therealdealau AFL thread

[therealdealau]

Hey guys, i've been doing quite well in the AFL so i thought i'd make a thread for my plays - i normally write out my initial thoughts on Monday when the lines come out then I pick my bets on a day to day basis unless I really like a line...

I'm a big Freo Dockers supporter

Future bets
- Lance Franklin to win the Brownlow @ 41:1 (4x)

[therealdealau]

AFL ROUND 5 LEANS

St Kilda Saints -22.5

I like this play a lot, Brisbane who are just down and out after losing full forward and team carrier Jonathon Brown. This gives them a considerable hindrance in their offense as it mainly revolved around kicking deep into 50 for Brown...

They did play well vs Melbourne and only lost by 11 points but Melbourne are not the caliber of the Saints potential, when they played a stronger team they got demolished by 78 points at the hands of the Western Bulldogs.

I think the Saints are desperate for a win here after their awful start to the season, I think they can easily put the Lions away by 4 goals.

Gold Coast Suns +58.5 and Gold Coast Suns ML

Definitely a wild pick, as the Gold Coast have gotten absolutely hammered in every game this season. That been said there were signs of greatness as they were close against the Demons last week (until dying at the end), and that was without Gary Abblett. Obviously Gold Coast to win this game would be a long shot but I think Port Adelaide is one of the best teams Gold Coast could have a chance against and I think they know this, they will play hard. As for the spread i find 58.5 points just a lot of goals for Port Adelaide to kick, although they played well against the Crows last week, I saw that as more of the Crows fault than Ports brilliance.

I think the Suns will come and play hard and look to make it a competitive game.

Carlton Blues -23.5

Adelaide last week were absolutely horrible, and although they will obviously want to redeem themselves I think they are going to run into a brick wall that is Carlton at home. Carlton out class Adelaide in all areas and will be looking to get a strong win after their disappointing draw to the Bombers last week. Judd should have a field day in the mid field racking up a tonne of possessions, I dont think Adelaide can do anything about this game and I think Carlton can comfortably win this game by over 24 points.

Western Bulldogs ML + Western Bulldogs ML +7.5

Even though I am a Freo supporter historically the Bulldogs have always been a trouble for Fremantle. I think the Bulldogs will come into this game really physical and take advantage of the Dockers scrappy play. Barry Hall will kick a tonne as I dont think anyone is big enough to defend him (no more Tarrant), the key will be to make sure Sandilands doesnt dominate the tips but that will be a tough order.

This game could go either way so taking the +7.5 line is very safe incase it goes down to the last possession - this game could also go completely the opposite in what I am predicting and Freo could be amazing again but I will be fading my team.

Hawthorne Hawks ML

Again this is a tough game, but I'm going to go with Hawthorne who are looking to have another break out year with Buddy Franklin who seems to be back in form. Geelong who have surprised a lot of people and have maintained a very high level of football will be looking to have a defensive grind out and go for another win. I believe the Hawks will end Geelong in great fashion, I have no other reasons it is just a feeling!

[therealdealau]

St Kilda Saints -21.5 (4x) locked

[Domestic]

I feel sorry the Lions, but yeah I think Saints roll here.

[therealdealau]

Lets hope the Saints get back to form!

[geronimoau]

lets hope the saints pull out a big 2nd half. they'd be behind by 25 if it was against a decent team.

[rumple]

Just terrible, last time I tail a play in here.

[Alt75]

therealdealau did his homework and had the right idea with this game, great write up and thread man.

The byes have thrown a spanner in the works with fitness/conditioning and Saints were on the edge of either proving they are contenders or pretenders. As a Lions supporter I felt this was a game we would win but head said Saints 1-39. So I went with the negative betting voice in my head and took Saints -25.5 for even money, just $4 to round down my balance. I'm not sure if this live on ch7 now but Saints still look a chance to cover with a late surge.

[therealdealau]

really upset with st kilda here - honestly the line should have covered so many goals missed, but the Saints got the win they wanted...on to saturday will be looking at hitting the goldcoast line definitely

[Alt75]

I'd stay away from Saints interstate and against top 8 sides from here on.

BOL over the weekend sir.

[therealdealau]

I'd stay away from Saints interstate and against top 8 sides from here on.

BOL over the weekend sir.

agreed, however as someone that likes to analyze my own trends/take risks i can see tremendous value in bookies laying some favourable lines towards Saints backers - can also see some "upsets" with the Saints looking to get back into this season with a win streak.

[brettels]

You really pick the suns against port at home? Are you trying to make people lose money?

[jhol3990]

people are starting to trade gold coast as free money- this means they are likely to be good value in the long term. This week might not be the week but they will surprise at some time, and will start covering the line. I'd be inclined to want to see them cover the line before i started placing money on an outright win, however.

Once they have a couple of close games it could click for them on how to win a game at any time.

[therealdealau]

Goldcoast Suns +63 (4x)
Goldcoast ml (.5x)

[Restrepo]

I took the Suns point spread on Sports bet (60.5) for a couple of reasons, Abletts been copping a hiding in the media for his actions last week and the fact that Port had to lift big time last week to get over Adelaide and I think they sill struggle to get up for this match, Suns have shown improvement everytime they have taken the field this year.

I do not think they will win the game outright but I can only see port getting a 40 point win.

BOL

[jhol3990]

lloking good for the spread at the moment - although they did fade late last week.

[therealdealau]

Carlton -23.5 (2x)

[rjc]

Holy crap!

[rjc]

Suns win!!!!

[therealdealau]

wow absolute ripper take the +63 and the ML to the BANK talk now haters GO SUNS!
cheers suns backers lets hope Carlton come to play and thump the crows for a perfect day

[hawley]

what was the ML paying?

[dRavidC]

well done it was hard enough putting 1 cent on gold coast m/L let alone half a unit. well played

[brettels]

Oh my god!!! I take back what I said but bookies should be investigated LOL at port!

[therealdealau]

14:1 mate

[therealdealau]

Oh my god!!! I take back what I said but bookies should be investigated LOL at port!

glad to see you take back the harsh words, i appreciate it - no one expected gold coast to win but 63 points vs port adelaide come on i thought was free money

[Restrepo]

CASH IT! well done mate ripper last quarter

[therealdealau]

CASH IT! well done mate ripper last quarter

you too man lets get this Carlton match for a sweep COME ON BLUES!

[therealdealau]

LIVE Adelaide Crows +44.5 (2x)

[jhol3990]

wow, had my sister's wedding tonight and just got home to see the final score. AMAZING!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


well done suns

[jhol3990]

and therealdealau

[brettels]

glad to see you take back the harsh words, i appreciate it - no one expected gold coast to win but 63 points vs port adelaide come on i thought was free money

well i didn't take any lines, i thought if port cover it then everyone else will cover vs GC every game this year. so i took the over 190.5 and it paid. i didn't back port cause of the odds either. and no way would i have thought GC would have been close let alone win.

[therealdealau]

and therealdealau

[therealdealau]

North Melbourne ML (4x)

I'm rolling with North Melbourne this arvo who are taking on Richmond. The Kangaroos have had a really tough start to the season, playing twice in Perth and Collingwood in another match. These losses are not so bad and I think after their decent preseason the Kangaroos really should win here, and they will be hungry. Jack Ziebell will have a much better game than he did last week against Freo and Swallow will be looking to take off where he left last week.

Richmond have been a really streaky team who have been able to show some brilliance and some absolute shockers, I think North Melbourne will remain consistent throughout this game and if they can ride the streaky plays from Richmond they should come away with a win.

[brettels]

Great weekend being a Richmond supporter!

[rjc]

Who do we for the Anzac day medal gents? There is some good odds out there.