dRavidC's AFL 2011

[dRavidC]

AFL 8/7

Game: West Coast vs Geelong

Bet: Under 183.5 LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 34 - 25 - 1 (57.63%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 9/7

Game: Gold Coast vs Sydney

Bet: Sydney 25+ Margin WON

Sydney played probably one of their worst games this season. They kicked 3 goals in the 1st quarter, then kicked their last 3 goals in the span of 3 quarters! Their kicking for goal was dreadful and when you kick 6.14 in a full game of afl footy, you will struggle to beat even the bottom teams int he competition. The bad news for Gold Coast is that Sydney will be gearing all their frustrations and anger at them and I am expecting a blowout. With Sydney's style of play, it's hard to see then blowing anyone out so i think I'll play it a little safer with -25 rather than -36.5.

Game: Essendon vs Richmond

Bet: Essendon 1-39 Margin WON (what the heck?!? from being down 3 points at 3 quarter time to winning by 39!?!?! how is this possible? gotta admit these teams almost gave me a heart attack)

Richmond were absolutely terrible, I would even go as far as to say they played even worse than the swans did last week. Everytime Richmond had the ball, they were gonna turn the ball over in the next possession. On the other side of the see-saw is a side that played its best footy of the season to spring the biggest upset of 2011 to date - beating Geelong who had previously been undefeated. I expect them to carry on with their superb play and carry on the momentum through this game. Teams normally respond after disastrous performances, and I expect Richmond to at least keep this game within a respectable margin (i.e. less than 39)

Game: Hawthorn vs Brisbane

Bet: Hawthorn M/L (parlaying it with my above plays) WON

2011 AFL Season Record: 37 - 25 - 1 (59.68%)

[dRavidC]

Lost all my plays yesterday (0-2), won all my plays today (5-0).

patience and persistence finally paying .

[diop]

goodwork man, so true about the patience, we all go thru goodruns, bad runs. look like ur good run has begun

[dRavidC]

AFL 10/7

Game: St Kilda vs Port Adelaide

Bet: Schulz Most Goals LOSS

Just a tiny tiny tiny unit play for fun of it. If you're looking for a percentage play, then this isn't it.

2011 AFL Season Record: 37 - 26 - 1 (58.73%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 10/7

Game: St Kilda vs West Coast

Bet: St Kilda -4.5 WON

Another tough game to pick here. West Coast are probably one of the hottest teams going around beating Carlton away from home and backing it up with a win against Geelong at home. Logically, you'd think West Coast will com away from this with the four but I think otherwise. I just think that St Kilda's midfield and forward line is finally clicking and it seems that they are all finally playing as a "team" and there should be a massive urgency and motivation for the St Kilda players to win here to push for September action.

2011 AFL Season Record: 38 - 26 - 1 (59.38%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 10/7

Game: Sydney vs Fremantle

Bet: Sydney 1-39 Margin LOSS

Game: North Melbourne vs Western Bulldogs

Bet 2: North Melbourne +12.5 2nd half WON


2011 AFL Season Record: 39 - 27 - 1 (59.09%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 22/7

Game: St Kilda vs Adelaide

Bet: St Kilda 1-39 LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 39 - 28 - 1 (58.21%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 23/7

Game: North Melbourne vs Brisbane

Bet: North Melbourne -40.5 WON

If North Melbourne play half as well as they did against the Western Bulldogs,covering this number shouldn't be much of a problem. As much as i hate playing spreads that are 40+ I just can't see Brisbane mounting any sort of resistance here especially without Brown.

Game: Sydney vs Western Bulldogs

Bet: Barry Hall Most Goals WON

Barry Hall has been in superb goal-kicking form of late and the fact that he'll be playing his old club in his last ever game at Sydney should be enough to fire him up. Can't see the Swans defenders containing Hall all afternoon and add in the fact that the Swans don't really have a dominant full forward in their lineup which makes me lean further towards Barry Hall's corner.

(leans ) UPDATE: decided to play them.

Game: Gold Coast vs Collingwood

Bet: Travis Cloke Most Goals

Game: Essendon vs Carlton

Bet: Essendon +16.5


2011 AFL Season Record: 41 - 28 - 1 (59.42%)

[dRavidC]

SWEEP! have to admit i owe it to the loss i copped from the st kilda bet. it was that bet that made me lean north melbourne -40.5 rather than take my usual 1-39 bet.

[diop]

ye i use to do that, always guess margains and realise that teams win more than 39 more than i thougt so just decided to go with teh spreads each week regardless of my gut lol

[binomial]

on fire nice work.

[dRavidC]

AFL 24/7

Game: Geelong vs Richmond

Bet: Podsiadly Most Goals LOSS ("back to earth" bet...)

Steve Johnson on the interchange not playing (even better). Enough said . APPARENTLY NOT.

2011 AFL Season Record: 41 - 29 - 1 (58.57%)

[dRavidC]

call me crazy but I'm leaning towards North Melbourne tonight to actually take this game.

[benrama]

I'm leaning the same way too dRavidC, but I've had a horrendous few days of betting on MLB - fk that league - so am a bit gun shy.

Thinking I might wait to see the 1Q and make a live bet on the game.

[dRavidC]

AFL 29/7

Game: North Melbourne vs Carlton

Bet: North Melbourne +21.5

North Melbourne Carlton h2h record at ethiad for last 6 games ==> 1 (Carlt) - 5 (Nm).

[dRavidC]

AFL 30/7

Game: Geelong vs Melbourne

Bet: Geelong -45.5

Game: Gold Coast vs St Kida

Bet: St Kilda -41.5

[dRavidC]

AFL 29/7 Game: North Melbourne vs Carlton Bet: North Melbourne +21.5 WON North Melbourne Carlton h2h record at ethiad for last 6 games ==> 1 (Carlt) - 5 (Nm).

AFL 30/7 Game: Geelong vs Melbourne Bet: Geelong -45.5 WON Game: Gold Coast vs St Kida Bet: St Kilda -41.5 LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 43 - 30 - 1 (58.90%)

[dRavidC]

perfectly summed up by Cliff Bingham on twitter: "Has anyone played worse in a win than St Kilda have tonight? I say no. Dropped marks, missed targets, missed tackles galore"

[dRavidC]

AFL 31/7

Game: Collingwood vs Essendon

Bet: Cloke Most Goals LOSS

added:

Bet 2: Collingwood -29.5 2nd half (which is equivalent to taking collingwood -17.5 live full game line - VALUE!!!) WON

Bet 3: Collingwood -19.5 4th quarter WON

Game: Adelaide vs Port Adelaide

Bet: Adelaide -6.5 WON

2011 AFL Season Record: 46 - 31 - 1 (59.74%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 7/8

Game: Hawthorn vs North Melbourne

Bet: Hawthorn 1-39 Margin WON

Game: West Coast vs Richmond

Bet: Richmond +29.5 2nd half WON


2011 AFL Season Record: 48 - 31 - 1 (60.76%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 12/8

Game: St Kilda vs Collingwood

Bet: Collingwood 1-39 Margin WON

2011 AFL Season Record: 49 - 31 - 1 (61.25%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 13/8

Game: Western Bulldogs vs Essendon

Bet: Barry Hall Most Goals WON


2011 AFL Season Record: 50 - 31 - 1 (61.73%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 14/8
I posted this before kick-off for both games but for some reason my post disappeared

Game: Melbourne vs West Coast

Bet: West Coast -15.5 1st half WON

Game: RIchmond vs Sydney

Bet: Sydney 1-39 Margin LOST

2011 AFL Season Record: 51 - 32 - 1 (61.45%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 19/8

Game: Carlton vs Hawthorn

Bet: Hawthorn 1-39 Margin WON

2011 AFL Season Record: 52 - 32 - 1 (61.90%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 20/8

Game: Gold Coast vs Adelaide

Bet: Adelaide -17.5 1st half WON

Game: West Coast vs Essendon

Bet: West Coast -14.5 1st half LOSS


2011 AFL Season Record: 53 - 33 - 1 (61.63%)

[GAMBLOR777]

nice hit on adelaide dravid

keep hustlin

[benrama]

Good picks Dravid, that WC 1st half really should have hit, it was just a combination of WC inaccuracy and Essendon converting all their chances. One of the rare times where WC are more dominant in the 2H, they are still about 70% for the season for covering the 1H spread.

[dRavidC]

thanks guys. yeah unlucky there but not totally unexpected with all the bullshit that has happened this season

[dRavidC]

AFL 21/8

Game: Melbourne vs Richmond

Bet: Richmond -5.5 WON

Game: Port Adelaide vs Western Bulldogs

Bet: Barry Hall Most Goals WON (tied with butcher for most goals but still got half the payout so i'm gonna call it a win)

2011 AFL Season Record: 55 - 33 - 1 (62.5%)

[dRavidC]

AFL 27/8

Game: Hawthorn vs Western Bulldogs

Bet: Hawthorn -40.5 WON

Game: St Kilda vs North Melbourne

Bet: North Melbourne 1-39 Margin LOSS

Game: Brisbane vs West Coast

Bet: West Coast -20.5 LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 56 - 35 - 1 (61.54%)

[Brian891]

eagles chokin right now big time.

[dRavidC]

AFL 28/8

Game: Adelaide vs Richmond

Bet: Adelaide -19.5 LOSS (so so so so so stupid from my end )

2011 AFL Season Record: 56 - 36 - 1 (60.87%)

[Shifty107]

Like the Adelaide pick mate. They have been playing well lately.

[dRavidC]

AFL 2/9

Game: Collingwood vs Geelong

Bet: Travis Cloke Most Goals LOSS

Sportingbet have a 50% winner's bonus if your most goals bet on tonight's match hits.

Bet 2: Collingwood 1-39 Margin LOSS

2011 AFL Season Record: 56 - 38 - 1 (59.857%)