Congrats on a good night!
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Comment -
Just looking at the early lines in the AFL, and I think I have a BIG multi-bet play coming up in the AFL.
Essendon (to beat Melbourne) / Collingwood (to beat St Kilda) / Carlton (to beat Port Adelaide) @ ~ $1.80
Can't see any of these teams losing. St Kilda may keep it close for much of the game and they seem to get up for the Pies but they will be mentally and physically outclassed - I say this as a sorry Saints supporter for 2011. Carlton should make light weight work of Port even though it's played at AAMI - but for some reason this game makes me the most nervous of the 3 plays (relatively speaking).
Anyone here see any of these teams losing?Comment -
For me, Calton is the banker in this multi! Why dont you take some NRL, like Dragons who are playing Parra?Comment -
I will definitely be doing an NRL multi with the Dragons, looking at a Dragons/Tigers multi at this stage combined with either Essendon Collingwood or Carlton. Going to do some more research on which of these 3 I like the most before locking it in.
For my big multi though I think I'm just going to stick with AFL and these 3 teams. I don't like making big multis with NRL or Union because luck can play such a bigger part, IMO. Dropped balls, lucky bounces, intercepts, bad refereeing, etc - when these type of things lead to tries it can be HUGE. When it leads to a goal in AFL - not near as critical (when one side is clearly better than another).
Also, I have been burnt on multis with the Storm and Crusaders already this season, and had one weekend where I had a 20U swing due to these two losing in the same weekend as 6:1 type favourites. I alternated the two of them in a number of multis, and all the "easy"/ATS ones hit and those were the only two that lost. Even if one of them had won it would have been a profitable weekend, and if both won an epically profitable one. Thankfully I've got the bankroll to absorb these type of losses, but it still hurt, so since then I'm a little gun shy on NRL/Rugby multis.
AFL for me is the most profitable multi-betting sport, and the reason I like it is that:
1) The top 3-4 teams generally give top effort week in and week out. Collingwood, Geelong, Carlton, Essendon I put in this category this season. Just behind them I'd currently put the Eagles if they are playing at Suby.
2) While an inferior team can keep things close for a while, the skill level in AFL is so high that the superior team wins by simply a numbers game - X more contested possessions, inside 50's, scoring shots, etc. Over 1 quarter any team can beat another, over 4 is highly improbable
3) As mentioned above, mistakes here and there are really not that crucial in AFL, so you have a high tolerance for luck going against you. Basketball is similar in this respect, but referees in basketball can influence the game too strongly, and I have some suspicions about the way some NBA games turn out.
4) Generally when a top 3-4 team is playing a mid-tier team you can still get $1.20 type odds. This may not look that good, but again, if you pick your spots, this can be e.g. a tasty combination to another $1.50-$1.60 type play
You still have to pick your spots and be careful with away games. For example, I saw the Richmond v Essendon game as a real possibility of an upset. Not a 50+ point upset mind you
But still a game to be wary of.
I will sometimes Multi in AFL with non top 3-4 teams, as I did with Richmond last weekend, if I think they are in form and warrant it. We saw what happened with that though
It's why I try to keep these bets to 1X-2X max.
All that said, I'd like to hear some devils advocate on how one of the 3 teams above could realistically lose this weekend!Comment -
Agree afl is much easier to cap that's for sure no doubt!!!
Essendon - returning from bye, byes aren't good in afl, history has shown this. Tread carefully.
St kilda - hitting some form and definitely capable of causing an upset here. Again tread careful.
It's never easy!Comment -
not sure bout essendon who lost last game to tigers, then had a bye.
also the dees have players returning from injury.
might be a close game.Comment -
Thanks guys, on capping the Essendon v Melbourne game, and reviewing all the lineups I'm no longer including it as part of a big multi. For all the injuries the Dees have Essendon also have a lot of key people out (incl. Garland, Grimes, Watson), and coming off the bye who knows how they will perform. This game feels like either an Essendon blow-out or a Melbourne upset, not willing to make a large bet on either.
As for the other games I had in the multi:
Collingwood vs St Kilda
I've looked at all the stats and angles on this, but really, look at the team Collingwood are looking at (likely) putting up:
B - Maxwell Tarrant Toovey
HB - Shaw Reid O'Brien
C - Thomas Swan Wellingham
HF - Didak Cloke Sidebottom
F - Krakouer Dawes L.Brown
R - Wood Pendlebury Ball
INT - Davis Beams Buckley
SUB - McCarthy
Enough said, I'm 95%+ confident in a Pies win here. I'm a Saints fan, I've watched every St Kilda game bar 1, I saw the Fremantle win last week (not impressed at all, a win is a win, but Fremantle had a shocker). We have no chance here, sad to say.
Carlton vs Port Adelaide
Carlton have won the last 4 clashes between these teams and they have only lost this season to the two top teams, Geelong and Collingwood, (and in the Geelong game they really should have won). Port Adelaide lost to the Gold Coast. Again, I'm not going to over cap this one. Carlton to dominate.
So that leaves me with Carlton/Collingwood for multi-bet purposes, so what I will be doing this weekend is playing a parlay on these two, and mixing and matching which of these teams I parlay with my "normal" plays.
Plays so far for this weekend:
1X St George / Collingwood / Carlton @ $1.92
3X Collingwood / Carlton @ 1.48
1X Warriors @ 1.75Comment -
Glad I stayed away from the Dons, really surprising result. Only watched the last part of the game but they were really outplayed in the 2H. Dons still won the inside 50's 60-45 surprisingly). I think I'm downgrading them from my Top 4 on that performance - too inconsistent. That leaves me with Geelong/Collingwood/Carlton for multis at juicy 1.10 odds
Fortunately Dragons ended up a tie, just watching the replay shortly, already know the score because I couldn't resist checking updates on my phone (sneaking it in while watching a movie on Fri night - typical degen
)
These games are getting tough to cap at the moment, when you can't even bank on St George to come through against the lowly Eels on the ML.Comment -
yea good call staying away from the Dons.
Pies n Blues look like bankers.Comment -
Haha wooohooo you can thank me later Benrama
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Haha, will do mate! Always have to second think these potential big plays to see if you're missing something. Amazing how many 3-4:1 or better teams are getting up at the moment, dangerous time to be doing multis.
Speaking of which
One more play for today:
1X Collingwood / Warriors +10.5 / Sydney +20.5
I now have 5X on Collingwood in my plays this weekend but feel very comfortable with it. Warriors should win at Sydney but I certainly like them to keep it close at worst. Same with Sydney v Brisbane.
BOL all with your plays today!Comment -
Good luck I have warrior and swans ML and I have the pies in multis
Comment -
1X Warriors @ 1.75
1X Collingwood / Warriors +10.5 / Sydney +20.5 @ $2.06
Up an epic 0.06 UNITS this weekend so far!
Definitely going to have to go out today and spend my winnings 
Disappointed in the Warriors but the Roosters played out of the skins in defense - particularly to keep the Warriors to 1 try in the second half.
Glad I took Sydney +20.5 instead of on the ML, was sweating that one out for the first 15 seconds! Good call on that one kingsr
Waiting on Carlton for today for remaining multis, have a small lean on Souths +8.5 but not sure if I'll pull the trigger on that. If I do it'll be a 0.5X play.Comment -
ben, what were the odds on the Swans+20.5?Comment -
Odds were only about 1.30, no good for anything but a multi. With AFL you can buy yourself about 20-22 points for 1.30 and in Rugby League about 10-12 points.
In games you feel you've capped well you can put together a few of these that can be attractive.Comment -
Back on track this weekend.
Weekend recap:
1X St George / Collingwood / Carlton @ $1.92 (St George was a push, so odds were 1.48)
3X Collingwood / Carlton @ 1.48
1X Warriors @ 1.75
1X Collingwood / Warriors +10.5 / Sydney +20.5 @ 2.06
Weekend record: 3-1, +2 UNITS
Current overall record: 8-8, -0.1 UNITS
Was not overly confident in Carlton watching the game early this evening, but their class came through in the 2H. Final score did flatter them, however.
Some good games in both codes coming up this weekend, but will tread carefully in the NRL given the State of origin 2 coming up. Some nice multi opportunities should be there in the AFL again.
Already have a decent sized, un-posted 7 team multi that has the final leg as Wests to win tomorrow night, so will not be betting on the game. The line keeps going up and is at -10 now. Has to be some value on Newcastle at that price - certainly has made the hedging cheaper, so thanks Wests backers
Comment -
Round 12 AFL lines
St Kilda 1.57 1.92 (-10.5)
Western Bulldogs 2.40 1.92 (+10.5)
Adelaide 2.35 1.92 (+9.5)
West Coast 1.60 1.92 (-9.5)
Gold Coast 3.30 1.92 (+23.5)
North Melbourne 1.33 1.92 (-23.5)
Geelong 1.47 1.92 (-16.5)
Hawthorn 2.70 1.92 (+16.5)
Carlton 1.08 1.92 (-45.5)
Brisbane Lions 8.00 1.92 (+45.5)
Sydney 1.28 1.92 (-22.5)
Richmond 3.72 1.92 (+22.5)
Fremantle 1.77 1.92 (-4.5)
Essendon 2.05 1.92 (+4.5)
Melbourne 5.50 1.92 (+34.5)
Collingwood 1.15 1.92 (-34.5)Comment -
Initial leans for the weekend, liking pretty much all home teams.
St Kilda -10.5, they're off my black list and showed enough against Collingwood (final score didn't do it justice) to think they play strong in this "do or die" type clash.
Adelaide 1H (line of +4/+5 most likely). Eagles do not travel well, and similar to Port Adelaide last week I like Adelaide to come out fired up in front of their home ground and give 100% effort. This is the same side that gave Collingwood and Carlton a run for their money and when they are playing with full motivation they are still a good side. When ...
Gold Coast +23.5, North are winless away from home, and lost to the Lions in their last away game. I like what I saw from the GC against the Eagles, who are very hard to beat at Suby.
Geelong 1H (line of -8/-9 most likely), Geelong are the form team right now and Hawthorn were lucky to escape against Freo. They are strong finishers Hawthorn so like a Geelong 1H play in case the game gets close or in danger of a backdoor cover in the 2H.Last edited by benrama; 06-06-11, 07:45 PM.Comment -
Initial St Kilda, Gold Coast and Geelong lines all moving the way of my initial leans, and Adelaide staying put. Now, if only I knew if that was a good thing or a bad thing
Comment -
I'm actually liking the Kangas this week... Long trip from Perth to Gold Coast.Comment -
Love the GC line!
Benrama, dont through your money on Adelaide bro, fuk adelaide!Comment -
LMAO how much of a sweat was that!?!?! Tigers are terrible, all that drop ball so close to the line was damn frustrating! I too had them as a last leg in a 5 teamer, bu8t I didnt hedge! I thought it was bagged! Tigers gave me heart failure! Robbie Farrah SAVED me lolBack on track this weekend.
Weekend recap:
1X St George / Collingwood / Carlton @ $1.92 (St George was a push, so odds were 1.48)
3X Collingwood / Carlton @ 1.48
1X Warriors @ 1.75
1X Collingwood / Warriors +10.5 / Sydney +20.5 @ 2.06
Weekend record: 3-1, +2 UNITS
Current overall record: 8-8, -0.1 UNITS
Was not overly confident in Carlton watching the game early this evening, but their class came through in the 2H. Final score did flatter them, however.
Some good games in both codes coming up this weekend, but will tread carefully in the NRL given the State of origin 2 coming up. Some nice multi opportunities should be there in the AFL again.
Already have a decent sized, un-posted 7 team multi that has the final leg as Wests to win tomorrow night, so will not be betting on the game. The line keeps going up and is at -10 now. Has to be some value on Newcastle at that price - certainly has made the hedging cheaper, so thanks Wests backers
Comment -
Bic - what's the stats on teams coming from WA, ie win and loss the week after? Will look it up after if you don't have it handy. I'm not super excited about the GC play just feels like a value spot to take them as North have had some good home games but are rubbish away from home.
Kingsr - I know what you mean about Adelaide I almost feel dirty taking them I'm going to read some of the press this week and see what is being said by Craig. This just feels like a similar situation to Port v Carlton last week where Port came out and gave it 100% in the 1H, knowing they needed to show somthing in front of their fans.
As for the Tigers game, well I would have been sweating bullets in that but I hedged out and only had 3U riding on the game in the end. It was a 4U multi paying 13U, I banked the 10U and left 3 to play with. I don't post these multis because they are usually not something I recommend and are usually played under the influence of 6 or more beers!
(It was Germany, hawthorn, Geelong, collingwood, hurricanes, Carlton, tigers, btw)
Any other plays you like for the weekend?Comment -
I like Hawks to keep it close with Gee...Gee will need to lose a game soon wont they? Will it be this week? Swans to cover their line against Tigers (coming back from bye).
League is pure gambling this week imo, i have no read at all with this SOG happening so I might stay away.
Im still looking, I do most of my research thurs night/fri day...have been fairly busy this week :/Comment -
If Geelong was at Skilled park this would be an entirely different equation, but being at the MCG it negates it being a home game for Geelong, definitely conscious of that. Hawthorn struggled to compete with a Fremantle side without Sandilands at the MCG, before coming good in the 4th Q, hence my lean of a similar pattern in this game.
I have just started using http://afl.allthestats.com/index.php however, fantastic site for looking at quarter by quarter, half by half breakdowns, team results at different grounds, etc. Geelong are actually worse starters than what I had thought.
I'll post some stats from the above site and do some analysis in the following post.
Quarters and Halfs WON
# Team Seas First Last Mat 1QW 2QW 3QW 4QW 1HW 2HW
1 Adelaide 1 2011 2011 10 4 5 4 5 4 4
2 Bris Lions 1 2011 2011 10 5 2 6 4 4 4
3 Carlton 1 2011 2011 10 6 6 5 7 5 5
4 Collingwood1 2011 2011 10 6 8 4 9 9 9
5 Essendon 1 2011 2011 10 5 7 6 4 7 5
6 Fremantle 1 2011 2011 10 4 5 6 3 5 4
7 Geelong 1 2011 2011 10 5 7 9 8 5 10
8 Hawthorn 1 2011 2011 10 6 8 5 7 7 7
9 Nth Melb 1 2011 2011 10 5 3 5 5 5 4
10 Melbourne 1 2011 2011 10 3 6 4 4 4 5
11 Port Adel 1 2011 2011 11 4 2 5 3 2 4
12 Richmond 1 2011 2011 10 1 5 4 4 3 5
13 St Kilda 1 2011 2011 10 7 2 4 5 4 6
14 Sydney 1 2011 2011 10 6 7 5 4 6 5
15 W Bulldogs 1 2011 2011 10 6 3 5 4 3 4
16 West Coast 1 2011 2011 10 7 5 4 7 7 2
17 Gold Coast 1 2011 2011 9 3 2 2 1 2 2Last edited by benrama; 06-09-11, 01:01 AM.Comment -
LOL, OK so that didn't format quite correctly, I've deleted the detailed breakdown of quarters and left the first table. You'll see from this some interesting stats, including that:
- West Coast have won 7 of their 1H's but only 2 of their 2H's
- Geelong have only won 5 of their 1H but all 10 of their 2H
- St Kilda have won 7 of their 1Q's
Given stat #2 above, I'd hardly call playing Geelong 1H a good play any more.
What I do think is a good play however, given that the last 5 matches between these sides have been under 19 points is the 1-24 line on both sides, which is paying:
$3.40 Geelong 1-24
$4.70 Hawthorn 1-24
Put 0.6X on Geelong 1-24 and 0.4X on Hawthorn 1-24 and you have a 1.2X win if Geelong win by less than 4 goals and 0.9X if Hawthorn win by less than 4.
I think that will be my play for this game.
As for other plays, only thing I'm locking in at this stage is:
1X Warriors -4.5
Gave my rationale in Beni's thread but basically Warriors are the better side, who play strong at home and are unaffected by SOO game 2. They will look to rebound from last weeks loss and get revenge for the early season loss to the Tigers. Tigers looked sloppy in MNF and if they are anything like that in this game I expect a 10+ point win.
Will be doing some more research tonight/tomorrow as well.Comment -
Is there a rugby league website like allthestats?Comment -
@lookingtostart, the answer is that no, the odds-makers haven't really been taking these things into account. In this weeks Geelong v Hawthorn game the 1H handicap is Geelong -8.5 while the full game handicap is -15.5. Unfortunately you can't bet on the result of just one quarter because as you can see Geelong have been monsters in the 3Q this year.
@kingsr, been looking for exactly that. Rleague.com have a primitive stats database (http://stats.rleague.com/rl/rl_index.html) but haven't found it much use. I do find their Round summary to be VERY useful however, the summary for this Round 14 is here: http://www.rleague.com/db/year/2011/...d_14_teams.php
I think their actual predictions are crap, but the factual information provided in one spot is the best I've found so far.Comment -
Couldn't bloody sleep overnight, but that has meant some time for capping in the morning to keep me busy and off the streets
For tonights AFL game I'm really liking the Saints to come out strong here. Bulldogs have lost their last 3 while Saints have won 2 of the last 3 and kept it competitive against Collingwood in the 1H before being smashed in the 2nd. Still really struggling to put together a full game, and that's my concern for them winning by more than 2 goals. I can see this game getting tight towards the end.
Based on the stats I've been looking at on allthestats, you can see that St Kilda has been a very strong 1Q team, winning 7 of the ones they've played, but have struggled to win the remaining quarters.
In the NRL, I think a depleted U20's propped-up Saints is still a good chance to win at home. Bennett is the best coach in the game, and will have his team ready to play, and I expect the players stepping up (many I've never heard of) to give 100% knowing this could be one of their only chances to impress in top grade.
I can see Titans winning this one if they play well, especially if they can improve their final execution close to the try line. I can't see them blowing St George out however.
My plays for tonight:
0.5X St Kilda -3.5 1Q @ $1.92
0.5X St Kilda -11.5 @ $1.92
1X St Kilda/St George +10.5 @ $1.96Comment -
Adding one more play for tonight:
1X Chiefs / St George +10.5 @ $1.88
And a fun action parlay for the weekend:
0.3X Chiefs / Crusaders / Swans / Pies / Cats @ $4.30Last edited by benrama; 06-09-11, 04:05 PM.Comment -
opposite of you on the crows/eagles game.
adelaide are a good team, but playing terrible footy at the moment.
w.c will be too good for them.
good luck mate.Comment -
Yea, not locked in yet on the Adelaide game, probably going to stay away to be honest. Line has moved from -9.5 to -6.5, so bookmakers are thinking this one is going to be close. Adelaide on their day and with full motivation can win this and West Coast don't travel well. Was going to play West Coast in the 1st half (opposite of initial lean) given how strong they've been in 1H's, but this just feels like a similar game to Carlton v Port last week.
As for last night, good to see a win by St Kilda, and for them put 4 full quarters together. Couldn't watch much of the game as was out on the town but was following the scores keen to see the highlights. Looks like it must have been a scrappy game.
On the betting front, would have been a great night if St George could have put together a decent 2nd half. Told myself I was going to stay away from all other NRL games this week than the Warriors game, should have stuck to it.
Nothing I'm really liking today, just going to bet on the Hawthorn v Geelong game being decided by less than 4 goals either way.
0.6X Geelong 1-24 @ $3.40
0.4X Hawthorn 1-24 @ $4.30Comment -
I'm liking this hedge play, I think it will be close too....lets cash this
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Hope you decided agAinst Adelaide 1st half!Comment