Aussie Rules (AFL) picks

[DHB]

Will be posting my AFL plays here.
Starting at [Round 11] this coming weekend.

Still watching the line movements, will post later in the week.

[benrama]

Welcome to the madness, good luck with your thread!

[DHB]

Welcome to the madness, good luck with your thread!

thanks mate.

[DHB]

[Round 11]

Friday 03/06

Essendon v Melbourne - Melbourne+27.5 @1.87

[binomial]

looks the play to me too. GL.

[Bic]

Melbourne are good value this week, but can't put my money on a team with terrible forward line issues.

[DHB]

[Round 11]

Friday 03/06

Essendon v Melbourne - Melbourne+27.5 @1.87

Score: 68-101 WIN
Bank: +.87 units

[DHB]

[Round 11]

Saturday 04/06

West Coast v Gold Coast - G.C+65.5 @1.98
Brisbane v Sydney - Sydney @1.97

[DHB]

Melbourne are good value this week, but can't put my money on a team with terrible forward line issues.

no issues in the forward line tonight

[binomial]

thinking about playing WC 1-39 $4.80.

GC look understaffed and will probably get flogged but chance WC come out flat after last week and price is tempting.

[donkson]

I think the Eagles forward line will cause some huge problems for GC, I hate betting on 10 goal plus lines though.

[kingsr]

Nice start! I'm liking the swans here too!

[GroundnPound]

I like the Gold Coast spread a lot

[benrama]

Good call on Melbourne, they brought their A-game last night. Thanks to Carlton for firing the Demons up, nice bit of gamesmanship on their behalf and it worked!

Like the Swans also but can't trust them enough away from home. Considering a PYOL multi on Sydney +20 ish.

[DHB]

[Round 11]

Saturday 04/06

West Coast v Gold Coast - G.C+65.5 @1.98
Brisbane v Sydney - Sydney @1.97

Score:
W.C v G.C 85-67 WIN
Brisbane v Sydney 51-116 WIN
BANK +2.82 units

[DHB]

[Round 11]

Sunday 05/06

Hawthorn v Fremantle - Hawthorn-32.5 @1.93
Port Adelaide v Carlton - Carlton-27.5 @1.98

[DHB]

knew W.C would win, but not by 66 points. G.C are getting better each week. it would be hard for teams to beat them by 60+ points now.
good day today

[benrama]

Great start to your thread mate! Like both your plays for today.

[binomial]

GL.

Wet and windy in Adelaide will make it tough for Carlton to cover if Port show up IMO. However, port rarely show up so...

[DHB]

thanks guys.

Hawks couldn't cover today.
odds on Carlton game has dropped, spread is now -25.5 @2.04

@binomial, thats why odds have increased so much since last night.
still think they are too strong for Port tho.

i'm gonna take em at that price, running a labby line so only play games which start one after another.

[Brian891]

ground n pound is on power ml, which worries me. am i missing anything? did line move because of weather or are there other factors involved? could financial trouble somhow be motivating factor for power?

[benrama]

Line has dropped due to weather and motivation. Carlton will be too good though, the line has dropped enough for me to like them, now -25.5 at Pinny.

[DHB]

[Round 11]

Sunday 05/06

Hawthorn v Fremantle - Hawthorn-32.5 @1.93
Port Adelaide v Carlton - Carlton-27.5 @1.98

Score:
Hawthorn v Fremantle 111-89 LOSS
Port Adelaide v Carlton 49-111 WIN

Blues proved to be too strong despite bad weather conditions. glad i got them at 2.04.
so thats 4 out of 5 for round 11, not bad at all

BANK +2.86 units (level stakes)
i'm running a labby line so my actual bank is a bit more.

[benrama]

Amazing the final score in that Carlton game, given how competitive Port were looking. Must be deflating for the Port team, shame they have a bye this week, would have been a great opportunity to fade them almost no matter what the spread. They are playing the Eagles in Perth the week after, and if the line is anything under 30 I'm on it.

Good to see another person that uses labby lines. You use standard Labby or reverse Labby? What's your starting line look like?

[maroona]

Amazing the final score in that Carlton game, given how competitive Port were looking. Must be deflating for the Port team, shame they have a bye this week, would have been a great opportunity to fade them almost no matter what the spread. They are playing the Eagles in Perth the week after, and if the line is anything under 30 I'm on it.

Good to see another person that uses labby lines. You use standard Labby or reverse Labby? What's your starting line look like?

Sounds like a sex position

Whats a labby line

[DHB]

reverse labby? havent heard of anyone doing that. so u add numbers to the line after a win???

i just use a normal labby, 6 numbers per line

5 5 5 5 5 5

and bet to win not risk, so if odds are 1.9 my bet would be $11.11

labby is something new to me, just started using it.

how do u run ur lines ben?

@maroona, its a money management system try searching the forum. there are guys in the NBA and baseball section with info and links about the system.
thats where i found out about it, im still playing around with it and adjusting it to my needs.

[benrama]

Maroona - well, you're pretty much on the money, labouchere is sports betting numbers porn!

DHB- yea, with reverse labby you basically add to the line when you win and remove a number from either end when you lose.

With the reverse labby you fix how much you are willing to lose, rather than fix how much you want to win (with potentially endless chasing). Just suits my psychology better, and I know at all times how much of my bankroll I have at risk. I usually set my "amount willing to lose" at about 10% of my bankroll.

Reverse labby is also good if you find yourself being streaky rather than grinding (i.e. going 4-0 then 0-4, rather than 1-1, 2-1, 1-2) - which tends to happen for me surprisingly often - you may be different.

I stop my reverse labby when my bet sizing reaches a point I am no longer comfortable betting, usually 5% of my bankroll, never more than 10%.

Say you have a bankroll of $2,000, and you allocated $200 (10%) of it to a reverse labby.

I like a flat line that can absorb 4 losses (which can happen a lot), so would use a line with at least 9-10 numbers, something like:

20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

You only bet based on risk not to win as 1) It keeps things simple and 2) It means you never lose more than your allocated amount

So e.g. if you win 3 times in a row with 1.91 odds

Start: 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
Bet 1: 40 to win 36.40

New line: 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 36.40
Bet 2: 56.40 to win 51.30

New line: 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 36.40 51.30
Bet 3: 71.30 to win 64.90

And the final line is: 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 36.40 51.30 64.90

Total profit: $152.60 versus $109.20 flat betting.

At this point if I won my next bet ($84.90), I'd be close to calling it quits for this line and starting a new one, as I'd then be betting about $100 which is about 5% of my bankroll.

Instead, if I lose the $84.90 bet then my line becomes.
20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 36.40 51.30

At this point you can see that by going 3-1 I would be (approx):

+$68 using reverse labby
+$73 using straight bets

So why on earth would you use a reverse labby?

Well because if I'd gone 4-0 I would be:

$230 using reverse labby
$146 using straight bets

So I'm $5 down in the 3-1 scenario and $84 up in the 4-0 scenario. As a gambler who likes to ride the streaks, I'll take that any time.

When you start a new line and lose 4 straight, it's no worse than losing 4 straight flat betting. So reverse labby is about capitalising on your hot streaks and being about the same as flat betting on your down streaks.

Kind of like having a stop loss in forex trading I guess, where you try to get 2X your profits on your "wins" and only lose 1X on your "losses".

Lines are also generally very short for reverse labby, and easy for me to manage via Notes on my phone or even mentally. I want something I can manage at the pub on a Friday afternoon. I know you can split normal labby lines and all that, but just too much work for me.

[DHB]

thats interesting ben.
thought i'd test it out, so i went back and back tested my AFL plays since i first started my labby lines but using ur reverse labby instead.

18 games, 10 wins 8 losses 55% correct @ average odds of 1.926

+1.37 units (level stakes)
+1.69 units (reverse labby)
+5.27 units (normal labby)

my soccer plays were even worse off, it went into minus units using the reverse labby.
so i think it is definately not for me.

thanks for sharing though

[benrama]

No problem DHB, most people stick with the normal labby, and if you can do it properly and get consistent 55% type numbers you'll get great results.

For me it's about simplicity, fixed downside and the excitement of maximising streaks. I definitely do better with the reverse labby over straight betting and that's all that counts for me.

BOL with your future plays.

[DHB]

[Round 12]

Friday 10/06

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs - STK-11.5 @1.96

[benrama]

Like the play, I'm on it too. Goddard looks to have got over his footballing frontal labotomy, and I expect St Kilda to dominate the midfield. Hoping Riewoldt has a breakthrough game as well.

[cincyhammer]

I like the play on St. Kilda. The over/under is at 170.5. Do you have any thoughts? I am leaning under because the Bulldogs are incredibly average right now.....

[Domestic]

Like the Saints spread, Dogs unbackable at the moment.

[Shifty107]

[Round 12]

Friday 10/06

St Kilda v Western Bulldogs - STK-11.5 @1.96

Damn you got a good number bro. I got 14.5 at TAB.

[DHB]

what a shocking game. saints only won coz the doggies are so shit!

well a win is a win.
good start to round 12 for us Benrama