benrama AFL and NRL finals 2011

[benrama]

Starting a thread here to track my plays throughout the finals.

Don't have time for write-ups for these first plays, though my reasoning is scattered throughout the threads here. All odds are Pinnacle odds as of time of posting.

AFL finals week 1

4X Sydney +17.5 @ $2.02
1X Sydney ML @ $3.10
2X Cats/Storm parlay @ $2.11

NRL finals week 1

1X Brisbane/Pies @ $2.04

[kingsr]

I like it! Good luck Ben!

[benrama]

Thanks mate, you too, should be an epic weekend of sporting action!

[kingsr]

Nice start Beni

[maroona]

Thanks mate, you too, should be an epic weekend of sporting action!

Yeah mate can't believe this weekend, AFL, NRL, NFL, college football, US open tennis, rugby world cup, MLB, F1 grand prix, is there anything I missed

[donkson]

EPL

[kingsr]

EPIC WINNING here

[dRavidC]

wow congrats mate. everybody is having a smashing weekend!!!!!!!!!

[benrama]

Haha, thanks fellas! Can't ask for a better start, just need the Storm to finish it off today. I'm also considering making a 1H play on the Knights, I think the pattern of 1st half struggle, 2nd half dominance by the stronger team continues.

That Saints game was hard to watch - some seriously ugly football going on. As a Saints supporter, but with a huge wager on the Swans, I didn't know what to support some of the time Was hoping for a single digit Saints win in the end, but they just crumbled. I never held hope for them, and I think they need a complete revamp. Get rid of Riewoldt, and get some decent full forward presence. The defense was solid all year, and midfield "good enough", Saints just couldn't score, simply as that.

Have gone 5-0 on RWC bets too and playing all the dogs again today, could be a weekend to remember!

[MrXYZ]

F*n great call on the Swans/Saints, congrats on the weekend so far. Good luck today.

[benrama]

AFL finals week 1

4X Sydney +17.5 @ $2.02
1X Sydney ML @ $3.10
2X Cats/Storm parlay @ $2.11

NRL finals week 1

1X Brisbane/Pies @ $2.04

4-0 for 9 units, now that's what I call a fkin ripper weekend!

Have gone 7-0 on the RWC as well, betting all dogs and the Fiji/Namibia over (thanks guys in Beni's thread), so that makes 11 winning bets in a row - can't remember a week of such epic winning in a long, long time.

It's my monthly time to cash out too, so timing is perfect. Suffice to say the wife will be happy, and I'll be getting some quality beers and Johnny walker blue for next weekend

[Beniphone]

Very nicely done, grats

[astrobloke]

Benrama,

Congrats mate. Pat on back!

A Johnny Walker blue label! Wow!...Nice

But you deserve it!!! =>

Robbin bookies is fun!!

[benrama]

OK, I have my Johnny Blue for tonight (3 cubes of ice, wait for 10mins before drinking - perfect), some Coopers pale ale to kick things off, and am ready for some bookie crushing!

My first play for tonight is:

NRL finals week 2

1.5X Warriors +8.5
I really wanted to take the Tigers here - they have the momentum, the form and seem destined to make the grand final. With the Warriors beaten by 30 last week, and the RWC taking away from their home support (with the All Blacks playing in an overlapping time slot tonight), they are entitled to have a flat finals campaign. I also questions their mental strength come finals time.

That said.

Putting the Broncos aberration aside, the Warriors have only lost three games all year by more than 8 points, and only once since round 6.

R3: lost to St George by 13 (at home)
R6: lost to Manly by 10 (at Brookvale)
R15: lost by 20 to NQ (at Willows)

It's clear from this and the Brisbane game that the Warriors struggle in front of a hostile home crowd; however this game is being played at the SFS, which will be dominated by Tigers fans but will be nothing like the suburban atmosphere of Campbelltown or Leichhardt.

Warriors will also have been embarrassed by last weekend, and I expect them to come out tonight with a point to prove that they are a better side than what they showed - which they are.

Warriors and Tigers are evenly matched in stats, with similar attacking and defensive numbers. I initially leaned to the over in points on this one two, but with a finals sudden death atmosphere I think the line of 42.5 is about right.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Tigers to win this one in a thriller, so will take my chances with Warriors +8.5.

AFL finals week 2

Current lean is: 2X Swans +14.5
Still waiting to see team news from today, and likely to wait till near game time to pull the trigger; will have a brief write up on the game later.

[astrobloke]

Johnny Blue is the good sheeet!! Nice You deserve it bloke.

Nice synopsis. Another big weekend at the helm here! I already took the swans, and bronos, and still deciding on the rest. I am sure we will see some good clashes.

Lets rob dem' bookies good!

Good luck benny boy!!

[benrama]

Thanks bro! JWB for $180 at Dan Murphy's, not a bad deal. A Glendronach 25 or 31 yr old wouldn't be bad either, but you have to head to the shores of Ireland for that quality drop.

Definitely leaning Broncos -3.5 too, just going to spend a bit more time looking into it.

Here's to another WINNING weekend!

[kingsr]

Jonnie Blue is best drunk with no ice imo....jonnie green is great and a much nicer taste poured over ice! Im a HUGE jonnie fan!

On another note, i really like the warrior with the start. I didnt think it would be that HIGH, i expectecd it at 5.5. Good Im playing Tigers 1-12 $3.00 Good Luck all! And happy jonnie drinking

[benrama]

Used to drink it straight too, just prefer the flavour when slightly chilled. Haven't had much of the green, tends to be Red for quaffing or Blue for enjoying - with the people I drink with at least!

If Warriors can get 3 tries here, which I think they have a good shot of, then covering that +8.5 spread is going to be a real tough ask. I think it gives some live hedging opportunities too if they get ahead.

[kingsr]

Yep red n black is perfect for mixing with coke etc.

[benrama]

Updated card:

NRL finals week 2

1.5X Warriors +8.5 @ $1.95
Write-up above

3X Broncos ML @ 1.68
1.5X Broncos -3.5 @ $1.93
This is Lockyear's swansong and the Brisbane ground will be pumping on Saturday night. When a crowd atmosphere is electric it is worth almost 4-6 points, just in the lift in provides the home side, pressure it puts on the refs and away side. Look at what happened to the Storm when they went to Brookvale.

Bennett has checked out of the Saints for 2011 and this young Brisbane talent (in particular Glenn and Reed) are top quality, and have showed they are not awed by finals football. I like Brisbane by 6-8 points but will do both a ML and ATS bet in case there is a backdoor cover.

NRL future

1X Brisbane to win the premiership @ $6.15

Simple reasoning: seeing as I like them to win this week, I will take them at these odds to beat a Stewart-less Eagles and make the GF, where at worst they'll be $2.30-2.40 type dogs.

AFL finals week 2

2X Swans +15.5
I've over researched this game, and gone back and forward on it a few times - with the line now at +15.5 I have to take the Swans. Yes I could actually see a Hawks blow-out here, there's a reason Hawks finished in the top 3, and 1st round aside, they've only lost to the top 2 sides this year. They comfortable beat the Swans last time they played, albeit with a healthy Buddy.

I actually think if Buddy plays it will be a disadvantage to the Hawks, they will be consistently looking for him, and having an injury during a finals game has consistently shown to be a liability.

Swans have some key matchup advantages over the Hawks in Goodes and Mumford; I think the Hawks have the better midfield but if Swans can keep that area close, they can be the better team in the forward line and back line. Swans are statistically much better than the Hawks in contested possessions, clearances and tackles and I think that bodes well for them getting good ball midfield and winning a lot of the 50/50 ball.

The last two games by these teams at the MCG were decided by a combined total of 13 points, less than the spread for this game.

Even if Sydney can't win here I see them making a real fight of it and keeping it close.

[Lookingtostart]

I actually think if Buddy plays it will be a disadvantage to the Hawks, they will be consistently looking for him, and having an injury during a finals game has consistently shown to be a liability.

They play like a very balanced football team without buddy, with him, they're too buddy conscious, he has been better at not giving away frees lately but still, I like teams that share the goal scoring.

Line moving away from swans, the closing line might be a good play.

[benrama]

Swans are being monstered tonight, and are playing as bad as I've seen them - late steam was on the money - bad call on this one.

[astrobloke]

I had em too. Damn swanies

Its all good Benny boy we can make up for it bloke.

but I hate having a good week, and then bad weekend. Sux.

Lets hope this trend does not continue.

[benrama]

I was about to reverse my initial lean and play Hawks, but oh well - can't win 'em all!

Don't think I can jinx the Warriors at this stage, so the night is not all bad.

[Lookingtostart]

I still like your write-up benrama, keep them coming. Swans were killed by the umpires, the game should have been a lot closer. The holding the ball decisions and non-decisions were ridiculous.

[benrama]

Thanks LTS, yea the umpiring was killing the Swans in the 1H, but evened up in the 2H- really didn't determine the game as the Hawks were the better team, and Swans had a real shocker - any team but a Port would have probably beaten the Swans in the 1H. They should be a little bit embarrassed at the way they played - 2nd year in a row now they've done this in the 2nd round of the finals.

Still think they have a good young team to build on and should challenge for the top 4 next year.

Interested to see what the Hawks v Pies line is for next week, hoping to get the Pies less than -15, Hawks will not come close to the Pies, pretty convinced of that.

[astrobloke]

Yes benny, I remember them choking last year and just as I bet That was in the back of my mind. They can be a little inconsistant, and that showed last night.

I am also leaning more on the pies too, that is a good bet I think, but will wait a bit more.

Keep up the good work Benrama, the weekend has only just started. :-) lots of action here. Cant wait.

[kingsr]

Well done to NZ warriors and to those that backed warriors! Not even the refs could help the tigers win the game!

[benrama]

@kingsr, yea umpiring/refereeing was shocking last night in both games! Fortunately it didn't decide either result. I'd be nervous about it if I was a St George or Carlton though, almost like there's been "a call" to get the top sides through to next week.

Another day, another chance to get back on track. Mind you, only down 0.5 units from last night, not too bad, a relief when you feel like early on you are going to be buried.

I remember reading on Bigfooty the stats on how strong top 4 teams come back after a loss in the first week, I should have taken this more seriously.

So in that vein, and given that West Coast 1H has been the $ for me all year, my final card for today is:

NRL

3X Broncos ML @ 1.68
1.5X Broncos -3.5 @ $1.93

AFL

2X West Coast 1H -8.5 @ $1.92
1X West Coast/Brisbane @ $2.38

Suffice to say if Brisbane don't win tonight I'm in for a bad weekend, but I don't mind picking my spots and this is one where I have to back the Broncos at home. West Coast game could end up tight late, and they are notorious for 2H jitters, so I'm not confident in the full game spread now it's at -16.5.

[kingsr]

Nice write up! I'm on very similar plays too, as the Astro says " Let's rob dem bookies"

[Bazz27]

Worse ref display ive seen, hayne made some terrible bad calls against the warriors - but no excuses tigers to let an 18-6 score slip

[hawley]

Worse ref display ive seen, hayne made some terrible bad calls against the warriors - but no excuses tigers to let an 18-6 score slip

Benji running the ball on the 5th with 5 minutes to go was the ultimate downfall IMO.

Time and a place to play with flair and chance your arm. Also a time and place to put the ball in the corner and force the Warriors to go 90m instead of 50m.

Either way we get the win and another chance.

[benrama]

Yea, Tigers just didn't want to play the % game there at the end and it cost them. Agree about that Benji run on the 5th hawley - I was just thinking WTF Benji??! You're the ones AHEAD by 2 not behind.

Shame because I think they would have given the Storm a real run for their money and now I think it'll just be one sided.

Anyways, off to the beach to enjoy some rays before a solid evening of sport. BOL today fellas!

[Lookingtostart]

Good call on the Eagles game, I was sure they were going to cover full time but you picked the 1st half well. Close game, I can hardly breathe.

[benrama]

NRL finals week 2
1.5X Warriors +8.5 @ $1.95
3X Broncos ML @ 1.68
1.5X Broncos -3.5 @ $1.93
1X Brisbane to win the premiership @ $6.15 Pending

AFL finals week 2

2X Swans +15.5
2X West Coast 1H -8.5 @ $1.92
1X West Coast/Brisbane @ $2.38

Week 2 result: 4-2, 3.7 units


Nice, easy wins there for Brisbane and West Coast

Two of the best games of footy of the year on one night, the remote control was getting a workout. You couldn't have scripted the Broncos v Saints game better, Broncos should have won that game easily but you could just tell if Saints could keep it within 1 try they'd make it interesting. For Lockyear to then get that field goal was an epic moment, one for the story books.

West Coast showed again they have those 2H issues when ahead in a game, and how about that clock at the end of the game? I swear there would have been an inquiry had Carlton got up, those final few minutes felt like 20. You got a sense that this was both teams grand final, and they'll be sore and beaten up for next week. If you were Geelong you'd have been licking your lips for next weekend.

Pies/Cats/Storm multi for next weekend pays $2.30 on Centrebet, that will almost certainly be a play.