benrama AFL and NRL finals 2011

[IDunno89]

I honestly knew all along he wouldnt play. It's too risky! I know people who have had same surgery, they told me almost impossible that he plays, to play would be stupid!

Mmmm i was 90% sure he would play....
But I'm wrong.... Sad way to end a terrific career.... Don't think broncos can win without him... I was wrong about him playing so prob wrong about this 2....

[astrobloke]

Very good analysis lads regarding lockyer.

But I think right now, Broncos morale is high and seeing lockyer on the news last night its seems he is leaning more towards playing this game.

Lockyer is young and years from now, he will be sitting back in his chair kicking himself for not playing or giving it a go even though he is injured....and I am sure he doesnt want to be older and retired with regrets. Or when he is wriiting his book, wondering what was, or if he could of helped his team win the finals. That is the lockyer I know.

So I think he will play this game. But Not sure he will be his Lockyer 100% best.

He is a tough little bugger.... and it will be a tough one to have a punt on.

[astrobloke]

Mmmm i was 90% sure he would play....
But I'm wrong.... Sad way to end a terrific career.... Don't think broncos can win without him... I was wrong about him playing so prob wrong about this 2....

Broncos have many over rated players...and I mean tons of them!!!

Lockyer is not one of them, that is for sure.

I just think he doesnt want to be a retired player with regrets.

Right now he is probably thinking better to give it a go and risk it all, rather than sit on the sidelines..... and wish he was out there!!!

He has to be in Sydney by Thursday if he wants to play, and I think he will be there....the swelling on his eye looks pretty bad though.

[IDunno89]

He is in sydney already from what I just read....

[IDunno89]

He is in sydney already from what I just read.... And your right Lockyer holds that team together IMO Wallace is an over rated joke.... Gillet to play 5/8 any thoughts?

[astrobloke]

He is in sydney already from what I just read....

I was not sure, but thanks for confirming buddy.

That tells me, he will play then. He would not go all that way to pull out.

Yes, some good broncos players, but 90% of them are over rated and useless. I laugh at some of the tackles they try and plays they try to do. Even saw lockyer shaking his head at some of the player a few games ago, probably thinkin STOOPID... STOOPID look what I have to work with!!! LOL

[IDunno89]

Bro he has announced he is not playing.... Read above ^^^

[maroona]

Pinnacle still have Manly -4.5 if your interested

[IDunno89]

Ahhh don't have pinnacle monies

[maroona]

Ahhh don't have pinnacle monies

Open an account, quickly

[maroona]

Wow they are juicing the hell out of it though, gone from -127 to -145 in about 10 mins

[IDunno89]

FML.... need to get pinnacle account for the future times like this

[benrama]

Whoah! HUGE news, I'm really really surprised by this; just thought that Lockyer would play with one eye, and half a leg if he had to - I think it was the risk to the eyesight that really would have been the clincher - too much to risk for a game no matter how important.

Pinny now has the odds back up to +-7, and I wonder if this is an over-reaction. I still rate the Broncs side, and you can be bet they will be still fired up to try to get to the GF for their leader. They've won 8 games in a row to get to this point, and get Thaiday back for this match. They still have 5 players from the SOO team: Thaiday, Hodges, Yow Yeh, Hannant, Parker.

And I think a future rep player in Reed.

Manly are without Williams (season) and Stewart/Lussick till the GF, and looked pretty ordinary in their 1st half against NQ. They are coming off a bye which historically teams have had some trouble with.

I think as is often the case there is an over-reaction going on here, giving Brisbane 7 points head start is huge, I'd be shocked if it isn't back down to 6 or 6.5 come game time, once people step back and realise the talent that Brisbane still have.

That's just my opinion though - see I'm in the minority here :P

[benrama]

I'm locking this in now - the line of +4.5 was already generous I thought given that Lockyer would play injured - getting an extra 2.5 points is too hard to resist. I think this comes down before game time.

NRL finals week 3

2X Brisbane +7 @ $1.95

Will likely also have a play on Brisbane 1H as well.

[hawley]

Im glad he is out, I like the Broncos even more now believe it or not.

Although its the finals and motivation is not needed Brisbane will be playing so hard to get a win for Lockyer.

As much as I ridicule Peter Wallace maybe he gets it done this weekend.

At first glance ill be all over that spread.

[kingsr]

Shop around, im seeing 7.5 at a few books.

[benrama]

Yep 7.5 at Centrebet now as we speak. If I can get the line to +8 I'll put putting another unit on it, in my experience nearly every time there is an over-reaction like this to a star player being out the over-reaction is shown to be way off the money. Already happened a few times this year, but can't remember right now which ones (I think one was a NQ game when the line jumped up about 5-6 points?)

[hawley]

Now by now means am I trying to compare Basketball and League but I have found the last few seasons it to be a very profitable angle backing a team when their "star" is out.

Majority of bets will flow in for Manly with this news so I think the line might adjust more.

[kingsr]

I like the line for Bris for sure now. But at 4.5 i didn't like it at all. Good luck Beni, im taking Manly 1-12, so hopefully we can both cash!

[benrama]

hawley - I've see the same thing with the NBA too, the injured star theory, it works not so much because teams actually are better off without their superstar, but we are dealing with team sports here and other players can rise to the occasion, so once the over-reaction has pushed the line high enough the value is all with the team effected.

kingsr - cool mate, that's not a bad bet, I think that Manly -5.5 is about the true "right" line.

[maroona]

Have to agree, I think its a massive over-reaction, couldn't resist having something on Manly-4.5 while Pinny still had it up, but no way I'd be taking them -7.5 or -8, Sportingbet now have it at 8, surely it can't go higher, hope so though, might have to back the Broncos now and try and get a nice middle

[benrama]

The line is at +-7.5 but really that is no difference to +-7, it's very, very rare that the hook makes the difference in this situation. At +8 I would be adding more units but as is I will leave the bet on the original line.

At this stage I am likely to lock in a 5X bet on Pies/Cats, playing them sequentially on the ML to get the bets odds via Pinnacle.

Also likely to bet 2X on Pies/Cats/Storm, but waiting till late tomorrow to pull the trigger on both of these.

[benrama]

Here she is, one of the most exciting weekends of footy in the year! Top 4 teams from both codes slugging it out in the next 48 hours, feel like a kid at Christmas - can't bloody wait!

Here are my final plays:

NRL finals week 3

2X Brisbane +7 @ $1.95
1X Storm -7@ $1.95

Brisbane - explained a few times now, you can't write off a team with 5 state of origin players. I don't personally rate Gillett as a replacement for Lockyer, and think Hunt is the better choice, but that substitute will happen during the game if need be. Wallace has his moments as well as playmaker.

I think what is being over-looked for this game, is that it's not like Brisbane will be business as usual without Lockyer, and try to turn Gillett into a superstar; instead, they will have a different gameplan, and to compensate for Lockyer they will turn to the Brisbane pack in Glenn/Parker/Thaiday, who are a scary combo for any defense, and will keep pounding yards up the middle. These guys are some of the best in the game at getting offloads and second-phase opportunities, so if they can keep that up this game they will put points on the board. It doesn't take much skill to pass the ball to them with a head of steam, any fool can do that, so I think Gillett may become somewhat of a non-issue.

Manly have inexperienced halves who looked shaky against the Cowboys before coming good in a big way in the 2H; they have a quality side no doubt about it, but 7 points head-start is a lot to be giving an equally quality team like Brisbane. I think it's an over-reaction and I'll take it.

Storm - I'm playing the favourite here for more simplistic reasons, because I think they are the type of team that really frustrates the Warriors. Disciplined, well coached, with penalties and mistakes few and far between. I always gave the Warriors a chance against the Tigers because they can both be erratic and anything was possible. The Storm, instead are clinical, they will do the same thing to the Warriors they did to Newcastle, just beat them slowly and methodically, complete tackle counts and wait till the Warriors give them the scoring opportunities. Wouldn't be surprised to see this game over at half-time.


AFL finals week 3

4X Collingwood/Storm @ $1.81
1.5 X West Coast 1H +14.5 @ $1.92
1 X West Coast +28.5 @ $2.02

Should have jumped on the multi earlier, but will still take them at these odds. I'll actually be getting slightly better lines as I'll be playing these sequentially, but I'll list it at what's available on Pinnacle right now (WCE 1H line is from Sportsbet/Centrebet)

Pies will outclass the Hawks, I'm convinced of that. I've gone through all the stats and match-ups on this one, but it comes down to simply the Pies having more quality players (Thomas, Pendlebury, Harry, Davis, Swan, Reid ...) than Hawthorn, having the better coach, the experience of doing it last year, and the psychological edge. Hawks were no match for them when they met earlier in the season beating them by 41 points, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a similar result here. Expect Hawthorn to keep it interesting in the 1H, but for the Pies to run away with it in the 3Q.

Originally I was going to have the Cats in my multi but I've changed my mind; in fact I'm tipping a potential upset here - more on that in a bit. I originally told myself I wasn't going to include a NRL team in a big multi but I've also changed my mind on that too. When I looked at all the games objectively and hand on heart had to say which two teams I would, with a gun to my head, pick for the GF, Pies/Storm came out clear winners. These teams know how to get it done on the big stage, and in my opinion would win their respective games at least 8 out of 10 times - so there's real value on the multi on them.

I've kept my multi to 4X as I don't want to go super crazy here, but I'm very, very confident we'll be seeing the Pies and Storm come grand final day next weekend.

As for the Cats, well, consider me still in the boat of people that think they are over-rated. And now they are getting -28.5 points against a team that beat them by 8 points in their only meeting in the season? Yes I realise this was at one of the hardest places to play in the AFL, Subiaco, but MCG and finals experience is worth a 36 point swing? I'm not buying it.

Originally I thought West Coast played their grand final against Carlton, but they have such a young side I see no reason why they can't - physically and mentally - back up again for tomorrow's game. And they have a bloody talented side. Cox and Nit-Nat nullify Ottens at the ruck, and Lynch and Kennedy are a menace at FF/HF. We all know what talent the Cats have but I think the Eagles are still being seriously under-valued here, and I wouldn't be surprised to see them come close to an upset.

West Coast 1H has been the gravy train for me all year, and this could be the last time for me to jump aboard, so I'm putting 2.5X on the game all up with 1.5X on half-time spread and 1X on the full game spread.

That's it for the weekend plays, good luck all! Tail at your own risk, and as always cap your own plays! I did pick Sydney last week remember

[astrobloke]

Nice write up and analysis benny boy.

Tailing you on the west COKE eagles.

Everyman and his pet monkey are predicting geelong to win, and while they are a good team, I am going contrarian, and taking the west coke lads to win in a very close one.

Good luck to those punting

To all the bookies reading this, we coming after ya!!!

[kingsr]

I actually disagree on the cokeheads, although they may cover that line. Good luck bookie robbers!

[astrobloke]

You might be right there. We shall see. Not going overboard on the AFL this weekend. Will be next weekend....you betcha!

thx buddy, You too. This weekend gunna be epic. Rob them bookies blind...

[Lookingtostart]

Cool benrama, you've almost convinced me on both eagles 1st half and spread.

[peterw111]

Whatever your'e bets are for tonight GOOD LUCK ALL....................


GO BRONCOS....... Here we go......

PS. If D.Lockyer is a big loss for the Broncos then what happens when B.Stewart limps off after 14 minutes with another knee injury and in the 33rd minute S,Mattei gets sent off for MISCONDUCT...... Food 4 thought.....

[kingsr]

Yeak OK Peter

[Pride]

hawks gonna win lol

[kingsr]

hawks gonna win lol

Prepared to make that call this early

Hilarious!

[benrama]

Mumma said there'd be weekends like this!

After being up 12.7 units coming into this weekend, it's a big 0-5, losing 9.5 units.

Can't say I've been that 100% wrong too many times before. Thought Brissy game would be close and it was a blow-out; thought Pies game would be a blow-out and it was a nail biter; thought West Coast game would be close and Geelong murdered them; thought Storm would be too good and Warriors played an awesome game to win!

Time to lick my wounds and be happy with 3 odd units profit from the finals campaign.

Early thoughts on the grand finals are that Geelong at even odds against the Pies is crazy odds, as they have been by far the better team; also feels like Manly will win easily against the Warriors. Therefore, pick Pies and Warriors to win!

Great games this weekend - Pies vs Hawks in particular was an incredible contest - and I really don't get too upset at my losses, had a great year and have to be philosophical about it.

Thanks to all for contributing to the thread, going to miss football when it finishes this weekend