for this one.

[angelo63]

Good luck mate - I like the Warriors for this one.

I was at the game and it was tough to watch, I Still am not sure if the Raiders were that good or the Warriors that bad, a mixture of both i believe. The Raiders proved that they can make the 8 this year and when the injured players return they will be hard to beat in any game. Campese still playing well below par and this would suggest Canberra are an outside chance for the top 4.
The Warriors seemed lazy and were not enthusiastic at all, they only started to play well when under pressure late in the 1st half and again 10 mins into the 2nd half. If they can get there act together mentally they will play a role later in the year.

I have seen the Cowboys Roosters line at 2.5 for the game in Darwin this week....To me its a no brainer, I like the Cowboys for the Title this year ( even after the Storm demolition) and i like the Roosters for the Spoon so 2.5 points is a gift and i will load up on it today for my biggest lock of the year so far.

Good luck mate keep it rolling your plays have been great.

[angelo63]

Round 6 Results and eary Round 7 play

Round 6 NRL Plays Results
Play 40 :Play is 2 Units on Rabbitohs ML @ 2.25
Play 41 : Play is 1 Unit on Rabbitohs -10.5 @ 5.15@ Centrebet
Play 42: Play is 2 Units on Tigers ML @ 2.9@ Pinny
Play 43 :Play is 2.5 Units on Titans ML@2.15@Pinny
Play 43a: Play is 2 .5 Units on Dragons -2 Line @ 1.95 @ Pinny
Play 44:Play is 2.5 Units on Cowboys@2.40@ Pinny
Play 45 :Play is 2 Units on Sea Eagles -6.5@1.95@PInny
Play46:Play is 1Unit on Sea Eagles 13+@2.75@ Sportsbet
Pay 47:Play is 2 units on Warriors -4.5@2.15


Round 6 : 9 Plays 3 Wins 6 Losses Total -6.15 Units Loss

Season to Date: 48 Plays : 22 Wins 26 Losses Total 4.75 Units Loss

[angelo63]

Early Round 7 Play Lock of Season so far

Round 7

Play 49: 4Unit play: Play is 4 Units on Cowboys -2.5 Line @ 1.90

I had a speculator bet on the Titans v Roosters math of backing the Draw ht /Draw Ft on Betfair @ 110 to 1, It was as close as u can get to getting a 110 pop home and sadly i just missed. The Roosters looked good in patched against the Titans but they were playing the Titans.

The Cowboys played a shoot out type of game against the Storm who can play the high pace attack game better than any other team. Weighing up the form of these two teams is not hard, the class difference is huge . Centrebet will adjust this line over the next few days by weight of money so the early bird will get the worm.

[angelo63]

Round 7:Plays 50, 51 & 52

Play 50: 2 Unit play: Play is 2 Units on Dragons -4 @ 1.91
Play 51: 1 Unit play: Play is 1 Unit on Raiders +8 Line @ 1.95
Play 52: 1 Unit play: Play is 1 Unit on Raiders 1-12 @ 4.50

Good Luck to all

[angelo63]

Round 7 Results

Round 7

Play 49: 4Unit play: Play is 4 Units on Cowboys -2.5 Line @ 1.90
Play 50: 2 Unit play: Play is 2 Units on Dragons -4 @ 1.91
Play 51: 1 Unit play: Play is 1 Unit on Raiders +8 Line @ 1.95
Play 52: 1 Unit play: Play is 1 Unit on Raiders 1-12 @ 4.50


Round 7 : 4 Plays 2 wins 2 losses Win +3.62 Units

Season to Date: 52 Plays : 24 Wins 28 Losses Total 1.13 Unit Loss

A good round this week with a easy win on the Cowboys against the hopeless Roosters. 7 out of 8 favs won this weekend and the surprise was the gold Coast winning against the Sea Eagles, was happy to stay out of that game and the others as the Sharks game was close .
Warriros back in form , with a big win, Storm struggled against the Dogs and Tigers won against a very weak Panthers.

This week we will see the Aussies line up against the Kiwis who will have Johnson and Marshall in the halves leaving them directionless. If we can get a line around 10-11 points i will be backing the Aussies.

Good Luck to all

[kingsr]

Aus -7.5 at luxbet...be quick! Centrebet has it at 9.5!

[angelo63]

Play 53 Anzac Test

Aus -7.5 at luxbet...be quick! Centrebet has it at 9.5!

Play 53: Play is 3 Units on Australia -8@1.94

Good Luck to all

[kingsr]

I have a big bet on AUS...Good luck Angelo.

[s2230011]

Just looking at next round odds, and just at a glance i like a few ...

Cowboys $1.90 against Bunnies
Dogs $2.08 against manly
Storm -6.5 against NZ
and Sharks 1.90 against Raiders

[angelo63]

Still a little early to get too excited about these games as we just don't know who will be available after City Country and the test match. Cowboys are a good price but have a few on duty this week so they would have to come back unscathed.

Dogs v Manly will be a grudge match as the Manly players will get to show Des what he is missing, I am leaning towards Manly here but again will wait.

Storm face their nemesis at home in the Warriors who have a great record at AAMI with the Storm only winning 1 out of the last 5 games there against the Warriors. The Warriors physical game always worries the Storm and if the Kiwi players make it to Melb without injury i will be on the Warriorrs.

Sharks playing the Raiders in Canberra has been a good math for me over the years , the Sharks have been dogs on most visits and have won 8 out of the last down here. I will wait until closer to match time and see who the Raiders will play at 5/8 now Campese is out for the year. Fensom will be back for that match and the Raiders will be up for this one.

The Dragons should win against the Roosters but these matches on Anzac day are always close so ill leave it.
Eeels and Tigers offers no value, Tigers too short and most likely too good.
Knights defence will nearly hold the Panthers to nil or the 3rd game in a row, the issue is can the Knights score 3 tries ?

[angelo63]

I have a big bet on AUS...Good luck Angelo.

Me to omate i also had a decent size bet at the ML of 1.40, cant see the Kiwis matching it or too long after the rough stuff is over in the first 15, the class in the backs for the Aussies is the best on show for a few years now with INglis and Hodges both fit, Taylor, Inglis and Boyd down the left flank , while Thaiday, Hodges and Uate attack the right and of course the spine of Slater, Thurston , Cronk and Smith to direct traffic around. This one is Lock 2 for the year after the Cowboys last week.

I will say Brett Morris should be on the wing for Boyd, Morris is in Career best form atm
Good Luck

[kingsr]

Me too on the ML! I managed to get 1.38...dry weather forecast which will suit aus smaller team. NZ have big boppers but as u said once the game settles, aus will run riot.

[angelo63]

Round 8/ Result play 53

Play 53: 3 unit play on Australia Minus 8 . Push

Season to Date: 53 Plays: 24 Wins 28 Losses 1 P Total 1.13 Unit Loss




Play 54 : 2 Unit Play on Dragons minus 6 @ 1.84
Play 55:2 Unit play on Warriors ML@ 3.10

Good Luck to all

[angelo63]

Play 56 : Play is a 4 unit Play on Manly @ -2 Line@ 2.01
Manly come off a home loss to the Titans which would have been the lowest point of the year thus far. Manly have been looking forward to this clash since Des Hasler left the northern beaches late last year to take on the Bulldogs coaching role.
Hasler has transformed the Bulldogs into a strong mobile and very physical outfit. Big Sam Kasiano has been the form prop of the NRL and he has had some strong allies up front in Tolman, Graham and of course Pritchard. The Dogs lack class in the halves and Keating whilst workmanlike is still not a good organizer , whilst Reynolds has been impressive he also lacks any organizing skills.
Manly on the other hand have DTE who will be keen for a big match after sitting on the bench during the Anzac test. Manly are also missing personnel with big T-Rex and Foran missing from this game but the return of Glenn Stewart will see the Manly attack flourish down the right flank. Brett Stewart an Foran are very likely to make an appearance tonight and that should get Manly over the line.

[kingsr]

Good luck bro. I'm a dogs supporter and I have $200 on manly myself

It's the best bet on the board tonight, across all codes.

[angelo63]

Good luck bro. I'm a dogs supporter and I have $200 on manly myself

It's the best bet on the board tonight, across all codes.

Great bet tonight, with the Stewart bros back Manly will be too strong, Foran is still a chance to play but with or without him the Sea Eagles should be too good. The Dogs are just missing the smart half to organize them and structure their plays. I hope you fare better on your team as i backed Collingwood last week against my team the Blues and came up empty.

Great win by the Magpies on Wed though and good to see you collect, There must be something said about trading out of a game at 1.01 . Magpies and Roosters both traded at 1.01 on Wedensday and you would have been mad not to trade out, for an insurance bet of $10 to cover a $1,000 stake its worthwhile not to have to live through the agony of a close finish or even worse if your a Roosters supporter lose your money!!

Good luck tonight , i also am on the Blues to crush the Reds and again against Carlton backing Freo at home at the 2.40.

[kingsr]

Yes Free represents great value against Carl.

I don't use Betfair, I take it thats where it traded at 1.01? I do have a betfair account but I only used it once. Was turned off they charged me $40 for a deposit (2k i think) and then took 5% of my winnings....I was put off!

[angelo63]

Yes Free represents great value against Carl.

I don't use Betfair, I take it thats where it traded at 1.01? I do have a betfair account but I only used it once. Was turned off they charged me $40 for a deposit (2k i think) and then took 5% of my winnings....I was put off!

Yeah i use Poli for deposits so that is free, and you can whittle away your commision % with turnover, anyway since we are on the topic, I rang to place a bet ON WBA last Sat night at the odds of 14 when it was 0-0 , i gave the guy my bet, he placed it and said it was an 8 second delay..at the six second mark he says" oh no we just missed it" WBA just scored. The quicker we can bet live on the net the happier ill be. I have been able to place live bets on Pinny and that has been great, On the PC live click and im on, although they are not doing live bets on the NRL or AFL .

[kingsr]

What a game! I feel dirty betting on manly but I'll take the cash! Gotta commend their gutsy effort!

Nice cash bro

[angelo63]

Round 10

Play 57 : Play is a 4 unit Play on Manly @ -2 Line@ 2.


Manly have the Stewart bros in form and firing as well as Cherry Evans returning to form while Brisbane are missing Wallace and possibly a couple of others, Manlys record in Brisbane is very good and they boast a 6-3 advantage over the last 9 meetings. Brisbane may be on a little downer of form after the loss to the Warriors whilst Manly played with this match in mind last week against the Raiders. I see Manly winning this one by around 8 - 10 points.

Good Luck to all

[s2230011]

Where did you go ??

[angelo63]

Round 11 Play 58

Play 58: 3 Units on Warriors ML @ 1.91

Warriors should be too strong with the Tigers missing Heigington, Ellis and Farrah their three best forwards, The Warriors pack should pave the way for the likes of Johnson and Hurrell to win this tryfest.




20 favs out of 24 games in the last three weeks, has not left a lot of value for us to bet on, last 3 bets have been pushes which indicates its a very tight comp, looking to cash during this origin series with some generous lines being available, strong leans towards Cowboys, Sea Eagles and Rabbitohs this weekend....

[angelo63]

Round 11 PLays 59,60 & 61

Play 59: 3 Units on Cowboys -6 line @ 1.91
Play 60: 3 Units on Sea Eagles -6 line @ 1.91
Play 61: 3 Units on Rabbitohs ML @ 2.00

Cowboys missing some bug guns but Bowen will step up and with Thompson and Segyaro the spine still looks sharp, Lewis is the big out for Panthers , The Cowboys are definite top 4 team and they will be able to cover the smallish line here.

Sea Eagles lose Stewart Bros to origin but have Foran back , the are top notch at Brookie and like to punish the Roosters when the venture over the bridge.

Rabbitohs have also lost Inglis and Taylor but Merritt moves into Fullback and Burgess can lead the way again, Dragons are out of form and missing 6 players , the forward battle is where the Rabbits will triumph.

Good Luck to all

[angelo63]

Round 11 Play 62

Play 62: 3 Units on Sharks ML @ 3.20

No time for write up but great value here.