Benrama - NRL and AFL 2011

[benrama]

Better late than never to start a thread for 2011, been doing pretty well this season in NRL and AFL most weekends. Usually mix it up with a few plays in tennis and US sports too as appropriate.

If the Storm and Crusaders hadn't lost the weekend before last it would have been an epic season already. Getting burned on two 6:1 dogs in one weekend always hurts when you have them in a number of multis.

Moving on ...

Monday 23 May

Parramatta/Raonic/Bellucci @ $2.18

Late steam on Parramatta and they are now at +7.5. Gallen being out for the Sharks in an already depleted front-line is one factor but more importantly Hayne will be fired up after missing out on Origin and I expect him to make this a statement game.

Without these factors I would have liked the Sharks, even at +6.5 as they've been playing some good footy, and keeping games close against quality sides (despite losing). Eels have also had a shocking season and can't be trusted to hold a lead.

That's why I'm going with a parlay of Parramatta and Raonic/Bellucci in the French Open.

Raonic is playing Berrer who is rubbish on Clay, with a 9-17 record since 2008. Clay is not Raonics speciality but he'll still get plenty of free points on his serve, and has been challenging solid Clay players of late. He has a 9-5 record this year on Clay and always fights hard, so I like him in my parlay.

Bellucci has been in stellar clay form, and in Madrid beat Murray, Berdych and Mayer - all quality clay court players. He comes up against Golubev who's lost his last 6 on clay, and exited in the French Open in the 1st round last year. Golubev can be challenging when playing his A game but I expect a hard fought win for Bellucci - it may take more than 3 sets but I don't expect much chance of an upset.

Lean to the U38.5 also in the NRL game as despite some of the high scoring affairs the Eels/Sharks have been in, the Monday night trend is the under - only 2 games this season have gone over 38.5.

BOL all.

[Duff85]

bol sir and nice write up.

[GAMBLOR777]

good luck I like the under 39.5 and eels -3.5, got them in a multi.

[benrama]

Duff

G777 - real bad luck on that under, was looking the goods with 5 minutes to go.

Looks like I got a little too conservative with the Eels tonight , as they smashed the Sharkies. Can't trust that team this year though

Not to worry, Bellucci is looking good and I'm expecting my man Raonic to roll later on so hopefully it just means better odds on the payout.

[benrama]

Parramatta/Raonic/Bellucci @ $2.18

Current record: 0-1, -1 UNIT

Raonic shit the bed in the first round, despite playing a clay court scrubber in Berrer. Should have just stuck with the Eels and Bellucci parlay which was paying around $1.80.

Onto the next plays.

For this weekend's AFL I'm already locking in three plays:

Fremantle -10.5 @ 1.91
West Coast +34.5 @ 1.91
Fremantle/Richmond @ 1.88

All for 1 UNIT at the moment but like the Fremantle/Richmond parlay the most. Hope to add some write-ups on these later.

[benrama]

By good fortune when I went to lock in the plays above my intar-worldy-webnet was having issues, and when I went to put them in this morning Gee pointed out that Sandilands was out, which changes EVERYTHING with the Fremantle play. I still think they win, by the way, but I expected ruck dominance by the Dockers and now I'm not sure which way that will go.

On further research, I have, however, upped my West Coast play to a 2X play.

2X West Coast +34.5 @ 1.91

I'll re-post what I wrote in Gees thread:

Here's my thinking:

- Collingwood has Jolly out and Eagles ruck is in top quality form
- Eagles have dominated contested possessions this year and Pies are still without core defenders: Toovey, Brown, etc
- Consequently Eagles will be getting a lot of kicks into the 50 where the Eagles Big 3 will give Pies a lot of trouble
- Pies are struggling to put together 4 solid quarters whereas Eagles are playing hard every quarter I've seen them play

[Gee]

Good to see you start a thread buddy and good luck with it!

I'll be keeping my eye on this thread.

[GAMBLOR777]

I really want to take QLD -5.5 but I just can't!!!

Maybe I'm overthinking this too much but I think Ricky Stewart as coach is HUGE.

[benrama]

Thanks Gee, been doing a ton more research already since starting a thread - part of the reason for starting it.

G777 - I've been literally seconds away from betting on QLD-6 about five times now, just couldn't click the mouse button. Stuart is a quality coach, won for the Blues in 2005 and had a great record coaching the Kangaroos - definitely a factor here.

For me the risk for the Blues is their inexperience, and I think it'll be crucial for them to try to get a lead early or they could crumble under the pressure. For the QLD team I think their challenge is over-confidence or complacency, Meninga during the week has already said he's had to explicitly work on it.

I'm expecting this to be a close game, so what I'm now thinking of doing is parlaying Blues +10.5 with a tennis favourite at about 1.30, Wawrinka stands out at the moment. Will post my final play closer to the game.

[GAMBLOR777]

I agree with all you've said however I think if QLD covers the official spread they will cover the 10.5 aswell

Good luck in whatever you decide, I'm going to keep looking for an angle

[benrama]

What I'm covering for with +10.5 is the late 12-10, 16-12 type of game with QLD ahead, where NSW push and QLD get a late try to seal the deal. Keep in mind two of the games last year, despite how dominant QLD were, came under the 6 handicap.

There's no obvious angle on this one so whatever I bet will be small. BOL brother.

[benrama]

OK, done enough research, putting my bets on now as won't have much time before the game.

Here's what I'm playing for tonight:

1X NSW +10.5 / Wawrinka multi-bet @ 1.95
0.5X NSW/QLD U36.5 @ 1.91

Come on the Blues!

[GAMBLOR777]

I don't know why I just got a feeling...

NSW 1H +2.5
NSW +6

[benrama]

Good luck G777, I'll be cheering for you.

Beer and pizza and state of origin game 1, gonna be a good night!

[kingsr]

Oh No Betting on blues

You need a miracle, miracles hardly ever happen in origin. GL with your 'feelings' lol

[GAMBLOR777]

what were you saying about miracles kingsr?

That ain't no miracle bud. It's called beating the spread.

[GAMBLOR777]

Nice work ben cash the under and hopefully Stanlisas gets it done for you aswell

[benrama]

0.5X NSW/QLD U36.5 @ 1.91

Cash the under and waiting for the ol' Wawrinka to come through.

Glad you hit the NSW +6 G777, was a fair result NSW game back strong enough to keep that one close.

Looking at getting tickets for game 2 now, think it should be a cracker.

[kingsr]

what were you saying about miracles kingsr?

That ain't no miracle bud. It's called beating the spread.

Ummm according to my calc, you lost money, so what spread did you beat?

[GAMBLOR777]

I didn't post my units in respect of benrama's thread...

but I had 1 unit on halftime and 2 the fulltime spread.

I beat the main spread which was my initial lean.

[kingsr]

Nice well done! If that's the case we all happy

[Beniphone]

Good call on the under btw

[benrama]

1X NSW +10.5 / Wawrinka multi-bet @ 1.95

Wawrinka comes through with the goods winning 3-0.

Current record: 2-1, +0.4 UNITS

Looking over the NRL card at the moment, on first glance I'm liking:

Manly @ 1.50 parlayed with TBD, perhaps Richmond in the AFL
Bulldogs -5.5
Knights -2.5

In the AFL, I'm considering a play on Sydney, going to do some more research before locking in my card tomorrow.

[benrama]

Good call on the under btw

Thanks mate, to be honest I didn't like it much when that first try went in, but both teams played solid defense, which combined with, I thought a bit of a lack of offensive creativity as well.

Interested to see what the lines comes out at on Pinnacle for game 2.

[benrama]

Locking in two plays tonight.

NRL
1X Bulldogs/Richmond @ 1.84

Have been keen on the Bulldogs all week, but with this game being played in QLD I expect good crowd support for the Titans, and with the Bulldogs losing their prop Tolman during the week, and the line crossing into that crucial +6/-6 territory I'm more confident in taking the play in combination with Richmond who are at home to Port and should win comfortably.

AFL
0.5X Melbourne +31.5
Carlton obviously the better side, but the depleted Melbourne team fought hard against St Kilda last week, and with some better finishing could have caused the upset. Feels like a game where Carlton might let Melbourne hang around, and so I don't mind a small play on the home team to keep it close.

[benrama]

Adding three more plays:

1X West Coast +54.5 / Knights +6.5 / Richmond @ 1.98
West coast to keep it within 8 goals, Richmond to beat Port, and Newcastle to lose by less than a converted try at home to the woeful Eels - I like 1.98 odds on this happening.

0.2X West Coast/West Coast/West Coast/Collingwood @ $21 and
0.2X West Coast/West Coast/Collingwood/Collingwood at $15
Just some small fun action bets if, as I expect West Coast get off to a fast start, and Collingwood then do just enough at the end of the game to win. Basically Collingwood vs Crows version 2.

[kingsr]

Good luck Ben...I like your style of betting, i like you theory and i like the safe option.

Let's cash it! i'm on similar to you

[benrama]

Cheers kingsr, hope if you tailed you chose the Bulldogs/Richmond rather the Melbourne play

Melbourne looked a chance at HT, but by the looks of things (didn't watch the game) were completely outclassed by the end. Probably should have stayed away from the play.

On the flipside the Bulldogs crushed the Titans (though it was indeed a strange game), so if Richmond comes through tonight we still have a profitable evening.

One play I'm adding for today/tomorrow and this will probably be it for the weekend:

1X Knights/Storm @ 1.88

With Uate in, the Knights should be too good for the Eels, and I'm looking for the Storm to bounce back from their performance against Canberra at home. Yes, Storm have key players backing up from Origin, but a Sunday game gives them that extra rest. Cronk also came off the bench in Origin even if he still play some decent minutes. The Sharks have Gallen and Snowden backing up so I don't see the post-Origin advantage to either side.

Bellamy is the type of coach that doesn't put up with bad performances, and after going down to Canberra in their last home game he will have the troops extra focused for this one.

[benrama]

Really, really ugly weekend. Richmond decided to have a shocker, the Eagles had one of their worst games of the season at the same time Collingwood were in top form.

That pretty much sums it up.

Weekend recap.

1X Bulldogs/Richmond @ 1.84
0.5X Melbourne +31.5
1X West Coast +54.5 / Knights +6.5 / Richmond @ 1.98
0.2X West Coast/West Coast/West Coast/Collingwood @ $21
0.2X West Coast/West Coast/Collingwood/Collingwood at $15
2X West Coast +34.5 @ 1.91
1X Knights/Storm @ 1.88

Weekend record: 1-6, -4 UNITS
Current overall record: 3-7, -3.6 UNITS

Pretty much every time I've started a capping thread this bad start happens, some weird type of voodoo from putting your plays out in the open.

Hope to turn it around next weekend.

[benrama]

With Inglis out, this being a must win for Penrith, and with it being cold and heavy rain most of the day here in Sydney, I'm going to be playing Penrith and the Under tonight.

1X Penrith/Souths U35
1X Penrith @ $1.62

[IDunno89]

Has the rain stopped?

[benrama]

Still raining pretty steadily here in Sydney. In the pre-game on Fox sports it was still in Penrith as well. BOM shows no sign of it letting up. This is going to be one ugly mistake ridden game I'm thinking. Still like the under as my favourite play of the night.

Edited to add: under is now down to U33.5 on Pinnacle, and being juiced, so it's starting to lose all it's value.

[benrama]

1X Penrith/Souths U35
1X Penrith @ $1.62

Under looked shaky at half time but got there in the end.

2-0 for the night, +1.5 UNITS, recouping some of the weekend's losses.

Current overall record: 5-7, -2.1 UNITS

[IDunno89]

Yeh I had the over.... Was happy at half time... They got the U/O spot on really...

[benrama]

Wasn't a bad call IDunno, game could have easily gone over, especially if Souths had converted some of those chances after they scored the first try. Bit of a coin flip really.

Let's both get 'em this next weekend.